NA PvP Population Estimates - 8/5/2018

[Airdive.2613]

> @"Frostmane.9734" said:

> Although the picture may not be 100% clear, I think it is telling enough; the Pvp population is small and we all feel the effects of that every time we log in.

 

Not buying this in the slightest.

There is no evidence at all apart from one's "gut feeling".

[SPESHAL.9106]

Population aside....Why is it so hard to get a statistical breakdown of the various professions on the leaderboard?

[Airdive.2613]

> @"SPESHAL.9106" said:

> Population aside....Why is it so hard to get a statistical breakdown of the various professions on the leaderboard?

 

Because every player is free to play as many different professions as they want.

[SPESHAL.9106]

> @"Airdive.2613" said:

> > @"SPESHAL.9106" said:

> > Population aside....Why is it so hard to get a statistical breakdown of the various professions on the leaderboard?

>

> Because every player is free to play as many different professions as they want.

 

True, but there is a little thing called REALITY that you are totally ignoring.

 

Most of the top ranked players on the leaderboard are playing the same profession virtually 100% of the time. If you think they are just randomly picking professions and that statistics about the primary profession played by the top players is meaningless, you might want to rethink that argument.

[Airdive.2613]

> @"SPESHAL.9106" said:

> > @"Airdive.2613" said:

> > > @"SPESHAL.9106" said:

> > > Population aside....Why is it so hard to get a statistical breakdown of the various professions on the leaderboard?

> >

> > Because every player is free to play as many different professions as they want.

>

> True, but there is a little thing called REALITY that you are totally ignoring.

>

> Most of the top ranked players on the leaderboard are playing the same profession virtually 100% of the time. If you think they are just randomly picking professions and that statistics about the primary profession played by the top players is meaningless, you might want to rethink that argument.

 

It is meaningless indeed, because the resulting leaderboard will be an approximation at best, and the scores will be farther from truth the more people don't behave in your idealistic way, and you have no means to measure the error except your "gut feeling". You might want to rethink what constitutes REALITY for you.

[ArthurDent.9538]

Something interesting to note is that when you compare the leader-board ratings between seasons 11 and 12, the ratings are higher for season 12 across the board. This would indicate that the population has actually grown a small amount this season, as a higher population allows the bell-curve rating system to stretch out a bit further on each end. This likely has a decent amount to do with the current meta being much more balanced and more fun than at any time since PoF release. I don't know how it compares to other seasons other than season 5 (the first one with the real leader board) had by far the highest skill ratings on the leader board since it had by far the largest population.

[Kokoro.8437]

> @"phokus.8934" said:

>>That's exactly what you wrote. Big difference in just stating that the top 1% is rated at 1701 and above.

 

Because that is what gw2efficiency reports. No under reporting or anything. gw2efficiency is presenting what MMR the top 1 percentile of their population is above.

 

> > What aren't you understanding? You're taking numbers from a site that has to have players sign up to be in their total player count. So I don't need to show any other evidence to tell you that this is not an accurate statement to say that the population is 2,000. I really don't know how to make this any clearer so if you're not understanding this, I'll try again.

>

> As I mentioned earlier, the only thing gw2efficiency does is it provides a minimum baseline for population. Considering it is updated at least once a day, it does provide a good forecast into the secret world of game population.

 

Do you not understand ratios and sample size?

 

1% of 100 is 1

1% of 1,000 is 10.

1% of 10,000 is 100.

 

What we are looking at here is looking at is looking at the criteria of of what determines 1% in the 1,000(or whatever number of accounts are registered on gw2efficiency, assuming that the same criteria can be used to identify the 1% of the total population, then once finding the # of players that match the criterial to identify the 1% of the total population, multiplying 1% by 100 to find the number for 100% of the population.

 

So you can argue that the top 1% of accounts registered on gw2efficiency is not an accurate representation of the top 1% of gw2 NA's total population.

 

But that is really the only argument you can make. There is no under reporting.

 

 

----------

Further information;

 

Currently the top 1% in gw2efficiency is stated as 1703.

There are currently 27 players on NA rated above 1703.

 

However, the top 0.5% in gw2efficiency is stated as 1730

There are currently 9 players on NA rated above 1730.

 

Now, we can see that 0.5% is 1/2 of 1.0%. However 9 is not 1/2 of 27.

 

As such, it can be inferred that the MMR ratings for 0.5% and 1% of the NA population are probably lower than those represented by the gw2efficiency.

[SPESHAL.9106]

> @"Airdive.2613" said:

> > @"SPESHAL.9106" said:

> > > @"Airdive.2613" said:

> > > > @"SPESHAL.9106" said:

> > > > Population aside....Why is it so hard to get a statistical breakdown of the various professions on the leaderboard?

> > >

> > > Because every player is free to play as many different professions as they want.

> >

> > True, but there is a little thing called REALITY that you are totally ignoring.

> >

> > Most of the top ranked players on the leaderboard are playing the same profession virtually 100% of the time. If you think they are just randomly picking professions and that statistics about the primary profession played by the top players is meaningless, you might want to rethink that argument.

>

> It is meaningless indeed, because the resulting leaderboard will be an approximation at best, and the scores will be farther from truth the more people don't behave in your idealistic way, and you have no means to measure the error except your "gut feeling". You might want to rethink what constitutes REALITY for you.

 

How are the leaderboards an approximation? They clearly list who has scored the highest based on the rules and algorithm of the game. The leaderboard is what's used to give out rewards and titles, so what is YOUR reality that is based on less "approximation"????

 

Just so we're clear...I'm saying that the highest ranked players primarily play one profession, and you're saying that's not true and/or meaningless to know.

 

Glad people can now clearly see the difference in our two arguments and realities.

[morrolan.9608]

> @"Airdive.2613" said:

> Implying the number of GW2efficiency accounts even begins to come close to the number of GW2 accounts.

 

But GW2 efficiency is not being used for total player count but the percentage above 1701.

[Airdive.2613]

> @"morrolan.9608" said:

> > @"Airdive.2613" said:

> > Implying the number of GW2efficiency accounts even begins to come close to the number of GW2 accounts.

>

> But GW2 efficiency is not being used for total player count but the percentage above 1701.

 

True.

I tried to explain myself clearer in my second message, after I had some time to think and some others' opinions to read.

[BadMed.3846]

Is it time for GW3 then?

I say yes. Why?

Classes like Elementalists and Mesmers are poorly designed.

Balance can't really be achieved.

Expansions are not really getting that much hype.

6 years have gone by. We've had a great game overall. Let's be honest, we spent time on this game and that's true value for money.

New mechanics and classes warrant new game to overhaul things.

 

Anet team...

Listening?

[Liza.2758]

I wish they do something with Decay.

 

there are some weeks that i'm too busy to play the game .. and Decay hits really hard.

 

the other ( esport game ) decay is not even as hard as gw2 lmao and Gw2 is no longer esport ......