Adelbern's Directive

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

> @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > @"Konig Des Todes.2086" said:

> > > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > > The village next to the lake and the White Mantle ruins just below it are human settlements. There are citizens and children living in the village.

> >

> > Seraph's Landing and Demetra are centuries old. Seraph's Landing - like Portia's burned village - existed in 800 BE during Mad King Thorn's reign. They're not colonizing that area, they've _colonized_. That's a **HUGE** difference.

>

> It's just my understanding that yes, the village is old, perhaps was in ruin and inhabited. However, it seems to me that they are starting a new in that location. I doubt that those people stayed there all these time even when the centaurs are laying siege of the place.

 

There are civilians there labeled "Refugee". You really think that refugees are cultivating new lands? or that they would establish a civilian settlement in the middle of a warzone?

 

No one but the desperate and the idiotic would establish a civilian settlement in the heart of enemy territory. And despite the idiot ball juggling of Season 1, Krytans are not idiots.

 

> @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > They're not forcing anyone out of that area now - and there's no clear indication they _did_ when they established those settlements.

>

> I don't know about that. The Seraph has this comment;

> "Now that the dock at the Lake Doric has been repaired, we're able to reinforce our position here. We can finally make more focused efforts at **driving the centaurs back**."

 

That line actually counters your argument. Driving the centaurs **back**. [Lieutenant Pickins](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lieutenant_Pickins) also talks about how the centaurs are trying to take Seraph's Landing. This shows that Harathi Hinterlands has been *human territory*, not centaur territory, until recently.

 

That's a bit different from invading centaur territory to establish new settlements.

 

> @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > The fact that they don't have a "growing human population" despite your continued claims. Humanity are on the decline, and have been since the days of GW1 (the events of GW1 were the "beginning of the end for humanity on Tyria (world)").

>

> I'm talking about refugees, not necessarily birth rate.

> Wiki has this bit;

> "Kryta, united under Queen Salma in 1088 AE, became the last stable, reasonable human nation and refugees fled to it from all of the troubled corners of the three continents. The new capital Divinity's Reach became the center of the human universe and their last hope to recover their feet even as it continues to struggle against centaurs and bandits."

>

> I doubt that this is still accurate seeing that the Free City of Amnoon is stable and more reasonable that the Krytan rule. All I'm saying is that, during the development of the Harathi, this is the scenario. Humans fled from centaurs and the Seraph's effort is to take back the refugee's homeland in Harathi.

 

Amnoon isn't a nation, firstly. Secondly, the refugees are coming from the very area that you claim humanity is invading.

 

[Nightguard Beach](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Nightguard_Beach) is proof of that. Where do you think those refugees are coming from?

 

> @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> That's why my question; "Are they just going to stop and tell the centaurs to stop messing with them?"

>

> To me, there's an ulterior motive to take the Harathi, or maybe part of it, so those who are displaced can get back. I'm just suspicious on why the Seraph is pushing too far in if not to claim the land.

 

There is no ulterior motive. Harathi Hinterlands *was already taken*. It was human territory until very recently.

 

Is it really claiming the land if those who lived there all their life are still alive? If anyone's claiming land, its the centaurs not humans.

 

> @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> The edge is in North Gendaran. In Harathi, one of the renown heart recognizes the area as centaur homeland too. Whether or not its an error, that's what it is.

 

Well we can say with 10,000% certainty that area was not centaur controlled in GW1. We go there ourselves. We have century-old villages on the other side of the territory. That would definitely be a writer's error (and I'd like to see it), but it would be "centaur territory" not "centaur homeland".

 

> @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> It seems that village was abandoned for some time and then was recently revitalized when the Seraph pushing back. As I mentioned above, I doubt these people stayed in this location during the centaur siege at the same time cut off from supply due to what's happening in Lake Doric. The Seraph brought these people there.

 

"What's happening in Lake Doric" technically doesn't occur for another 5 years for the events of "what's happening in Harathi Hinterlands". Lake Doric was peaceful (for the most part) until the White Mantle assault in 1330 AE. Harathi Hinterland events are taking place in 1325 AE.

 

And again, aforementioned refugees fleeing *into* Seraph's Landing and Nightguard Beach *away from the centaur sieges*. So you're right, villagers are not remaining for the siege - many fled. But some did remain, such as the innkeepers and other few civilians seen.

[Athrenn.9468]

> @"Konig Des Todes.2086" said:

> Seraph's Landing and Demetra are centuries old. Seraph's Landing - like Portia's burned village - existed in 800 BE during Mad King Thorn's reign.

 

Did you mean to write A.E.? I believe his reign ended in 825 A.E. so that would be the early 9th-century A.E.

[draxynnic.3719]

> @Athrenn.9468 said:

> > @draxynnic.3719 said:

> > First: Joko doesn't care about anyone's interests or well-being beyond his own, from all we've seen. He's fairly pragmatic for an undead ruler from what we've seen in that he keeps the living, well, alive, but he shows no inkling of feeling responsible to improving or even maintaining the standards of living of his subjects. In fact, the basis of his power comes from denying them their ability to grow the food they need to live, thereby making them totally dependent on him.

>

> See my earlier post for evidence of the following:

>

> * Palawa Joko's rule has lasted from 1175-Present—that's 155 years, longer than Canada has been a country. He did that by establishing a power base of people to support him. How does one cultivate a stable base of power for 155 years? By looking after their interests. Conquering a country is a team effort; no one can do it on their own. They need loyal supporters and no one stays loyal for long unless the relationship is rewarding beyond fear alone.

 

Palawa Joko's power base relies on two things:

 

1) His Awakened army, which under normal circumstances are completely loyal to him.

2) His control over the food supply.

 

He makes use of his propaganda engine because it's _convenient_ to limit the amount of rebellion, but he's not ruling on behalf of the people of Elona. He's ruling on behalf of himself.

 

> * No effort to maintain the standards of living of his subjects? See your previous post where I showed you in-game where a visible measure of their standard of living could be found and you accepted it. _"So? People having enough to eat does not change that they're living under a tyrant."_ Denying them their ability to grow the food they need? If the village of Purity is an indication of what Vabbi's other villages look like them it looks like they have more than enough food to supply not only themselves but a rich variety ranging from suckling pig to pomegranates. That doesn't seem like denying them of food to me, and you can't use Kourna or Istan as examples when we don't even have a shred of evidence in-game for what their current living conditions are.

 

Like I've said: Purity (and the Riverlands) are Joko's breadbasket.

 

That's why it's so important that supplies be sent south. Because of Joko's actions, Kourna and Vabbi are _entirely_ dependent on food and water being sent south from Purity and the Riverlands in order to survive. That's how Joko seized control in the first place, and he knows that there will be rebellions if the flow of food stops - that's how he gained control in the first place, after all.

 

Naturally, the people living close to where the food is grown are going to be better off - in terms of diet - than the people who are at the end of a supply chain that spans the Desolation (remembering, mind you, that there's plenty of Desolation still south of the Bone Palace).

>

> > So the argument that his actions are justified for maintaining the nation fall into a deep hole. He maintains only himself.

>

> And his rule over Elona for 155 years. As I stated above, he's been in charge longer than Canada has been a country and that requires a strong base of power. Conquering a country is a team effort and no ruler can do it without looking out for the interests of his loyal followers so that they continue to be loyal.

 

Maintaining rulership does not require giving a flying kitten about the wellbeing of your people above the bare minimum required to avoid chronic rebellion... and even then, it's often achieved by maintaining the loyalty of a warrior class that can put down any revolution.

 

Joko has that in the Awakened, and the ability to deny food to any revolution that occurs south of Purity. His continued control is not, in any way, evidence of benevolence.

>

> > Second: As I noted above, the United Nations has not had to deal with a situation where every single member of a given population has the power to take on an army by themselves (in fact, when dealing with normal human populations, the safe assumption is that attempting to wipe out a population _requires deliberate targeting of noncombatants among that population_). Nor has it had to deal with a situation where there are only a handful of people remaining in a particular cultural or ethnic group and _every one remaining_ is a war criminal. I'm pretty sure that in those circumstances the United Nations would have no problem with locking them up (or executing them if the United Nations had capital punishment), even if this results in the extinction of that group.

>

> I'm honestly not sure what to make of this statement. The United Nations don't exist in Tyria, nor anything even resembling them.

 

Sure they don't, but it puts into context part of the distinction between what happened to the mursaat and genocides against more normal populations.

>

> > Third (and probably most important): As Squee noted, you did open with "you shouldn't interfere in someone else's domains because they might retaliate and because bringing down the existing government could make things worse for the people living there".

> >

> > Your own Machiavellian philosophy would say that the governments of Tyria should not give a polished kitten for the circumstances of the people of Elona, and should only worry about what is good for themselves or their people.

>

> Let's take a look at what I actually said: _Secondly, I think it's a pretty shady business practice for the Tyrian Explorer Society to act as an invasive colonial entity by funding expeditions to declare ownership of foreign soil while acting under the authority of the five major nations of the northern continent. That could be taken as an inadvertent act of war which the countries may not agree with in the case of Elona where the claiming mission includes open hostilities with the Vabbian army while on their own soil._

>

> * Is it a shady business practice? Yes, and it's just as morally dubious as any effort to colonize land in a foreign country where another sovereign ruler is recognized and accepted.

 

And your continued reliance on Machiavellian philosophy to justify what Joko is saying suggests that you don't consider "shady" or "morally dubious" to be bad things. Moving on...

 

> * Will declaring pre-emptive war improve the conditions for one's own subjects? Not if history repeats itself and it becomes a long, drawn out and bloody affair that could take over 40 years. The Guild Initiative operates with the public endorsement of six major nations including Lion's Arch which opens the door to accusations of colonialism that the governments cannot deny without withdrawing their endorsements. Aside from the part where guild halls never seem to factor into the narrative, that would be a very foolish loose end to leave hanging.

 

A long, drawn out, and bloody affair which keeps the fighting out of your own territory is better than falling in a short and bloody surprise attack on your own cities. A strategy involving seizing defensible strategic locations which can be used to stir up and support local resistance forces can be a fairly effective way of keeping someone occupied without requiring the military resources or the death toll of a conventional war. And the aftermath of Path of Fire probably is the best opportunity to attempt to destabilise and topple Joko's regime: his military (and the people's belief in his military's invincibility) has been weakened by Kralkatorrik and the Forged, the being who was apparently his primary military commander was killed and then impersonated by the PC (although it's possible Iberu will return as Awakened), and it's possible that the Sunspears are about to become resurgent. If there's any opportunity to topple Joko, or at least keep him on the back foot, its now.

 

> * We're not talking about _my_ moral philosophies; this is a discussion of how politics and military conquest work in a realistic setting (like real life) and what history can teach us about worldbuilding.

 

Except, it has to be said, Machiavelli's book was considered to be ruthlessly pragmatic by the standards of the day. Moral standards of the time weren't as developed as they are today, but there are some things that honourable rulers were supposed to do (or not do) even if it was advantageous for them in the short term.

 

Furthermore, it's worth noting that Guild Wars is only loosely based on history. Like many fantasies, the protagonist nations are generally more enlightened when it comes to moral values than their historical counterparts were.

>

> > What we know of Joko's history indicates that his usual approach is to launch surprise attacks that give his victims little opportunity to resist, even after first offering the hand of friendship. Therefore, it is a reasonable position to take that Joko is simply to dangerous to be left alone to plot undisturbed, and thereby efforts to destabilise his rule and keep his attention on his own territory are justified under Machiavellian philosophy.

>

> Is endorsing the colonization of minor military targets using an organization with open ties to the six governments of continental Tyria supposed to be an effective strategy for mitigating Elona as a threat? We all know that our guild halls are under no threat because that's outside of game mechanics, but within the logic of the setting it would be a terrible idea. Provoking a dangerous predator is stupid; killing them in their sleep while they have yet to recognize you as a threat is smart hunting.

 

Ah, but do you go to sleep in the predator's hunting territory? The usual approach for a maneating predator near a human population in the real world is generally to take it out ASAP - catching it when asleep is an added bonus, but you don't ignore it until it's asleep. And what if the beast is already provoked, as Joko might be by the actions of the PC (leaving Joko in Balthazar's prison, and then usurping control of his army?).

 

On top of that, I don't think there's any practical way of one-shotting Joko's army short of destroying or reimprisoning Joko himself, and even then the empire seems to continue going without him, at least as long as his generals can continue to tell themselves that Joko is just away on business. Sure, catching the proverbial predator napping is ideal, but waiting until the perfect opportunity might allow the predator to find the perfect opportunity to devour you first.

[Aaron Ansari.1604]

> @Athrenn.9468 said:

 

> In Tyria, you have kings and queens who hold absolute authority over their subjects. There is no international court of law to hold political leaders accountable for their actions because, in Tyria, there has been no such movement to establish a League of Nations.

 

I agree... but this same fact is also what rules out the diplomatic pressure that you suggested at the bottom of the first page. I'm hardly an expert, but from what I know, that 'works' in our modern world largely due to three factors:

 

A.) The U.N., and more generally the massive number of states, enabling the mobilization of truly massive coalitions (on the rare occasions that all the key players can agree to the same game plan, and stick to it). In Tyria as we know it, civilization is made up of ~nine states, and that's using the term very, very loosely. That doesn't enable nearly as much weight to be put behind the means of pressure, which brings us to;

 

B.) Globalization and economic co-dependence. There's a reason that sanctions are always the go-to diplomatic bludgeon. It's a very, very rare nation in this day and age that would be able to sustain it's current quality of life without the web of support provided by other nations. But when they can, or more often, when they simply don't care? Look at North Korea. Look at Russia. Look at... Joko. As far as we can tell, he's happily gone on without any foreign trade for a century and a half. There's no disrupting of trade to threaten him with, and he's unlikely to enter into such agreements and then proceed to become so dependent on them that they become potential leverage. First off, allowing foreign trade almost inevitably allows foreign influence, which is not at all in his interests, and secondly, looking at those palaces in Vabbi? It's very hard to think of anything Kryta, the Legions, and the rest could possibly offer him that he'd both want and be unable to produce for himself.

 

C.) Modern nations are largely democracies (and even when they aren't, the information age is making them increasingly susceptible to public opinion). It's very, _very_ difficult to convince a democratic nation to head into a war that its citizens will have to bear the brunt of. On top of that, a 'total war' like we used to engage in, combined with modern weaponry, could just about flatten any nation in the world if there's a large enough coalition on the other side. That makes the _threat_ of war a potent force... but it's far from clear that the existing nations of Tyria could rally such a threat against Joko. They have too many other problems, the distance and terrain are too great a barrier, and under ideal circumstances, the living citizens of Joko's empire would never lose a drop of blood while the Awakened fight in the desert and hold the Bone Wall. Give Joko time to regroup by making diplomatic overtures, and the threat of war loses any power.

 

So, compared to modern Earth, we're looking at light weight being thrown behind ineffective means. If that's all diplomacy can amount to, then the long shot of working through independent proxies and local insurgencies still comes out ahead... especially if one of those proxies has two dragons and a god on his scoresheet.

[draxynnic.3719]

> @"Aaron Ansari.1604" said:

> They have too many other problems, the distance and terrain are too great a barrier, and under ideal circumstances, the living citizens of Joko's empire would never lose a drop of blood while the Awakened fight in the desert and hold the Bone Wall.

 

This might not be so ideal for Joko. To me, the Bone Wall feels more like the Berlin Wall than the Maginot Line. It's actually fairly poorly positioned as a defense against invasion: an attacker could seize the Elon Riverlands, and therefor half of Joko's breadbasket, before reaching the Wall. So this hypothetical situation could actually threaten Joko: if the food isn't flowing south, there's the risk of sparking rebellion in Kourna or even Vabbi. The purpose of the Wall appears to be political rather than military: it places a physical barrier between the punitive conditions of the Exiles and the citizens.

 

It's possible that part of the logic is that splitting the 'breadbasket' makes it harder for any one foe to claim the whole breadbasket in one stroke.

 

If the nations of Tyria were to fight a 'total war' against Joko, harming the living populace would probably not be among their objectives. The primary military objectives would be to capture Joko himself and/or to destroy the Awakened as a military force. Supporting objectives might be provoking a rebellion among the civilian populace and/or denying the Awakened the ability to draw new "recruits" from the populace. The thing is that when push comes to shove, Joko does not need the living populace, and losing it would not cripple him in the short term. It's convenient for him to have a constant supply of the dead for Awakening, but in a war scenario, any time he controls the battlefield after an engagement is an opportunity to create more Awakened - and the information we have indicates that newly created Awakened are normally completely under Joko's control.

 

This actually makes me wonder how practical it would be to attack the dam. It's probably somewhere north of Vabbi, which probably puts it close to the edge of Joko's domain.

[Aaron Ansari.1604]

> @draxynnic.3719 said:

 

> So this hypothetical situation could actually threaten Joko: if the food isn't flowing south, there's the risk of sparking rebellion in Kourna or even Vabbi. The purpose of the Wall appears to be political rather than military: it places a physical barrier between the punitive conditions of the Exiles and the citizens.

 

Perhaps I've missed something that you've seen, but is it stated that Kourna is still being starved out? We know that a great deal of the Elon is still flowing west through the desert, but we also see water flowing down its original bed south through Vabbi as well. That water is quite shallow, but it's hard to say whether that's by design or a result of being squarely in the path of the Brand.

 

The drought conditions always struck me as the kind of brutality that's useful in taking over a country, but undesirable once you're actually in power. The threat of taking the water again could still keep the Kournans in line, at least until generations of rewriting the culture kicks in, but if he continues to hold them at the brink of death, they'll have every reason to continue fighting. It's like you've said earlier: at least a minimum of comfort is required to keep the people from rising up, and food security is very close to the top of that list.

 

Also, even bearing in mind that ANet plays fast and loose with this kind of thing, it's hard to imagine they expect us to believe two farming villages feed a nation-continent by themselves.

 

> If the nations of Tyria were to fight a 'total war' against Joko, harming the living populace would probably not be among their objectives. The primary military objectives would be to capture Joko himself and/or to destroy the Awakened as a military force. Supporting objectives might be provoking a rebellion among the civilian populace and/or denying the Awakened the ability to draw new "recruits" from the populace. The thing is that when push comes to shove, Joko does not need the living populace, and losing it would not cripple him in the short term. It's convenient for him to have a constant supply of the dead for Awakening, but in a war scenario, any time he controls the battlefield after an engagement is an opportunity to create more Awakened - and the information we have indicates that newly created Awakened are normally completely under Joko's control.

 

I'd absolutely agree there, at least in terms of pure practicality. Joko does seem to be ruling more out of a desire to flaunt his superiority and be adored than power for power's sake, and that does require a living populace, but if push comes to shove the living are expendable.

 

What I was getting at is that, with so much of Joko's kingdom north of the truly settled regions, Elona proper doesn't face the specter of collateral damage (and knowing the charr, there would be dead civilians even in a best-case scenario) unless things go so badly that he's basically lost anyway. Getting to Vabbi means conquering everything through to the Bone Palace, and it's a safe bet he'd put his best effort into keeping anyone from _that_ symbolic victory.

[draxynnic.3719]

> @"Aaron Ansari.1604" said:

> > @draxynnic.3719 said:

>

> > So this hypothetical situation could actually threaten Joko: if the food isn't flowing south, there's the risk of sparking rebellion in Kourna or even Vabbi. The purpose of the Wall appears to be political rather than military: it places a physical barrier between the punitive conditions of the Exiles and the citizens.

>

> Perhaps I've missed something that you've seen, but is it stated that Kourna is still being starved out? We know that a great deal of the Elon is still flowing west through the desert, but we also see water flowing down its original bed south through Vabbi as well. That water is quite shallow, but it's hard to say whether that's by design or a result of being squarely in the path of the Brand.

>

> The drought conditions always struck me as the kind of brutality that's useful in taking over a country, but undesirable once you're actually in power. The threat of taking the water again could still keep the Kournans in line, at least until generations of rewriting the culture kicks in, but if he continues to hold them at the brink of death, they'll have every reason to continue fighting. It's like you've said earlier: at least a minimum of comfort is required to keep the people from rising up, and food security is very close to the top of that list.

>

> Also, even bearing in mind that ANet plays fast and loose with this kind of thing, it's hard to imagine they expect us to believe two farming villages feed a nation-continent by themselves.

 

Well, ArenaNet DOES play fast and loose with this sort of thing. If you base it on the visible farms, none of the nations of Tyria would be able to feed themselves. It's likely that the actual farming area is greater than we're shown. Another consideration is that, between the fighting with the takeover and migration to Purity (and any other towns along the Elon's new banks), the population of Kourna may have decreased.

 

The southern flow of the Elon does appear to be present as you note, but comparing between the notes there is noticeably less than there was in GW1. I'd guess that there's enough for drinking water, but not enough to maintain the level of agriculture that used to be present in Mahnkelon, Arkjok, and Dejarin. There's probably some there, but not enough for Kourna to feed itself - the threat that Joko holds over the heads of the Kournans is that if they don't behave, he can cut off the food shipments. That said shipments are still important is shown in the urgency of sending shipments south from Purity and the Riverlands.

 

(Which is one of the ironies of the "defend the exiles from tax collectors" events - the taxes are in the form of food, and preventing that food from being collected and sent south may well be snatching it from the mouths of Kournan children.)

>

> > If the nations of Tyria were to fight a 'total war' against Joko, harming the living populace would probably not be among their objectives. The primary military objectives would be to capture Joko himself and/or to destroy the Awakened as a military force. Supporting objectives might be provoking a rebellion among the civilian populace and/or denying the Awakened the ability to draw new "recruits" from the populace. The thing is that when push comes to shove, Joko does not need the living populace, and losing it would not cripple him in the short term. It's convenient for him to have a constant supply of the dead for Awakening, but in a war scenario, any time he controls the battlefield after an engagement is an opportunity to create more Awakened - and the information we have indicates that newly created Awakened are normally completely under Joko's control.

>

> I'd absolutely agree there, at least in terms of pure practicality. Joko does seem to be ruling more out of a desire to flaunt his superiority and be adored than power for power's sake, and that does require a living populace, but if push comes to shove the living are expendable.

>

> What I was getting at is that, with so much of Joko's kingdom north of the truly settled regions, Elona proper doesn't face the specter of collateral damage (and knowing the charr, there would be dead civilians even in a best-case scenario) unless things go so badly that he's basically lost anyway. Getting to Vabbi means conquering everything through to the Bone Palace, and it's a safe bet he'd put his best effort into keeping anyone from _that_ symbolic victory.

 

True enough. Joko's strategic position is one that's largely based on the idea of a threat coming from within Elona, or at least from the south. He's very vulnerable to an attack from the north - lots of strategic targets there and not much strategic depth. Mind you, he still has the benefit of the sulfurous wastes of the Desolation: IIRC, getting a living army from Purity to the Bone Palace requires crossing narrow bridges that would be easy for the Awakened to knock out.

 

That said, taking the Bone Palace might not be a crippling blow - I think it has been suggested somewhere that the Bone Palace has become more of an administrative or seasonal capital, and Joko's seat of power has moved elsewhere. Jahai could well be one possibility: an irony Joko would probably appreciate, and somewhere which can't be reached easily from enemies outside of Elona from any direction. Given his claim to be of the Primeval Dynasty, it wouldn't surprise me if the real prize is Fahrunar.

 

It would still be a major symbolic victory/loss, though.

[Athrenn.9468]

> @"Aaron Ansari.1604" said:

> > @Athrenn.9468 said:

>

> > In Tyria, you have kings and queens who hold absolute authority over their subjects. There is no international court of law to hold political leaders accountable for their actions because, in Tyria, there has been no such movement to establish a League of Nations.

>

> I agree... but this same fact is also what rules out the diplomatic pressure that you suggested at the bottom of the first page. I'm hardly an expert, but from what I know, that 'works' in our modern world largely due to three factors:

>

> A.) The U.N., and more generally the massive number of states, enabling the mobilization of truly massive coalitions (on the rare occasions that all the key players can agree to the same game plan, and stick to it). In Tyria as we know it, civilization is made up of ~nine states, and that's using the term very, very loosely. That doesn't enable nearly as much weight to be put behind the means of pressure, which brings us to;

>

> B.) Globalization and economic co-dependence. There's a reason that sanctions are always the go-to diplomatic bludgeon. It's a very, very rare nation in this day and age that would be able to sustain it's current quality of life without the web of support provided by other nations. But when they can, or more often, when they simply don't care? Look at North Korea. Look at Russia. Look at... Joko. As far as we can tell, he's happily gone on without any foreign trade for a century and a half. There's no disrupting of trade to threaten him with, and he's unlikely to enter into such agreements and then proceed to become so dependent on them that they become potential leverage. First off, allowing foreign trade almost inevitably allows foreign influence, which is not at all in his interests, and secondly, looking at those palaces in Vabbi? It's very hard to think of anything Kryta, the Legions, and the rest could possibly offer him that he'd both want and be unable to produce for himself.

>

> C.) Modern nations are largely democracies (and even when they aren't, the information age is making them increasingly susceptible to public opinion). It's very, _very_ difficult to convince a democratic nation to head into a war that its citizens will have to bear the brunt of. On top of that, a 'total war' like we used to engage in, combined with modern weaponry, could just about flatten any nation in the world if there's a large enough coalition on the other side. That makes the _threat_ of war a potent force... but it's far from clear that the existing nations of Tyria could rally such a threat against Joko. They have too many other problems, the distance and terrain are too great a barrier, and under ideal circumstances, the living citizens of Joko's empire would never lose a drop of blood while the Awakened fight in the desert and hold the Bone Wall. Give Joko time to regroup by making diplomatic overtures, and the threat of war loses any power.

>

> So, compared to modern Earth, we're looking at light weight being thrown behind ineffective means. If that's all diplomacy can amount to, then the long shot of working through independent proxies and local insurgencies still comes out ahead... especially if one of those proxies has two dragons and a god on his scoresheet.

 

Those are three good points to consider, I think. The lack of globalization makes collective action through economic sanctions impossible. Then there's the lack of global telecommunication which would also affect the spread of information.

 

Of course, a lot of that depends on what you make of the existence of waypoints in the Crystal Desert (and no doubt all of Elona once those maps open up). Are we going to take all of those waypoints as canon? If so, that's a whole lot of globalization right there. An international transportation network all owned, controlled, and maintained by the Rata Sum Transit Authority. It's hard to be an isolated community in a world where the asura can install a waypoint wherever leylines run and charge you a shiny silver coin for a trip across the globe. Then there's radio communication that can apparently send signals all the way from Rata Novus to Elona. Is Tyria entering an age of globalization? Maybe it is. All of that depends on whether the waypoint network you see in-game is 100% canon.

[Torolan.5816]

Even in a globalized world sanctions can only contain regimes, not defeat them.

 

It were not sanctions that ended the DDR for example. It was the fall of an empire, economical incompetence and a police state digging too deep and too hard in the privacy of people. And it is not really free of hate and a place of communication either today, just look at the voting polls of the last Bundestag. And that is a country deep in the heart of western europe.

 

Ousting an undead roler through sanctions is just wishful thinking in my opinion:

"Do not fear my beloved citizens! I, Palawa Joko, will elevate all who are willing into the rank of the chose awakened! You will never feel thirst or hunger again, and your children will honor your glory while you guard the fatherland for all of eternity! Hail you, sons and daughters of the fatherland!"

[Sir Vincent III.1286]

> @"Konig Des Todes.2086" said:

> > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > > @"Konig Des Todes.2086" said:

> > > > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > > > The village next to the lake and the White Mantle ruins just below it are human settlements. There are citizens and children living in the village.

> > >

> > > Seraph's Landing and Demetra are centuries old. Seraph's Landing - like Portia's burned village - existed in 800 BE during Mad King Thorn's reign. They're not colonizing that area, they've _colonized_. That's a **HUGE** difference.

> >

> > It's just my understanding that yes, the village is old, perhaps was in ruin and inhabited. However, it seems to me that they are starting a new in that location. I doubt that those people stayed there all these time even when the centaurs are laying siege of the place.

>

> There are civilians there labeled "Refugee". You really think that refugees are cultivating new lands? or that they would establish a civilian settlement in the middle of a warzone?

>

> No one but the desperate and the idiotic would establish a civilian settlement in the heart of enemy territory. And despite the idiot ball juggling of Season 1, Krytans are not idiots.

>

> > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > > They're not forcing anyone out of that area now - and there's no clear indication they _did_ when they established those settlements.

> >

> > I don't know about that. The Seraph has this comment;

> > "Now that the dock at the Lake Doric has been repaired, we're able to reinforce our position here. We can finally make more focused efforts at **driving the centaurs back**."

>

> That line actually counters your argument. Driving the centaurs **back**. [Lieutenant Pickins](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lieutenant_Pickins) also talks about how the centaurs are trying to take Seraph's Landing. This shows that Harathi Hinterlands has been *human territory*, not centaur territory, until recently.

>

> That's a bit different from invading centaur territory to establish new settlements.

>

> > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > > The fact that they don't have a "growing human population" despite your continued claims. Humanity are on the decline, and have been since the days of GW1 (the events of GW1 were the "beginning of the end for humanity on Tyria (world)").

> >

> > I'm talking about refugees, not necessarily birth rate.

> > Wiki has this bit;

> > "Kryta, united under Queen Salma in 1088 AE, became the last stable, reasonable human nation and refugees fled to it from all of the troubled corners of the three continents. The new capital Divinity's Reach became the center of the human universe and their last hope to recover their feet even as it continues to struggle against centaurs and bandits."

> >

> > I doubt that this is still accurate seeing that the Free City of Amnoon is stable and more reasonable that the Krytan rule. All I'm saying is that, during the development of the Harathi, this is the scenario. Humans fled from centaurs and the Seraph's effort is to take back the refugee's homeland in Harathi.

>

> Amnoon isn't a nation, firstly. Secondly, the refugees are coming from the very area that you claim humanity is invading.

>

> [Nightguard Beach](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Nightguard_Beach) is proof of that. Where do you think those refugees are coming from?

>

> > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > That's why my question; "Are they just going to stop and tell the centaurs to stop messing with them?"

> >

> > To me, there's an ulterior motive to take the Harathi, or maybe part of it, so those who are displaced can get back. I'm just suspicious on why the Seraph is pushing too far in if not to claim the land.

>

> There is no ulterior motive. Harathi Hinterlands *was already taken*. It was human territory until very recently.

>

> Is it really claiming the land if those who lived there all their life are still alive? If anyone's claiming land, its the centaurs not humans.

>

> > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > The edge is in North Gendaran. In Harathi, one of the renown heart recognizes the area as centaur homeland too. Whether or not its an error, that's what it is.

>

> Well we can say with 10,000% certainty that area was not centaur controlled in GW1. We go there ourselves. We have century-old villages on the other side of the territory. That would definitely be a writer's error (and I'd like to see it), but it would be "centaur territory" not "centaur homeland".

>

> > @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> > It seems that village was abandoned for some time and then was recently revitalized when the Seraph pushing back. As I mentioned above, I doubt these people stayed in this location during the centaur siege at the same time cut off from supply due to what's happening in Lake Doric. The Seraph brought these people there.

>

> "What's happening in Lake Doric" technically doesn't occur for another 5 years for the events of "what's happening in Harathi Hinterlands". Lake Doric was peaceful (for the most part) until the White Mantle assault in 1330 AE. Harathi Hinterland events are taking place in 1325 AE.

>

> And again, aforementioned refugees fleeing *into* Seraph's Landing and Nightguard Beach *away from the centaur sieges*. So you're right, villagers are not remaining for the siege - many fled. But some did remain, such as the innkeepers and other few civilians seen.

 

The thing about war is when the invading army gained control a part of the land it becomes their land. Thus even if the humans claim that they are simple retaking what's theirs, the centaurs view it as an invasion of their land. When the writer used "centaur homeland" it implies that the centaur has made the place their home even if the humans disagree with it. Before King Thorn made a claim of the land, it was inhabited by the centaurs, thus the centaur has the rightful claim of the Harathi and that they are retaking their land.

 

However, as much as I like to continue this discussion, I'm starting not to like the tone of the replies, thus I'll leave it as is.

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

> @"Sir Vincent III.1286" said:

> The thing about war is when the invading army gained control a part of the land it becomes their land. Thus even if the humans claim that they are simple retaking what's theirs, the centaurs view it as an invasion of their land. When the writer used "centaur homeland" it implies that the centaur has made the place their home even if the humans disagree with it. Before King Thorn made a claim of the land, it was inhabited by the centaurs, thus the centaur has the rightful claim of the Harathi and that they are retaking their land.

>

> However, as much as I like to continue this discussion, I'm starting not to like the tone of the replies, thus I'll leave it as is.

 

It becomes "their land" but not their *home*land. That's a massive difference, as homeland means place of origin, where they live, etc. This is why I've been saying "centaur territory" in all my past posts - Harathi Hinterlands has become, in large, centaur territory - but only very recently. And as Aaron had pointed out - and I'm sure you could see for yourself - Harathi Hinterlands only has war camps. Even the greatest centaur settlement there is just called a camp: [War King's Greatcamp](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/War_King%27s_Greatcamp).

 

Either way, this does not make your original statements that humans are trying to invade centaur homelands to expand because of losing land accurate. They had settled those lands, centuries ago, and only recently lost them. They are not currently trying to resettle those lands which are the front lines of a war - no one does that, not even the centaurs are.

 

We actually do not know who inhabited the land before Kryta settled there - Thorn didn't settle that land, by the way. Those villages were established *by the time of his rule*. He did escalate the centaur conflict during his lifetime, but as far as we know he did not invade, conquer, and settle centaur territory - and he most certainly did no such thing for the known human settlements of Harathi Hinterlands. We do know that centaurs lived in Kryta before Elonian colonization forced them to relocate, but we do not know which part of Kryta this is. And after not living in those lands for a thousand years, their claim to it via heritage is rather... small. Same with the charr's over Ascalon or Jennah's over Orr (even though Orr was a human nation, Kryta and Ascalon had no influence of Orr for over a thousand years).