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Is the market run by bots?


mowljo.2376

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Since i got more and more involved with the market I noticed that certain Items get priced lower than their actual value, maybe for people to impulse buy or to make people belive they would actually get lucky with it if they just see the first number and then buy in bulks.

 

So what I mean with it is that certain Items costs 2,5s normally but then there is this one outliner that keeps popping up even after half an hour constant buy out it comes always up as 4 pieces of this gear and it gets sold for 1,5s.

Now I know that there are people out there that really like to play with the market but it just seems suspicious if you look closely.

If you watch out for these kind of things and these anomalys in the market you maybe see what I see.

 

I just imagine that there are people that have massive amounts of gold and they just play the market and this is okay, but playing the market and getting a bot to do it is something different.

 

Maybe Im really just a little paranoid when it comes to market bots, but they ARE a thing in many mmorpgs with a free market.

 

Do you guys ever met someone that had a monopol on different items or even the whole market?

What do you guys think about this?

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In brief, I think that if you think there's a bot operating on the market, then give all the evidence you have to ANet via a support ticket. Let them investigate.

 

Regardless of whether there are real bots or not, you're still going to have intense competition from other players, some of whom keep the TP open constantly on multiple accounts and make frequent offers. Most oddities are just other players behaving in a way new to you.

 

> @mowljo.2376 said:

> I noticed that certain Items get priced lower than their actual value,

There's no such thing as "actual value." Some people are willing to accept very little gold for their loot; some aren't.

 

> maybe for people to impulse buy or to make people belive they would actually get lucky with it if they just see the first number and then buy in bulks.

Among many other reasons.

 

>

> So what I mean with it is that certain Items costs 2,5s normally but then there is this one outliner that keeps popping up even after half an hour constant buy out it comes always up as 4 pieces of this gear and it gets sold for 1,5s.

That's not evidence of botting; that can be explained in other ways, including multiple people wanting whatever it is. For some of the items I buy, the competition includes someone who only bids on 4 at a time and checks often, someone who bids 2-3 times at e.g. 20 units and doesn't check as often, and so on.

 

> Now I know that there are people out there that really like to play with the market but it just seems suspicious if you look closely.

Only if you haven't been playing the market that long.

 

> I just imagine that there are people that have massive amounts of gold and they just play the market and this is okay, but playing the market and getting a bot to do it is something different.

Definitely.

There's no question that there are bots out there, but identifying them with just the limited view we have is tricky. At best you can say you suspect it.

 

 

 

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There are definitely tp bots since they do exist, but it's not that everytime you see something fishy is because of em.

 

That said, many players play tp instead of farming events in order to make golds or simply because the do enjoy the trade market.

 

It could be both.

I find sometimes myself dueling with players which want the same item, or simply to incrase the minimum bid in order to make a major profit or simply sell better.

 

Some players are also powerful enough to move the whole market due to their resources.

 

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I just hate how competitive some of the markets are. Every 15m you can get outbid. Their are a few website that can support players on how to make gold on the market. Some website can track what you can craft for a profit or check if you have stuff waiting for you to pick up. Still it come down to how many player have work within that market. Overtime the secret of the market reveal themselves but you can only do some much with it being a global 24/7 market.

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> @mowljo.2376 said:

> So what I mean with it is that certain Items costs 2,5s normally but then there is this one outliner that keeps popping up even after half an hour constant buy out it comes always up as 4 pieces of this gear and it gets sold for 1,5s.

> Now I know that there are people out there that really like to play with the market but it just seems suspicious if you look closely.

> If you watch out for these kind of things and these anomalys in the market you maybe see what I see.

 

Yes I've seen the type of relisting pattern that you describe. As far as I can see, bots are the only likely explanation. I can't say with any confidence if TP bots materially change the way the market works. Certainly there must be at least some impact due to the fact that they enable sellers to hide their volume of stock that is actually on the market. I would like Anet to make a statement as to whether TP bots are being blocked/banned, though due to the proprietary nature of these bots it might be the case that as long as they are small in number and don't proliferate by being publicly released, Anet would rather this issue be swept under the rug. I'm sure they don't want people to infer that TP botting is allowed, even if they are not taking action against them.

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I think a simple explanation is just the "I got a bit extra" feeling from people who are new to selling things, they want to be as sure as possible they will sell very quickly (they maybe are not experienced with the turn around on certain items) but they also don't want to sell at a price someone else dictated to them (like when you see people haggling over 50p just to "get a win"). Then once one person has put their mark down others will attach to it.

 

I think psychology rather than bots might be the culprit.

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> @mowljo.2376 said:

 

> So what I mean with it is that certain Items costs 2,5s normally but then there is this one outliner that keeps popping up even after half an hour constant buy out it comes always up as 4 pieces of this gear and it gets sold for 1,5s.

 

 

First you should ask yourself, what incentive someone would have to sell something via a bot at 60% value.

 

Doesnt make much sense to me, especially at the value you mentioned, its 6s per sale.

 

Can you link the gear this occurs on?

 

What you could have encountered are bugged listings, meaning that the TP UI doesnt display all the listings at a certain value.

 

In your example it might be that there are 100 items listed at 1.5s but only 4 show up in the UI. So until those 4 listings have been sold 25 times, the lowest listing will always stay at 1.5s and will always show 4, until the 96 bugged listings are sold.

 

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> @Wanze.8410 said:

> First you should ask yourself, what incentive someone would have to sell something via a bot at 60% value.

 

That's precisely it: the listings don't start out that way, they're a result of non-human intelligence at work. Example: there is a normal distribution pattern at price points from 5 to 6s. The botter instructs his bot to lists his items, a few at a time, at 4.99s for a safe flip. Someone comes along and unexpectedly buys everything up to 6s in one transaction. The botter does not see this yet, and the bot just does what it was told and relists at 4.99s. Meanwhile there is now a big hole between 4.99 and 6.01s which other people (like the OP) will notice because of how strange it is. They may not fully grasp what they are seeing and think someone is just discounting their items.

 

> In your example it might be that there are 100 items listed at 1.5s but only 4 show up in the UI. So until those 4 listings have been sold 25 times, the lowest listing will always stay at 1.5s and will always show 4, until the 96 bugged listings are sold.

 

If it was a bug it should manifest with larger volumes as well. And by "large" I mean very moderately large, like a stack of 10. But this phenomenon only happens with very small-volume listings, because the whole point of botting listings like this is to reduce the risk of overcommitting and be able to keep your stock agile.

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No I was actually thinking that someone would run much more than one bot program on more than one account and create a big net of bots and buy and sellers, Imagine you have a whole corporation in China or something that wants to get the most profit out of it. If someone plays the market big time there is nothing anybody could do.

I know, I know, this is probably not the case in my example. Its just things I think about.

I mean the buisiness in China is real and they got more sophisticated than ever before, so why not control whole mmorpg markets with a large amount of accounts and nearly infinit ressources.

 

LOL, now is enough, I dramatized it to much again ^^

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