Shirlias.8104 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 > @"Seera.5916" said: > > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > > The reason does not count imho. > > If we do agree on something like selling an item, whatever the reason the outcome is the same. > > > > However I could have just omitted the part about the stealth nerf because i am still trying, this is true. > > If the reason is because something was nerfed, then even those who raise their MF to the max are better off selling. > > If the reason is because something is tedious, then it's a personal choice. > > So yes, the reason matters. Though i do disagree, since the outcome for you and me is the same, i feel lost about me myself. Am I trying to make people sell items because they are no more worth it Or Am I buying them? Or else, do I not consider the gold per hour worth enough to play with them? Reading your reasons in the example you made i can't figure out what my purpose should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seera.5916 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > > @"Seera.5916" said: > > > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > > > The reason does not count imho. > > > If we do agree on something like selling an item, whatever the reason the outcome is the same. > > > > > > However I could have just omitted the part about the stealth nerf because i am still trying, this is true. > > > > If the reason is because something was nerfed, then even those who raise their MF to the max are better off selling. > > > > If the reason is because something is tedious, then it's a personal choice. > > > > So yes, the reason matters. > > Though i do disagree, since the outcome for you and me is the same, i feel lost about me myself. > > Am I trying to make people sell items because they are no more worth it > Or Am I buying them? > Or else, do I not consider the gold per hour worth enough to play with them? > > Reading your reasons in the example you made i can't figure out what my purpose should be. Huh? Can you please rephrase what it is you're trying to say? My brain is not able to figure out what your point is. You said you should sell because they nerfed the salvage rate. Your reason effects even those who bother to get their MF up to the absolute max. They should sell too. Illconceived says the average player should sell because most players find getting to the MF needed to make the difference in selling vs salvaging worth the effort to be too tedious. The player who bothers to get their MF up to max and keep it there is not the average player and therefore is fine to salvage with max MF. At least that's the answer to what I think you're trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirlias.8104 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 You claimed this > So until you're ready to cough up proof, I'm just going to think that you're just trying to keep people away from your gold mine by making people think that it's been nerfed. But I'm not going to tell you how I came up with that. That's my data and I'm not sharing. and now > If the reason is because something was nerfed, then even those who raise their MF to the max are better off selling. >If the reason is because something is tedious, then it's a personal choice. >So yes, the reason matters. So, i was wondering if my true evil goal changed somehow. Because i felt a little lost after that. However the point was that if you manage to try yourself and understand how many items can u identify yourself ( and how much time does that need ), you will probably realize that selling em + spend the time farming the best map ( let's say 1h ) will give you way more golds. That was the whole point behind ( except for a full MF salvage on rare unidentified, as he stated in the first post ). I quote just to make it easier About Common Unidentified Gear. >Recommendation: sell on the TP. >The best option is worth about 10g extra per stack of gear, but takes a lot more time to process (boosting MF, then dealing with the mats and minor runes). Salvaging is >terrible at the moment because mats are at their lowest prices in years, which makes the cost of salvaging noticeable. Silver-Fed suffers from this a lot: it drops more and >'better' loot, but not enough of it to pay for the extra cost. And about Uncommon Unidentified Gear >Recommendation: sell on the TP. >I have data on salvaging, but not from opening. (I'm sure it's out there, I just haven't found a good source to collate). Based on my own experience with smaller samples, I >don't expect significant differences from the blue/common variety. So, unless i am god or a cheater, or his modus operandi has some flaws, that's the outcome, which is the same for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 I still don't see any actual data demonstrating that there's been a nerf. Until there is, I don't see a reason to change the recommendations: * Salvaging is always worse, primarily due to the high per-salvage costs and the low value of the mats _in the current market_. * Opening with high MF is always the best option for those willing to boost it as much as possible and maintain that boost until done opening. * Selling on the TP is a good alternative for those without the patience to max MF, especially those with only a few stacks to process. It's a clear loss of potential income, but a big savings in time and effort. * The difference is most important for rare gear, so the 'best' compromise would be opening rares with maxed MF and selling the rest on the TP. * As @"Shirlias.8104" points out, I don't have good data on opening uncommon gear. I don't expect the recommendations will change because there's not all that much difference between L80 blue & green drops from the open world (they do salvage at different rates and guaranteed-green-or-better is more likely to pop rares, but the rates are low, as we've seen from champ bags and other types of containers). I'm happy to add new sources to my findings as people publish them, especially those from @"Shirlias.8104". It doesn't matter how plausible a theory is or how interesting it is, if there's no data that can be used to validate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirlias.8104 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 No need for data. I am going to explain since it seems that they did modify something. Before the patch i managed to use only blue, due to cost and profit. Here what was ( and what is currently, talking about the tires i made after the hidden nerf ). * 300 From LUCK * 10 From Fireworks * 30 From Halloween Food * 30 From Halloween Utility Item * 10 From guild Magic Find Potion * 100 From Birthday Boost * 150 From The Silverwastes map ( i didn't do the meta event, which would have granted me 50 more MF ). * 20 From Neck iNfusion Total MF = 650% I managed to have a precursor every 42k unidentified items, more or less. Here's my current drop list in less that 1 month * Tooth of Frostfang * Spark **x2** * The Energizer **x1** * Chaos Gun **x1** * Storm **x2** * Zap * The Bard * The Chosen **x1** * Rodgort's Flame * Howl **x1** * Dusk **x1** * Dawn **x2** * The Colossus * Leaf of Kudzu **x1** * The Hunter **x1** * The Lover * The Legend * Charcharias * Rage * Venom **x1** **Now, after the patch ( due to instan, uncommon gear price dropped ) i managed to try _Uncommon Unidentified items_, and after 300k unitendified items i got zero precursors**. The 11 december i posts here about the possibility, but since i only managed to try uncommon there was the possibility that precursors were only common unidentified items related, so i decided to try. After 300k of unidentified common items, no precursors ( the rest seems the be the same as before ). So, from what i happened to test, there was definitely a hidden nerf. Now we should ask ourselves if they * just removed the chance of dropping precursors from unidentified items * managed to adjust the MF requirement needed to let em drop ( something like "if you have 800 MF, then you could roll for precursors too" ). * lowered so far the chance ( as said before was 1 out of 42k, now i couldn't manage to get one out of 300k green and 300k blue ). I have enough MF boosters to make a try ( read the point 2 here above ), but i am not interested ( since whatever the outcome, it wouldn't be a good deal ). That's it. Of course I am glad that they managed to make buy thousands of gems and all permanents stuff, but i really don't like stealth nerfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seera.5916 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > No need for data. > I am going to explain since it seems that they did modify something. > > Before the patch i managed to use only blue, due to cost and profit. > > Here what was ( and what is currently, talking about the tires i made after the hidden nerf ). > > * 300 From LUCK > * 10 From Fireworks > * 30 From Halloween Food > * 30 From Halloween Utility Item > * 10 From guild Magic Find Potion > * 100 From Birthday Boost > * 150 From The Silverwastes map ( i didn't do the meta event, which would have granted me 50 more MF ). > * 20 From Neck iNfusion > > Total MF = 650% > > I managed to have a precursor every 42k unidentified items, more or less. > > Here's my current drop list in less that 1 month > > * Tooth of Frostfang > * Spark **x2** > * The Energizer **x1** > * Chaos Gun **x1** > * Storm **x2** > * Zap > * The Bard > * The Chosen **x1** > * Rodgort's Flame > * Howl **x1** > * Dusk **x1** > * Dawn **x2** > * The Colossus > * Leaf of Kudzu **x1** > * The Hunter **x1** > * The Lover > * The Legend > * Charcharias > * Rage > * Venom **x1** > > **Now, after the patch ( due to instan, uncommon gear price dropped ) i managed to try _Uncommon Unidentified items_, and after 300k unitendified items i got zero precursors**. > The 11 december i posts here about the possibility, but since i only managed to try uncommon there was the possibility that precursors were only common unidentified items related, so i decided to try. > > After 300k of unidentified common items, no precursors ( the rest seems the be the same as before ). > > So, from what i happened to test, there was definitely a hidden nerf. > Now we should ask ourselves if they > > * just removed the chance of dropping precursors from unidentified items > * managed to adjust the MF requirement needed to let em drop ( something like "if you have 800 MF, then you could roll for precursors too" ). > * lowered so far the chance ( as said before was 1 out of 42k, now i couldn't manage to get one out of 300k green and 300k blue ). > > I have enough MF boosters to make a try ( read the point 2 here above ), but i am not interested ( since whatever the outcome, it wouldn't be a good deal ). > > That's it. > Of course I am glad that they managed to make buy thousands of gems and all permanents stuff, but i really don't like stealth nerfs. You can't prove anything without data and as you only listed the precursors, your data that you've posted is worthless. We need every drop. Not just the drops that are worth something. Without knowing what percentage of the drops the precursors were before the patch, it can't be determined if getting 0 precursors after the patch is statistically significant or still within the realm of possibility. You haven't provided enough data for anyone but yourself to answer those questions. So until you're willing to provide exact numbers (every 42K or so is not exact numbers), you might as well stop asking if post-patch things changed. Because currently published complete data shows that there has been no significant change in drops. Especially if you're talking only about precursor drops since the chance for those is so low to begin with. Not even fully topped out MF is likely to increase it by a large amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirlias.8104 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 > @"Seera.5916" said: > > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > > No need for data. > > I am going to explain since it seems that they did modify something. > > > > Before the patch i managed to use only blue, due to cost and profit. > > > > Here what was ( and what is currently, talking about the tires i made after the hidden nerf ). > > > > * 300 From LUCK > > * 10 From Fireworks > > * 30 From Halloween Food > > * 30 From Halloween Utility Item > > * 10 From guild Magic Find Potion > > * 100 From Birthday Boost > > * 150 From The Silverwastes map ( i didn't do the meta event, which would have granted me 50 more MF ). > > * 20 From Neck iNfusion > > > > Total MF = 650% > > > > I managed to have a precursor every 42k unidentified items, more or less. > > > > Here's my current drop list in less that 1 month > > > > * Tooth of Frostfang > > * Spark **x2** > > * The Energizer **x1** > > * Chaos Gun **x1** > > * Storm **x2** > > * Zap > > * The Bard > > * The Chosen **x1** > > * Rodgort's Flame > > * Howl **x1** > > * Dusk **x1** > > * Dawn **x2** > > * The Colossus > > * Leaf of Kudzu **x1** > > * The Hunter **x1** > > * The Lover > > * The Legend > > * Charcharias > > * Rage > > * Venom **x1** > > > > **Now, after the patch ( due to instan, uncommon gear price dropped ) i managed to try _Uncommon Unidentified items_, and after 300k unitendified items i got zero precursors**. > > The 11 december i posts here about the possibility, but since i only managed to try uncommon there was the possibility that precursors were only common unidentified items related, so i decided to try. > > > > After 300k of unidentified common items, no precursors ( the rest seems the be the same as before ). > > > > So, from what i happened to test, there was definitely a hidden nerf. > > Now we should ask ourselves if they > > > > * just removed the chance of dropping precursors from unidentified items > > * managed to adjust the MF requirement needed to let em drop ( something like "if you have 800 MF, then you could roll for precursors too" ). > > * lowered so far the chance ( as said before was 1 out of 42k, now i couldn't manage to get one out of 300k green and 300k blue ). > > > > I have enough MF boosters to make a try ( read the point 2 here above ), but i am not interested ( since whatever the outcome, it wouldn't be a good deal ). > > > > That's it. > > Of course I am glad that they managed to make buy thousands of gems and all permanents stuff, but i really don't like stealth nerfs. > > You can't prove anything without data and as you only listed the precursors, your data that you've posted is worthless. We need every drop. Not just the drops that are worth something. > > Without knowing what percentage of the drops the precursors were before the patch, it can't be determined if getting 0 precursors after the patch is statistically significant or still within the realm of possibility. > > You haven't provided enough data for anyone but yourself to answer those questions. So until you're willing to provide exact numbers (every 42K or so is not exact numbers), you might as well stop asking if post-patch things changed. Because currently published complete data shows that there has been no significant change in drops. > > Especially if you're talking only about precursor drops since the chance for those is so low to begin with. Not even fully topped out MF is likely to increase it by a large amount. You don't need the specific data if you know that out of 600k i got 14 prec. What are you complaining about? > Were there any other drops? Ofc they were. > Are they relevant if the goal is to prove that before 1 the rateo was 1 prec every 42k ( more or less ) and that now out of 300k both blue and green ( 600k total ) not a single precursor has been seen? Definitely not. So stop whining about this. I could understan if you don't believe that i dropped that many precursors ( 1 every 2 days more or less ), but stating that you need the garbage drop is ridicolus. Get a hold of yourself, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirlias.8104 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017             After this screen there are INFINITE exotics from the high price till the actual very low price.  I don't gain anything by sharing you this, and i wouldn't have shared this if it would still have been working. That said, i was able since the release of pof to make tries and i know what the drop chances were and what currently are. There's no debate, even more with you guys, only because you don't have data to compare with me ( 1750 unidentified per hour made laugh, since i do 20k per hour ). Seriously, better accept what i said, because the discussion is now over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seera.5916 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 You don't get to decide when a discussion between more than 2 people is over. You can say that you're done with a discussion, but don't anyone else that they are done. This is a forum and more than just you and I can discuss this. > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > > @"Seera.5916" said: > > > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > > > No need for data. > > > I am going to explain since it seems that they did modify something. > > > > > > Before the patch i managed to use only blue, due to cost and profit. > > > > > > Here what was ( and what is currently, talking about the tires i made after the hidden nerf ). > > > > > > * 300 From LUCK > > > * 10 From Fireworks > > > * 30 From Halloween Food > > > * 30 From Halloween Utility Item > > > * 10 From guild Magic Find Potion > > > * 100 From Birthday Boost > > > * 150 From The Silverwastes map ( i didn't do the meta event, which would have granted me 50 more MF ). > > > * 20 From Neck iNfusion > > > > > > Total MF = 650% > > > > > > I managed to have a precursor every 42k unidentified items, more or less. > > > > > > Here's my current drop list in less that 1 month > > > > > > * Tooth of Frostfang > > > * Spark **x2** > > > * The Energizer **x1** > > > * Chaos Gun **x1** > > > * Storm **x2** > > > * Zap > > > * The Bard > > > * The Chosen **x1** > > > * Rodgort's Flame > > > * Howl **x1** > > > * Dusk **x1** > > > * Dawn **x2** > > > * The Colossus > > > * Leaf of Kudzu **x1** > > > * The Hunter **x1** > > > * The Lover > > > * The Legend > > > * Charcharias > > > * Rage > > > * Venom **x1** > > > > > > **Now, after the patch ( due to instan, uncommon gear price dropped ) i managed to try _Uncommon Unidentified items_, and after 300k unitendified items i got zero precursors**. > > > The 11 december i posts here about the possibility, but since i only managed to try uncommon there was the possibility that precursors were only common unidentified items related, so i decided to try. > > > > > > After 300k of unidentified common items, no precursors ( the rest seems the be the same as before ). > > > > > > So, from what i happened to test, there was definitely a hidden nerf. > > > Now we should ask ourselves if they > > > > > > * just removed the chance of dropping precursors from unidentified items > > > * managed to adjust the MF requirement needed to let em drop ( something like "if you have 800 MF, then you could roll for precursors too" ). > > > * lowered so far the chance ( as said before was 1 out of 42k, now i couldn't manage to get one out of 300k green and 300k blue ). > > > > > > I have enough MF boosters to make a try ( read the point 2 here above ), but i am not interested ( since whatever the outcome, it wouldn't be a good deal ). > > > > > > That's it. > > > Of course I am glad that they managed to make buy thousands of gems and all permanents stuff, but i really don't like stealth nerfs. > > > > You can't prove anything without data and as you only listed the precursors, your data that you've posted is worthless. We need every drop. Not just the drops that are worth something. > > > > Without knowing what percentage of the drops the precursors were before the patch, it can't be determined if getting 0 precursors after the patch is statistically significant or still within the realm of possibility. > > > > You haven't provided enough data for anyone but yourself to answer those questions. So until you're willing to provide exact numbers (every 42K or so is not exact numbers), you might as well stop asking if post-patch things changed. Because currently published complete data shows that there has been no significant change in drops. > > > > Especially if you're talking only about precursor drops since the chance for those is so low to begin with. Not even fully topped out MF is likely to increase it by a large amount. > > You don't need the specific data if you know that out of 600k i got 14 prec. > What are you complaining about? > > > Were there any other drops? > Ofc they were. > > Are they relevant if the goal is to prove that before 1 the rateo was 1 prec every 42k ( more or less ) and that now out of 300k both blue and green ( 600k total ) not a single precursor has been seen? > > Definitely not. > > So stop whining about this. > I could understan if you don't believe that i dropped that many precursors ( 1 every 2 days more or less ), but stating that you need the garbage drop is ridicolus. > > Get a hold of yourself, please. Given the total drops you had pre- and post-patch have been given and assuming actual drop rates between blue and green are close enough that the differences aren't statistically significant (ie: what the game is coded for), your results are statistically significant. There's somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01% chance that your results are due to chance. If my calculations are correct (and it's entirely possible that I didn't use the appropriate formula and there isn't any significant difference between pre- and post- patch drops). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirlias.8104 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I said that it's over because noone of you nor the result posted from outside the forum are valuable data. There should be something who made things like me to provide an different result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seera.5916 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 > @"Shirlias.8104" said: > I said that it's over because noone of you nor the result posted from outside the forum are valuable data. > > There should be something who made things like me to provide an different result. > Data from anyone and from anywhere is valuable. Provided enough information is provided alongside it (like MF% and number of bags opened if only giving # of drops that meet a certain criteria - like your 14 precursors in 600K drops). The larger the number of drops, the more accurate the results are. The less likely the results are just a bad/good run of luck. Not sure what you mean by the second line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 @"Shirlias.8104": Thanks for posting the data you have so far. I confess it never occurred to me to consider the possibility that precursors were just as likely to drop from plain gear as from ordinary drops in the wild. I can see why you were reluctant to provide details earlier. That said, I could use your help understanding the data you have posted. I know some of these questions are answered above, I'm just having some trouble sorting through the verbiage and images. * Is it correct that you only opened common/blue containers prior to the change you're talking about? * Was your MF consistent for all openings? Or did it vary a bit from session to session? * Do you have a break down of the non-precursor exotics, e.g. PoF/named versus Core/named etc? * Do you have a count of ecto from salvaged rares? * Do you have a count of ordinary mats resulting from salvaging blues/greens? * How many bags did you open before the change? How many after? Do you have a break down of all the before|after numbers? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Regarding the reason that the non-precursor data is important: Hardly anyone is going to open 42000 pieces of gear; you're an outlier in that regard (an apparently wealthier-than-before one, too :) ). For the typical player, the precursor results are 0, and so are irrelevant to the value of the gear, whether opening with or without high MF. If you just want to focus on precursors, we can do that. Such data is every bit as valuable as the mystic forge data we have from the esteemed Nugkill. That redditor forged 1000s & 1000s of rares and exotics to determine rates that are still useful today. They made money (plenty of it) from industrial forging, just as you appear to have made a ton from opening even the cheaper pieces of gear. But, Nugkill and you play the Law of Large Numbers to your favor: open enough bags regularly and you are going to see precursors enough to change your profit margins. The rest of us, including Power Traders such as @"Wanze.8410" and dabblers such as myself aren't going to see any precursors. And the typical player is even less likely, because the large number requirements work against them. So you're right that opening 2k pieces of gear in an hour is horribly inefficient compared to your 20k/hour. You're right that the precursor count is the most relevant for your personal wealth. But others are also correct in pointing out that the rest of the numbers are more relevant to vast majority of people reading this thread and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirlias.8104 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > @"Shirlias.8104": Thanks for posting the data you have so far. I confess it never occurred to me to consider the possibility that precursors were just as likely to drop from plain gear as from ordinary drops in the wild. I can see why you were reluctant to provide details earlier. > > That said, I could use your help understanding the data you have posted. I know some of these questions are answered above, I'm just having some trouble sorting through the verbiage and images. I like the way you manage to lead a discussion. That said, about your questions: > * Is it correct that you only opened common/blue containers prior to the change you're talking about? I managed to only use common/blue because it was convenient and green/yellow were too expensive * [Common Unidentified Gear](https://www.gw2spidy.com/item/85016 "Common Unidentified Gear") * [uncommon Unidentified Gear](https://www.gw2spidy.com/item/84731 "Uncommon Unidentified Gear") * [Rare Unidentified Gear](https://www.gw2spidy.com/item/83008 "Rare Unidentified Gear") As you can see, the prices before were way higher. It was definitely much convenient ( due to t5/t6 ) to invest into common ( exotics and rares dropped frequently with blue too, and the gamble with gree wasn't imho worth it ). > * Was your MF consistent for all openings? Or did it vary a bit from session to session? Yes. I managed before ( when i was around 3k per hour ) to more boosters ( the list i posted was my META, so consider magic find boosters and item boosters, and map meta maybe for the initial tries. but i stopped after i happened to drop a precursor with what i posted in the previous post ). > * Do you have a break down of the non-precursor exotics, e.g. PoF/named versus Core/named etc? It could be, but sometimes i happened to drop only 1 every 20k and other times 4x, so i couldn't say. > * Do you have a count of ecto from salvaged rares? I don't unfortunately. > * Do you have a count of ordinary mats resulting from salvaging blues/greens? I don't unfortunately. > * How many bags did you open before the change? How many after? Do you have a break down of all the before|after numbers? It's possible they reduced the drop of pof exotics but i really don't know since it was not important to me after the market drop > > Thanks. Yw ps: i am in a hurry and i am not sure about my answers. probably i got some questions worng. If so, please try in a different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 @"Shirlias.8104" thanks for your answers. That was very helpful to me. I'll go back and review the precursor numbers and see if I can find a way to include them in my data summaries (i'm a bit skeptical, because it can be awkward merging different types of data into the same tables). Regardless, the precursor data is very interesting & useful ... and I'm kicking myself for not thinking of it. I hope you made as much gold as I think you did :) Well done. Given your interest in a single type of drop, I can also see why you'd worry about a nerf of any sort and it feels more plausible that they'd stealth nerf stuff relating to precursors. ANet has said that they don't stealth nerf, but I feel the same way about their statements as I do about any of ours: trust, but verify. I'll keep an eye out, now that I know what to look for. Thanks again for taking the time to respond. Have a happy and a merry, whatever you are celebrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 My calculations show that if the true drop rate is 14 precursors per 600k pieces of common gear, than the chance of opening 300k more and getting 0 is about 0.69%. While the average for 300k tries is (obviously) 7, the variance is also quite high (~6.9998). In other words: the theory that there was a change to the precursor drop rate is reasonable, however, one should also expect long streaks of both luckier drops and of bad luck. As a comparison, Nugkill's forging of rares consistently yields approximately 1 precursor every ~858 tries, however... streaks as long as 3600 have been spotted. If the true rate is 1:858, the chance of a bad streak of 3600 is about 1.5%, i.e. also very very low, just like above. Or in other words, it's more likely that @"Shirlias.8104" is correct, that there was a nerf to precursor drop rates. But it's also reasonable to consider that @"Shirlias.8104" was either very lucky with the first 600k drops or very unlucky with the last 300k (or both). The problem with estimating changes to very low drop rate items is that the variance is crazy, so the streaks of good|bad luck are more extreme. In an unrealistic example, imagine a true drop rate of 1:100k. It's possible (although unlikely) that someone could get one on the 100,000th drop and another on the 100,001st drop, on the way to not getting another until 250-300k. With "only" 100,001 drops, the rate looks like 1:50k. You could go 200k more tries before the next lucky drop, and the rate right before that would look like it was nerfed to 1:300k from 1:50k, but... you'd just be on a streak. By 300k, you'd be at 1:100k, the actual drop rate (which, in this example, would also feel like a nerf). tl;dr it's really hard to observe the true drop rate when the chances are so low. @"Shirlias.8104" has good reason to believe a nerf happened, but ... maybe it was just a bad streak after a lucky one. Ideally, we'd want to see 20 or (better) 50 precursors total, to reduce the likelihood that our initial measurement was during a hot or cold streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seera.5916 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" Another possibility is that it's like what happened to the ecto salvage rates with one patch. Accidentally nerfed when it should not have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 > @"Seera.5916" said: > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" > > Another possibility is that it's like what happened to the ecto salvage rates with one patch. Accidentally nerfed when it should not have been. To my knowledge, nerfs have been alleged hundreds of times but we've only documented two drop rate bugs. (The ecto sal rate nerf and the dye rate drop from plants was too high for a while.) There have also been at least 2 situations in which a particular drop was stuck between too many conditionals, so it never actually appeared, but that doesn't apply. In the case of both the dye and ecto rate bugs, there was plenty of data to make it worth ANet's time to check. In this case, we don't have a lot of data for precursor drops. Yes, @"Shirlias.8104" has tracked 900k pieces of gear which sounds like enough, but ... it's only 14 drops and that makes it hard to say whether the initial 14 was part of a lucky streak or the subsequent 300k was part of an unlucky streak or, as @"Shirlias.8104" theorizes, it was part of a nerf (stealth, bug or otherwise). In the shoes of @"Shirlias.8104", I think I'd file a support ticket with as much detail as I could (e.g. approximate dates I purchased pieces of gear, plus same for when opened). That is: **we** might not have enough data, but ANet does and @"Shirlias.8104" 14 drops might be enough to make it worth the 30 minutes it takes someone at QA to review. (Were I the QA manager, it would depend on how backed up the queue was.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirlias.8104 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1200 pieces ( used for tests. 600 Common before patch, 300 uncommon + 300 Common after patch ). I also managed to use some the first 5 days after pof release, managing to cap mf with a 1000g profit but I don't remember nothing strange ( i was not efficient at all btw, so more or Less 5k per hour ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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