Black lion chest thoughts

[GrubySzymek.1362]

> @"Shirlias.8104" said:

> But if you think about numbers of copy which have been sold, the absence of a monthly subscription, devs and servers cost and the possibility of converting golds to gems, you can realize that high priced bundles are needed to gw2 in order to survive.

>

 

How about selling all the exclusive BLC rng items directly through gemstore?

 

They won't. Because gambling gives them more money. They know customers are already used to gambling and don't really think about spending money and not getting what they want.

[Blood Red Arachnid.2493]

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> Of course it does, because people are manipulated into spending 5 USD multiple times instead of 50 USD one time, making more profit for the company. And loot boxes take huge part in it until you realize you paid 500 USD for loot boxes to get this one item worth nothing more but 15 USD.

>

> Anyway, I think like I already posted in other (exactly the same) discussion - nothing is going to change. People are buying and will be buying these things. Gaming industry already programmed customers that you buy AAA game for full price and you still are supposed to spend more for microtransactions. Nothing is going to change.

 

You're talking in circles. I've already provided substantial evidence that everything you're saying is wrong. People don't spend 5 USD, period.

 

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> Casinos don't use drugs either and yet they can make you addicted to gambling. BLCs and other gambling boxes are created by people educated at customer manipulation. They study how to make people into buying these things.

>

> If it wasn't true how is it possible that more and more companies claim they get more money from micros than from sales? Even for single player games?

>

 

Living in Vegas, I've been to half a dozen different casinos, multiple times. There's a reason why they all smell like an unwashed ash tray. The people who tend to gamble a lot are the same kind of people who will chug beer and inhale cigs. Even then, the number of people who will gamble themselves into oblivion is rare. Reasonable gamblers set aside a portion of their income to spend on gambling, and don't go over that amount.

 

The reason why companies get so much money from microtransactions is because of whales.

[GrubySzymek.1362]

> @"Blood Red Arachnid.2493" said:

> > @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > Of course it does, because people are manipulated into spending 5 USD multiple times instead of 50 USD one time, making more profit for the company. And loot boxes take huge part in it until you realize you paid 500 USD for loot boxes to get this one item worth nothing more but 15 USD.

> >

> > Anyway, I think like I already posted in other (exactly the same) discussion - nothing is going to change. People are buying and will be buying these things. Gaming industry already programmed customers that you buy AAA game for full price and you still are supposed to spend more for microtransactions. Nothing is going to change.

>

> You're talking in circles. I've already provided substantial evidence that everything you're saying is wrong. People don't spend 5 USD, period.

>

> > @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > Casinos don't use drugs either and yet they can make you addicted to gambling. BLCs and other gambling boxes are created by people educated at customer manipulation. They study how to make people into buying these things.

> >

> > If it wasn't true how is it possible that more and more companies claim they get more money from micros than from sales? Even for single player games?

> >

>

> Living in Vegas, I've been to half a dozen different casinos, multiple times. There's a reason why they all smell like an unwashed ash tray. The people who tend to gamble a lot are the same kind of people who will chug beer and inhale cigs. Even then, the number of people who will gamble themselves into oblivion is rare. Reasonable gamblers set aside a portion of their income to spend on gambling, and don't go over that amount.

>

> The reason why companies get so much money from microtransactions is because of whales.

 

If the research (probably bought or manipulated) were true, how is it possible game companies yuse more and more gambling boxes? Because it works. If it didn't, they wouldn't use them to such scale.

[Blood Red Arachnid.2493]

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> If the research (probably bought or manipulated) were true, how is it possible game companies yuse more and more gambling boxes? Because it works. If it didn't, they wouldn't use them to such scale.

 

They work because of whales.

[Faaris.8013]

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> But for small purchases, like BL keys, it's targeted at everybody. Look at their scheme - from time to time they offer you free key in gemstore. So you don't care what you get, it's free right? But they are already programming you, the thrill of gambling is there and in some cases it's gonna work. You get baited to buy next key, and another one, and another, wishing for the big prize. Or anything expensive you can sell. Let's say you buy 1 key per week. It's still money for them. This system is made to teach you to accept gambling and not getting the desired reward to overpay for multiple tries.

 

But it's not working out for them because still only a tiny part of players actually buy keys with real money. I don't have numbers of course, but I can see the huge impact a free key has on prices on the market. Only 1 free key per account and you see prices dropping for 50% or even 75% and more. Shadow Abyss Dye dropped from buy/sell 470/600 to 75/90 the day Anet gave 1 single free key per account. Prices for BL weapon skins have dropped significantly too. Heck even such extremely rare things like the Permanent Hair Stylist Contract dropped in prices after that day.

 

If players actually got several keys per day or week, one free key would not have such an impact on the market for BLC items.

[GrubySzymek.1362]

> @"Faaris.8013" said:

> > @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > But for small purchases, like BL keys, it's targeted at everybody. Look at their scheme - from time to time they offer you free key in gemstore. So you don't care what you get, it's free right? But they are already programming you, the thrill of gambling is there and in some cases it's gonna work. You get baited to buy next key, and another one, and another, wishing for the big prize. Or anything expensive you can sell. Let's say you buy 1 key per week. It's still money for them. This system is made to teach you to accept gambling and not getting the desired reward to overpay for multiple tries.

>

> But it's not working out for them because still only a tiny part of players actually buy keys with real money. I don't have numbers of course, but I can see the huge impact a free key has on prices on the market. Only 1 free key per account and you see prices dropping for 50% or even 75% and more. Shadow Abyss Dye dropped from buy/sell 470/600 to 75/90 the day Anet gave 1 single free key per account. Prices for BL weapon skins have dropped significantly too. Heck even such extremely rare things like the Permanent Hair Stylist Contract dropped in prices after that day.

>

> If players actually got several keys per day or week, one free key would not have such an impact on the market for BLC items.

 

Not really. Every gem you buy with gold has been previously bought with money and transfered into gold. So someone paid for your gems. If it wasn't like this, the gold2gem conversion would be impossible to use at this point. So the amount of people paying real money is not as small as you think.

[Faaris.8013]

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > @"Faaris.8013" said:

> > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > > But for small purchases, like BL keys, it's targeted at everybody. Look at their scheme - from time to time they offer you free key in gemstore. So you don't care what you get, it's free right? But they are already programming you, the thrill of gambling is there and in some cases it's gonna work. You get baited to buy next key, and another one, and another, wishing for the big prize. Or anything expensive you can sell. Let's say you buy 1 key per week. It's still money for them. This system is made to teach you to accept gambling and not getting the desired reward to overpay for multiple tries.

> >

> > But it's not working out for them because still only a tiny part of players actually buy keys with real money. I don't have numbers of course, but I can see the huge impact a free key has on prices on the market. Only 1 free key per account and you see prices dropping for 50% or even 75% and more. Shadow Abyss Dye dropped from buy/sell 470/600 to 75/90 the day Anet gave 1 single free key per account. Prices for BL weapon skins have dropped significantly too. Heck even such extremely rare things like the Permanent Hair Stylist Contract dropped in prices after that day.

> >

> > If players actually got several keys per day or week, one free key would not have such an impact on the market for BLC items.

>

> Not really. Every gem you buy with gold has been previously bought with money and transfered into gold. So someone paid for your gems. If it wasn't like this, the gold2gem conversion would be impossible to use at this point. So the amount of people paying real money is not as small as you think.

 

I'm saying that few people are actually getting these keys on a regular basis, no matter if they buy gems with gold or with real money.

[Lexi.1398]

Well yeah. At the very least gw2 is good about having, in total, not too much of a loss in gems to buy keys vs gem value of loot (statues are a huge step towards this, though it'd be nice to turn all my upgrade extractors and 10x tp to friend into 1 statue each because i have literally no use for em :P), especially as you can get keys and gems via normal gameplay (and don't complain about keys being rare - do map completion and you'll soon find it's not that bad. i have like 10 statuettes since they cycled in from map comp.)

[Blood Red Arachnid.2493]

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > @"Faaris.8013" said:

> > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > > But for small purchases, like BL keys, it's targeted at everybody. Look at their scheme - from time to time they offer you free key in gemstore. So you don't care what you get, it's free right? But they are already programming you, the thrill of gambling is there and in some cases it's gonna work. You get baited to buy next key, and another one, and another, wishing for the big prize. Or anything expensive you can sell. Let's say you buy 1 key per week. It's still money for them. This system is made to teach you to accept gambling and not getting the desired reward to overpay for multiple tries.

> >

> > But it's not working out for them because still only a tiny part of players actually buy keys with real money. I don't have numbers of course, but I can see the huge impact a free key has on prices on the market. Only 1 free key per account and you see prices dropping for 50% or even 75% and more. Shadow Abyss Dye dropped from buy/sell 470/600 to 75/90 the day Anet gave 1 single free key per account. Prices for BL weapon skins have dropped significantly too. Heck even such extremely rare things like the Permanent Hair Stylist Contract dropped in prices after that day.

> >

> > If players actually got several keys per day or week, one free key would not have such an impact on the market for BLC items.

>

> Not really. Every gem you buy with gold has been previously bought with money and transfered into gold. So someone paid for your gems. If it wasn't like this, the gold2gem conversion would be impossible to use at this point. So the amount of people paying real money is not as small as you think.

 

Do you actually know what we mean when we say "whale"?

[kurfu.5623]

> @"Anthony.7260" said:

 

> I think black lion chests are NOT lotto boxes or gambling.

 

You are sadly mistaken.

 

[mauried.5608]

BLCs arnt gambling because you arnt told what you are going to win.

In RL pretty well every form of gambling tells you beforehand what you are likley to win, and in most cases its money.

Also, in RL the odds of you winning something are determinable before you gamble, even though most people dont care.

Would people be happier with BLCs if Anet created a list of what you could win and what the odds were for each prize?

 

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

> @"mauried.5608" said:

> BLCs arnt gambling because you arnt told what you are going to win.

> In RL pretty well every form of gambling tells you beforehand what you are likley to win, and in most cases its money.

> Also, in RL the odds of you winning something are determinable before you gamble, even though most people dont care.

> Would people be happier with BLCs if Anet created a list of what you could win and what the odds were for each prize?

>

 

There is, already, a list of exactly what you might acquire within a Black Lion Chest. It is easily accessible through the 'Preview' feature. There is, also, a very 'fuzzy' explanation of the odds: 'Common', 'Uncommon', 'Rare' and 'Super Rare'.

 

Good luck.

[Biff.5312]

It IS gambling by definition. And your way of looking at it is only valid if you want EVERY POSSIBLE PRIZE. There is nothing you can 'win' that is useless to you?

[Seera.5916]

You can get addicted to gambling. The rush that happens right before the drawing for a lottery or right before you pull the lever at a slot machine or right before you open a BLC can be addictive. It's why many state run lotteries when they advertise their lottery always put in something to advertise gambling help services for those addicted to gambling.

 

That being said, I do not have any problem with the BLC and have not had one during the lifetime of the game. Now that the statuette comes with them, it does mean that players do get X number of chests before they can win anything offered except from what I saw the permanent contracts - which I can fully understand there. So the BLC's are in the best state they've ever been.

 

If the items in the common area are useless to you, I would not buy any keys. Just use the keys that you get for free - rare drop in the game and the key from certain story steps. If you find the items in the common area useful, then by all means buy keys either with gold or with real life money.

[Anthony.7260]

Wow so much discussion. Thanks for chatting you all. I learned a lot about this stuff.

 

The reason i think black.lion chest may not be gambling (they could be) is if you plan to flip skins into gold...then i could the chest as a gamble.

 

I admit ....i am a hoarder so i keep all those banks blt post repair cans and boosters in my bank rarely using them.

 

I don't think chest have junk but i am a hoarder so that's me.

 

I don't know why people gamble keys to flip skins into gold. Almost every rare skin or item in the chest is available in the post for 40ish or 80ish gold. You can buy it direct instead of gambling.

 

The rush you feel for gambling. I know what it's like. It works more on right brain emotional people than left brain logical people. The chemical and emotional change can make.someone feel a rush that chance and karma will make them hit "big" and it's an addictive compulsive feeling of excitement.

 

Yea i think the sitattues are design for anet to cover their asses from legal laws trending in europe.

 

 

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Biff.5312" said:

> It IS gambling by definition.

Gambling has a legal definition, as well as a dictionary definition, as well as lots of different ways that people interpret the word. It's not all that useful in discussion because you can be reasonably sure that others are using a different meaning of the word than you are.

 

Since none of us are lawyers specializing in gambling laws, I think it might be better to stick to the specific elements that might be of concern. BL chest share one element with gambling: the rewards are random. Other than that, they have more in common with all sorts of things that aren't considered gambling. That alone doesn't make them good for the community or the game, but neither does it make them bad.

 

When it comes to labeling something as "gambling," it's often done as a short hand for saying "this is a bad thing" rather than having a discussion about whether it is or isn't. It's similar to people who have claimed, in these very forums, that the [Thirst Slayer](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Thirst_Slayer) achievement promotes drinking. (It's not a complete analogy, since obviously one isn't actually drinking, whereas as with BL chests, one is actually paying gems to play a game of chance.)

 

tl;dr technically, it's a game of chance. Whether it's "gambling" is a more complicated question and probably not useful in understanding the issues that people would like to expose here.

 

 

[DarcShriek.5829]

> @"Biff.5312" said:

> It IS gambling by definition. And your way of looking at it is only valid if you want EVERY POSSIBLE PRIZE. There is nothing you can 'win' that is useless to you?

 

It is NOT gambling by definition. US courts have maintained that it isn't.

http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1167864.html

[Seera.5916]

> @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > @"Biff.5312" said:

> > It IS gambling by definition. And your way of looking at it is only valid if you want EVERY POSSIBLE PRIZE. There is nothing you can 'win' that is useless to you?

>

> It is NOT gambling by definition. US courts have maintained that it isn't.

> http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1167864.html

 

It states that it is not unlawful gambling. Not that it isn't gambling.

[DarcShriek.5829]

> @"Seera.5916" said:

> > @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > > @"Biff.5312" said:

> > > It IS gambling by definition. And your way of looking at it is only valid if you want EVERY POSSIBLE PRIZE. There is nothing you can 'win' that is useless to you?

> >

> > It is NOT gambling by definition. US courts have maintained that it isn't.

> > http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1167864.html

>

> It states that it is not unlawful gambling. Not that it isn't gambling.

 

> @"Seera.5916" said:

> > @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > > @"Biff.5312" said:

> > > It IS gambling by definition. And your way of looking at it is only valid if you want EVERY POSSIBLE PRIZE. There is nothing you can 'win' that is useless to you?

> >

> > It is NOT gambling by definition. US courts have maintained that it isn't.

> > http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1167864.html

>

> It states that it is not unlawful gambling. Not that it isn't gambling.

 

It says there was no gambling. They received what they paid for. There were no damages. Remember the buyers were kids. Any form of gambling would be illegal

[Seera.5916]

> @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > @"Seera.5916" said:

> > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > > > @"Biff.5312" said:

> > > > It IS gambling by definition. And your way of looking at it is only valid if you want EVERY POSSIBLE PRIZE. There is nothing you can 'win' that is useless to you?

> > >

> > > It is NOT gambling by definition. US courts have maintained that it isn't.

> > > http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1167864.html

> >

> > It states that it is not unlawful gambling. Not that it isn't gambling.

>

> > @"Seera.5916" said:

> > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > > > @"Biff.5312" said:

> > > > It IS gambling by definition. And your way of looking at it is only valid if you want EVERY POSSIBLE PRIZE. There is nothing you can 'win' that is useless to you?

> > >

> > > It is NOT gambling by definition. US courts have maintained that it isn't.

> > > http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1167864.html

> >

> > It states that it is not unlawful gambling. Not that it isn't gambling.

>

> It says there was no gambling. They received what they paid for. There were no damages. Remember the buyers were kids. Any form of gambling would be illegal

 

If you buy something explicitly to get the item that is the rare option (the rare cards, the permanent contracts), then it is gambling. It may not be gambling by the LEGAL definition of the word gambling, but it's still gambling. You are gambling that the pack you pick (or the chest you open) has the item you want it.

 

And the courts can only go by the legal definition of words. Since that was a summary of appeal attempts, we do not know the exact phrasing the courts used when dismissing the charges.

 

And with chests not being purchasable directly by cash, then it probably wouldn't fit the legal definition of gambling anyway. Any real money bought gems and not the chests in the eye of the law.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

The point is that "gambling" isn't a useful word in this discussion. It means different things to different people, especially depending on the context. Better to describe what it is about BL chests that one thinks is bad for the game or bad for specific people, instead of trying to get people to agree on the definition... especially since we can see that even the lawyers don't agree.

[Grok Krog.9581]

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> Thank you for sharing your opinion. You are wrong. However, Anet made a big step with BL statuettes. Most likely a preparation or incoming regulations for gambling in video games which is exploitation of children. With the statuettes Anet can now say that even with 100% bad rng you will get what you want. Eventually.

>

> Still hate gaming industry as a whole, anet included, for exploiting children with gambling.

 

It's not technically gambling, as you're always guaranteed a prize. It may not be what you want, but it might what someone else really wanted. I think it can only be considered gambling if it's a chance to win something but not guaranteed to win something

[Anthony.7260]

It seems like gambling because it has 2 types of items - trash - and useful or desirable items.

 

When people throw away gems or gold on the box. They might be gambling.

 

Again the only reason i like the chest is because i horde the trash and consume the skins for completionist. People usually want a rare skin or desirable item so they can post for gold on the trade post.

 

It's better to just convert gems to gold and buy the skin you want. But people don't want the skin - they want to sell the skin for gold. I guess that's the gamble. Use gems on chests to profit as much gold as possible.

[IndigoSundown.5419]

> @"Blood Red Arachnid.2493" said:

>

> The [swrve Survey](https://www.swrve.com/company/press/swrve-finds-015-of-mobile-gamers-contribute-50-of-all-in-game-revenue "https://swrve.com/company/press/swrve-finds-015-of-mobile-gamers-contribute-50-of-all-in-game-revenue") that found these numbers monitored in-game purchases over all their games for the span of a full month. Tens of millions of gamers, and nobody buys anything.

 

So, if the numbers in this source (is it reputable?) were true; and if the findings were transferable (maybe not) and we were to assume GW2 has 500,000 active players (who knows, but I'm picking that number just for giggles), then only 1.5% of them (7,500) spend money on gems. Of that 7,500, 750 buy 50% of those gems. In 2Q17, NCSoft reported revenue of 13,557 M Kwn, which by today's conversion would equal $12,743,580 US. 50% of that figure is $6,371,790. So, 750 people spent an average of ~$8,495. On gems. That would be 849.5 purchases of 800 gems ($10 each), or 679,600 gems _apiece_. Over a three month period, that's ~226,500 gems per month. Just what the kitten are they buying? Gold? There's not enough stuff in the store to warrant that kind of spending consistently. The numbers look even sillier if GW2 active player numbers are less than 500K. Fudge the revenue numbers for the trickle of new game purchases in that quarter, they look a tiny bit less silly.

 

I don't know. Maybe numbers from mobile games are in the ballpark for MMO's. Maybe not. I'm dubious that we can infer that they are directly transferable.

[Vayne.8563]

Okay, a bit of a different perspective. I'm a whale. I've spent a TON of money on this game. I'm not much of a gambler though. And still, I like getting black lion keys from time to time.

 

I don't really do it because I'm trying to get ONE thing that's better than everything, though it's nice when it happens. I'm doing it because I find the process fun. I find some randomness fun. This is my main hobby. I have the available funds. And I'm not hurting anyone.

 

But then I look back at other hobbies I've had. I've spent a ton of money on all my hobbies. When I used to watch wrestling with my mates, I'd go to Live matches every single month. Spent far more money than I'd spend on Guild Wars 2 doing that, for far fewer hours. No one says a word when you do that for you recreation.

 

Some people go out to coffee shops with friends a couple of times a week. Pretty easy to blow quite a bit of money going out to eat, but no one tells those people they're spending money on something worthless, even though afterwards they're left with pretty much nothing but too many calories and the need to diet (at least if they're having donuts, or pastries of some kind with their coffee).

 

I have lost count of the number of hobbies I've had in my life and pretty much all of them cost more than this...and I spend a lot on this.

 

This entire conversation is really based on the idea that some people can't control their urge to gamble, and that's true. Like they can't control their urge to smoke, or drink. Like they can't control their tempers. Like they can't control their over-eating. Like they can't control well anything.

 

I understand there are people who can't control their impulses. But ridding the world of anything that might addict them, means taking away almost everything, because there are few things in this world someone isn't going to get addicted to. Where do you draw the line? Should we get rid of sugar because a lot of people get addicted to that.

 

People are responsible for their own behavior. If you're worried about it, get help. Don't start. But saying this is bad because people can get addicted to it means we should outlaw coffee as well.