Unidentified Gear has 436 different possible exotic drops on the loot table

[Wanze.8410]

Copy/past from my [reddit post](

)

 

I compiled a list of all exotic items that can be obtained from identifying Unidentified Gear.

 

In order to have easier access to their average trading values, I created public watchlists on gw2bltc. If you are interested in how I compiled these drops, I talked a bit more about that in this (

) in the sticky of this subreddit

 

Even though I didnt get every drop personally, I was able to identify all the gear sets and just assumed that if I got one or more drops from one set, the whole set would be on the loot table.

 

I am fairly certain that my list is pretty accurate, even though 1 or 2 of the named weapons might be wrong or missing but that wouldnt make any significant difference to the average value.

 

#[Armor](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/tp/search?list=4436&ipg=200&cust-search=sell%2Cbuy%2Cprofit%2Cprofit-pct%2Csupply%2Cdemand%2Csold-day%2Coffers-day%2Cbought-day%2Cbids-day%2Cgw2-id&sort=name&page=1&order=asc)

 

An armor set always consists of 18 pieces, 6 each for each armor type and there are 11 different sets on the loot table and **198 armor pieces in total**:

 

* 7 sets of old named armor

 

* 3 sets of generic lower level (76, 78, 79) armor

 

* 1 set of named armor of the spearmarshal

 

**The current total sales value of these 198 items is 161g or 0.81g per item on average**

 

#Weapons

 

Weapons sets consist either of 16 (no aquatic weapons/named sunspear weapons), 19 (with aquatic weapons/regular sets) or 20 (precursors/2 GS).

 

In total, there are 12 weapon sets on the loot table and 226 weapons in total. It was a bit harder to compile this list because 153 are named weapons and most of them arent really traditional sets with 1 weapon type each.

 

The wiki has a list of all [named](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/List_of_named_weapons), which I took as base for my research. Not all named weapons are on the loot table for unid gear but while slowly adding my own confirmed drops of named weapons, I realized that some named weapon groups were excluded from the loot table:

 

* weapons with fixed mystic forge recipes that require mystic coins and spirit shards to forge

 

* Heart of Maguuma standalone weapons

 

* weapons required for the Exotic Hunter collection

 

* weapons only rewarded from certain events, like Final Rest from Behemoth or Scarlets Kiss/Rainbow

 

Excluding those, I added all remaining named weapons to my list and came up with 133 different named weapons (plus 20 precursors, which are added to a different watchlist as they are value outliers).

 

I am pretty confident that this list is correct, since I got 7 different named weapons for each of the 19 weapon types. I only included 132 of those weapons in my watchlist though, as the Staff Delusion is account bound and therefore not tradeable.

 

Besides those 133 named weapons, there are also 3 sets of generic lower level weapons (57 total), just like with the armor, 16 named sunspear weapons and 20 precursors for a grand total of 226.

 

Since I want to use my watchlists to determine average values, I will exclude the precursors and the 6 sunspear weapons which are needed for PoF elite spec collections from my first watchlist, as those are also average value outliers and make a separate watchlist for them.

 

This also solves a little technical problem because gw2bltc can only show a max of 200 items per page and I [end up with 200 different weapons](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/tp/search?list=4438&ipg=200&sort=name&cust-search=sell%2Cbuy%2Cprofit%2Cprofit-pct%2Csupply%2Cdemand%2Csold-day%2Coffers-day%2Cbought-day%2Cbids-day%2Cgw2-id&page=1&order=asc)

 

Keep in mind that the list only shows 199 items as Delusion isnt shown.

 

**The total current sales value of these 200 weapons is 309g or 1.55g per weapon on average.**

 

#Precursors, expensive sunspear weapons and trinkets

 

The 6 named sunspear weapons required for PoF Elite Spec Collections have **[a current total sales value of 231g or 38g per weapon on average](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/tp/search?list=4439&cust-search=sell%2Cbuy%2Cprofit%2Cprofit-pct%2Csupply%2Cdemand%2Csold-day%2Coffers-day%2Cbought-day%2Cbids-day%2Cgw2-id=)**

 

The 20 precursors have **[a current total sales value of 6000g or 300g per precursor on average](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/tp/search?list=4390)**

 

There are also [12 exotic trinkets](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/tp/search?list=4391&ipg=25&sort=name&cust-search=sell%2Cbuy%2Cprofit%2Cprofit-pct%2Csupply%2Cdemand%2Csold-day%2Coffers-day%2Cbought-day%2Cbids-day%2Cgw2-id) on the loot table, 6 rings and 6 amulets, nothing fancy.

 

These 12 trinkets have **a total sales value of 16g or 1.25g per item on average**.

 

#Totals and Averages

 

This means we have a total of 436 different possible exotic drops, 198 armor pieces, 226 weapons and 12 trinkets, which have a total value of ~6717g or 15.41g per item on average.

 

Of course, the average value is spiked quite a bit by the 20 precursors, who make up around 90% of the total value.

 

Since its likely that the precursors have a lower droprate than all the other items, it makes sense to exclude them to get a more realistic projection of average values for exotic drops from Unidentified Gear:

 

Without precursors, we have a total of 416 different possible exotic drops with a total value of 717g or 1.72g per item on average.

 

[Shirlias.8104]

Those were definitely good times!

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

Thanks for posting this.

[EnigmaHyena.8576]

Thanks for going through all of that info! It's interesting to read - I didn't know that precoursers were possible drops. I am curious to see if you broke it down by rarity (Uncommon, Rare) unidentified gears as well.

[Mikuchan.7261]

I see that to get the average value, you're just dividing the added value with the number of items.

I see you do acknowledge this with removing precursors, but even the other exotics surely have some form of tier list for droprates?

I'm not meaning to downplay your effort, but to just suggest that people take the average values with a grain of salt and that the "average" may not mean much in reality.

But it's a nice effort and it provides other useful information, for example that precursors are possible drops.

Neat job!

 

If you want to further the research, it'd be a good idea to try to figure out droprates so you can weigh the average based on the droprate to get a pretty realistic average value.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Mikuchan.7261" said:

> I see that to get the average value, you're just dividing the added value with the number of items.

> I see you do acknowledge this with removing precursors, but even the other exotics surely have some form of tier list for droprates?

 

The question that people always ask is:

> Should I sell, salvage, or open unidentified gear.

 

This post isn't really trying to answer that, in part because it depends greatly on your magic find at the time of opening. I see the main purpose of this thread in giving people an idea of just how vast the number of drops is, even from the rare tier of unidentified gear (which can only drop rares or exotics).

 

Humans generally have trouble keeping track of things in quantities greater than 5-10 items, so shrinking things down to a simple average is a good way to start. The OP further broke things down into the average of each category of exotic, as the OP define them (e.g. named sunspear, named other stuff, precursors, etc). And finally, on Reddit, the OP did share some things about the post TP values of an actual 3k sample, i.e. not an estimated value, but an actual one.

 

In other words, you're technically correct: a valid estimation of the value in opening would take into account the fact that the drop rates aren't identical for all items. Evidence is strong that the rates for named weapons is different from unnamed. For example, I have data that suggests that at high MF it's ~1.3% for named sunspear, 3.4% for other named exotics, and 1.5% for other exotic weapons. At lower MF, those numbers are 0.2%, 1.6%, and 1.1%, i.e. a lot less.

 

****

To go back to the issue your question implies:

> Should I sell, salvage, or open unidentified gear.

 

##### Here's the simplest rule of thumb:

* Open stacks only if you are willing to take time to optimally _process_ the gear (see below about how).

* Open individually the same way you might throw a few rares into the forge: you're unlikely to get good stuff, but it's fun.

* Sell if you don't want to deal. Currently, you won't lose that much gold by doing so. @"Wanze.8410" estimates the loss at less than 20%, a small price to pay to avoid the workload.

* Never salvage.

* The cutoff point for rare, masterwork, and common is somewhat different, but for our purposes: you might as well open the less types if you're already managing the rares. Otherwise sell.

 

##### Optimal Processing

* First, clean out a character and your bank. You want enough slots to hold the results, so more is better. You want bank space to hold exotics until later

* Own the Silver-fed Salvage O-Matic or prepare a lot of mystic kits. (Basically, one per stack.)

* Gather as many MF buffs as you can (see the wiki: foods, oils, boosters, fireworks, etc). But don't use most of them yet.

* Head to the Silverwastes. Ideally, participate in the meta for the maximum buff. Otherwise, just make sure to get 5 stacks of perseverance (for the huge MF buff it provides)

* Step to a vendor in safe location.

* Open all

* When full, adjust a little and salvage all rares. Optional: separate out staffs & greatswords (worth a little more, but also distracting & time consuming).

* Move exotics to the bank. Sell runes & sigils to the vendor (you can recover these later if you want, but very little of your coin is here).

* Repeat and hopefully you don't run out of room until you run out of stacks.

* Take the exotics out of the bank and sell them off at the best price you can.

* Sleep for 10 hours to recover your sanity.

 

@"Wanze.8410" processed 12 stacks (3k) in 30 minutes after first making 300 slots available on his character **and** about that many in the bank. The less room you have, the longer the process takes.

 

****

That's why it makes sense to just post an exhaustive list of the exotics, with average value by category: most people won't care about the details and those who want to profit will ensure to find good sources for reasonable estimated values of the contents.

 

tl;dr post is about showing people the vast variety of loot. It's a separate question to figure out how to gain the most you can from the containers.

[Wanze.8410]

> @"Mikuchan.7261" said:

> I see that to get the average value, you're just dividing the added value with the number of items.

> I see you do acknowledge this with removing precursors, but even the other exotics surely have some form of tier list for droprates?

> I'm not meaning to downplay your effort, but to just suggest that people take the average values with a grain of salt and that the "average" may not mean much in reality.

> But it's a nice effort and it provides other useful information, for example that precursors are possible drops.

> Neat job!

>

> If you want to further the research, it'd be a good idea to try to figure out droprates so you can weigh the average based on the droprate to get a pretty realistic average value.

 

Thats true but I cant make the 2nd step before the first one, so horizontal distribution (different droprates for items in the same loot category) will be my next research.

 

Knowing the overall amount of possible exotic drops is required to do so and determining horizontal distribution also requires a fairly larger sample size because i can make less assumption than in this research.

 

For example, even though I may not have gotten every drop of Zhed's Armor, I can safely assume that all 6 pieces are on the loot table. I also havent gotten any precursor drops personally but other researchers got some drops. Even though I dont know of reports that all 20 precursors have dropped from Unid gear, I think its safe to assume that all pres are on the loot table and not just a couple.

 

For my horizontal distribution research, I divided the whole loot table in different baskets and each basket includes gear sets that are similar.

 

For example, I divided all armors into 3 baskets:

 

* Old Named Armor Sets

* lower level armor sets

* spearmarshal armor

 

While I am pretty confident that all armor pieces of one basket have the same droprate, different baskets may have different droprates.

 

My current data indicates for example that the lower level gear has a smaller droprate than the named weapons and armor and precursors have an even lower droprate.