Jitsuryoku.9038 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 So I've just bought 100 keys in hopes of getting that longbow pack (by the way, with no success) and having bought them (and stacked from other sources) before, I was REALLY surprised with results.... **For the record, my personal average per 50 keys was around:** 2.5 common weapon skins (from non-super rare collection), 6 wardrobe unlocks (RNG skin), ~4 weapon claim tickets and most importantly: ~3 exclussives, 1-2 rare item (I get a 2nd every now and then) . **This time, with 100 keys, I've gotten**: 3 crimson skins, 1 lovestruck skin (rare category), 18 Black Lion Weapon Claim ticket SCRAPS, 6 miniature claim tickets, , griphon hatcling pack, 11 (RNG) skin unlockers. The rest is complete garbage (common stuff with no real value), such as dyes, primiers, Mini eggs and all that stuff that at best has collective value of 10g. **I was wondering how other peoples' luck was since the last "improvement" of BL chests (where they moved "rare" weapon collections to uncommon).** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrubySzymek.1362 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Make a sample of 10 000 or 100 000 to draw any conclusions. In your case I'd call it just bad RNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jitsuryoku.9038 Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > Make a sample of 10 000 or 100 000 to draw any conclusions. In your case I'd call it just bad RNG. Thank you for your input, but I'm not here to do a scientific study and write a paper on it to prove/disprove something with pure statistical data. I wanna hear how other people's **relative** experience was. ^_^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shikigami.4013 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > Make a sample of 10 000 or 100 000 to draw any conclusions. In your case I'd call it just bad RNG. As this would be way too expensive, he explicitly asks for other users experiences, in order to increase the sample size: "I was wondering how other peoples' luck was since the last "improvement" of BL chests". The more people answer the higher the cumulative sample size is. Of course he will not find 100 players who also used 100 keys to bring the total sample size to 10000, but he is not trying to figure out exact percentages, only a general trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaklex.6308 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 > @"Shikigami.4013" said: > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > Make a sample of 10 000 or 100 000 to draw any conclusions. In your case I'd call it just bad RNG. > > As this would be way too expensive, he explicitly asks for other users experiences, in order to increase the sample size: "I was wondering how other peoples' luck was since the last "improvement" of BL chests". The more people answer the higher the cumulative sample size is. Of course he will not find 100 players who also used 100 keys to bring the total sample size to 10000, but he is not trying to figure out exact percentages, only a general trend. That's not how it works, since each individuals sample of 100 needs to be taken separately, you can't add them up to get the larger sample size...which is why Keldorn stated to make a sample of 10k or 100k to draw conclusions. Otherwise I could say with my 50 keys I got 5 Crimson Skins(1 dupe), the Fire-Breathing Lonbow/Back piece combo, 13 RNG skin unlocks, and the rest...common items, but not garbage as he describes them, since all the rare dyes themselves range in value between 5g and over 25g ea.(depending on the color)...and lots of T6 materials. You see my results are probably better than his, it's RNG, you need a single player opening a massive amount of BLTC to come up with any conclusions...of which has been done enough times already it doesn't need to be done again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The OP has reworded their post title to clarify that they are interested in anecdotes, not about measuring the value of the contents (whether absolute or relative to last month's chest offerings). Accordingly, I'm hiding my previous comments, since they were germane to the original phrasing. >! > @"Jitsuryoku.9038" said: >! > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: >! > > Make a sample of 10 000 or 100 000 to draw any conclusions. In your case I'd call it just bad RNG. >! > >! > Thank you for your input, but I'm not here to do a scientific study and write a paper on it to prove/disprove something with pure statistical data. >! > I wanna hear how other people's **relative** experience was. ^_^ >! >! You can't figure out your luck from "relative experience." >! >! Your question was: >! > Is it just my luck or did BL chest update reduce the average key value? >! And 100 drops is far too few to determine it. I have a friend who buys 50 at a time and their luck is all over the place, even within the same seasonal chest. >! >! Basically, you want enough data so that you have at least 20 and hopefully 50 drops in each category. The idea is that you want to make sure that a lucky streak doesn't make it seem like something is more common than the real drop rate. >! >! For example if the true drop rate is 1:100, you can imagine going 99 rolls without it. And it's not crazy to go another 99 rolls without again, which would then leave you with getting 2 nearly in a row. If it happened that way, you'd know you got super lucky. But if it happened in reverse, first the hot streak, then the bad streak that evened out your drops... well, it would seem like a nerf. >! >! Thus to answer your question of whether "it's just luck," we need more than a few people posting their results in the forum or on reddit. It doesn't have to be "scientific," but neither can it be "relative" experience. >! >! Now, if you just want to hear from other people about their hard luck or good luck stories, that's fine. However, it wasn't what you originally asked for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offair.2563 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Rng = Rng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charrbeque.8729 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Out of 25 keys, I got 2 Crimson Lion weapon skins. No other uncommon or better items. Was hoping for that new bow/quiver set. Oh well. RNG is RNG. At least I can sell the weapon skins for a little gold. (under 20g for each of them :/ ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laila Lightness.8742 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Out of 25 i got 50 merch expresses honestly the rng gods hate me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jitsuryoku.9038 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > You can't figure out your luck from "relative experience." > [other stuff] > Now, if you just want to hear from other people about their hard luck or good luck stories, that's fine. However, it wasn't what you originally asked for. You're reading into it way too much. Relative experience (especially if it's relative to previous opens in bulks) is exactly what I'm asking for. For instance, if somebody opened 200+ chests in bulks in last year and 50 this year, they can form an opinion if the results seemed similar, better or worse. **A side note for anyone (for some reason) looking for science in this**: There is 1 very reliable metric in BL chests and that's claim ticket scraps (or tickets themselves, worth 10 scraps), because they have (or had....) high drop rate. Before BL chest overhaul, when they removed boosters, the rate of scraps (where 1 full ticket was counted as 10 scraps) was roughly 1scrap/1key (it was listed in wiki with community research data and had a thread or 2 in reddit) and that's what I was getting at the time (give or take 10% on each bulk). After overhaul I was getting between 0.7-0.8 scrap / key (~400-500 keys used in total between overhaul and recent update). With yesterday's 100 keys the rate was 0.18 / key. Since we're not talking about rare items, but items that were previously had an average drop rate of 1 / key, a drop rate of 0.18/key is an insane statistical anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The OP has reworded their post title to clarify that they are interested in anecdotes, not about measuring the value of the contents (whether absolute or relative to last month's chest offerings). Accordingly, I'm hiding my previous comments, since they were germane to the original phrasing and/or to comments made in defense of that phrasing. >! > @"Jitsuryoku.9038" said: >! > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: >! > > >! > > You can't figure out your luck from "relative experience." >! > > [other stuff] >! > > Now, if you just want to hear from other people about their hard luck or good luck stories, that's fine. However, it wasn't what you originally asked for. >! > >! > You're reading into it way too much. Relative experience (especially if it's relative to previous opens in bulks) is exactly what I'm asking for. >! >! Then please change your post to reflect your actual question. The title at the time of the original post (and as I type) is: >! > Is it just my luck or did BL chest update reduce the average key value? >! That's a question about statistics and requires data to answer, data that we are unlikely to ever have. >! >! > What sort of drops did you get from your Lunar New Years BL chests? >! That's a question that can be answered however people want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jitsuryoku.9038 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > @"Jitsuryoku.9038" said: > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > You can't figure out your luck from "relative experience." > > > [other stuff] > > > Now, if you just want to hear from other people about their hard luck or good luck stories, that's fine. However, it wasn't what you originally asked for. > > > > You're reading into it way too much. Relative experience (especially if it's relative to previous opens in bulks) is exactly what I'm asking for. > > Then please change your post to reflect your actual question. The title at the time of the original post (and as I type) is: > > Is it just my luck or did BL chest update reduce the average key value? > That's a question about statistics and requires data to answer, data that we are unlikely to ever have. > > > What sort of drops did you get from your Lunar New Years BL chests? > That's a question that can be answered however people want. It's changed, I hope people start replying to the question rather than the format of the question now..... I was gonna say "people aren't going to assume that I expect them to list scientific evidence to the question in topic", but then I remembered the first reply and realized you might be right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cragga the Eighty Third.60 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I bought 5 keys. Got one Crimson Lion Dye pack, one Season 1 box, two wardobe unlocks, nothing else memorable. From one of the lucky envelopes, I got a junk item worth five gold, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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