I have one (early) question about Sigil of Mischief and Rune of Snowball...

[Astrolicus.3716]

_This is a bit early,_ but I would like to know **if** the price of Sigil of Mischief and Rune of Snowball will drop by December, it could happen? I have the important things prepared for Winter's Presence but sadly x50 Sigil of Mischief and Rune of Snowball still too expensive.

 

Will the price go "down" in December?

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Astrolicus.3716" said:

> _This is a bit early,_ but I would like to know **if** the price of Sigil of Mischief and Rune of Snowball will drop by December, it could happen? I have the important things prepared for Winter's Presence but sadly x50 Sigil of Mischief and Rune of Snowball still too expensive.

>

> Will the price go "down" in December?

 

It's unlikely to go down, unless ANet introduces new sources. They **did not** add new sources last year. There's little reason to imagine they will do so this year, although let's see what happens during Halloween.

 

Generally the cheapest is a few months before Wintersday, the most expensive has been during the festival. (Although it doesn't make sense, because the two associated achievements can be done all year round, unlike some of the others.)

 

##### Recent history

* Snowfall is running currently at around 2.8g; 6 months ago, it was about 1.7g. During last Wintersday, it went up to nearly 6g.

* Mischief is running at 7.5g now; 6 months ago was 8g; and lowest sustained was around 6g in August. Last Wintersday, it hit 9-10g.

 

##### sources

Use 'all' for the last 6 months. Use 'full history' and then 'all' to show the price since introduction (and then you can move sliders to narrow it down to specific time periods).

* https://www.gw2tp.com/item/68436-superior-sigil-of-mischief

* https://www.gw2tp.com/item/68437-superior-rune-of-snowfall

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

PS It's never too early to ask market related questions (it's more often too late).

PPS We can't really answer the question about what will happen. We're mostly stuck with what has happened in the past, and using the "if trends and/or patterns continue, then the following will happen."

[Dreddo.9865]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> They **did not** add new sources last year. There's little reason to imagine they will do so this year, although let's see what happens during Halloween.

Well that may have happened because they had data of available sigils/runes in players' inventories so they felt they didn't have to intervene. But this number may have changed dramatically.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Dreddo.9865" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > They **did not** add new sources last year. There's little reason to imagine they will do so this year, although let's see what happens during Halloween.

> Well that may have happened because they had data of available sigils/runes in players' inventories so they felt they didn't have to intervene. But this number may have changed dramatically.

Personally, I think it's unlikely that ANet will add a faucet simply because the TP supply is down. Here's why:

 

Before Wintersday 2016, the Mischief supply on the TP was 500k; after, it dropped to 15k. Without adding new sources, that increased to 40k before W2017, hitting a low of ~450 (less than 0.5k) following the end of the festival. The TP supply is now 7k. At first glance, that supports the idea that ANet would want to grow the supply somehow.

 

However, if we compare the volume traded between W2016 & W2017, we see a different story. At the start of W2016, we saw peak numbers of 30k/day traded and then varying from 7k down to 3k, so easily 180-200k sold during that holiday period. In contrast, peak numbers for 2017 were under 5k and mostly under 2k... closer to 40k for the same period a year later.

 

In other words, while it's true that the readily-available stocks have gone down, the interest in purchasing has dropped too.

 

So if ANet does add a new source for the sigil, there will be other reasons. And it's entirely possible the new source might not be anything more than one sigil per 10k Wintersday Gifts (people open so many of those that even that would create a noticeable addition).