BL Keys Finally On Sale — 20% Off (Plus Caveats)

[Daddicus.6128]

> @"Bloodstealer.5978" said:

> So.. why does it state under the sale price a normal price would be 5/625.. that's utter rubbish. It has always been 5/450gems without discount.

> They are playing off the 1 key price .. bad practice is bad.

 

It's probably a bug. Other sales have had issues like this. Look up March Sale in the wiki, and look back at previous sales. Last year there were two with the wrong prices.

[Daddicus.6128]

One caveat this year on keys: the chests currently have one of the two guaranteed items as a PvP/WvW item. If you're PvE-only, I recommend waiting to open the chests.

[Bloodstealer.5978]

> @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> One caveat this year on keys: the chests currently have one of the two guaranteed items as a PvP/WvW item. If you're PvE-only, I recommend waiting to open the chests.

 

If you mean the pots.. they have been in there since before the launch of Warclaw, if not even earlier tbh.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Bloodstealer.5978" said:

> > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > One caveat this year on keys: the chests currently have one of the two guaranteed items as a PvP/WvW item. If you're PvE-only, I recommend waiting to open the chests.

>

> If you mean the pots.. they have been in there since before the launch of Warclaw, if not even earlier tbh.

 

[since 5 March](https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/70399/game-update-notes-march-5-2019), exactly the day the Warclaw launched.

(Prior to that, we had the "Black Lion Material Bag: Thunderhead.")

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

> @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > @"Bloodstealer.5978" said:

> > So.. why does it state under the sale price a normal price would be 5/625.. that's utter rubbish. It has always been 5/450gems without discount.

> > They are playing off the 1 key price .. bad practice is bad.

>

> It's probably a bug. Other sales have had issues like this. Look up March Sale in the wiki, and look back at previous sales. Last year there were two with the wrong prices.

 

It's not a 'bug'. The Gem Store has posted group/bundle discounts in that manner since the beginning. It's just the way it's always been done.

[Daddicus.6128]

How is that not a bug?

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> How is that not a bug?

 

How is it remotely a bug? It's technically accurate.

It's not helpful in making an informed decision and it gives a lot of people the feeling that we're being manipulated, so it might be a poor choice. Regardless, it's just a choice on how to present the data.

[Biff.5312]

Unfortunately for me I already have every item in the 'uncommon' category of the blc rewards, so I think it would be foolish to hope for much of anything new if I were to open boxes now. Maybe next cycle.

[Witch of Doom.5739]

> @"Ok I Did It.2854" said:

> After watching the way the drops have been steadily getting worse over the months from the chests, ( my last 50 keys didnt give anything outside of common ) i would recommend only ever buying keys when on offer, as its clear the drops are worse than ever from the BLCs.

>

> Also its strange the BLCs did not get an update this week for when the patch went live.

 

While I know it's RNG, I agree that drops have been getting steadily worse in the last few months, like since Wintersday. Neither I nor anyone I know has gotten anything beyond common. Not a single thing.

[Bloodstealer.5978]

> @"Witch of Doom.5739" said:

> > @"Ok I Did It.2854" said:

> > After watching the way the drops have been steadily getting worse over the months from the chests, ( my last 50 keys didnt give anything outside of common ) i would recommend only ever buying keys when on offer, as its clear the drops are worse than ever from the BLCs.

> >

> > Also its strange the BLCs did not get an update this week for when the patch went live.

>

> While I know it's RNG, I agree that drops have been getting steadily worse in the last few months, like since Wintersday. Neither I nor anyone I know has gotten anything beyond common. Not a single thing.

 

TBH I too have noticed a severe drop of in the quality of drops from BLC's, which will only lead me to push back from further purchase. RNG is one thing, but after a while it can feel like the dice are being loaded.

As for how they chose once again to market their sale price.. it is nothing short of shady to attempt to show the sale is better than it actually is in reality.

If you market 1 off, 5 off 25 off as a set price then at least promote the sale prices the same way. Yes technically the multiple purchases while on sale look awesome if you look at the corresponding single key alternative, but who in their right mind would purchase 5 single keys rather than buying a 5 key pack that always costs less... just very bad practice and makes ANET look desperate imo.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

* Unless you are opening ~1000 chests at a time, it is simply not possible to tell if the quality of drops is good or bad, because...

* The measured drop rates are low; it takes large samples to start seeing "average" luck. 50 or even 100 chests is too few.

 

Buy keys (or any other RNG/lotto reward item) for the fun you have while imagining what might drop; do not buy with any expectations at all for the actual drops.

 

In simpler terms: the odds are never in our favor.

[Daddicus.6128]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > How is that not a bug?

>

> How is it remotely a bug? It's technically accurate.

> It's not helpful in making an informed decision and it gives a lot of people the feeling that we're being manipulated, so it might be a poor choice. Regardless, it's just a choice on how to present the data.

 

Then why do almost all of the entries have the correct off-sale prices? It's not at all accurate.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > > How is that not a bug?

> >

> > How is it remotely a bug? It's technically accurate.

> > It's not helpful in making an informed decision and it gives a lot of people the feeling that we're being manipulated, so it might be a poor choice. Regardless, it's just a choice on how to present the data.

>

> Then why do almost all of the entries have the correct off-sale prices? It's not at all accurate.

 

What entries are you looking at?

You can see in the very same month that the last time Gnashblade offered both single and bulk items at a discount, the comparison was on the collective single-item price, not on the retail bulk price. Shared Inventory Slots are 700 gems for one, 1890 for three and yet the March Madness discount was compared to 2100 (3*700).

 

2100 is the price that three slots cost, if you bought them one at a time. So it's not incorrect to use that number.

(And again, I don't argue that it's a good idea or helpful, just that the numbers are accurate.)

 

> @"Astral Projections.7320" said:

> 30% off

> [sale ending soon (less than 24 hours)](https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/comment/868634/#Comment_868634)

> **Shared Inventory Slot** 1@~~700~~490 gems. 3@~~2100~~1323 gems. 5@~~3500~~1960 gems

 

 

[OutOfOrder.3719]

It's normal to take 30 keys to get the uncommon BLC exclusive item.

 

It's unlucky to take 60 keys to receive the same item, but also considered normal to get the exclusive item.

 

It's absolutely horrible RNG if it takes 120 keys to get that one uncommon item that you want. What people don't realize is that they are usually receiving other uncommon weapon skins they don't necessarily want, before receiving that one exclusive item of the month.

 

What most players don't realize is that every type of key for the month has a different theoretical hold behind each type of chest opening. ANET sets the probability before the new black lion chests go live for players to access.

 

From working in the Casino industry, in comparison to Slot machines, I can tell you different chests can be adjusted to have a lower, medium, or higher probablity of yielding the 5th category reward.

 

For example, the Fortune chests for Lunar year 2019 had a lower chance of producing the uncommon/rate category and could be considered tight Slot machines. However, each guaranteed lunar year item yielded anywhere from 1 to 5 gold with each key.

 

Whereas the current War-Torn chests have a higher probability of yielding the 5th uncommon/rare category. But the WvW/PvP boost item isn't really that valuable or unique. But each key also awards 1 gold per key on average.

 

I'm making these observations based on my own experience opening keys and based on watching several Streamers opening Black Lion chests for 2019.

 

Some particular streamers that I have watched are Cellofrag, Mighty Teapot and Vallun. If you don't believe that the theoretical hold can be adjusted every month depending on the potential rewards, please Watch those streamers videos :)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"OutOfOrder.3719" said:

> It's normal to take 30 keys to get the uncommon BLC exclusive item. It's unlucky to take 60 keys to receive the same item, but also considered normal to get the exclusive item.

It is a fallacy to say that there is a normal or "considered normal" amount of keys. What we can say is how likely it is for something to happen, not whether it's "normal." We can say that 50% of people will get [fill in the blank] within 50 keys and 50% will not. We can say that only 1% will need 200 keys. But we cannot say that there is any number at all that people should expect to need.

 

> From working in the Casino industry, in comparison to Slot machines, I can tell you different chests can be adjusted to have a lower, medium, or higher probablity of yielding the 5th category reward.

Sure, there's no guarantee that all BL chests have the same drop rate patterns, which is why I collect the data in distinct bundles. As it turns out, the numbers for 250 or 500 chests opened are fairly consistent in the broad patterns of how many uncommon+rare drops. It's always been close to 10%, with the main difference being how many of those are rare.

 

> For example, the Fortune chests for Lunar year 2019 had an extremely low chance ...

> Whereas the current War-Torn chests have a higher probability

Without producing any numbers, it's statistically unhelpful to make any claims about the rate.

 

> Some particular streamers that I have watched are Cellofrag, Mighty Teapot and Vallun. If you don't believe that the theoretical hold can be adjusted every month depending on the potential rewards, please Watch those streamers videos :)

I have collected data from several streamers (include the first & third; I didn't realize Teapot opened chests in bulk).

If you have the numbers written down, I'm happy to include them in my samples and compare. If not, I'll take video links and if/when I have time, I'll see if I can collect from watching (sometimes it's not realistically possible due to how some streamers manage their inventory along the way).

 

The only thing I can't estimate is: if a drop is uncommon, what's the chance that it's an account-bound unlock versus a BL weapon skin? That's due to the fact that such unlocks can only drop once per person, so there will never be sufficient data.

 

What we can estimate is the odds for someone getting _any_ uncommon drops at all. For example (as posted earlier in the thread).

 

> * From 100 keys, [the chance of receiving 5 or fewer uncommon drops is over 5%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+100+trials,+less+than+6+successes), i.e. someone we know is going to be very unlucky.

> * From 'only' 25 keys, the chance of [not receiving any uncommon drops is over 7%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+25+trials,+less+than+1+successes).

> * [The chance of getting 0 uncommon or better from 50 keys is 0.5%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+50+trials,+less+than+1+successes)

 

So while it's not likely that you or I go 50 chests in a row without any uncommon drops, it's going to happen to a lot of people.

[Daddicus.6128]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > > > How is that not a bug?

> > >

> > > How is it remotely a bug? It's technically accurate.

> > > It's not helpful in making an informed decision and it gives a lot of people the feeling that we're being manipulated, so it might be a poor choice. Regardless, it's just a choice on how to present the data.

> >

> > Then why do almost all of the entries have the correct off-sale prices? It's not at all accurate.

>

> What entries are you looking at?

> You can see in the very same month that the last time Gnashblade offered both single and bulk items at a discount, the comparison was on the collective single-item price, not on the retail bulk price. Shared Inventory Slots are 700 gems for one, 1890 for three and yet the March Madness discount was compared to 2100 (3*700).

>

> 2100 is the price that three slots cost, if you bought them one at a time. So it's not incorrect to use that number.

> (And again, I don't argue that it's a good idea or helpful, just that the numbers are accurate.)

>

> > @"Astral Projections.7320" said:

> > 30% off

> > [sale ending soon (less than 24 hours)](https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/comment/868634/#Comment_868634)

> > **Shared Inventory Slot** 1@~~700~~490 gems. 3@~~2100~~1323 gems. 5@~~3500~~1960 gems

>

>

 

Why do you quote Astral Projection's post in the forum. The Wiki and the game itself show the facts? Shared Inventory Slot data copied from the Wiki:

 

700 (490 = 70%)

3/1890 (1323 = 70%)

5/2800 (1890 = 70%)

 

There were 5 multi-item combo prices discounted this year, and four of their listings were correct (including the one you referred to). So, yes, it's an error. The wiki even says "wrongly displayed as" for that one item. (Last year there were two incorrect, but one was a single-item, and the other was the same incorrect listing as this year.)

 

As to whether it has been done this way forever, that's wrong, too. BL chest keys were correctly listed two years ago, at least according to the Wiki's March Sale page.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> Why do you quote Astral Projection's post in the forum. The Wiki and the game itself show the facts?

The wiki is written by players, just like you, I, or Astral Projection's. It's got no greater claim on "facts." In this case, A/P copied from Gnashblade; the wiki did not.

 

Regardless: the numbers are accurate, based on the retail cost of a single key. I don't blame you for disliking ANet's choice to present the numbers this way; I don't like it either. That doesn't mean it's a bug.

[Daddicus.6128]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > Why do you quote Astral Projection's post in the forum. The Wiki and the game itself show the facts?

> The wiki is written by players, just like you, I, or Astral Projection's. It's got no greater claim on "facts." In this case, A/P copied from Gnashblade; the wiki did not.

>

> Regardless: the numbers are accurate, based on the retail cost of a single key. I don't blame you for disliking ANet's choice to present the numbers this way; I don't like it either. That doesn't mean it's a bug.

 

Four were accurate, one was not. I visually verified in-game three of the five myself (probably the other two as well, but I don't actually remember those prices); only the one was mislabeled.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > > Why do you quote Astral Projection's post in the forum. The Wiki and the game itself show the facts?

> > The wiki is written by players, just like you, I, or Astral Projection's. It's got no greater claim on "facts." In this case, A/P copied from Gnashblade; the wiki did not.

> >

> > Regardless: the numbers are accurate, based on the retail cost of a single key. I don't blame you for disliking ANet's choice to present the numbers this way; I don't like it either. That doesn't mean it's a bug.

>

> Four were accurate, one was not. I visually verified in-game three of the five myself (probably the other two as well, but I don't actually remember those prices); only the one was mislabeled.

First, it's a mistake to claim inaccuracy. It's technically true that the cost of 5 would be five times the cost of 1, 10 would cost 10x, and 25 would cost 25x. It's _also true_ there is a bulk discount, even at retail prices. So this isn't about "accurate" vs "inaccurate" as you keep typing; it's about how we feel when presented with a display that uses the single-unit price multiplied by X.

 

Second, my experience is that this is a consistent practice, since launch. It frequently gets pointed out on r/guildwars2 and here on the forums (as well as the old forums). Do you actually have specific examples that you can point to in which you are convinced Gnashblade used the retail bulk price rather than retail single-unit cumulative price?

 

This isn't new to this BL Key sale, it's not new to March Madness. And it's literally not a bug; it's a presentation choice by ANet.

(I happen to think it's a bad choice on their part. Unfortunately, they don't check with me first before going ahead with their plans.)

[Daddicus.6128]

Because this "error" happened in 2018, I checked all of the prices as each day's sale occurred. I happen to remember the price for shared inventory slot (because it wasn't showing, and I had to look them up elsewhere.) I also remember the price for heroic booster (because I looked at buying them until I realized that I really wanted item boosters). Both were correct, and matched the prices listed in the March sale page on the wiki.

 

I also remember the BL keys item, because I did buy those, and I remembered that the price posted didn't match the actual prices for multi-item packs.

 

I could be mis-remembering some of the items, because I didn't look to buy all of them. But, those two above were "correct" vs. the keys being "incorrect".

 

By correct, I mean that the price discount was taken from the actual non-sale multi-item pack prices. By incorrect, I mean that the price was multiplied as you said.

 

However, I can't actually remember the prices from last year's sale (except BL Keys, because they had the same "error" as this year last year.) So, those and earlier items may or may not be correctly reflected in the wiki.

 

In any case, it's not worth worrying about now. I see your point. I think they only applied that logic to some of the multi-item packs, but it's not really important. It will just get me to double-check prices and discounts in future sales, to make sure I'm paying the correct amount.

[Biff.5312]

> @"Witch of Doom.5739" said:

> While I know it's RNG, I agree that drops have been getting steadily worse in the last few months, like since Wintersday. Neither I nor anyone I know has gotten anything beyond common. Not a single thing.

 

Meanwhile in the same period I've gotten uncommon and rare items from chests. Like you, my sample size is too small to really arrive at any conclusions, but clearly the rarer drops are happening.

[Glider.5792]

> @"Biff.5312" said:

> > @"Witch of Doom.5739" said:

> > While I know it's RNG, I agree that drops have been getting steadily worse in the last few months, like since Wintersday. Neither I nor anyone I know has gotten anything beyond common. Not a single thing.

>

> Meanwhile in the same period I've gotten uncommon and rare items from chests. Like you, my sample size is too small to really arrive at any conclusions, but clearly the rarer drops are happening.

 

_This is my speculation from what i have seen_

I have been opening many chests for months now and the drops imo did get worse over time, but not the "fifth slot". From what im paying attention to drops, it seems like the amount of wardrobe/weapon/armor unlocks that drop were nerfed quite a bit. Note that this was not a recent change, but few months ago. The first "nerf" was shortly after they were introduced, since they were droping too much, and another was further down the line, that changed the droprate to around 10-15% ?

[Etria.3642]

Hate to step in but the shared slots definitely followed the keys practice.

 

I had to remember that I'd been saving 1800-something to make the comparison to the 1323/2100 listed and then grumble a little as I paid 1445 for the same three in December.

[Nath Forge Tempete.1645]

At least ... you're all able to buy Black lion keys. I can't even if I'd want to ...

 

Well ... I could technically .... but i'm not a fan of the method tho.