Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 tl;dr sell, don't open; use the proceeds to buy the stuff you want or need The coffers are extremely overpriced for the contents, so only open if you like the thrill of imagining what might drop. The [wiki drop data for the Dragon Coffer](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dragon_Coffer/drop_rate) now includes the data **and** the [market value, both with](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dragon_Coffer/drop_rate#With_super_rare_drops) and [without rare drops](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dragon_Coffer/drop_rate#Without_super_rare_drops). So you can check without depending on finding posts like this one, whether on the forums or Reddit or youtube. At the moment of editing, those values are: * Coffers alone: 24.1s buy | 24.9s sell * **Without** super rare drops: 13.4s buy | 15.2s sell * **With** super rares: 32.6s buy | 46.9s Besides the usual caveats of crowd-sourced data collection, these additional caveats apply: * The wiki doesn't account for the value of the champ bags * The wiki doesn't place a value on the Aurene (Scion) or Tequatl (Sunless) weapons. * The _entire_ difference between the _with_ and _without_ price is determined by whether one does (or does not) get a crystal infusion, of which 3 have dropped from ~93k coffers. Roughly speaking, if you were to open 10k coffers, there's a [72% chance](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.00321374626401997%25+chance+of+success,+10000+trials,+less+than+1+successes) you wouldn't get an infusion, for a cost of 2450 gold. Another way to look at it: for 8000 gold (the approximate midpoint between the infusions buy and sell values on the TP), you could guarantee yourself an infusion or buy around 33k coffers, for which [there remains a 35% chance of getting no infusion](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.00321374626401997%25+chance+of+success,+32653+trials,+less+than+1+successes). **** ##### Original post >! tl;dr sell, don't open; use the proceeds to buy the stuff you want or need >! because too many are willing to overpay for the coffers relative to the value of the contents >! >! Alternatively, if it's worth 8-10s to you for the fun in anticipating the cool stuff you might get (spoiler alert: you won't), go ahead an open. I think that's the main reason Sutgon does this: it's sometimes just a joy to revel in one's skrittishness and chase the shinies, despite them never dropping. >! >! **** >! As with every festival, [u/Sutgon](https://old.reddit.com/user/sutgon) has sacrificed financial well-being for the sake of #science, opening 50k Dragon Coffers and (better yet) posting the market value of the contents. [The drop data also appears on the wiki](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dragon_Coffer/drop_rate) thanks to [u/SimeAI](https://old.reddit.com/user/SimeAi); I encourage you to post your own data for more #science. >! >! * [Original Post](https://redd.it/c9ea76) plus [video evidence]( ) >! * [Financial analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C-IraCHPgdEMwv35HG7IMOpLPTtxyuT3bG_jAIdiYaU#gid=975490085) >! >! Synopsis: >! * Coffers trading at ~25s >! * Contents without lucky drop valued at 16-17s >! * With lucky drop (crystal infusion): 28-34s (note: in 7 years of data, for all festivals, with tens of thousands of containers opened, this is the first infusion they have gotten) >! >! From the 16s, the most important drops are: >! * Taffy, worth ~2s (there's just so dang much of it) >! * Branded Geodermite ~2.2s (lots of unID gear) >! * Jorbreaker: ~3.1s (5-6 gold still) >! * Mordrem weapons: ~1s (low drop rates, high value); typical opener won't see many >! * Foods: 3.5-3.9s (the chieve is keeping them valuable, for now) >! * Freshwater Pearls: 0.6s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zuldari.3940 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 So what you are saying is the games rng is rigged really low ? , got it! BTW thats terrible...talk about chasing phantom carrots you will never get. GW2 has the lowest drop rates and worst rng of any mmo i have played. I used to complain about wow and its drop rates , gg gw2 sure showed them. I have opened about 2k of them myself, and i have got a bunch of dyes most of which i had, one saber, one mini. Game is rigged to hook you like a slot machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gop.8713 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 I think I've been lucky. Idk how many I've opened but I have less than one full stack of geodermites and I've gotten all the mordrem weapons at least once, one mini and a handful of jorbreakers . . . It STILL would have been better for me to sell I'm sure, but there's really nothing I'd want to spend the gold on anyway so meh . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 > @"Zuldari.3940" said: > So what you are saying is the games rng is rigged really low ? , got it! No, I'm saying that people are willing to overpay for the coffers. > GW2 has the lowest drop rates and worst rng of any mmo i have played. "Drop rates" aren't important outside the context of market value and personal value. Traditionally, before GW2, the only way to obtain rare items was to grind specific content until your eyes bled. In GW2, most everything can be traded, so you can do whatever you like, save gold, and buy it. (If you want more, then, sure, you can choose also to farm gold til your eyes bleed. The point is, you don't have to do it to acquire top gear.) > Game is rigged to hook you like a slot machine. Game is setup to give you options. There's absolutely no reason to open the coffers for anything except if you hope to win the lottery. And lotto is always tiny odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 > @"Gop.8713" said: > It STILL would have been better for me to sell I'm sure, but there's really nothing I'd want to spend the gold on anyway so meh . . . Only "financially better." If you had fun opening, and you like what you got (mostly) and had no particular use for the gold, then it was better for you to open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasynaptic.1093 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Welcome to the age of 'surprise mechanics' ;j Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ganathar.4956 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 There is a reason why people are willing to overpay for the coffers. They can contain some account bound items that you can't purchase on the TP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 > @"Ganathar.4956" said: > There is a reason why people are willing to overpay for the coffers. They can contain some account bound items that you can't purchase on the TP. Sure, there are always reasons why people are willing to overpay for RNG containers. And those reasons are always statistically poor choices. Fortunately for human beings, "statistics" aren't the sole arbiter of what brings us joy. Note in this case the chances that you'll get those bound items from playing the game is probably better and all that costs is time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VDAC.2137 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 > @"Zuldari.3940" said: > So what you are saying is the games rng is rigged really low ? , got it! BTW thats terrible...talk about chasing phantom carrots you will never get. GW2 has the lowest drop rates and worst rng of any mmo i have played. I used to complain about wow and its drop rates , gg gw2 sure showed them. I have opened about 2k of them myself, and i have got a bunch of dyes most of which i had, one saber, one mini. You’re talking about the rarest items which are purely cosmetic and many are quite ugly anyway and only expensive because they are rare. Most MMOs make you grind and sacrifice to RNG just to get geared properly so no, GW2 has the best RNG. And if you don’t like the odds, you can sell your coffers and BLCs to those who do enjoy opening them, so you have options. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashantara.8731 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 > @"VDAC.2137" said: > You’re talking about the rarest items which are purely cosmetic and many are quite ugly anyway and only expensive because they are rare. > > Most MMOs make you grind and sacrifice to RNG just to get geared properly so no, GW2 has the best RNG. And if you don’t like the odds, you can sell your coffers and BLCs to those who do enjoy opening them, so you have options. :) Very true. The thing is, though, that, regardless of whether you like those super rare items or not, you are hoping for the drop because you want that gold. The addictive aspect can make you blind to the fact that - in the process - you are wasting more gold (and possibly real money) than you would have gotten out of it had you been super lucky. So, it is exactly like the lottery, hence countries considering to ban RNG loot boxes from all games. (I just wonder why they don't ban the lottery and casino gambling as well.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VDAC.2137 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 > @"Ashantara.8731" said: > > @"VDAC.2137" said: > > You’re talking about the rarest items which are purely cosmetic and many are quite ugly anyway and only expensive because they are rare. > > > > Most MMOs make you grind and sacrifice to RNG just to get geared properly so no, GW2 has the best RNG. And if you don’t like the odds, you can sell your coffers and BLCs to those who do enjoy opening them, so you have options. :) > > Very true. The thing is, though, that, regardless of whether you like those super rare items or not, you are hoping for the drop because you want that gold. The addictive aspect can make you blind to the fact that - in the process - you are wasting more gold (and possibly real money) than you would have gotten out of it had you been super lucky. So, it is exactly like the lottery, hence countries considering to ban RNG loot boxes from all games. (I just wonder why they don't ban the lottery and casino gambling as well.) I just wanted to point out that if those items weren’t super rare, then few people would be hoping to get them — supply and demand make the items expensive so there can be no such thing as a 500g common drop, for instance, unless it was that price to sell to vendors, in which case gold itself would be devalued and the price of everything on the TP would go up. I don’t find it fun to purchase or do things for the rare lucky instance, so I don’t. Those who feel differently are free to do so but there is no sense in then complaining about how much time/money you spent in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ganathar.4956 Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > @"Ganathar.4956" said: > > There is a reason why people are willing to overpay for the coffers. They can contain some account bound items that you can't purchase on the TP. > > Sure, there are always reasons why people are willing to overpay for RNG containers. And those reasons are always statistically poor choices. Fortunately for human beings, "statistics" aren't the sole arbiter of what brings us joy. > > Note in this case the chances that you'll get those bound items from playing the game is probably better and all that costs is time. That's true for the Tequatl and Aurene weapon skins, but you don't have real alternate ways to get the holographic minis right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vavume.8065 Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 > @"Metasynaptic.1093" said: > Welcome to the age of 'surprise mechanics' ;j What is that? like pimp my ride? they turn up and work on your car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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