Should I Sell or Should I Open? (Halloween Trick or Treat Bag Edition)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

With talk of mount skins and memoires and Joko (oh my!), we're in danger of getting distracted from every Festival farmer's favorite question:

> Should I sell my Trick or Treat Bags? Or should I open them?

 

With the follow-up:

> If I want _Touch of Madness_ or a refractor or an infusion, should I open **my bags**, buy bags to open, or just purchase on the TP?

 

#### Answer

Fortunately, the answer is almost always the same:

* Sell your bags for as much as you can get (see below for timing)

* Buy what you want/need using those funds

 

There are two notable exceptions:

* You really like playing in-game lotto, so you get more joy out of rolling the dice than of trading.

* There are one or more non-tradeable items that drop from bags that you want or need (typically: luck, sometimes a mini, although not this year)

 

The first response to this post explains why this is so, with a non-math explanation first followed by a low-math explanation second. For those interested in ALL THE MATHS, you can find links to my source data and use it to calculate your own odds. I've also included links to various other tools that can help you make your own decision.

 

 

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> * Sell your bags for as much as you can get (see below for timing)

> * Buy what you want/need using those funds

 

> The first response to this post explains why this is so, with a non-math explanation first followed by a low-math explanation second. For those interested in ALL THE MATHS, you can find links to my source data and use it to calculate your own odds. I've also included links to various other tools that can help you make your own decision.

 

****

#### Timing (for sellers or buyers)

My advice: hold onto bags until May if you have the space, otherwise sell stacks as you get them.

 

Timing can be tricky with ToT bags, because a lot of factors influence the price. Here's the _sell offer_ pattern for the 2015 and 2016 seasons:

* **2015:** day 1 prices were 6.5s, last day 7.2, and month 3, 6, & 11 (one month before new season) were respectively 8.9s, 19.9, & 17.5 — best time to sell was around May; best time to buy was the first few weeks.

* **2016:** day 1 8s, closing 5.7, & month 3, 6, & 11 were 4.9, 5.3, & 5.3 — best selling time was still around May but it was a lot worse than the year before; best purchase time was 3 months after.

 

In other words: really depends on how much people farm this year.

(The reason for the heavy price drop from 2015 to 2016? ANet eliminated DR in 2016, masteries made picking up drops easier, and the season lasted longer.)

 

****

 

#### Non-math Explanation

**Why Sell:** _Short version:_ the market price of the bags includes the priciest items that aren't likely to drop for most of us. Selling provides a no-risk, guaranteed rate, whereas opening offers only the chance of good value.

 

_Details:_ The market value of bags is always going to adjust to come close to the market value of the contents, with bags _usually_ trading at a premium, because enough folks always expect to get lucky and are willing to invest extra coin for the chance. There are many exceptions, most notably in the first few hours after a bag update (or suspected one); at that point, lots of people are willing to pay a premium to be 'first' or take advantage of high initial prices, before anyone knows the drop rates.

 

However, the market value of the bags _includes_ high-priced, low-odds items, such as infusions, refractors, and the new weapon (Touch of Madness). Those opening 100k bags are going to see those items, so it makes sense for the market to include their value. However, for folks such as you or I, who maybe open 10 stacks (2500 or 4% of the big baggers), the odds are slim that we will see an "average amount" of the costliest drops.

 

**Why Buy-to-Own (instead of open):**

The chances are simply too low that you'll get the item you want unless you're opening ~100k bags.

 

****

#### Low-math Examples

**Example 1: Touch of Madness**

_Short story:_ It costs less to buy the torch than it does to get a low chance of getting one from a ToT Bag. Specifically 200 gold yields 0.3 torches on average, whereas you can buy it outright for less than 170 gold.

 

_Details:_ The new weapon, [Touch of Madness](http://wiki-en.guildwars2.com/index.php?search=Touch+of+Madness "Touch of Madness") is [currently priced at 126-165 gold](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/item/85384-Touch-of-Madness "currently priced at 126-165 gold"). 200 gold is enough to purchase around 20 stacks of ToTs, i.e. about 5000 bags. The drop rate for the torch is 6 in 100,000, so on average, opening "only" 5000 bags yields 0.3 weapons. So you could buy outright for 165 gold or buy 200 gold worth of bags for less than a 50-50 chance.

 

**Example 2: _Expected Value_**

Bags are currently prices at around 4 silver (buy or sell). The contents of the bags are valued at around 4.7 silver, which suggest that they are worth opening. That's until you remember that the odds are that most of us (opening merely thousands of bags) won't see many or perhaps any high-value drops. Specifically:

* The 'expected' value of the non-rare contents (including candy, foods, recipes, and T6 mats) is about 3.6 silver.

* Nearly 1 silver of the bag content value is based on the new weapon, which only drops 6 times out of 100k.

* The remainder of the difference is made up of other high-value, low-rate drops, including infusions & refractors, endless tonics.

 

In other words, if you open 100k bags, you'll see an average value of 4.6 silver/ToT. But if you open only 5k bags, you're likely to see mostly consumables worth a total of 3.6 silver per bag.

 

Over time, as people realize the futility of opening bags (as they remind themselves every year), the difference will start to diminish. By Halloween's End (on 6 November), it's very likely that the price of bags will have fallen to 3.5s or even 3s and the value of the contents will be very close, even including the high-value drops.

 

****

#### Resources, Including Source Data

* [Trutichup's Reddit post](https://redd.it/778dhc "Trutichup's Reddit post"), results of opening 100k bags

* Wiki, for the

1. (

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Trick-or-Treat_Bag#Contents "List of Contents")

* GW2BLTC for current prices for [ToTs](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/item/36038-Trick-or-Treat-Bag "ToTs") & [Touch of Madness](https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/item/85384-Touch-of-Madness "Touch of Madness")

* GW2 Profits, for [calculating expected values](http://www.gw2profits.com/bags.php?include=bag&sort=sell_percent1&arrange=all&materials=yes "calculating expected values") without your own spreadsheet (note: _colbymg_ is still using last year's data; they are likely opening up their own 100k bags to confirm results)

* GW2TP, for [price histories of ToTs](https://www.gw2tp.com/item/36038-trick-or-treat-bag "price histories of ToTs"). (Click on `Full History` then `All` and move sliders at the bottom to narrow the range to suit your needs.)

 

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

There's another [100k worth of data on Reddit from sutgon](https://redd.it/77lx55 "100k worth of data on Reddit from sutgon"). Doesn't change any of the conclusions:

* Opening is only worth the same as selling bags **if** you get at least average luck on the high-value drops (and most of us will get less than average since the drops rates are poor).

* Thus best way to acquire any specific item is to buy it off the TP.

* Exceptions are for gaining luck, ascended mats, or because you simply like opening bags.

[Samnang.1879]

i just got a phosophor whatever infusion (it's about 300-400gold on TP) from opening... after like 500 bags later lol... i think its worth opening. the junk u sell gives coins. but if u lazy to sort out those junk, sell the bags

[Shirlias.8104]

Since the bag price is low and corn price is medium/high, then probably opening em is not that a big loss ( overall it is, but somehow you could manage to drop something worth it, though it will still be totally RNG ).

 

Btw very accurate thread Illconceived Was Na.

Very Helpful!

[Jethro.9376]

Is this another try to manipulate the market? :/

 

Either way, thx for the effort

[Dreddo.9865]

Where does the drop rate information comes from? Is it from official sources?

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

> @Dreddo.9865 said:

> Where does the drop rate information comes from? Is it from official sources?

 

Check above, it comes from trials of opening **a couple hundred thousand** bags.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Samnang.1879" said:

> i just got a phosophor whatever infusion (it's about 300-400gold on TP) from opening... after like 500 bags later lol... i think its worth opening. the junk u sell gives coins. but if u lazy to sort out those junk, sell the bags

 

You got incredibly lucky. Two people opened **one hundred thousand bags each** and neither one got [an infusion](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Phospholuminescent_Infusion "an infusion"). It's not about being lazy or not, it's about beating the odds.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Jethro.9376" said:

> Is this another try to manipulate the market? :/

I prefer that all players have access to the same data as speculators and power traders , so they can make informed choices. That ultimately can influence prices, since there are a lot of players. So in a literal sense, yes, this is an attempt to manipulate the market so it's as fair as possible to the most number of people.

 

It's somewhat of a quixotic quest. Some people like to open bags, because it's fun (or they think they'll get lucky.) Some people like to sell with the least amount of effort. Neither group cares much about the odds, so publishing data almost always fails to have much of an impact on prices... or at least, never for very long.

 

However, a fraction of players will take a look at the numbers and decide "oh hey, it's the same money and less effort to sell bags, so I'll just do that" or "hmmn, I only have to hold on until May to make some more coin." This group will end up making more coin in the end, so for them, publishing results has a big impact.

 

>

> Either way, thx for the effort

 

You're welcome.

True thanks should go to the two Redditors who actually spent the time to (a) open 100k bags each and (b) meticulously counted their loot so that folks (mainly me) that were too lazy (or too cheap) to invest the time (or money) could benefit from their labor. I just collated their result so that forum readers would also see it.

[Mourningcry.9428]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @Samnang.1879 said:

> > i just got a phosophor whatever infusion (it's about 300-400gold on TP) from opening... after like 500 bags later lol... i think its worth opening. the junk u sell gives coins. but if u lazy to sort out those junk, sell the bags

>

> You got incredibly lucky. Two people opened **one hundred thousand bags each** and neither one got [an infusion](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Phospholuminescent_Infusion "an infusion"). It's not about being lazy or not, it's about beating the odds.

 

Obviously, they didn't know how to open them correctly... I mean, just look how easy it was for Sam.... ;)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

Here are some numbers on the _average_ results of the two Redditors scaled to 10 stacks of ToTs, i.e. from 2500 bags:

* Infusions: 0

* Any mini (Charles, Devil Dog, Zuzu): 1

* Any Oontz Necklace (i.e. Black, Green, Orange, or Teal Refreactor): 0.38

* Touch of Madness: 0.10

 

Put another way, on average, 10 stacks will yield just 1 mini, 25 stacks will yield just one refractor, and 100 stacks will yield just one of the new torches. And 400 stacks isn't enough to see an infusion (on average). Your mileage will, of course, vary.