GreyWolf.8670 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 > @TheRandomGuy.7246 said: > No marketing to bring in new players. No endgame to keep old players. Not surprised. It's not just that, the player pool is now partially divided since the HoT and PoF areas are separate purchases and some people probably didn't buy both as new players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldirtbeard.9834 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 > @Erasculio.2914 said: > The main issue with HoT's earnings is that, on the quarter after release, they fell back down to the falling pattern seen before the expansion was released. > > In other words, it looked like the expansion didn't bring long term gain to ArenaNet; if anything, it gave the impression that units were sold to the current players, and that was it. > > Now, the earnings from PoF appear to be less than those from HoT, but looks can be deceiving here. I'm more interested on what will happen on the long term - if the following quarters will return to a falling pattern from 13,557, or if there will be sustained gain with the new expansion. Keep in mind the units sold might be similar or even better considering the price difference, that said considering this lock box approach to the Mount Blitz we got this week I'm worried NCSoft wasn't happy. Actually it looks like we came in first for MMO earnings this Quarter so go GW2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyWolf.8670 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 > @Kheldorn.5123 said: > > @Lilyanna.9361 said: > > > @Kheldorn.5123 said: > > > > And yet we get all these threads about how more stuff should be free, how people deserve more for their purchase price of vanilla GW2 over 5 years ago, how convenience items and cosmetics should be cheaper or free. > > > > > > how about not selling rng scam boxes? > > > > > > how about putting into gemstore skins people want instead of making them yearly promos? > > > > > > how about considering going back to armor set creation and put them into gemstore? > > > > > > how about reconsidering some prices, to sell for less but sell more? > > > > How about realizing art is not free > > How about realizing you need to pay artists to do this > > How about realizing if you actually want to support them you will share five dollars. > > Owait. > > You want and think so-called retexturing is not hard work, and therefore which to bend everything in your favor. > > > > Oh my bad, carry on. > > But people want to pay for mounts, amors etc. They don't want rng loot boxes. I think you are capable of seeing the difference. I don't think she sees the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldirtbeard.9834 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 > @Erasculio.2914 said: > > @Cyninja.2954 said: > > And yet we get all these threads about how more stuff should be free, how people deserve more for their purchase price of vanilla GW2 over 5 years ago, how convenience items and cosmetics should be cheaper or free. > > Suddenly an earnigs report comes out and every one is concerned the game might die. Hilarious. > > Honestly, if I had to choose between GW2 dying or having the game filled with sleazy loot boxes, I would pick "GW2 dying". > > > @DanteZero.9736 said: > > Seeing this chart makes me concerned for the future of ArenaNet as a company and Guild Wars 2. > > I'm worried NCSoft might pull a City of Heroes/Villains on Anet. > > Very unlikely. Keep in mind that "dying", for a MMORPG, is very relative, but we have few examples of one being completely shut down. Take a look at Wildstar, for example - it has long been known to be a massive failure, it's also owned by NCSoft, and yet it's still there. Its results are so poor that it isn't even shown individually in the earning reports, but NCSoft has not closed it. > > However, and here we have multiple examples, often a MMORPG isn't shut down, but its development team is massively downscaled. See Wildstar (which has very little new content being produced), The Old Republic (that suffered a big downscale soon after release but still has a lot of content being produced), and so on. Is this a kind of "death"? > > MMORPGs simply aren't what they used to be back when WoW was at its peak, and everyone was looking for a property to turn into one. Which big MMORPG has been released since 2016? Which one is a really big success right now? Other than WoW and Final Fantasy XIV, the others aren't doing that well. Black Desert Online, Wildstar, The Elder Scrolls Online, Neverwinter, ArcheAge, The Secret World, Blade & Soul, TERA, The Old Republic, Rift, Aion... Are those really healthy, filled with players? Or are they just making do? Making due, take SWtoR and Aion with their recent server mergers for example, or game shifts such as SWtoR focusing on Single Player Story Driven Content, or The Secret World turning into Guild Wars 1/DDO with limited map sizes for population and less reliance on larger groups. To be honest I have no idea how Rift/Arche Age/Wild Star are still around (Cthulhu must be involved there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayumi Spender.1082 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 > @TexZero.7910 said: > > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said: > > I'm confused as the charts show that GW2 is doing well but the comments are seeing something bad. > > I'm puzzled here. > > Nothing new, no one actually pulled up the link and read the report. Just misinterpret the graph. > > Some people have caught on to this but the unit cost of PoF is roughly half of that compared to HoT meaning that PoF's player retention/acquisition is pretty good if not equal to HoT. > > Also they're YoY earnings growth is pretty silly, so the fear of the game going somewhere soon is unfounded. > I will assume I'm blinding as I'm not seeing a link in the 1st post or I would've clicked as I'm nosier than a Probopass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haishao.6851 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said: > > @TexZero.7910 said: > > > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said: > > > I'm confused as the charts show that GW2 is doing well but the comments are seeing something bad. > > > I'm puzzled here. > > > > Nothing new, no one actually pulled up the link and read the report. Just misinterpret the graph. > > > > Some people have caught on to this but the unit cost of PoF is roughly half of that compared to HoT meaning that PoF's player retention/acquisition is pretty good if not equal to HoT. > > > > Also they're YoY earnings growth is pretty silly, so the fear of the game going somewhere soon is unfounded. > > > > I will assume I'm blinding as I'm not seeing a link in the 1st post or I would've clicked as I'm nosier than a Probopass. You can get it there http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/quarterly.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Healix.5819 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Here's a chart of the earnings and with reddit and forum activity. PoF launched at the very end of the quarter, so it's essentially only pre-purchase sales, but judging by the current activity, which is only a month into the fourth quarter, they're on track to return to pre-PoF levels and likely continue on the usual decline. The increase in activity from PoF is about 65% of what HoT saw, but to be fair, HoT had a year-long hype train and major advertising. PoF has seen about 66% of HoT's first quarter sales so far, though keep in mind that HoT had an entire quarter of sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spurnshadow.3678 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 If you delve further into their statements, this one says that US/EU sales increased 13% qoq (that's quarter over quarter) on the back of GW2 performance. That's not much of an increase with an expansion. If one goes back to their Q4'15 statement, they had a 75% sales increase in US/EU qoq. Also, it's obvious that they're making massive profit on the back of mobile platform. Their net income (that's income after expenses) increased 792% qoq and 474% yoy (year over year) the majority of which came from mobile gaming. That's massive. I'd say the other thing one could reasonably conclude from this is that more effort will be put towards mobile gaming. While they may not dump IPs like GW2, I would guess that they would not want much more, or even less resources going into GW2, but their financial statements don't go into that much detail to determine what the operating expenses are for each IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dovienya.6597 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 > @Lilyanna.9361 said: > > @Kheldorn.5123 said: > > > @Lilyanna.9361 said: > > > > @Kheldorn.5123 said: > > > > > And yet we get all these threads about how more stuff should be free, how people deserve more for their purchase price of vanilla GW2 over 5 years ago, how convenience items and cosmetics should be cheaper or free. > > > > > > > > how about not selling rng scam boxes? > > > > > > > > how about putting into gemstore skins people want instead of making them yearly promos? > > > > > > > > how about considering going back to armor set creation and put them into gemstore? > > > > > > > > how about reconsidering some prices, to sell for less but sell more? > > > > > > How about realizing art is not free > > > How about realizing you need to pay artists to do this > > > How about realizing if you actually want to support them you will share five dollars. > > > Owait. > > > You want and think so-called retexturing is not hard work, and therefore which to bend everything in your favor. > > > > > > Oh my bad, carry on. > > > > But people want to pay for mounts, amors etc. They don't want rng loot boxes. I think you are capable of seeing the difference. > > These are the same people that are notorious and have a hard time with buying an expansion, let along putting down money with or without the expansions. > > Even with the money made currently, they can make changes that can very much bring people back. These people are not willing to support the game, which therefore they are becoming the detriment. > > Why do you think games rely on subs, or the communities are much calmer there? As soon as you pull away from b2p or sub to play, you get people not inclined on supporting the game and instead leech. > > Guild Wars was better off being b2p. Hands down. https://help.guildwars2.com/hc/en-us/articles/230165307-Account-types-Free-Core-HoT F2P accounts cannot post on the forums, nor map chat. Yet somehow there are a great many people with the offensive opinion that they don't want to pay for random skins in both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Behellagh.1468 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @Spurnshadow.3678 said: > If you delve further into their statements, this one says that US/EU sales increased 13% qoq (that's quarter over quarter) on the back of GW2 performance. That's not much of an increase with an expansion. If one goes back to their Q4'15 statement, they had a 75% sales increase in US/EU qoq. Also, it's obvious that they're making massive profit on the back of mobile platform. Their net income (that's income after expenses) increased 792% qoq and 474% yoy (year over year) the majority of which came from mobile gaming. That's massive. I'd say the other thing one could reasonably conclude from this is that more effort will be put towards mobile gaming. While they may not dump IPs like GW2, I would guess that they would not want much more, or even less resources going into GW2, but their financial statements don't go into that much detail to determine what the operating expenses are for each IP. Well how much of that is swamped out by players buying the $80 package, including the $50 worth of gems for $25 than their quarterly gem purchasing? That's how you only get 31.5% YoY, 48.6% QoQ, increase in GW2 income from an expansion. Well that and a 40% reduction in the price of the base expansion. Look, if someone droped $25 a month on gems and instead prepurchase PoF Ultimate, that only moves their quarterly purchases from $75 to $105 ($25 for July, $80 for the expansion), or 40%. Expectations are ridiculous here. The game out income GW1 (21 Quarters, GW1 - 183,821 million Won; GW2 - 598,867 million Won) over 3 times. That increase in NA + EU income hides the fact that everything else NCSoft sells in that area, their combined income went down 19.6% QoQ. I would love it if people understand a couple of things from these quarterly reports. First, NA + EU income is, and will always be, small fish compared with Asia, even ignoring mobile. That of the games marketed in NA + EU that were created there, only the GW franchise has shown any success. GW2 isn't going anywhere, anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devata.6589 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Sadly, it is exactly what I expected to happen, and said before Source: https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Quarterly-reports-Q4-2016/page/3#post6493073 / Archive: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Quarterly-reports-Q4-2016/page/3#post6493073 And https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/How-s-Guild-Wars-doing-after-colin-leaving/first#post6465658 Archive: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/How-s-Guild-Wars-doing-after-colin-leaving/first#post6465658 “I am afraid sales for the next xpac will be considerately lower.” / “but I am afraid that sales will be lower than hoped (even if the expansion is really good)” Back then, on the forum the idea was that when the next expansion (so PoF) would come, things would get better again if it would be a good expansion. I always said (even before the release of HoT) that HoT would bet the last real opportunity for Anet to get things back on track. It does not matter if PoF is good because people who did not come back with HoT are not likely to come back 2 years later, and people who did come back with HoT but got bored are also not very likely to come back with the second expansion. Therefore, even if it is good, they will not even see it. I will not go into what did go wrong as I talked about that for years on the forum, most people know my ideas about that, and it does not matter anymore. I talked about it back then because things could still change; now it is too late for that. However, since I started talking about this (about half a year after release) I always said that in my opinion their approach would mostly be damaging in the long-term. That is also, what we have been seeing. I would rather have been wrong, but it is what it is. Some people say that we should mostly look at Q4 because this only has 1 week of PoF release in it. That is a valid point, but at the same time you can expect that most sales will be in that first week (at least with an expansion like this), and we now see a result of 20145 (KRW MN), it is not likely it will catch up (enough) with the 37331 (KRW MN) that HoT managed to generate. The results we see here are only a little higher than the ones we did see with GW1, but as far as I know, with a much bigger team. You can draw your own conclusions from that. If you want to keep the same quality, you will need the same team. Lower quality means even less players. Add age to it and things do not look so good I am afraid. Sad, this game had a lot of potential and could imho be much more then it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
troops.8276 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 It is still making money and will continue to do so for years to come. How good a product it is (or could of been) is entirely subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devata.6589 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @morrolan.9608 said: > Figures are definitely concerning however we will have to wait for next quarters earnings to get the full picture on PoF. I will say that having lowered the price anet would have expected to sell more units and that doesn't appear to have happened I have been watching the numbers for years. It is it likely they will go up much. Not in a way, that it matches the 37000 at least. Your right, the Q4 numbers will give the final answer, but do not expect too much of it. In these years, I have seen people looking for “the next quarter” hoping for better results many times before. Usually without any luck. Not to mention that Q4 tents to be the best Q of the year anyway. So even if Q4 would be somewhat 'fine', then you get the backlash with Q1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devata.6589 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @Coulter.2315 said: > Everyone should consider these graphs when complaining about the mount stable, remember PoF was cheaper than HoT. I hope the sales jump up for Q4 because HoT was reaching 37Bil after its launch. How about this, it's the other way around the "mount stable" (well, the same type of practice over the last years) is to blame for these graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrubySzymek.1362 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @Devata.6589 said: > > @Coulter.2315 said: > > Everyone should consider these graphs when complaining about the mount stable, remember PoF was cheaper than HoT. I hope the sales jump up for Q4 because HoT was reaching 37Bil after its launch. > > How about this, it's the other way around the "mount stable" (well, the same type of practice over the last years) is to blame for these graphs? I think it's not just this but a sum of multiple bad decisions. As well as a natural shrinking of playerbase. This is old game afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devata.6589 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @maddoctor.2738 said: > > @Nereikia.3507 said: > > But the thing is their money is none of our business. What really makes me sad is how bad PoF (and the current state of the game in general) is. That's a shame. > > > > Keep in mind that Path of Fire is half price compared to Heart of Thorns so having less revenue is a given, provided the player base didn't grow in the mean time. Now how much lower we'll see. > Or between > @maddoctor.2738 said: > So Guild Wars 2 went back to between Q1 2015 revenue (20026) and Q3 2015 (20699) (Pre Heart of Thorns both) Or between Q1 2016 (30557) and Q2 2016 (15894) (Post HoT both). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devata.6589 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @Kheldorn.5123 said: > > @Devata.6589 said: > > > @Coulter.2315 said: > > > Everyone should consider these graphs when complaining about the mount stable, remember PoF was cheaper than HoT. I hope the sales jump up for Q4 because HoT was reaching 37Bil after its launch. > > > > How about this, it's the other way around the "mount stable" (well, the same type of practice over the last years) is to blame for these graphs? > > I think it's not just this but a sum of multiple bad decisions. As well as a natural shrinking of playerbase. This is old game afterall. Yeah, it's a sum of things. I think this is a big reason, but your correct, it's not the only thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelanard.5806 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 I am quite confident that if they lowered their prices in the gemstore, they'd earn a lot more... A lot of players doesn't use it, because it's not compelling to use it, due to unreal overpricing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Healix.5819 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @Devata.6589 said: > Some people say that we should mostly look at Q4 because this only has 1 week of PoF release in it. That is a valid point, but at the same time you can expect that most sales will be in that first week (at least with an expansion like this), and we now see a result of 20145 (KRW MN), it is not likely it will catch up (enough) with the 37331 (KRW MN) that HoT managed to generate. People are wary after HoT burned them and PoF in general wasn't really advertised, whereas HoT had the major events at PAX and E3 and the year-long hype train was steadily bringing in more sales. Regardless, HoT launched early into the quarter and saw similar sales in the next. If PoF is anything similar, the sales should be much higher next quarter. The initial sales aren't even that important, it's the aftermath. Expansions should bring people in and grow; not continue to decline as if it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProtoGunner.4953 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Also don't forget the fact that GW2 never officially released in Korea, which is even more ironic that NCSoft didn't want 'asian' culture mixed with 'western' culture and cut the Canthan district in Divinity's Reach and also made it uncertain whether a Canthan/Faction campaign will ever be released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evolute.6239 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Yeah, if anything, it will be even or higher next report. Remember that after the xpac launched, stuff like the mounts hit the front page of Reddit. Regardless, I doubt anything will change. The fact that Aion and especially Wildstar exists is proof of that. Beyond GW2, NCWest is struggling a bit to find a niche in the Western market and GW2 allows them to fit into that a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vayne.8563 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @Kheldorn.5123 said: > > @pah.4931 said: > > > @DanteZero.9736 said: > > > Seeing this chart makes me concerned for the future of ArenaNet as a company and Guild Wars 2. > > > I'm worried NCSoft might pull a City of Heroes/Villains on Anet. > > > > Which is probably why Anet did loot boxes. It makes more money. GW2 NEEDS to compete with the mobile games ROI or the plug will be pulled. If you want to keep playing GW2, you are going to have to be content with not getting the coolest stuff (if it's behind a paywall) as long as it is making more them money. > > > > It's just the reality of things. > > How is it that in years they push gemstore more and more and earn less and less? Because more and more people have more and more gold to convert to gems, so they don't spend cash to get stuff from the cash shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrubySzymek.1362 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @Vayne.8563 said: > > @Kheldorn.5123 said: > > > @pah.4931 said: > > > > @DanteZero.9736 said: > > > > Seeing this chart makes me concerned for the future of ArenaNet as a company and Guild Wars 2. > > > > I'm worried NCSoft might pull a City of Heroes/Villains on Anet. > > > > > > Which is probably why Anet did loot boxes. It makes more money. GW2 NEEDS to compete with the mobile games ROI or the plug will be pulled. If you want to keep playing GW2, you are going to have to be content with not getting the coolest stuff (if it's behind a paywall) as long as it is making more them money. > > > > > > It's just the reality of things. > > > > How is it that in years they push gemstore more and more and earn less and less? > > Because more and more people have more and more gold to convert to gems, so they don't spend cash to get stuff from the cash shop. But at the same time someone buys gems to make them into gold. If not the gold2gem ratio would be ridiculous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battledrone.8315 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > But at the same time someone buys gems to make them into gold. If not the gold2gem ratio would be ridiculous at this point. why? its pixels for pixels, and Anet controls both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zedek.8932 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 > @feroxeu.7416 said: > > @Nejul.8415 said: > > This can't be right. Gw2 is the best mmo out there. > > guild wars 2 is not the best mmo out there. Personally, I prefer 2 others over guildwars 2 atm. So you quote Feroxeu about his subjective opinion that GW2 is the best so you can talk about your subjective opinion that it's not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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