Decrease of drop chance of Black Lion Claim Ticket Scraps?

[Dawdler.8521]

> @"Ardenwolfe.8590" said:

> In the O.J. trial, Dr. Henry Lee made an observation about common sense, experience, and science. It went something like this: If you see a cockroach in a plate of spaghetti, do I need to tell you that there are 3.5 roaches in the food or do you already know something is wrong with it?

>

> The same applies with experience. We, or at least I, don't need data to tell me that after I won three items in a row what my chances are of winning said items. Hello? My chances are already 100% given that I got the items.. Does that mean someone else's chances are also 100%? Nope. It means it's a roll of the dice. And to the point? Just bought two keys. Got two armor set unlocks, gunmetal dye, Wintersday scrap (socks of all things) that sold for a few gold, and a ticket scrap.

>

> Again . . . random, but maybe that's just me.

What are you, a key salesman?

 

Opening one or two chest is random droprate, yes. Opening 500 is enough sample data for statistical comparisons. And as he said it shows noticable and considerable nerf. Thats how statistical math work. Its not magic.

 

[pah.4931]

> @"Tanner Blackfeather.6509" said:

> > @"pah.4931" said:

> > This game would be more fun if keys dropped more often. They cant be making that much money from people buying keys with real money (right? RIGHT?)...

> >

> > Instead of forcing players to do "key runs" (un-fun), just have keys drop more often and let me do something with these chests!

>

> Given the way Gold>Gems spike every time keys go on sale, there's obviously a pretty big market for keys. As I can't imagine that the ratio of Gold>Gems>Keys vs Cash>Gems>Keys is drastically different from other stuff in the gemstore, there's probably **a lot** of cash being spent on keys.

>

> I wouldn't be surprised if it's one of the biggest sellers in the gemstore.

 

Yeah. I could never imagine a world where I would buy keys, so I was just assuming everyone else in the world was exactly like me (how could I go wrong there?)... I like the idea of chests, but I don't care enough to try to farm keys (or buy them). Oh well!

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Ardenwolfe.8590" said:

> In the O.J. trial, Dr. Henry Lee made an observation about common sense, experience, and science. It went something like this: If you see a cockroach in a plate of spaghetti, do I need to tell you that there are 3.5 roaches in the food or do you already know something is wrong with it?

>

> The same applies with experience. We, or at least I, don't need data to tell me that after I won three items in a row what my chances are of winning said items. Hello? My chances are already 100% given that I got the items.. Does that mean someone else's chances are also 100%? Nope. It means it's a roll of the dice. And to the point? Just bought two keys. Got two armor set unlocks, gunmetal dye, Wintersday scrap (socks of all things) that sold for a few gold, and a ticket scrap.

>

> Again . . . random, but maybe that's just me.

 

Again, no. The cockroach example is irrelevant and misleading: a diner doesn't particularly care what the odds are when something disgusting happens; they are going to be grossed out regardless. Likewise, someone finding a precursor in this game doesn't care if the odds are 1:10 or 1:1000k; they are still going to be excited.

 

But this thread isn't a discussion of whether 3 scraps in 5 keys is possible; it's a thread about whether the true drop rate was nerfed.

 

Are you still questioning whether the drop rate changed?

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"NeroBoron.7285" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > Thus, over all, the typical player is going to unlock as many new skins (if not more) potentially worth much more. However, they won't be in the form of BL weapon skins that you can choose to sell.

> >

> > Is this good for the community? Or bad? Well, it depends on whether you value being limited to tradeable BL skins or whether you prefer getting more diverse but untradeable unlocks.

>

> Could you link the reddit discussion please?

 

I linked the thread with the summary of drop rate data. It includes some discussion of the other unlocks, but I haven't seen any specific discussion on Reddit regarding them. Just /map and /guild chat comments from people who said they preferred the increased random unlocks. Typical reasoning: "took me 25-50 keys to get a ticket before and those were worth only 30-40 gold; now, I get a couple of skin unlocks in 25-50 rolls and that's more fun for me." Mind you, there are also going to be plenty of people like @"Malediktus.9250" (and myself for that matter), who prefer getting stuff that we can monetize & then choosing what to unlock.

 

>

> Thats the point... its even more random to get what you want.. with a completed ticket you could at least choose the item you want. While it is a good think that they bring back old weapons, i dont like how they do it... they could do it by making them buyable for tickets again.

Yup. That's true for me, too.

But since e.g. a friend of mine invests their optional subscription (x gems/month) almost entirely on keys, for them it's more fun to get more unlocks.

 

> And well untradable just sucks in my opinion because it locks stuff again behind random lootboxes optained by real money/ timegated keyruns. Or behind no guaranteed drops / map completion.

Well, no, it doesn't lock stuff any worse than before. The unlocks are all things that people could get from other sources.

 

 

[moonstarmac.4603]

Actually, it is to be expected. The BLC common drops have nearly doubled, thus with a wider variety of items chances for each item to drop fluctuate. IE: If there were only 10 common items you would have a 1/10 chance. Now there are 26 items, so that chance is now 1/26. However, with Weapon Wardrobe unlocks, if you already have unlocked all non-blc weapons, it is a guarantee at a BLC weapon skin.

[NeroBoron.7285]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"NeroBoron.7285" said:

> > And well untradable just sucks in my opinion because it locks stuff again behind random lootboxes optained by real money/ timegated keyruns. Or behind no guaranteed drops / map completion.

> Well, no, it doesn't lock stuff any worse than before. The unlocks are all things that people could get from other sources.

 

Well for the unlock this is true.. but take a look at all the skins that are added only as drops from the chests. like the hydra staff or the magic glider skin. They are untradable and only drop from there. And you cant even chose if you want to get untradable item a or untradable item b.

This could all be items traded for tickets. Or if something should be more prestige then it could be traded for more tickets.

 

Anyway thanks for the link, who knows maybe something will be changed with the end of winterdays edition of the black lion chests... at least i would hope so, at least in relation to ticket scraps.. :sweat_smile:

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"NeroBoron.7285" said:

> but take a look at all the skins that are added only as drops from the chests. like the hydra staff or the magic glider skin. They are untradable and only drop from there. And you cant even chose if you want to get untradable item a or untradable item b.

Some of those items are semi-tradeable via the [black Lion Exclusives Chest](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Exclusives_Chest). That contains the BL-Chest-only unlocks from the first 5-7 months since they made that change. Specifically, you get to choose one of the following (i.e. it's not random):

`Grasping Phantom Glider, Mini Celestial Rooster, Infinirarium Glider, Candelabra Staff, Bitterfrost Vantage Point, Noran's Safe Room Pass and Key, Elemental Sword, Sworn Zaishen Helm Skin, Hounds of Balthazar Mail Carrier`

 

Over its history it has traded for 350-700 gold, most commonly about 450g. That's on par with various rare drops of coveted skins, such as the Lightward's Battlestaff.

 

Personally, I'd feel a lot better about the practice of account-bound-only unlocks in the chests if ANet keeps releasing BL Exclusive Containers to cover all such items. However, to date, they've just done the one.

 

> @"NeroBoron.7285" said:

> This could all be items traded for tickets. Or if something should be more prestige then it could be traded for more tickets.

Yeah, I would have preferred that. That gives "must have now" types a chance to get the item early and patient collectors a guaranteed opportunity later.

For example I got the hydra staff (which I didn't want) but not the elemental sword (which I did). However I was eventually able to choose the elemental sword, because I picked up the BL Exclusives chest, an opportunity that has so far eluded the Hydra Staff fans.

 

> @"NeroBoron.7285" said:

> Anyway thanks for the link,

Quite welcome :)

 

> @"NeroBoron.7285" said:

> who knows maybe something will be changed with the end of winterdays edition of the black lion chests... at least i would hope so, at least in relation to ticket scraps.. :sweat_smile:

I do like that they seem to be willing to experiment with what's being offered. I don't claim to like each iteration; I just like that they aren't sticking to a single method of release for skins.