300 Black Lion chest opening

[Lasiurus.4067]

 

- No permanent Contract

- 27 BL WEAPON

- 9 Ticket

- Around 120 Dies

- 33 Wardrobe Unlock

- 1 Advanced Cloth Rack

 

Total is around 6k Gold, Skin included.

[Orpheal.8263]

was this all farmed keys, or only bought keys, or a mixture of farming and buying keys?

 

Would you say, all this was worth it at the end now??

[Lasiurus.4067]

- 50 farmed, 250 bought with gold

- It is worth it only if you count all the skin I unlocked.

[Orpheal.8263]

So you made basically 6k gold of worth in form of skins unlocked. What did the 250 keys cost in Gold - sorry, dont now the trade taxes to calculate that now for my self ^^

10 Keys = 1000 gems or so due from that discount thing in the shop, so roughly for the example 25000 Gems that are worth exactly how much gold if you would trade that in for Gold right now???

 

Basically wanna just see, if the amount of your spent gold kind of equals with the amount of gold worth of skins you got from the chests, or if you pretty much payed with alot more gold, than you received back in worth, which could have been made a better trade, if you would have farmed for more than just only 50 keys, which in return woudl have costed you therefore alot more grind time ^^

[Conncept.7638]

300 revive orbs

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

At 2100 per 25 keys, you need over 25k gems or about 7.1k gold. The OP got better than 50%, which I consider to be excellent for lotto (the historical average value from BL chests has been around 50-60% of the cost).

****

 

> @"Orpheal.8263" said:

> Basically wanna just see, if the amount of your spent gold kind of equals with the amount of gold worth of skins you got from the chests,

 

Even if it did for the OP, you can safely assume that it will not for you. The odds are incredibly low that you'll get better than average loot and the BL chests are designed to be similar to lotto. Historically, on average, they've been worth 50% of the key value, using the more generous estimates. And that's on average, including high-value drops (which most of us will not get).

 

Some people will get lucky and those folks will post their results. It's hard to get a good idea of the true drop rates (to see the variance) with "only" 300 chests. At the bare minimum, we'd want to see data with around 25 drops from the super rare category and probably 100-150 from rare (assuming that all the weapon skins drop with equal likelihood).

 

The best way to look at the "value" of the new chests is to pick something from the statuette consolation prize list and figure out if you're willing to farm/pay to have that many statuettes (you can assume either 1 token per chest, i.e. the minimum, or 1.5/chest, which is probably close the average if you're opening 50+).

 

Take for example any of the home instance nodes: 100 statuettes. Are you willing to buy 100 keys (retail: 8400 gems, i.e. ~2400 gold) to guarantee a node, hoping that you'll only need 25 keys (retail: 2100 gems, i.e. 600 gold)? Are 25-100 chances to get some other fun stuff worth the extra expense? Or would you prefer to buy your node outright for under 400 gold in most cases?

 

****

In short, think of buying the keys solely for the entertainment value that comes just before opening, when you can imagine how great it would be if you got a lucky drop (spoiler alert: you won't, but it's fun right before pulling the level to wonder). Any actual drops are icing on the cake. And, sure, a few people will get really lucky.

[Ubi.4136]

I got a key from personal story yesterday.

yellow jackal pup (1g20s)

black lion statuette (almost worth 0g)

5 transmutation stones (0g)

commemerative coin (1g trash item)

 

assuming the key is worth 125gems, currently 35g, I got what people should expect from RNG traps...about -33g

I would rather they just make keys sellable on the TP, so I could have just made the 35g.

[Orpheal.8263]

yeah, gueass your right, but i thought so too from begin on... one would need to be insane to waste like 2400 gold just for a guaranteed permanent instance node, if you can just buy them from TP from an other player for like less then 25% of that costs, without all the hassle of opening chests and using statuettes ect.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Orpheal.8263" said:

> yeah, gueass your right, but i thought so too from begin on... one would need to be insane to waste like 2400 gold just for a guaranteed permanent instance node, if you can just buy them from TP from an other player for like less then 25% of that costs, without all the hassle of opening chests and using statuettes ect.

 

Ayup. The "value" in the keys is in the excitement (which usually ends after you finish opening them). The drops are just gravy on your chicken-fried steak (or dressing on your salad if you're vegan)

 

****

I think BL keys is one of the best way to "subscribe" to GW2. It allows you to donate a fixed amount to ANet regularly and get a bunch of skins that are nice-to-have (but you'd probably never invest time or money in otherwise) plus some "extras" that come in handy for some: boosters or revive orbs and so on. It's advantageous but not at all required for succeeding handily at the game; it's fluff for the most part, plus a bunch of junk, with a tiny chance of the awesome.

 

However, at the same time, I think they are a poor value for the cost. Which isn't surprising, since they are designed like lotto: only half the value goes into prizes (including the big ticket ones), so most people are going to see little of true value.

[Shirlias.8104]

Explain the 6k golds ( random unlock does not count because are random and not necessarily wanted ).

[Ardenwolfe.8590]

Um . . . yikes, but thank you for posting this.

[Fenom.9457]

For a common item, the drop rate of wardrobe unlocks is absolutely abysmal and pathetic. They know we want those and make them rarer. Also, why didn't you show what you got from them? A lot of people like to see that

[Ayumi Spender.1082]

I would've been mega pissed as except for those wardrobe unlocks, I would've gotten in my opinion... junk.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> I would've gotten in my opinion... junk.

 

Yes, they are designed to drop junk. They are literally bags of junk, with a tiny chance for a nice surprise and a tinier chance of something game changing. The value is not in what they drop, but in what we anticipate they might drop.

[Ayumi Spender.1082]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > I would've gotten in my opinion... junk.

>

> Yes, they are designed to drop junk. They are literally bags of junk, with a tiny chance for a nice surprise and a tinier chance of something game changing. The value is not in what they drop, but in what we anticipate they might drop.

 

Doesn't help pessimists like me with 0 anticipation and always expect the worst before the good pops up.

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

> @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > > I would've gotten in my opinion... junk.

> >

> > Yes, they are designed to drop junk. They are literally bags of junk, with a tiny chance for a nice surprise and a tinier chance of something game changing. The value is not in what they drop, but in what we anticipate they might drop.

>

> Doesn't help pessimists like me with 0 anticipation and always expect the worst before the good pops up.

 

Which lets you consider them solidly in the "Not For Me" category. One thing less to spend gems/gold on ;)

 

If there's a specific thing one wants from the chests, buying it from the TP is pretty much always the best option.

[Ayumi Spender.1082]

> @"Tanner Blackfeather.6509" said:

> > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > > > I would've gotten in my opinion... junk.

> > >

> > > Yes, they are designed to drop junk. They are literally bags of junk, with a tiny chance for a nice surprise and a tinier chance of something game changing. The value is not in what they drop, but in what we anticipate they might drop.

> >

> > Doesn't help pessimists like me with 0 anticipation and always expect the worst before the good pops up.

>

> Which lets you consider them solidly in the "Not For Me" category. One thing less to spend gems/gold on ;)

>

> If there's a specific thing one wants from the chests, buying it from the TP is pretty much always the best option.

 

Except the account bound crap if you want it.

And yeah, I've been sloooooowly (and failing) saving up to get a permanent hair contract.

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

> @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > @"Tanner Blackfeather.6509" said:

> > > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > > > @"Ayumi Spender.1082" said:

> > > > > I would've gotten in my opinion... junk.

> > > >

> > > > Yes, they are designed to drop junk. They are literally bags of junk, with a tiny chance for a nice surprise and a tinier chance of something game changing. The value is not in what they drop, but in what we anticipate they might drop.

> > >

> > > Doesn't help pessimists like me with 0 anticipation and always expect the worst before the good pops up.

> >

> > Which lets you consider them solidly in the "Not For Me" category. One thing less to spend gems/gold on ;)

> >

> > If there's a specific thing one wants from the chests, buying it from the TP is pretty much always the best option.

>

> Except the account bound crap if you want it.

> And yeah, I've been sloooooowly (and failing) saving up to get a permanent hair contract.

 

Yeah, some of those account bound items are really frustrating!

 

A good trick to avoid spending gold on other stuff while saving toward a specific goal, is to put up a buy order when you pass your regular gold amount.

 

Say you have 100g - put an order for 50. There is no way it will be filled, but it', stashed away.

When you reach 100g again, cancel the buy order (getting those 50g back) and place a new one at 100g.

 

That way, you slowly stash away money toward it while reducing the temptation to spend "just a bit" on something else. Also, should there be a sudden price drop, you might get it a good bit cheaper than expected!

[Lasiurus.4067]

In fact half of the profit come from the Wardrobe Unlock, but all the skins are not wanted... It's random.

Thats why its not worth it.

[Trise.2865]

You seem to be confused. These are the player forums. The black lion chest drop research is over on the wiki: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

[Wanze.8410]

> @"Ubi.4136" said:

> I got a key from personal story yesterday.

> yellow jackal pup (1g20s)

> black lion statuette (almost worth 0g)

> 5 transmutation stones (0g)

> commemerative coin (1g trash item)

>

> assuming the key is worth 125gems, currently 35g, I got what people should expect from RNG traps...about -33g

> I would rather they just make keys sellable on the TP, so I could have just made the 35g.

 

Since you can buy a commemorative coin with 1 statuette, I wonder why you value one at 0g and the other at 1g

[Durzlla.6295]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Orpheal.8263" said:

> > yeah, gueass your right, but i thought so too from begin on... one would need to be insane to waste like 2400 gold just for a guaranteed permanent instance node, if you can just buy them from TP from an other player for like less then 25% of that costs, without all the hassle of opening chests and using statuettes ect.

>

> Ayup. The "value" in the keys is in the excitement (which usually ends after you finish opening them). The drops are just gravy on your chicken-fried steak (or dressing on your salad if you're vegan)

>

> ****

> I think BL keys is one of the best way to "subscribe" to GW2. It allows you to donate a fixed amount to ANet regularly and get a bunch of skins that are nice-to-have (but you'd probably never invest time or money in otherwise) plus some "extras" that come in handy for some: boosters or revive orbs and so on. It's advantageous but not at all required for succeeding handily at the game; it's fluff for the most part, plus a bunch of junk, with a tiny chance of the awesome.

>

> However, at the same time, I think they are a poor value for the cost. Which isn't surprising, since they are designed like lotto: only half the value goes into prizes (including the big ticket ones), so most people are going to see little of true value.

 

This is exactly how i view it, I buy a ton of keys, more to show support for Anet than anything, me enjoying loot boxes is just a bonus.

 

But unless you’re a weirdo like me who likes all the little utility fluff items I’d hardly say they’re cost effective.

[Biff.5312]

Keys are not profitable over time. You might get lucky and get a good chest, but you should definitely NOT buy huge blocks of keys hoping that the AVERAGE output will be rewarding. Keys are a gem sink. It's for when you find yourself with only around 125 gems left, and think "Why not? I'll buy a key to use up my balance." Sometimes it'll pay off. If it doesn't, it's no great loss.

 

Think of it like lottery tickets. If you buy one number for the lottery that has a 1/10 million chance of winning, then buying 300 tickets still only gives you 300/10 million chances - you're still not going to win. You've just spent a LOT more to lose.

[Sarrs.4831]

BL keys add more account value for me as well than they cost. It is 100% in the Wardrobe Unlocks. You have to have an extensive enough library that you will very rarely get a skin worth less than 100g.

 

Personally I'm at the point where unless I get into a position where I can start raiding I'm not really stressed about any form of progression rather than raising my score on gw2e, so wardrobe unlocks for account value are pretty nice.

[Ardid.7203]

With 5 keys I got 1 permanent trader contract and 2 BL skins I will not use. So, its RNG.