Discussion on Black Lion Chests Gambling Drop Rate RNG and Transparency

[Sombra.3246]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Sombra.3246" said:

> >

> > > In fact, it's possible to measure the likelihood that something is or is not random. If you have evidence of drop manipulation, I'd love to see it. (As would ANet.)

> > >

> > How is it possible to measure the likelihood that something is or is not random without any official data from ANet or information about the algorithms that they use for the RNG?

> >

> > You cannot say conclusively it is or it isn't random or it is or it isn't manipulated because there is no transparency hence why I started this discussion.

>

> If you want to make an extraordinary claim, it's up to you to provide supporting evidence. If you have evidence of drop manipulation, please share it.

>

> In the meantime, my point is that, in general, it is possible to measure the likelihood of drops being random. The community can — and more significantly, has — done this for all the things in the game for which we can obtain decent numbers: Wintersday Gifts, Halloween Trick-or-Treat bags, Unidentified Gear, Champion Bags (of various sorts), bags produced by the 'eaters', and even (early in the game's history) drops from random mobs. The evidence we do have says that drops are random.

>

> So the claim that BL chest rates are manipulated is even more extraordinary, because it depends on ANet adding code to the game just for gem shop RNG containers. And it would also assume that ANet has managed to keep this secret from their other developers (and prevent such information from leaking out into the world, as have many, many other aspects of the game).

>

> tl;dr if you have evidence of manipulation, share it. Otherwise it sounds like sour grapes rather than a legit criticism of the game, its mechanics, or ANet itself.

>

You seem to imply in your post that I made a claim of manipulation. I made no such claim, I simply said "You cannot say conclusively it is or it isn't random or it is or it isn't manipulated because there is no transparency hence why I started this discussion."

 

I made that statement in response to your claim that: "In fact, it's possible to measure the likelihood that something is or is not random." which is an extraordinary claim, and like you said yourself, it's up to you to provide supporting evidence. Only thing you have given us so far is your opinion.

 

The main point why I started this discussion is because I wanted more transparency so that people don't have to speculate, come up with their own conclusions based on data that they gathered or make conclusions out of thin air.

 

 

[Leablo.2651]

> @"Biff.5312" said:

>

> > I'm the same way, but I acknowledge that I (and you) represent a very, very, very small minority of humans in general and MMO players in particular.

>

> I don't think this is true at all. LOTS Of players, and I suspect the majority, would prefer to buy the item they want rather than a chance at it. If everything you can get from a chest were available at a cost comparable to one key, I suspect key sales would drop to almost nil, which is why they don't do it.

 

Obviously. The items in question would never be sold so cheaply if Anet were to offer direct purchases.

[Wilk.2965]

I am one of those who think that these loot boxes foment addiction and should be restricted in games for children under 18 years of age.

 

In any case the ratios should always be public, in Spain all lotteries have their statistical ratios printed, I do not understand why videogames are "jumping" this regulation, clearly taking advantage of legal gaps.

 

I am sure that in a few years we will see it imposed by law, however companies must have initiative and move to more ethical policies.

[Neural.1824]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Sombra.3246" said:

> >

> > > In fact, it's possible to measure the likelihood that something is or is not random. If you have evidence of drop manipulation, I'd love to see it. (As would ANet.)

> > >

> > How is it possible to measure the likelihood that something is or is not random without any official data from ANet or information about the algorithms that they use for the RNG?

> >

> > You cannot say conclusively it is or it isn't random or it is or it isn't manipulated because there is no transparency hence why I started this discussion.

>

> If you want to make an extraordinary claim, it's up to you to provide supporting evidence. If you have evidence of drop manipulation, please share it.

>

> In the meantime, my point is that, in general, it is possible to measure the likelihood of drops being random. The community can — and more significantly, has — done this for all the things in the game for which we can obtain decent numbers: Wintersday Gifts, Halloween Trick-or-Treat bags, Unidentified Gear, Champion Bags (of various sorts), bags produced by the 'eaters', and even (early in the game's history) drops from random mobs. The evidence we do have says that drops are random.

>

> So the claim that BL chest rates are manipulated is even more extraordinary, because it depends on ANet adding code to the game just for gem shop RNG containers. And it would also assume that ANet has managed to keep this secret from their other developers (and prevent such information from leaking out into the world, as have many, many other aspects of the game).

>

> tl;dr if you have evidence of manipulation, share it. Otherwise it sounds like sour grapes rather than a legit criticism of the game, its mechanics, or ANet itself.

>

 

1. There is no law against a company like Anet manipulating drop rates. Period. Phrases like "has a chance" do not define anything at all about what method is used for picking what type of item is looted.

2. The RNG cruisaiders are obsessed with the idea that just because something is *supposedly* "RNG" that there are automatically laws or guidelines in place that state unequivocally that a game company will never ever ever make changes to the system without telling people. News flash: There is no law against a game company such as Arenanet changing drop rates on the fly depending on whether or not they want to make adjustments to certain markets in the economy.

3. The gem store, and cash purchases that are converted to gold through gems, are the primary income model for Arenanet. It is in their best interest as a business to tweak the numbers weekly or even daily to maintain the appearance that the drop rates are higher than they actually are.

4. The incredible thing is that they have you and a dozen others working for them daily for zero paychecks (that we know of) to defend them against accusations that they might be doing something that is not only completely legal, but a logical business practice when the legality is taken into consideration.

[usnedward.9023]

> @"Blude.6812" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"Blude.6812" said:

> > > Too bad I can't buy what I really want to

> > Most of the items that used to be gated by RNG are available via the BL Exclusives Chest or via Statuettes. What did you want to buy that isn't available that way?

> >

>

> I should have explained myself better. I would like to buy things directly from gem store/tp/NPCs . I don't want to buy keys to collect statuettes or chests and a chance at a couple of other things that may be good but generally drop what I don't need or want.

>

If that is the case then every item you would buy would be account bound and not sell-able? Obviously you want it and that would be the case anyway but some might see it as a gold marketing opportunity for unbound items.

 

Let's say they offered up the Contracts from BL Chests to buy with gems. How much is too little or too much for your wallet? Should items like this be excluded? If everyone could outright buy the contract for cash (they can now if they want to convert cash to gems to gold) would ANETs market strategy suffer? Would certain items still be restricted to the BL chest like the contracts and maybe other items?

 

I do agree I would pay for some things that are restricted to BL chest and many things that are you can buy.

[LightofConduct.1693]

Anet has to be more transparent with data in general. The information about drop rates and rng in general would be really useful for players to take into account before taking a risk. An honest company was at least let them know if they have any chance at all or if they are just throwing their cash away on a pipe dream.

[moonstarmac.4603]

Overall the new statuette currency and the wardrobe unlocks are the top winners. However, the Wardrobe unlocks, Armory Unlocks, and Weapon Unlocks ONLY pay off if you have the boring stuff unlocked already. IE: Open a Weapon Unlock, get a Bronze Sword or something else completely useless. But at the same time, when you open it and get say a Fused Axe skin...well, it just unlocked a rare skin worth hundreds of gold or 7 tickets when it is available.

 

The statuettes are there to tease you into buying more. 100 statuettes can get you a rare node for your home, you can also buy Gem Store outfits and armor (rotating inventory of course), Gold Keys to get that guaranteed 5th uncommon or better drop, Perma Finishers, etc. This means you can actually get something worth real money or a lot of gold in the long run.

 

As for the illusion of winning...it could be worse. STO had it for a while where the lockboxes could drop 2 crystals (similar currency setting as the statuettes) and that would be it. The only thing STO did really well, is you could sell keys on the exchange.

[LightofConduct.1693]

> @"moonstarmac.4603" said:

> Overall the new statuette currency and the wardrobe unlocks are the top winners. However, the Wardrobe unlocks, Armory Unlocks, and Weapon Unlocks ONLY pay off if you have the boring stuff unlocked already. IE: Open a Weapon Unlock, get a Bronze Sword or something else completely useless. But at the same time, when you open it and get say a Fused Axe skin...well, it just unlocked a rare skin worth hundreds of gold or 7 tickets when it is available.

>

> The statuettes are there to tease you into buying more. 100 statuettes can get you a rare node for your home, you can also buy Gem Store outfits and armor (rotating inventory of course), Gold Keys to get that guaranteed 5th uncommon or better drop, Perma Finishers, etc. This means you can actually get something worth real money or a lot of gold in the long run.

 

True I also agree that the wardrobe unlocks and the statuettes were the best additions to the black lion chest. Hopefully they will give us the stats on the rng soon and be more transparent with the drop rates.

[MarkBecks.6453]

So 50 Statuettes accumulated, which I swapped for a Golden Black Lion Chest Key giving me a guaranteed uncommon or better item. (something reasonable I thought) I got a skin that sells for 16 gold, I rest my case.....

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"MarkBecks.6453" said:

> So 50 Statuettes accumulated, which I swapped for a Golden Black Lion Chest Key giving me a guaranteed uncommon or better item. (something reasonable I thought) I got a skin that sells for 16 gold, I rest my case.....

 

What is your case that you rest? "Uncommon" includes 20 items, most of which are worth under 20 gold. "Uncommon" is far more likely to drop than the other (rarer) categories. So why did you expect that a Golden BL Chest Key would be worth more?

[Ahnog.8795]

speaking of drop rates, I saw the fire breathing longbow on the loot table and wanted it. I only had 21 BLC so I bought keys and opened them. It didn't drop. A couple of days later I was doing story on an alt and the story loot dropped a key. I opened the chest and there was the bow. Feeling lucky, or blessed.

 

[MarkBecks.6453]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"MarkBecks.6453" said:

> > So 50 Statuettes accumulated, which I swapped for a Golden Black Lion Chest Key giving me a guaranteed uncommon or better item. (something reasonable I thought) I got a skin that sells for 16 gold, I rest my case.....

>

> What is your case that you rest? "Uncommon" includes 20 items, most of which are worth under 20 gold. "Uncommon" is far more likely to drop than the other (rarer) categories. So why did you expect that a Golden BL Chest Key would be worth more?

 

I have gone over this post a few times, and I cannot break it down more clearer or simpler. I am sorry if their may be a language barrier or if you not sure what I meant, but I suggest you read all the comments from the top to get the thread details

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"MarkBecks.6453" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"MarkBecks.6453" said:

> > > So 50 Statuettes accumulated, which I swapped for a Golden Black Lion Chest Key giving me a guaranteed uncommon or better item. (something reasonable I thought) I got a skin that sells for 16 gold, I rest my case.....

> >

> > What is your case that you rest? "Uncommon" includes 20 items, most of which are worth under 20 gold. "Uncommon" is far more likely to drop than the other (rarer) categories. So why did you expect that a Golden BL Chest Key would be worth more?

>

> I have gone over this post a few times, and I cannot break it down more clearer or simpler. I am sorry if their may be a language barrier or if you not sure what I meant, but I suggest you read all the comments from the top to get the thread details

 

Let me rephrase then: why did you expect that a Golden Black Lion Key used in late February 2018 would be worth more than 20g?

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

I would suggest previewing the contents of the BL Chest, assessing the value of the offerings (Uncommon or better) for the least valuable, expecting the receive the lowest value item, and then considering whether the 50 Statuettes for a Golden Key are worth it, in the future.

 

Good luck.

[Matick.4132]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> I have yet to see any MMO every publish drop rates, especially when linked to revenues.

 

I guess it was Japan (correct me if I'm wrong), that has laws in place so they need to publish the odds.

But this counts for Japanese games and I guess only IN Japan. But it's a start though.

 

There's a lot going on right now, in many places. Look what's happened to EA! ;)

More and more people think it should be labelled as gambling (with according restrictions etc.), I agree.

And this example alone had such a huge backslash, that the waves were felt al over the industry.

 

IMHO? It can only be good for the players. Shamefully it needs the law to settle this, warm fuzzy words won't make it.

[ReaverKane.7598]

> @"Sombra.3246" said:

> There has been a lot of discussions on the internet about in game loot boxes in general and gambling.

>

> I myself am a fan of the Black Lion Chests, and I regularly buy keys to open chests. I sometimes get motivated to test out my luck by seeing all those youtubers getting lucky with the opening of their Black Lion Chests. But my luck has been consistently bad. I wanted to do some research on the subject and see if there is any information about the actual chance you have of receiving each type of drop.

>

> The Official Wikipedia page on Black Lion Chest/Drop rate on the official has this disclaimer:

> “DISCLAIMER: The information in this article is based on experimental research conducted by the community, and may contain inaccuracies and speculation. This is not considered an official source of information from ArenaNet”

>

> There is a lot of research being done by players themselves but no real information from ArenaNet. My goal of having this discussion is to get ArenaNet to be more transparent and disclose the official drop rates for categories like common, uncommon, rare and super rare drops and for the individual items themselves.

>

> Anyone can calculate the win rate for any type lottery which allows people to try their luck gambling. They can calculate the real drop/win rate so that they do not have any illusions about the chance they have for getting the item/money they want.

>

> In any case please let me know your thoughts about this topic and hopefully ArenaNet will take notice and make the numbers available for the community to make their informed decisions when buying Black Lion Chests instead of praying to the RNG gods.

>

 

Well, in China, afaik, games are mandated by law to disclose the drop chance and content of stuff like the BLC. Which, i'm guessing is the reason Arena Net added the preview function.

If that was enough to appease chinese laws, i doubt we'll ever seen anything more transparent than what we have.

(Also remember some things are rarer than others, and i've had a few rare drops more often than some uncommon ones i'd want to have).