GrubySzymek.1362 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarcShriek.5829 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. Except the company can't explain the system. Unfortunately people don't understand math. You can explain all day and most people just can't get it. There is no evidence to support the position that publishing the information drives down sales. Too many games are too easy to understand how bad certain bets are, yet people keep making fire bets while playing craps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrubySzymek.1362 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"DarcShriek.5829" said: > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. > > Except the company can't explain the system. Unfortunately people don't understand math. You can explain all day and most people just can't get it. > There is no evidence to support the position that publishing the information drives down sales. Too many games are too easy to understand how bad certain bets are, yet people keep making fire bets while playing craps. So if it does no harm to them, why not showing the odds? Cause you know, casinos don't show odds either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said: > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > > > > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. > > > > Except the company can't explain the system. Unfortunately people don't understand math. You can explain all day and most people just can't get it. > > There is no evidence to support the position that publishing the information drives down sales. Too many games are too easy to understand how bad certain bets are, yet people keep making fire bets while playing craps. > > So if it does no harm to them, why not showing the odds? Cause you know, casinos don't show odds either. One possibility is that it will create issues with those that are terrible at probabilities who will then complain that something isn’t dropping at a stated percentage when it actually is. We see this every now and again with the salvage rates for ectos and forging mystic clovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrubySzymek.1362 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said: > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > > > > > > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. > > > > > > Except the company can't explain the system. Unfortunately people don't understand math. You can explain all day and most people just can't get it. > > > There is no evidence to support the position that publishing the information drives down sales. Too many games are too easy to understand how bad certain bets are, yet people keep making fire bets while playing craps. > > > > So if it does no harm to them, why not showing the odds? Cause you know, casinos don't show odds either. > > One possibility is that it will create issues with those that are terrible at probabilities who will then complain that something isn’t dropping at a stated percentage when it actually is. > > We see this every now and again with the salvage rates for ectos and forging mystic clovers. In these cases you can put blame on the customer because of lack of knowledge or understanding. With no clear information about drop chances in BLCs the blame is put on the company because clearly they are afraid of showing these values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said: > > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > > > > > > > > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. > > > > > > > > Except the company can't explain the system. Unfortunately people don't understand math. You can explain all day and most people just can't get it. > > > > There is no evidence to support the position that publishing the information drives down sales. Too many games are too easy to understand how bad certain bets are, yet people keep making fire bets while playing craps. > > > > > > So if it does no harm to them, why not showing the odds? Cause you know, casinos don't show odds either. > > > > One possibility is that it will create issues with those that are terrible at probabilities who will then complain that something isn’t dropping at a stated percentage when it actually is. > > > > We see this every now and again with the salvage rates for ectos and forging mystic clovers. > > In these cases you can put blame on the customer because of lack of knowledge or understanding. With no clear information about drop chances in BLCs the blame is put on the company because clearly they are afraid of showing these values. Or there are other reasons that have nothing to do in regards to fear of showing the values which we can only speculate on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrubySzymek.1362 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said: > > > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > > > > > > > > > > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. > > > > > > > > > > Except the company can't explain the system. Unfortunately people don't understand math. You can explain all day and most people just can't get it. > > > > > There is no evidence to support the position that publishing the information drives down sales. Too many games are too easy to understand how bad certain bets are, yet people keep making fire bets while playing craps. > > > > > > > > So if it does no harm to them, why not showing the odds? Cause you know, casinos don't show odds either. > > > > > > One possibility is that it will create issues with those that are terrible at probabilities who will then complain that something isn’t dropping at a stated percentage when it actually is. > > > > > > We see this every now and again with the salvage rates for ectos and forging mystic clovers. > > > > In these cases you can put blame on the customer because of lack of knowledge or understanding. With no clear information about drop chances in BLCs the blame is put on the company because clearly they are afraid of showing these values. > > Or there are other reasons that have nothing to do in regards to fear of showing the values which we can only speculate on. I am opened to get to know these reasons :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGrimm.5624 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > I am not debating about the companies publishing the odds or not, but for me, for super rare items I plan on .0001% drop rates so telling me its that or twice as bad wouldn't impact playing the odds since it is playing the odds that are fun as well. Not apposed to asking ANet for them, but what's in the chest is what would be the deciding factor to gamble or not. Look at how many people play these multi-state lotteries and how low hitting it is, but people still play weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlippyCheeze.5483 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. From experience over in Path of Exile, I can confirm what @"Ayrilana.1396" said, and add this: I don't believe it is possible for the company, or the community, to explain this in a way that will actually teach people how probability works ... if that even matters, because they will flat out lie their teeth out to try and get what they want. (PoE publishes the exact probability of each tier of loot in the random box, and that they have a flat probability for every item within a tier, so you know exactly what the odds of any single drop are.) Someone posted that they got 12 pair of boots (2 drops) from 35 boxes, and they demanded something be done to replace the duplicates (which, unlike GW2, you get to keep both copies) because of it. The odds of this are approximately one in "we are gonna need a few more universes before even one person ever experiences this"; IIRC it was zero point 1... Cue days of back and forth where people argued that the math couldn't possibly be right, they got similar things, blah blah, until eventually the developers posted that the user opened 30, not 35, boxes, and got exactly *two* pair of boots in total from them. So... (a) publishing the exact chances has not harmed "free to play, funded by cosmetic only gemstore purchases" PoE, and (b) publishing them has not resolved any of the issues around people understanding what probability means, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > What makes you think that ANet is "afraid" to publish? They have stated other reasons why they choose not to. (They have a long, long history of refusing to publish such numbers for things that aren't sold for cash or gems, too, including the mini polar bear from GW1.) Again, I prefer ANet to publish the numbers. But it's not going to have a meaningful impact on the players that a paternalistic approach would try to protect. If so (and I think it is), then it makes little sense for ANet to publish: it comes at a cost & it undermines the mystery, without accomplishing much. It's lose-lose. I get that some people are very much against any form of perceived gambling, but that by itself isn't enough of a reason. tl;dr it's still lose-lose for them to worry about publishing exact numbers, even if many of us would prefer that they do, for a huge variety of reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knighthonor.4061 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"cesmode.4257" said: > https://www.mmorpg.com/guild-wars-2/columns/is-it-time-to-say-goodbye-to-black-lion-chests-lootboxes-1000012793 > > Fairly decent read. And this is nothing new to anyone. > > If they cut out the rare materials (you can get them just from playing the game, very easily), the revive orbs, repairs, teleports, etc...cut out all the useless stuff that takes up so much bank space, and give us skins, mount skins, etc...yah maybe Id buy some keys. Until then, I think its a colossal waste of time and money and only adds to the inventory and item management problem GW2 has. Also, consider all of the legal hoopla surrounding RNG, lootboxes, and gambling in video games these days. Might be a good idea to revisit these chests. > > With all of this said, maybe Arenanet has made some changes in recent years to the chests because they seem more meaningful now than when the game launched. But we still have a ways to go before I spend gems on keys. > > What are your thoughts? Lets discuss this Inventor issue. I mentioned this back before HoT, but was dismissed. I think more attention need to be given to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarcShriek.5829 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said: > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > @"Kheldorn.5123" said: > > > > > > @"TheGrimm.5624" said: > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tl;dr it's a red herring to worry that ANet doesn't publish drop rates (even if many or most of us wish they would). It won't affect most people's purchasing habits, but it will diminish what little "magic" there is in the process, i.e. lose-lose rather than win-win. > > > > > > > > > > > > Agree, publishing the odds wouldn't impact the decision on to gamble or not. > > > > > > > > > > If that was true, companies wouldn't be afraid to publish this information. > > > > > > > > > > > > > One problem is that the playerbase is tweet I le at understanding odds/probabilities. They’ll open a few chests, not get what they feel should have been the probability percentage, and then proceed to complain to Anet that the chests are broken. > > > > > > That's on the company to explain the system then. What you said only enforces what I said. Company hides chance values because they know they will lose sales when players see how low are chances of getting desired item. If they are afraid of customers knowing this, they're malicious. > > > > Except the company can't explain the system. Unfortunately people don't understand math. You can explain all day and most people just can't get it. > > There is no evidence to support the position that publishing the information drives down sales. Too many games are too easy to understand how bad certain bets are, yet people keep making fire bets while playing craps. > > So if it does no harm to them, why not showing the odds? Cause you know, casinos don't show odds either. Actually, casinos do show the odd on their most popular games. In fact, many even give lessons on how to play them. I've seen many casinos give out cards on how to play blackjack, roulette, baccarat and craps. These cards often give the pay out and odds of each possible bet. In British Columbia the law states that slot machines have to give the pay out rate on the help screens. In addition, IGT has cooperated with Bob Dancer to produce training software to learn to player their video poker machines. IGT has even distributed this game for free trials at G2E. I really don't know what you mean by "casinos don't show odds either" The only reason the internal math of slot machines are kept secret is due to competition. No one wants their competitors to steal their math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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