Gnashblade zephyrite supply box, isn't using magic find like it states

[Egorum.9506]

Has anyone gotten anything but commons from the GZSB? I opened 50 with 750% MF, guildy opened 50 at 800% MF, two people on reddit opened 50 ea with 500/850% MF respectively and all of us only got common drops.

 

This leads me to believe that though the box states it is affected by magic find it really isnt. One of us should've gotten something other than common loot

[Ayrilana.1396]

Sample sizes are too small.

[Egorum.9506]

200 boxes affected by magic find should've yielded at least uncommon drops

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Egorum.9506" said:

> 200 boxes affected by magic find should've yielded at least uncommon drops

 

The uncommon drops include small fangs (and other low-tier 'fine mats'), as well as and ancient wood logs (and other common mats). Are you saying that none of these 200 samples yielded any of that? Rare drops include ancient bones (and other T6 'fine mats'). Are you saying that nothing like that dropped?

 

Besides that, 200 drops isn't enough to establish any sort of statistical pattern. Generally speaking, you want to have at least 20 and preferably 50 units drop into each "bin". Even if we were to make the simplifying (and likely incorrect) assumption that T1 claws|blood|venom|etc has the same rate, that all T6 mats drop at the same rate, we won't get the minimum we need. (For the high-frequency drops, 50 would be better; 20 would be okay for the skins; and we'll just have to live without much data on the super rare infusions and others.)

 

On that basis, 50000 trials is barely enough data. So far, I think I've seen about 1000 units of BLCs posted on Reddt plus forums and I haven't yet collated because the posters haven't summarized their results, which makes it tedious to track. And obviously, they won't have used the same amount of magic find.

 

tl;dr no, we have no idea if 200 boxes affected by 600%+ MF is _likely_ to yield something besides materials.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

A couple of examples for why we need more data before we can say what "should" happen...

 

From the regular zephyr supply boxes, we know that "common" drops don't drop at the same rate. From [u/sutgon's 50k data](https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/49496/estimated-values-of-the-zephyrite-supply-boxes), we can see for example:

* Copper Ore (2.1k) dropped about twice as often as Platinum (1.1k) and over four times as often as gold (472 units).

* Mithril (210), in the common category, dropped as often as Zhaitaffy (209), in the uncommon category.

* 102 Zephyrite Runes dropped (rare category), more than double the 42 Small Fangs (uncommon)

 

Now, of course, this thread is about the Gnashblade-brand versions of the boxes and won't necessarily have the same drop rates (although it would be reasonable to guess that they might). The point is that it illustrates how little information we have from knowing what drops are in which categories.

[Egorum.9506]

Good call, didn't realize that t5 mats were included in uncommon. Didn't get any t6 mats though, I'd have been excited to even see that much

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

I can see why you'd want to "even see that much," but unfortunately it's still not all that likely. The drop rates are just super, super low.

That's not unexpected given how things have worked in this game in the past, even though, like everyone else, I always have my fingers crossed that this time, it will be different.

****

I'm really sorry you didn't get anything special.

 

PS you might want to check the value of junk items from your 50 with MF to those who opened without. My guess is that the difference will be notable (although not enough to take away the sting of "not even an Armored Scale."

 

 

****

Except for the excitement right before opening, these things are a good way for most people to lose 75% of the value of their materials. A tiny fraction of lucky players will lose only 55-60%. And it's just a handful who are going to see some of those sweet, sweet infusions that will change them from top X% to top 0.1%.

 

Adding magic find is going to change things from depressing to ... depressing, with a twist.

 

****

For what it's worth, the regular box (per u/sutgon's 50k data) divvied up its offering as follows

* Common: ~83% of drop totals _excluding_ tokens & quartz (98% including)

* Uncommon: 15% excluding (2% including)

* Rare: 1.53% excluding (0.2% including)

* Super Rare: 0.01% excluding (0% including)

 

The reason to "ignore" tokens in quartz is that they drop in bulk and the data reporting we have only looks at results, not _how_ things dropped. So if you're comparing to your drops, you also have to ignore tokens & quartz.

 

In 200 boxes, it's therefore reasonable to _see_ 15% uncommon, but it's not reasonable to _expect_ that, because it only takes a few lucky streaks to get more, a few bad streaks to end up with less, even a lot less. Even so, 60 uncommon items (15%) exactly evenly distributed (which never happens in RNG) would mean there are fourteen items in uncommon that you'd never see. Add to that the fact that the items don't drop evenly, e.g. Ori Ore drops with triple the frequency as the mini.

 

The rare category, again completely ignoring tokens, amounts to 3 drops. You can see that a minor bad streak could easily lead to zero rare drops.

 

And for the Super Rare... 50k results is too few to get more than a flavor of how few of these drops. Out of 200, we can expect... not a single one. Out of 50,000, u/sutgon only got 4.

 

 

[Egorum.9506]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> I can see why you'd want to "even see that much," but unfortunately it's still not all that likely. The drop rates are just super, super low.

> That's not unexpected given how things have worked in this game in the past, even though, like everyone else, I always have my fingers crossed that this time, it will be different.

> ****

> I'm really sorry you didn't get anything special.

>

> PS you might want to check the value of junk items from your 50 with MF to those who opened without. My guess is that the difference will be notable (although not enough to take away the sting of "not even an Armored Scale."

>

>

> ****

> Except for the excitement right before opening, these things are a good way for most people to lose 75% of the value of their materials. A tiny fraction of lucky players will lose only 55-60%. And it's just a handful who are going to see some of those sweet, sweet infusions that will change them from top X% to top 0.1%.

>

> Adding magic find is going to change things from depressing to ... depressing, with a twist.

>

> ****

> For what it's worth, the regular box (per u/sutgon's 50k data) divvied up its offering as follows

> * Common: ~83% of drop totals _excluding_ tokens & quartz (98% including)

> * Uncommon: 15% excluding (2% including)

> * Rare: 1.53% excluding (0.2% including)

> * Super Rare: 0.01% excluding (0% including)

>

> The reason to "ignore" tokens in quartz is that they drop in bulk and the data reporting we have only looks at results, not _how_ things dropped. So if you're comparing to your drops, you also have to ignore tokens & quartz.

>

> In 200 boxes, it's therefore reasonable to _see_ 15% uncommon, but it's not reasonable to _expect_ that, because it only takes a few lucky streaks to get more, a few bad streaks to end up with less, even a lot less. Even so, 60 uncommon items (15%) exactly evenly distributed (which never happens in RNG) would mean there are fourteen items in uncommon that you'd never see. Add to that the fact that the items don't drop evenly, e.g. Ori Ore drops with triple the frequency as the mini.

>

> The rare category, again completely ignoring tokens, amounts to 3 drops. You can see that a minor bad streak could easily lead to zero rare drops.

>

> And for the Super Rare... 50k results is too few to get more than a flavor of how few of these drops. Out of 200, we can expect... not a single one. Out of 50,000, u/sutgon only got 4.

>

>

 

I tried my hand at 5k of the regular boxes, but it looks like the drop rate is the same between them and the blc. Excellent breakdown though man. Thank you