[Updated] ANET, Living World Season 4, The Economy and YOU!

[Arlette.9684]

**Updated the Original post to refrain from extremes and lay out some questions for the community. Added a work in progress Spreadsheet**

 

Hey there fellow traders,

Since the original post got removed over a technicality, but got a lot of traction with the community, I felt obligated to reopen it and hopefully if we generate enough traction again (and keep it civil) we can give the Devs some ideas on addressing the issue, if you think there's an issue.

 

It feels to me and I'm sure I'm not the only one, that since LWS 4 there's been a noticeable shift in prices on the TP. A lot of the old staples have plummeted to previously unseen lows, while other less used or newly introduced goods have skyrocketed to previously unseen heights. *Do you see such wild market shifts as good or bad for the economy?*

It also seems that some older goods have been thrown into the pool of uselessness, to make way for new and updated replacements (this is best illustrated by looking at a lot of the core and HoT cooking materials). *Should we be focusing on trying to make those materials useful again or should we just scrap them and maybe eventually just remove them completely as outdated and unneeded?*

 

Finally, the prices of Ascended Materials has been in a state of steady decline over the lifespan of the game. To me this is indicative of lower influx of new players, trying to craft Ascended armor/weapons. *Are you happy with the alternative options added for obtaining Ascended Armor? What can they do to improve it while still preserving the importance of the original materials and prevent the prices of Ascended materials, from dropping further?*

 

**I have attached a spreadsheet with a few items that have seen steady decline between PoF introduction and now. I also included their introductory trading value. One thing the spreadsheet doesn't show at this time is the volume available in the different periods and I'm going to try and include that in there over the course of the next few days. The spreadsheet is currently a work-in-progress and currently only contains goods that have declined in trading value over the time period but as my work schedule permits I will be adding some big offenders for the opposite. I came across an item that had reached a 900% inflation since PoF release.**

 

Please keep it civil and discuss at your leisure. If you have any suggestions or have a valid point you'd like to illustrate, I'll do my best to include it into the original post.

 

[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L37BqSMekth0BCg-BfdBsp5bDcBQA0EQ7o6uSYmJFww/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L37BqSMekth0BCg-BfdBsp5bDcBQA0EQ7o6uSYmJFww/edit?usp=sharing "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L37BqSMekth0BCg-BfdBsp5bDcBQA0EQ7o6uSYmJFww/edit?usp=sharing")

 

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

You haven't actually established any issue:

* What is your definition of economic crisis?

* Falling prices ~~isn't~~ are merely a sign of cheap markets, not a sign of a problem.

* Low prices are very good for new players, good for people wanting to make certain shinies or gear up alt characters; ambivalent for farmers (earn less, but increased purchasing power might even that out); is likely bad for speculators/hoarders; can be bad for some veterans who aren't interested in shinies or alts. In other words, lower prices isn't automatically bad for a game; it can be great.

* Populations of every game decline after an expansion; that's not new.

* Flipping is inevitable any time there's disruption to the markets: it takes the masses time to catch up to the changes, while market-savvy players figure it out right away.

* The TP is incredibly stable.

* None of the above is meaningfully different compared to what happened during John Smith's tenure; there's no evidence that his departure has changed much.

 

There are definitely issues, but (as before), it's awkward to start a discussion about the economy with unsupported conclusions based on misunderstanding of the little data we have.

[Arlette.9684]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> You haven't actually established any issue:

> * What is your definition of economic crisis?

> * Falling prices isn't a sign of cheap markets, not a sign of a problem.

> * Low prices are very good for new players, good for people wanting to make certain shinies or gear up alt characters; ambivalent for farmers (earn less, but increased purchasing power might even that out); is likely bad for speculators/hoarders; can be bad for some veterans who aren't interested in shinies or alts. In other words, lower prices isn't automatically bad for a game; it can be great.

> * Populations of every game decline after an expansion; that's not new.

> * Flipping is inevitable any time there's disruption to the markets: it takes the masses time to catch up to the changes, while market-savvy players figure it out right away.

> * The TP is incredibly stable.

> * None of the above is meaningfully different compared to what happened during John Smith's tenure; there's no evidence that his departure has changed much.

>

> There are definitely issues, but (as before), it's awkward to start a discussion about the economy with unsupported conclusions based on misunderstanding of the little data we have.

 

Valid suggestions, I’ll update the post to be more cohesive and focused when I get back from work. I didn’t want to write a wall of text, as short messages tend to be better received and leave more room for interpretstion.

[GDchiaScrub.3241]

**By default, most MMOs print money.** Of course there are going to be issues, but I also recognize the topic doesn't start with any examples/definitions just "It feels like...GW2 is experiencing an economic crisis." Okay, but _by design_ printing money is going to cause issues, so can you delve deeper than that?

 

 

Also don't expect the devs to chime in. Maybe have a topic where players can participate in as well.

[IndigoSundown.5419]

> @"Arlette.9684" said:

> It feels like ever since the **departure** of John Smith, GW2 is experiencing an economic crisis. Prices of well known staples have dropped to unseen before values, due to over-saturation of the market (and likely population decline due to PoF being rather dated, already) with the release of new maps. Fast flips have become a staple, offering some mindblowing volatility around content releases.

 

I am making as much/more selling on the TP as/than I did during Mr. Smith's tenure. I'm an equal opportunity seller, and sell most everything I "earn," harvest or salvage. This suggests to me that if there is an economic issue, it is with certain materials, and/or certain economic practices only, not with the overall health of the market.

 

The issue of increased supply is always going to be there. ANet selected a reward model in which many (if not most) rewards must be crafted or forged. This means the value of in-game rewards is in what the salvage can be sold for, or used for, rather than any value intrinsic to the vast majority of reward items. One common player response to this model is to complain that the game feels unrewarding. To address this perception, ANet provides more of the same. The alternative would be a complete restructure of the game's reward systems, and that's about as likely as mankind deciding to do away with the seven deadly sins.

 

Sure, ANet could (and likely will) introduce more material sinks. However, these must necessarily be accompanied by in-game assets (skins, etc. and the content they are rewards for). Those assets are produced on a macro time scale, so using material sinks to make micro adjustments to single items or even groups of items on the TP is not going to happen.

 

So, ANet is unlikely to either manipulate supply or increase demand in a more stable (i.e., slower) fashion than introducing sinks with content releases. Given that (likely) reality, my suggestion is for individual traders (whether flippers, crafters or what-not) to adapt to changing market conditions rather than petition ANet to be the one to adapt so players can stay within a self-imposed comfort zone.

[Boysenberry.1869]

Is there a reason to worry about fictional economies? As someone that logs on to have fun, does some kind of market armageddon harm me in any way? Does it prevent me from doing dailies, chatting with friends, enjoying festivals, mapping the world, completing achievements, running dungeons or killing world bosses? I recently made a legendary and the resources it make it were dirt cheap. I was very pleased. Not once since launch have I ever logged in and stressed over the game's economy.

[Obtena.7952]

The only reason to really worry is when the situation results in the inability to craft gear.

[Astralporing.1957]

I don't see how things have become any worse since departure of the dev named in OPs post. If anything, i feel some things were worse then (but that is my completely subjective opinion, one that need not be necessarily shared by others).

 

Also

> Prices of well known staples have dropped to unseen before values

At the same time however prices of some other staples increased to levels at least some players are uncomfortable with.

Notice, that both trends started well before said dev left Anet.

 

In short:

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> There are definitely issues, but (as before), it's awkward to start a discussion about the economy with unsupported conclusions based on misunderstanding of the little data we have.

Was going to say exactly this, but no reason to duplicate your post. I must agree fully.

 

There are definitely issues, but these are all _individual_ issues, not a sign of some general economic problems.

 

 

[Arlette.9684]

Updated the original post based on some of the suggestions, keep up the good work.