Strider Pj.2193 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 > @"Kunzaito.8169" said: > > @"LetoII.3782" said: > > You're counting guilds, the following pug population is much larger. Only 200 people transferring per matchup.. really? Across NA, EU and CN? I think you're off by orders of magnitude. > > Every gem traded for gold was purchased with real money. Last time I transferred I bought $35 in gems. 1200 me's pays a Dev salary for the year. Yeah, that's a big deal. > > > > I said only 200 people paying cash money to transfer. And that was just a guess given my knowledge of guild transfers (guilds I've been a part of that transferred, and server conversation for many years of guilds coming and going). I've never seen any guild leader ask members to pay, nor heard anybody say they paid to transfer. I HAVE heard guilds talk about gathering or soliciting the gold they need to give to members to transfer, or offering to assist with gold for members' transfers. My feeling is that few people are willing to bankroll out of their own pockets in real money for their guild to move, so that's why I guessed a low number. > > I really don't have the feeling that there are a large number of pugs that transfer to chase winning servers. In my view that is entirely a guild thing. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong with some data or anecdotes to the contrary, but it doesn't make sense to me as a player anyway to transfer unless it's with a group I want to play with. > > I know nothing about the CN WvW scene or if it even has one. I had only been talking EU, so if you double my number it still doesn't change the argument. What would a number high enough to make ANet take notice be in your estimation? > > Look at it another way. **Devs have already said that for alliances they are targeting worlds to be roughly 500-1000 players total**. Assuming that is roughly the size of an active server population now, it gives you some idea of just how small the wvw pop is. Given that the movement primarily takes place to, again, one or two servers each reset, and all servers have permanent pop that won't move, I can't see how you can arrive at "orders of magnitude" more people transferring. Fight/wvw guilds tend to be relatively small, and not everyone will move even when their leadership does. The math just isnt there for me. Please feel free to suggest where I'm mistaken though. > Each World will have a population of between 2000-2500 if you check their math. An Alliance is a subset of a world and would only be about 1/5 of the Worlds population. 2 or more alliances on each world, with the remainder made up of unaffiliated guilds and solos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kunzaito.8169 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 > @"Strider Pj.2193" said: > Each World will have a population of between 2000-2500 if you check their math. An Alliance is a subset of a world and would only be about 1/5 of the Worlds population. 2 or more alliances on each world, with the remainder made up of unaffiliated guilds and solos. > Ah yeah, thanks for that correction. I was mistaken about that. It makes more sense then, since if they're linking 2 or more servers they're probably targeting a population cap in that range which would more accurately correspond to the future system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rysdude.3824 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 > @"LetoII.3782" said: > > @"Kunzaito.8169" said: > > > @"rektu.8209" said: > > > Why would anet do that? They are getting money every relink.. They are just gonna milk it out till alliances come, and even after alliances, they will milk it out even more till gw3 comes out. > > > > People always say this, but are we *sure* this is actually a significant revenue stream, especially one for which they would compromise design decisions? Face it, the organized wvw pop is NOT that big. And I'm under the impression that the guilds that move don't pay real money for it anyway, they solicit/farm gold to convert to gems. I guess ultimately that drives the price of gems higher which is a small enticement for some other players to buy gems, but that's stretching the cause/effect motivator way past its limit, IMO. > > > > Let's say 1000 players move each relink. Since usually just one or two servers get stacked up, that seems ballpark reasonable to me. Now let's say 80% of those costs are covered by guilds that are already gold-rich or by farming, the other 20% are whales paying money or assorted guild members willing to pony up. That's 200 people paying $10 every two months to stack up wvw. ANet is not breaking the game for an extra $2000 every other month. If someone wants to propose different numbers I'm all ears, but I can't see it being wildly more than this. > > > > You're counting guilds, the following pug population is much larger. Only 200 people transferring per matchup.. really? Across NA, EU and CN? I think you're off by orders of magnitude. > Every gem traded for gold was purchased with real money. Last time I transferred I bought $35 in gems. 1200 me's pays a Dev salary for the year. Yeah, that's a big deal. > Is that really how much a dev makes? I always thought it would be more. Seems like too small a number for the amount of work they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetoII.3782 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 > @"Rysdude.3824" said: > > @"LetoII.3782" said: > > > @"Kunzaito.8169" said: > > > > @"rektu.8209" said: > > > > Why would anet do that? They are getting money every relink.. They are just gonna milk it out till alliances come, and even after alliances, they will milk it out even more till gw3 comes out. > > > > > > People always say this, but are we *sure* this is actually a significant revenue stream, especially one for which they would compromise design decisions? Face it, the organized wvw pop is NOT that big. And I'm under the impression that the guilds that move don't pay real money for it anyway, they solicit/farm gold to convert to gems. I guess ultimately that drives the price of gems higher which is a small enticement for some other players to buy gems, but that's stretching the cause/effect motivator way past its limit, IMO. > > > > > > Let's say 1000 players move each relink. Since usually just one or two servers get stacked up, that seems ballpark reasonable to me. Now let's say 80% of those costs are covered by guilds that are already gold-rich or by farming, the other 20% are whales paying money or assorted guild members willing to pony up. That's 200 people paying $10 every two months to stack up wvw. ANet is not breaking the game for an extra $2000 every other month. If someone wants to propose different numbers I'm all ears, but I can't see it being wildly more than this. > > > > > > > You're counting guilds, the following pug population is much larger. Only 200 people transferring per matchup.. really? Across NA, EU and CN? I think you're off by orders of magnitude. > > Every gem traded for gold was purchased with real money. Last time I transferred I bought $35 in gems. 1200 me's pays a Dev salary for the year. Yeah, that's a big deal. > > > > Is that really how much a dev makes? I always thought it would be more. Seems like too small a number for the amount of work they do. > Google says 55k so off by 100 transfers. I keep forgetting it's been 20 years since I job shopped. <,< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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