Vavume.8065 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > Here's what ANet has said about Mystic Coins: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 3 year old quotes from people no longer at the company, it's hardly written in stone is it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do you have evidence which supports that the statement made three years ago is now incorrect? > > > > > > > > > > > > I didn't say it was incorrect, I said it's hardly written in stone, in other words it can change... > > > > > > > > > > Well practically everything “can change” so... > > > > > > > > Exactly... and Arenanet's stance may well have changed in the 3 years since those statements... > > > > > > Except unless there’s evidence to back that up we go by what they had previously said. Just because something can change doesn’t mean that it has because a certain amount of time has passed. > > > > I don't need evidence to state that things may change, or may have changed... > > Actually, yes you do if you’re using it to counter someone’s argument. Actually, No, I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > Here's what ANet has said about Mystic Coins: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 3 year old quotes from people no longer at the company, it's hardly written in stone is it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do you have evidence which supports that the statement made three years ago is now incorrect? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I didn't say it was incorrect, I said it's hardly written in stone, in other words it can change... > > > > > > > > > > > > Well practically everything “can change” so... > > > > > > > > > > Exactly... and Arenanet's stance may well have changed in the 3 years since those statements... > > > > > > > > Except unless there’s evidence to back that up we go by what they had previously said. Just because something can change doesn’t mean that it has because a certain amount of time has passed. > > > > > > I don't need evidence to state that things may change, or may have changed... > > > > Actually, yes you do if you’re using it to counter someone’s argument. > > No, I don't. A “well things can change” isn’t an instant counter to every argument. Someone using that, without evidence to support it, is essentially making a baseless claim which doesn’t add anything to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vavume.8065 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > Here's what ANet has said about Mystic Coins: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 3 year old quotes from people no longer at the company, it's hardly written in stone is it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do you have evidence which supports that the statement made three years ago is now incorrect? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I didn't say it was incorrect, I said it's hardly written in stone, in other words it can change... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Well practically everything “can change” so... > > > > > > > > > > > > Exactly... and Arenanet's stance may well have changed in the 3 years since those statements... > > > > > > > > > > Except unless there’s evidence to back that up we go by what they had previously said. Just because something can change doesn’t mean that it has because a certain amount of time has passed. > > > > > > > > I don't need evidence to state that things may change, or may have changed... > > > > > > Actually, yes you do if you’re using it to counter someone’s argument. > > > > No, I don't. > > A “well things can change” isn’t an instant counter to every argument. Someone using that, without evidence to support it, is essentially making a baseless claim which doesn’t add anything to the discussion. It added my opinion that things may change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > > > > > > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > > > > > > > > > > > > Here's what ANet has said about Mystic Coins: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 3 year old quotes from people no longer at the company, it's hardly written in stone is it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do you have evidence which supports that the statement made three years ago is now incorrect? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I didn't say it was incorrect, I said it's hardly written in stone, in other words it can change... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Well practically everything “can change” so... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Exactly... and Arenanet's stance may well have changed in the 3 years since those statements... > > > > > > > > > > > > Except unless there’s evidence to back that up we go by what they had previously said. Just because something can change doesn’t mean that it has because a certain amount of time has passed. > > > > > > > > > > I don't need evidence to state that things may change, or may have changed... > > > > > > > > Actually, yes you do if you’re using it to counter someone’s argument. > > > > > > No, I don't. > > > > A “well things can change” isn’t an instant counter to every argument. Someone using that, without evidence to support it, is essentially making a baseless claim which doesn’t add anything to the discussion. > > It added my opinion that things may change... Ok. It’s your **opinion**. That makes more sense then. It still doesn’t counter what what was stated by Anet three years ago unless there’s evidence to suggest it’s more than just an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vavume.8065 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > Ok. It’s your **opinion**. That makes more sense then. I'm pretty sure most people reading this thread realised it was my opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > Ok. It’s your **opinion**. That makes more sense then. > > I'm pretty sure most people reading this thread realised it was my opinion... Which didn’t counter that what Anet said three years ago remains true. I can present my opinion that Anet has made a hard stance on what they said and will not change. What does this add? None of us are providing any evidence to support our claim rendering both statements moot. Neither add to the discussion. So until evidence can be provided that what a Anet stated three years ago isn’t true anymore, it will remain to be true regardless of the opinions of other players. If someone isn’t going to fact up their claim with evidence then there’s really no reason to even address it further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vavume.8065 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > If someone isn’t going to fact up their claim with evidence then there’s really no reason to even address it further. This is a forum, not a court of law, I don't need to fact up or present evidence to make the statement that "Things MAY change", If you want to keep going around in circles here we can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 tl;dr According to the architects of the game's economy : "mystic coins are doing their job" — John Smith (paraphrase) **high values of m-coins are beneficial to the game's economy and hoarding is fine, as long as there's plenty of supply on the TP** **** The quote linked in an [earlier post](https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/comment/1369693/#Comment_1369693) is *four years* old, and is from Chris Cleary > https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Mystic-Coins-again/page/2#post6157178 > > Most of this price increase revolves around players that are pushing the value up due to the players willingness to pay more. If players are willing to pay more for an item, it’s going to keep increasing until eventually it hits a ceiling for the commodity. We’ve seen the same thing occur with numerous commodities over time. > > Right now there is a consistent supply of mystic coins entering the game (way more than are being consumed) and churning through the trading post at a very slow rate. Most of the coins on the market are ones that have been flipped. > > In retrospect, this is actually causing the daily login reward to be worth significantly more to players who wish to convert mystic coins to gold. PS Cleary, Smith, & O'Brien would expect that "ceiling" to increase as any game ages, because veterans simply can't help end up with increasing wealth (even those who spend all their coin end up with more "stuff" and become willing to spend more for "aspirational" goals). It's not anything surprising, as it happens with all commodities. **** *Nine months later*, [Mike O'Brien said]( ) > Mystic coins are a currency that all players get in small quantities and then can sell to wealthy players who want to use them to craft aspirational or luxury items. Seen in that light it’s not inherently bad for them to be expensive, nor is it unnatural for them to increase in price as wealthy players continue to accumulate more wealth. We can measure their success more in terms of their use: are they actively traded between players and actively used? And the answer to those is a resounding yes. And John Smith said (**emphasis** added) > **Mystic coins are doing their job.** **** Is there "plenty of supply" on the TP? Here's the data: * May 2016 (time of the 1st quote): 26k * Feb 2017 (time of 2nd quote): 17k * October 2020 (right before a major perturbation): 36k Peaks & Valleys: * Since those dates, the lowest supply was ~10k, which didn't last long. * Typical low points are around 15-18k, which were also uncommon and brief * Since those dates, the highest supply (day) was ~58k * High points >50k are common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > If someone isn’t going to fact up their claim with evidence then there’s really no reason to even address it further. > > This is a forum, not a court of law, I don't need to fact up or present evidence to make the statement that "Things MAY change", If you want to keep going around in circles here we can... There’s a difference between saying things may change and refuting something on that basis. You were doing the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vavume.8065 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > @"Vavume.8065" said: > > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > > > If someone isn’t going to fact up their claim with evidence then there’s really no reason to even address it further. > > > > This is a forum, not a court of law, I don't need to fact up or present evidence to make the statement that "Things MAY change", If you want to keep going around in circles here we can... > > There’s a difference between saying things may change and refuting something on that basis. You were doing the latter. I was doing the former... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psientist.6437 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 The mechanics that govern MC price are interesting and are also similar in some ways to the mechanics that govern rare infusions. However, they don't have anything to do with the BLTP trade service limit. I may be completely wrong, but I think we have reached some agreement that the trade service limit doesn't fight inflation and won't prevent prices from breaching the limit in the gray market. Hopefully, there is agreement on the positive effect rare, expensive, frivolous items have on the production of every other item. We just seem split on the scale of the damage it causes and the best way to repair that damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 No, i don;t think we have any sort of agreement on either of those points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 > @"Astralporing.1957" said: > No, i don;t think we have any sort of agreement on either of those points. So the price cap fights inflation? The price cap prevents prices from from breaching itself in the grey market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > @"Astralporing.1957" said: > > No, i don;t think we have any sort of agreement on either of those points. > > So the price cap fights inflation? For one, it lowers demand on the abovecap items at the abovecap price, because not everyone is going to be willing to go off-market for it (so, some people withhold from buying, while others sell at the cap - those transactions, while rare, do happen). And that does hold back the price at least a little bit - i am quite sure that without the cap it would be higher than what it is now at grey market. I also think, that just knowing that there _is_ a cap, and that this cap has never been changed (and there seems to be no indication it might change) is in itself a stabilizing factor on market. Yes, even if it does not directly impact anything except for a few items. People do know that there are limits, and that can definitely influence their behaviour to a degree. So i will definitely not agree with claim that the cap doesn't help at all. > > The price cap prevents prices from from breaching itself in the grey market? Like i said, it almost certainly at least partially holds them back. I also find the claim that "rare, expensive, frivolous items have positive effect on the production of every other item" to be completely unsubstantiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Astralporing.1957" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > > @"Astralporing.1957" said: > > > No, i don;t think we have any sort of agreement on either of those points. > > > > So the price cap fights inflation? > For one, it lowers demand on the abovecap items at the abovecap price, because not everyone is going to be willing to go off-market for it (so, some people withhold from buying, while others sell at the cap - those transactions, while rare, do happen). And that does hold back the price at least a little bit - i am quite sure that without the cap it would be higher than what it is now at grey market. > I also think, that just knowing that there _is_ a cap, and that this cap has never been changed (and there seems to be no indication it might change) is in itself a stabilizing factor on market. Yes, even if it does not directly impact anything except for a few items. People do know that there are limits, and that can definitely influence their behaviour to a degree. > > So i will definitely not agree with claim that the cap doesn't help at all. > Ok. So when you speak of inflation, you're referring to a specific item rather than the economy. You're mistaken about the cap. On what basis are you theorizing that the price would be higher without the cap? The infusions trade at a certain price and it makes little sense that the removal of the price cap would suddenly cause the prices to increase. But by all means provide your evidence that players will suddenly be willing to pay more for the infusions simply because there's no cap on buy listings and they can post them on the TP. With all of the other items on the TP, there are mechanisms in place to help pull the price towards equilibrium but there isn't for the infusion because of that cap. > > > > The price cap prevents prices from from breaching itself in the grey market? > Like i said, it almost certainly at least partially holds them back. > Holds them back how exactly? Do you really think that players think of the cap when listing their items to sell or when putting down buy listings? > I also find the claim that "rare, expensive, frivolous items have positive effect on the production of every other item" to be completely unsubstantiated. > I'm not sure what this has to do with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knite.1542 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > You're mistaken about the cap. On what basis are you theorizing that the price would be higher without the cap? The infusions trade at a certain price and it makes little sense that the removal of the price cap would suddenly cause the prices to increase. But by all means provide your evidence that players will suddenly be willing to pay more for the infusions simply because there's no cap on buy listings and they can post them on the TP. There would be more "effective" demand (because some people that are now afraid to use off-tp means of trading, or are simply unaware of the trading sites, and thus do not try to buy the infusions even if they want them and could afford them might participate as well). Increase in demand usually results in increase of price. Even the common practice of overbidding by 1c would keep price rising. > > I also find the claim that "rare, expensive, frivolous items have positive effect on the production of every other item" to be completely unsubstantiated. > > > > I'm not sure what this has to do with this. Then check the post i was responding to originally. That claim is from there - and it is one of the points i said we don't have an agreement on. It has nothing to do with the discussion about cap and inflation, but is relevant to my original post you responded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Astralporing.1957" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > You're mistaken about the cap. On what basis are you theorizing that the price would be higher without the cap? The infusions trade at a certain price and it makes little sense that the removal of the price cap would suddenly cause the prices to increase. But by all means provide your evidence that players will suddenly be willing to pay more for the infusions simply because there's no cap on buy listings and they can post them on the TP. > There would be more "effective" demand (because some people that are now afraid to use off-tp means of trading, or are simply unaware of the trading sites, and thus do not try to buy the infusions even if they want them and could afford them might participate as well). Increase in demand usually results in increase of price. Even the common practice of overbidding by 1c would keep price rising. > Except that demand you speak of would be through buy listings. The removal of the cap would allow those who get the drop, but don't want to trade them, to instead list them on the TP. This would create downward pressure on the sell price both on the TP and through trading. Those that have one or multiple buy listings at 10K, in hopes of flipping them, would then find it much more difficult to control the market this way as well as find their profit reduced as they now have to compete with players outbidding them. It's highly unlikely that players are going to be willing to pay more than the existing price simply because the cap is removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > Except that demand you speak of would be through buy listings. The removal of the cap would allow those who get the drop, but don't want to trade them, to instead list them on the TP. This would create downward pressure on the sell price both on the TP and through trading. That doesn't really work when there's so much difference between demand and supply. For the most part, people that want to sell the infusion do that already - some just do that at 10k. It's just it's a drop in the ocean compared to the demand. The supply is just way too small for a real competiton among sellers to be able to reduce the price in any meaningful way. Besides, those infusions already end up on the market - but currently the buyers have far less competition than they would have on TP. > It's highly unlikely that players are going to be willing to pay more than the existing price simply because the cap is removed. They would not do it because the cap would be removed. They would have to do it because they would be competing against more other potential buyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrilana.1396 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Astralporing.1957" said: > > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > > Except that demand you speak of would be through buy listings. The removal of the cap would allow those who get the drop, but don't want to trade them, to instead list them on the TP. This would create downward pressure on the sell price both on the TP and through trading. > That doesn't really work when there's so much difference between demand and supply. For the most part, people that want to sell the infusion do that already - some just do that at 10k. It's just it's a drop in the ocean compared to the demand. The supply is just way too small for a real competiton among sellers to be able to reduce the price in any meaningful way. > Besides, those infusions already end up on the market - but currently the buyers have far less competition than they would have on TP. > Have there been an increase it buy listings for 10K? The amount of players creating buy listings to push up to the existing trading price would have to be significantly larger than it is now. You also have to realize that the number of players who have an excess of 10K gold is fairly small. What you're suggesting that would happen realistically wouldn't. > > It's highly unlikely that players are going to be willing to pay more than the existing price simply because the cap is removed. > They would not do it because the cap would be removed. They would have to do it because they would be competing against more other potential buyers. > Which would be through buy listings and it's a bit absurd to believe that it would skyrocket and surpass the existing trading price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psientist.6437 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Individual items experience price inflation. Individual items are bundled into a lifestyle that can increase in cost, lifestyle inflation. Lifestyles can be bundled and the largest, most coherent bundle can experience General Inflation. The trade service limit has a range of significant effects on the price of items above the limit. The limit forces demand to cross a barrier that filters for personality, reducing total demand. The money saved by paying virgin supply less than market value could be passed on to demand. Why would we want that? How could a lower price for rare infusions be worth that? I don't know where a genuine market value for rare infusions would land after removing or adapting to the trade limit. I lean towards the assumption it would rise quickly as frustrated demand went through current supply followed by a drop below current gray market value that slowly recovers. If a lower price for rare infusions is a problem for the studio, they could always change drop rates for existing or future items. Rare, expensive, frivolous items have positive effect on the production of every other item. We can't assume that the demand for any item would transfer to other items, if that first item didn't exist. This is an important economic principle called revealed preference that asserts choice matters. The demand for frivolous items can increase as price rises. We can with confidence predict that rare, expensive, frivolous items bring demand for gold into the Tyrian economy that would not exist without them. Demand for 'refis' will gather gold from faucets, the gem exchange, and the TP. By definition, refis demand large quantities of gold or large quantities of gems, materials or time spent at faucets. We can safely predict that item price predicts the probability that gems are used for the sale. The more expensive an item is, the more likely demand turns to the gem exchange for gold. Refis have a unique ability to generate gem to gold conversions that would be lost without them. Demand for refis could sell materials on the TP and would likely sell most everything they gathered. The way drops and materials are distributed predicts the demand for refis will increase the supply of a wide range of items. The case for rare, expensive, frivolous items having a positive effect on the production of every other item is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnius Magius.8091 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 I suggest a one time refund of listing fees for over priced items that will never sell. I see a lot of not so rare stuff going for 10000 gold. I have the skin for everyone I looked at. The TP is cluttered with items like this. Many are probably by extinct or deceased players. ANET needs to clean house of this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sobx.1758 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Carnius Magius.8091" said: >The TP is cluttered with items like this. Many are probably by extinct or deceased players. ANET needs to clean house of this stuff. ...how does it matter for literally anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psientist.6437 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 > @"Carnius Magius.8091" said: > I suggest a one time refund of listing fees for over priced items that will never sell. I see a lot of not so rare stuff going for 10000 gold. I have the skin for everyone I looked at. The TP is cluttered with items like this. Many are probably by extinct or deceased players. ANET needs to clean house of this stuff. These are either items being used for RMT or expensive, nearly irrational speculation. The trade service limit does keep the BLTP database leaner but few players are willing to waste money on irrational speculation. The limit does make black market RMT slower and gives the studio time to interrupt a series of transactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 > @"Ayrilana.1396" said: > Have there been an increase it buy listings for 10K? The amount of players creating buy listings to push up to the existing trading price would have to be significantly larger than it is now. You also have to realize that the number of players who have an excess of 10K gold is fairly small. What you're suggesting that would happen realistically wouldn't. Sure, the amount of buyers would not increase by a lot in absolute numbers, but then there's not a lot of buyers currently. Even a small number of players would still be a huge increase percenatewise. And no, not everyone puts a buy order at 10k - with the amount of buy orders that are already in place, and the extremely limited supply, any order put now would need to wait for years to be fulfilled, so there's really no point in doing it. > > > It's highly unlikely that players are going to be willing to pay more than the existing price simply because the cap is removed. > > They would not do it because the cap would be removed. They would have to do it because they would be competing against more other potential buyers. > > Which would be through buy listings and it's a bit absurd to believe that it would skyrocket and surpass the existing trading price. I don't know whether it would skyrocket, but i am sure it _would_ surpass the current prices. At this point we can't really be sure which of us is right, but that only brings us back to the original point - no, we _don't_ have any agreement on if/how cap removal would affect prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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