Volatile magic trophy shipments?

[Veprovina.4876]

Are they worth it? Cause it seems like there's some heavy RNG involved with not many T6 mats in them.

 

First time i spent 5 gold and got like 4g worth of materials out of them.

Next time i spent 4 gold and got like 2-3g worth of materials out of them.

 

Random ones of course.

 

I mean, for 5 gold, instead of the shipment to get random T1-T6 mats, i could have spent that amount to buy the mats i need directly from TP.

 

Can someone explain why those shipments are "worth it"?

Cause everyone is telling me they are and i don't see it.

 

Currently i'm at a gold loss from buying them.

 

And why can't i get them from WvW reward tracks? Is WvW supposed to be full of poor people or what? We need mats too you know...

[Hesione.9412]

The drop rate research for the trophy shipments is here: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Trophy_Shipment/Drop_rate

 

I've been having an off-wiki discussion about this information because I think it is difficult to grasp. Part of the difficulty in interpreting the drop rates is that it is apparently possible to get more than one material in one trophy shipment.

 

The drop rates shown on that page are based on large numbers of shipments, over 5,100 shipments as at the time I post this. That is a large enough number to see the expectation of materials on opening the shipments.

 

With opening 9 shipments (first time = opened 5, second time you opened 4), that is too small a sample from which to draw any conclusions about the value of the shipments.

[Veprovina.4876]

> @"Hesione.9412" said:

> The drop rate research for the trophy shipments is here: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Trophy_Shipment/Drop_rate

>

> I've been having an off-wiki discussion about this information because I think it is difficult to grasp. Part of the difficulty in interpreting the drop rates is that it is apparently possible to get more than one material in one trophy shipment.

>

> The drop rates shown on that page are based on large numbers of shipments, over 5,100 shipments as at the time I post this. That is a large enough number to see the expectation of materials on opening the shipments.

>

> With opening 9 shipments (first time = opened 5, second time you opened 4), that is too small a sample from which to draw any conclusions about the value of the shipments.

 

Yeah, that's why i'm asking, i didn't draw conclusions, i asked a queston. "I'm not seeing it" is not a conclusion. :wink:

Cause i don't want to keep buying them if it's better to buy on TP.

Neat! Didn't find that page in my search.

 

I mean, i found this:

 

But i don't have 2000 gold to spend on shipments.

So i couldn't see the bigger picture of course.

 

So, what you're saying is that statistically, even in small quantities or over time, it's better than buying T6 mats on TP, right?

Like, for getting mats for legendaries and stuff...

[Khisanth.2948]

For small quantities it is entirely based on luck.

 

[Cuks.8241]

I don't think they are worth it if you plan to make gold with them or at least not worth farming for them. I don't have the data to really back it up, it's just my small sample size experience. The trophies took a dip in price in the last 6-7 months. Maybe leather is still OK. Keep in mind you are also losing the TP fee if you are selling them. So I would say OK for hoarding mats.

 

I checked and this site still values trophies and leather quite high. Not sure if it's up to date. https://gw2lunchbox.com/IstanShipments.html

Doesn't take into account you need volatile magic also.

[Hesione.9412]

When I buy them, I'm normally spending 20 or 30 gold a time - so 20 or 30 shipments. Even still, that is a small sample and I can experience large deviations from the expected numbers shown in the drop rate table.

 

Now, probability (in this case, RNG or "luck") has no memory. BUT: small samples may tend towards extremes - either extremely lucky or extremely unlucky. This is because there is no off-set that you get from opening larger numbers of shipments. Larger samples tend towards "regression to the mean" so your materials approximate those in the drop rate table.

 

If you opened around 200 shipments (200 gold) you would see a drop rate that reasonably approximates the drop rate table. That's also a heck of a lot of volatile magic to consume, as well.

[Veprovina.4876]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> For small quantities it is entirely based on luck.

>

 

You mean, you get better results from buying them in bulk?

 

> @"Cuks.8241" said:

> I don't think they are worth it if you plan to make gold with them or at least not worth farming for them. I don't have the data to really back it up, it's just my small sample size experience. The trophies took a dip in price in the last 6-7 months. Maybe leather is still OK. Keep in mind you are also losing the TP fee if you are selling them. So I would say OK for hoarding mats.

>

> I checked and this site still values trophies and leather quite high. Not sure if it's up to date. https://gw2lunchbox.com/IstanShipments.html

> Doesn't take into account you need volatile magic also.

 

SInce i can get other shipments from WvW tracks, i'm not really interested in those.

Also, you get tons of mats from salvaging stuff and leather farms, so far i've never ran out of those materials so i'm not buying those shipments.

 

I'm not interesting in selling mats either, i'm more interested in *getting* them to do legendaries.

So i'm wondering if Trophy shipments are a viable option.

[Khisanth.2948]

> @"Veprovina.4876" said:

> > @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > For small quantities it is entirely based on luck.

> >

>

> You mean, you get better results from buying them in bulk?

 

Not better, just closer to what is expected. With small quantities your result might be better or worse than the expected result.