GW2 Population: 2018 vs 2016 [Crosspost from Reddit]

[FOX.3582]

> @"witcher.3197" said:

> Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

>

> GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

 

Exactly this! What are they thinking, 3,3 million, lol? They hardly cap 300k. Ads are getting smarter I guess...

[Vayne.8563]

> @"FOX.3582" said:

> > @"witcher.3197" said:

> > Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

> >

> > GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

>

> Exactly this! What are they thinking, 3,3 million, lol? They hardly cap 300k. Ads are getting smarter I guess...

 

Well since the game is making at least 4 million dollars a month, without having a subscription fee, that would mean that the average spend per player at 300k is what? What you're saying doesn't really make sense, since there are undoubtedly a lot of free to play players who don't spend money and a lot of long term players who use gold to gems to get stuff from the gem store.

 

I'm not sure what you're basing your numbers on, but they don't really add up.

[Fremtid.3528]

You forget that what you're seeing when you log in is just half of the numbers there's either EU or NA when you log in.

[GrubySzymek.1362]

> @"Vayne.8563" said:

> > @"FOX.3582" said:

> > > @"witcher.3197" said:

> > > Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

> > >

> > > GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

> >

> > Exactly this! What are they thinking, 3,3 million, lol? They hardly cap 300k. Ads are getting smarter I guess...

>

> Well since the game is making at least 4 million dollars a month, without having a subscription fee, that would mean that the average spend per player at 300k is what? What you're saying doesn't really make sense, since there are undoubtedly a lot of free to play players who don't spend money and a lot of long term players who use gold to gems to get stuff from the gem store.

>

> I'm not sure what you're basing your numbers on, but they don't really add up.

 

It's well known fact that games living off microtransactions are paid by whale minority.

[Vayne.8563]

> @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > @"Vayne.8563" said:

> > > @"FOX.3582" said:

> > > > @"witcher.3197" said:

> > > > Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

> > > >

> > > > GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

> > >

> > > Exactly this! What are they thinking, 3,3 million, lol? They hardly cap 300k. Ads are getting smarter I guess...

> >

> > Well since the game is making at least 4 million dollars a month, without having a subscription fee, that would mean that the average spend per player at 300k is what? What you're saying doesn't really make sense, since there are undoubtedly a lot of free to play players who don't spend money and a lot of long term players who use gold to gems to get stuff from the gem store.

> >

> > I'm not sure what you're basing your numbers on, but they don't really add up.

>

> It's well known fact that games living off microtransactions are paid by whale minority.

 

Lots of things are known facts. as it's a known fact that a good portion of the player base of any game spends not a single dime on the game. But to make 4 million a month minimum, that's not six guys sitting in a basement in Iowa. Whales don't spend a million dollars a month each. They'll skew the numbers, but the number of people who use gold or don't buy anything at all are going to compensate to some degree too.

 

People are throwing around numbers without any evidence at all. I find it very hard to believe that this game only has 300,000 players, even just in the US or Europe, never mind both combined.

 

[GrubySzymek.1362]

> @"Vayne.8563" said:

> > @"Kheldorn.5123" said:

> > > @"Vayne.8563" said:

> > > > @"FOX.3582" said:

> > > > > @"witcher.3197" said:

> > > > > Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

> > > > >

> > > > > GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

> > > >

> > > > Exactly this! What are they thinking, 3,3 million, lol? They hardly cap 300k. Ads are getting smarter I guess...

> > >

> > > Well since the game is making at least 4 million dollars a month, without having a subscription fee, that would mean that the average spend per player at 300k is what? What you're saying doesn't really make sense, since there are undoubtedly a lot of free to play players who don't spend money and a lot of long term players who use gold to gems to get stuff from the gem store.

> > >

> > > I'm not sure what you're basing your numbers on, but they don't really add up.

> >

> > It's well known fact that games living off microtransactions are paid by whale minority.

>

> Lots of things are known facts. as it's a known fact that a good portion of the player base of any game spends not a single dime on the game. But to make 4 million a month minimum, that's not six guys sitting in a basement in Iowa. Whales don't spend a million dollars a month each. They'll skew the numbers, but the number of people who use gold or don't buy anything at all are going to compensate to some degree too.

>

> People are throwing around numbers without any evidence at all. I find it very hard to believe that this game only has 300,000 players, even just in the US or Europe, never mind both combined.

>

 

No need to go extremum. There are more than 6 whales in gw2.

[MithranArkanere.8957]

My guess is that we are probably the size of Guam if we count daily logins, Montenegro if we count active players that login irregularly, and Finland if we count all accounts.

[FOX.3582]

> @"Vayne.8563" said:

> > @"FOX.3582" said:

> > > @"witcher.3197" said:

> > > Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

> > >

> > > GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

> >

> > Exactly this! What are they thinking, 3,3 million, lol? They hardly cap 300k. Ads are getting smarter I guess...

>

> Well since the game is making at least 4 million dollars a month, without having a subscription fee, that would mean that the average spend per player at 300k is what? What you're saying doesn't really make sense, since there are undoubtedly a lot of free to play players who don't spend money and a lot of long term players who use gold to gems to get stuff from the gem store.

>

> I'm not sure what you're basing your numbers on, but they don't really add up.

 

 

That would be 13 dollars per player per month, so what’s your point? Plus I don’t believe their revenue is 4 million per month.

[Blocki.4931]

It's a form of bias to not acknowledge how many people there are. I can bet my butt that at least half a million of those people have never used the LFG tool themselves, let alone know of it. Megaservers don't mean that everybody is on the same map. You have no idea how many simultaneous map instances are opened and how many people are on them. You wouldn't have a way of checking that either. PvP and other game modes aren't something 100% of the playerbase play either, long queue times aren't exactly indicative of playerbase, not in a game that praises itself on having progression wherever you want it to be.

 

So don't be so negative about it. They are doing extremely well, they are making money and it's coming from somewhere. Mount skin sales, great offers for chests or other sales amount to that much. Doesn't mean everybody has to pay something, but since that is a growing trend it's not going to decline anytime soon I don't think.

 

Personally I've spent around 400 bucks on the game over 1975 days. I'll gladly toss them all my excess money for something I enjoy and I won't stop in the near future either.

[Vayne.8563]

> @"FOX.3582" said:

> > @"Vayne.8563" said:

> > > @"FOX.3582" said:

> > > > @"witcher.3197" said:

> > > > Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

> > > >

> > > > GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

> > >

> > > Exactly this! What are they thinking, 3,3 million, lol? They hardly cap 300k. Ads are getting smarter I guess...

> >

> > Well since the game is making at least 4 million dollars a month, without having a subscription fee, that would mean that the average spend per player at 300k is what? What you're saying doesn't really make sense, since there are undoubtedly a lot of free to play players who don't spend money and a lot of long term players who use gold to gems to get stuff from the gem store.

> >

> > I'm not sure what you're basing your numbers on, but they don't really add up.

>

>

> That would be 13 dollars per player per month, so what’s your point? Plus I don’t believe their revenue is 4 million per month.

 

My point is the average spend in the industry for player is four dollars. SO if it's 13 a month per player, that would mean that it's 4 times the estimated population of 300 thousand. Might or might not be different in this game, but considering this isn't a pay to win game, and most games with the average of $4 don't allow the gold to gem exchange, it could be a lot more.

 

Edit: The amount of money the game takes in is a matter of public record. 4 million dollars a month is the LOWEST it's been, since launch. You can look it up if you want to research NcSoft's quarterly reports.

[mauried.5608]

Whats do the numbers mean anyway?

As GW2 is a F2P game , the revenue for Anet has no relationship to how many players there are.

The only number thats meaningful is how many players buy gems with RL money, and theres no way to determine this.

 

[witcher.3197]

> @"mauried.5608" said:

> Whats do the numbers mean anyway?

> As GW2 is a F2P game , the revenue for Anet has no relationship to how many players there are.

> The only number thats meaningful is how many players buy gems with RL money, and theres no way to determine this.

>

 

GW2 isn't an F2P game, it's a B2P one with F2P existing as more of an extended trial.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

As a reminder: don't get too caught up in the wording of the original redditor: these estimates are used to gauge interest; they aren't meant to directly reflect how many people are in game at any given time nor even over any given period. "Active player" is a misleading term in this context — think of it instead as "actively interested player," i.e. someone who logs on just often enough.

 

As others have noted, such numbers aren't useful for measuring the overall health of the game nor how well ANet is doing financially. Instead, they are a good way to compare relative enthusiasm at different periods or for ANet to see what sparks people's interest.

 

So try not to read too much into the numbers (and see if you can avoid reading too little into them, too).

[Despond.2174]

All I know is I can login to GW2 at any time and there are heaps of people doing all forms of content. It's definitely got a top3ish MMO population. Many people who leave can come back and all their ascended gear etc is still the best gear; that's what makes this MMO more appealing. Other MMOs if I was to return now, I'd be @ the beginning all over again. I know some prefer having gear "reset", but GW2 definitely has the more easy/forgiving gear system that makes it smoother to return and still be @ the top.

 

I hope they really hit it out the ballpark with the third expansion.

[Ardenwolfe.8590]

I must side with Vayne on this one. His logic makes more sense and he has documented facts, and not opinion, to back his point. Regardless, I don't care about the actual numbers. It's obvious the game is alive and doing well to anyone with eyes. The daily reset proves this out.

 

As far as certain maps and dungeons? Incentive, or lack thereof, makes that happen . . . not population. Again, dailies prove this out. Mesmer port to the end of the jumping puzzle, anyone?

 

Let's not get that twisted.

[Einlanzer.1627]

Yeah, there's no way 3 million players is accurate. I don't think WoW even has that many active players left, and WoW is definitely still more popular than GW2 by a large margin.

 

That said, I don't think Vayne is wrong, here - GW2 doesn't seem to be drowning either and all signs point to healthy stability with a decent if not exceptional future. It made 35 mil in Q4 of 2017, due in large part to sales for PoF. I'm curious to see the Q1 numbers, but I'm sure they'll be comparable to what preceded that launch at least. As the game grows in size and scope, it's likely it'll attract new players unless they make a lot of screw ups that betray the player base.

 

I think lack of good content is the main thing that's held GW2 back from the beginning, and it's still a problem even if it's less of a problem than before HoT. Both expansions have offered only a handful of zones with no new races, dungeons, weapon types, and only one new raid and a few new graphic models. Not a great track record, and the game still has a lot of catching up to do.

 

They'd probably be doing better overall if they'd gone with an expansion model from the beginning instead of wasting 3 years on LW updates of dubious quality that can't compete with the release of an expansion (very bad leadership move.) I think some of the issue is they had a lack of foresight in the game's development and designed it in a way that was difficult to scale, which is a very bad move for an MMO. The problem with new races is a perfect example of this. They sort of dug themselves into a corner.

[Lucius.2140]

Ok, mandatory: ¡long life GW2!, i have quitted this game three times, one cleaning inventory and deleting characters, but i always return.

 

That been said, the worst time of my life, this game helped me, i wish it could prosper even more.

 

The active player concept its not a very good one, what you could try (if you want/i hope that you want) its a triple poll: reddit, forum and guilds.

Basically aim to check log time of people that connected in the last month (the tricky part here its the bi-three monthly LS realease and the festivals).

Then with the input, get the ratios of actual active player (dunno, like 2 hours a week) and log for daily. Proceed to see how it behave in the diferent polls (guild one its less reliable and difficult to get but also will cater to a different group of players).

 

That will help you to get specters of ingame real population.

 

Edit: If the poll go by hours played you can also get how much cover in mean or go for differents times of the day - another poll).

That been said with the last part you could inference the number by the hours played and hours mounted of the last infography.

[Gehenna.3625]

> @"witcher.3197" said:

> > @"otto.5684" said:

> > > @"witcher.3197" said:

> > > Interesting post but 3,3 million is very very hard to believe. 300-500k would be a closer estimate and that including hypercasuals.

> > >

> > > GW2 is popular, but 3,3 million? Roughly half of WoW's subscriber count? Hard to imagine tbh.

> >

> > Actually it sounds about right, considering that how they define "active player." That does not mean they actually play, just maybe log in once every few weeks. If GW2 had subscribers (which are players that play on semi weekly basis) the number will probably drop to about 500K, as you noted.

>

> 3,3 million "active" users would mean a huge cultural impact which I just don't see. Youtube numbers and twitch are at a record low, revenue is dropping, and I don't really see GW2 mentioned anywhere other than GW2 forums.

 

Actually revenue has gone up this year so I'm not sure why you say that revenue is dropping. That was true last year but not this year. It's up about 50% from last year roughly. The revenue bottomed out around 4 million dollars a month and has gone up around 6 million a month. The facts are in the financial reports. Considering that it's normal for revenue to go down over time, this is especially remarkable. Still I think that people overestimate the actual player numbers and I would estimate them much more conservatively between 500k and 1.5 million tops. But that's actually pretty good for an MMO that is not WoW.

 

Of course right now there are the anniversary sales which should boost revenue for this quarter and the next LS chapter can also add new stuff that can also generate new revenue if they so choose. Adding new content will be key and I think for example player housing could be one of those things that adds new content and can generate revenue in the gem shop as well.

[acelara orion.4210]

gw 2 has 3 million?? lfg is dead pvp is dead wvw is dead(not wknd)__only thing alive is T4,Raids,some metas thats it