Political Situation in Elona after Joko

[Juli Jules.8490]

If this matter has already been discussed elsewhere, please direct me there :)

 

I'd like to hear your opinions about how the political landscape of Elona might change after Jokos Death? At first I thought Anet might not pay any Attention to it (like they usually do) and just move on with the Kralk Plot … but they actually did adress it in the latest update, much to my surprise.

 

So we clearly don't have any sort of King or Person with Authority that could take over as King of Elona after Joko. I think it might be more likely that Elona would fall back into the individual provinces, not a united Elona like during Jokos Reign. So far we have different factions that might divide the provinces between themselves, maybe with the Sunspears serving as Protectors of all provinces like they used to?

 

- The Free Awakend could rule over Vaabi maybe? Since both Awakened and normaly people live their side by side pretty peacefully?

- The Mordant Crescent could rule over Istan, since their Main Hall is on the Island and it seems they had a change of mind.

- The Joko Loyalist could take over the Desolation and Jokos now vacant Bone Palace maybe?

- The Sunspears maybe ruling over Kourna from their new HQ in the Suns Refuge?

- Also the City of Amnoon remaining a free City, loosely connected to the former Empire.

 

Just some ideas by me. Interested to hear what you have to say? Maybe Elona will just slide into a civil war?

[Narcemus.1348]

I have to say that I was a bit disappointed to not see any Vabbian Nobles or unassociated Kournans or Istani invited to this meeting. I can't help but feel that they deserved a seat at the table...

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

> @"Narcemus.1348" said:

> I have to say that I was a bit disappointed to not see any Vabbian Nobles or unassociated Kournans or Istani invited to this meeting. I can't help but feel that they deserved a seat at the table...

 

Amnoon should have gotten a say too, since they're of Elonian descent and had recently have been having to deal with Joko's expansion. And there's now towns in The Desolation again. But I think that four groups was already stuffy a bit. Besides that, while Kournans, Istan, and Vabbians were independent of each other in GW1, they weren't under Joko's rule. I think the citizens of those four regions (plus The Desolation towns, that is) being split between Loyalists represented by Utumishi, and non-Loyalists seemingly represented by Sianna or Kossan was fitting enough.

 

Do we even know what role Sianna played in her Awakened Life Under Joko? She was a corsair once upon a time, but after that?

[Randulf.7614]

Will likely split into territories unless a strong enough figure can unite them (poss with aid from the Order), which right now seems unlikely. A former Kingdom and land mass of that size is ripe for civil war or splitting off into sep states.

 

Personally i see it divided into lots of little states for now

[draxynnic.3719]

I suspect that part of the reason we don't see nobles and the like representing the general populace is that those people aren't used to _actually_ having political power, and those that are politically active have probably thrown themselves behind the Sunspears or the Order of Shadows.

 

My expectation is this:

 

The Domain of Istan and Domain of Kourna are effectively under Sunspear and allied administration, in the aftermath of the events of chapters 1 and 3 respectively. (It's implied that the Great Hall and Champion's Dawn were liberated around the time we were there, and I doubt "Palawadan" would have held out through the period of confusion after Joko's death. Similarly, once Joko went down in Kourna, I suspect any of the surviving Awakened that didn't throw down their weapons were summarily dealt with.) It's possible that Purity and the Elon Riverlands went the same way: it's less clear since the ratio of rebels to Awakened in those areas is smaller, so it's possible that the disorientation was weaker among them. The Desolation proper, particularly the Bone Palace, is probably firmly in the Mordant Crescent's control, while Vabbi - which seems to be the reason where Joko was most accepted by the living populace - is likely divided.

 

The Sunspears and the Free Awakened will probably form a de facto alliance, since their goals are compatible, even if prejudice against Awakened remains among the lower-ranking Sunspears. The Order of Shadows will probably put its support behind this grouping, at least publicly. Given the indications we've seen that the Order of Shadows might not be entirely virtuous, though, I can see Kossan being used as a figurehead, while the rest of the Order works behind the scenes to destabilise any alliance sufficiently that the Order retains substantial political influence.

 

Utumishi and the loyalist faction seem content to keep their proverbial heads down, at least for the time being. I don't think they have any solid ambitions beyond wanting to form some sort of rump state where they can continue to be loyal to Joko, and even then, I think there's a degree of 'denial stage of mourning' in play.

 

The Mordant Crescent is probably the wildcard here. Iberu has shown a willingness to attempt to seize control, and while the Crescent in the Jahai Bluffs seem to have been largely cowed, there might be other commanders elsewhere who might attempt such a bid.

 

Splitting into de facto provinces is probably inevitable. Istan and Kourna will probably have the most in common (both seem to have suffered significantly under Joko, and thus will probably be most firmly in the Sunspear camp), but the water gap will likely mean that they are governed at least semi-independently. Vabbian culture and attitudes are probably sufficiently distinct that they'll be separate, but it's also the region with the most acceptance of Awakened, so I'd expect the Free Awakened to congregate in Vabbi. The Desolation will probably be pretty much exclusively Awakened, while Purity and the Riverlands are probably too distant to remain functionally part of Elona without a strong ruler to bridge the Desolation.

 

Best case scenario is that the Sunspears manage to form some sort of ruling council that is able to administer Elona as a single entity. Part of this could involve a project to re-divert the Elon back into its original course, evacuating Purity and Palawa's Grace into Elona proper. The Desolation becomes the Awakened homeland, Istan and Kourna become majority living-human, while Vabbi might be more evenly mixed.

 

Worst-case scenario is that Elona is split as the Mordant Crescent seize the Desolation. They may or may not seize Vabbi as well, or the Free Awakened might stand up to them in Vabbi, while Purity and the Riverlands might either be seized by the Crescent or become a de facto protectorate of Amnoon. Either way, in this scenario, Kourna and Vabbi go back to having the same food supply issues, and if these aren't somehow resolved, southern Elona might end up having to bend the proverbial knee to the Crescent all over again. That said, however, Kourna's living, food-consuming population is probably lower than it was at the time of Joko's takeover, and if the Tyrians decide to support Istan and Kourna, then it's possible that Kourna could be supplied by gate the way Ebonhawke was during the charr-human war.

[Castigator.3470]

I'd say the Elon Riverlands now fall under the protection of Amnoon, as the great wall to the south makes Elona itself very defensible, giving little incentive to keep the swamps outside of it. The Deadhouse may fall into disrepair, but that's okay, because without Joko's death factories there is no need to make the northern farmer's lives miserable.

 

To the north, in the Desert Highland, we may see the trade route reopen, which allows trade with Ebonhawke and the Legions. But that requires a bit of resources, and I'm not sure if Amnoon can open the passage alone. Maybe if Iron Legion, Ebonhawke and Amnoon work together?

[Aaron Ansari.1604]

drax mentioned it already, but I suspect the fate of the Riverlands boils down to how dependent the rest of Elona's food supply is on those towns right now. If the whole of Istan has suffered the same environmental degradation as we've seen around Palawadan, even the island might not be self-sufficient any longer. If that's the case, the banks of the Elon may represent the only sufficiently fertile land remaining within Elona's reach.

[draxynnic.3719]

> @"Aaron Ansari.1604" said:

> drax mentioned it already, but I suspect the fate of the Riverlands boils down to how dependent the rest of Elona's food supply is on those towns right now. If the whole of Istan has suffered the same environmental degradation as we've seen around Palawadan, even the island might not be self-sufficient any longer. If that's the case, the banks of the Elon may represent the only sufficiently fertile land remaining within Elona's reach.

 

It's interesting to note that the areas that were green in GW1 are dry in GW2, and vice versa...

 

That said, the primary food-producing areas in GW1 Istan seemed to be the village in the northwest of Zehlon Reach, and the Issnur Isles. So what we've seen isn't really indicative of the area's current fertility. Odds are it can still only produce enough to feed itself, though.

[Castigator.3470]

> @"Aaron Ansari.1604" said:

> drax mentioned it already, but I suspect the fate of the Riverlands boils down to how dependent the rest of Elona's food supply is on those towns right now. If the whole of Istan has suffered the same environmental degradation as we've seen around Palawadan, even the island might not be self-sufficient any longer. If that's the case, the banks of the Elon may represent the only sufficiently fertile land remaining within Elona's reach.

 

Hmm. Kryta may be able to seize a business opportunity here. I mean in the meantime, before Elona manages to recover, Krytan grain may be able to fetch excellent prices.

On the other hand, Joko's agrarian system of indentured servitude may not have been that efficient to begin with. Plus Elona has knowledge about irrigation systems, so they may be able to pump water from the Elon river, maybe even desalinate seawater for their agriculture. As for the Scarab Plague, the Sunspears may already be hard at work exterminating the pestilence once again. This time with help from the Free Awakened, because even undead don't like it when their family members starve. I recall that one event where you train with the awakened family of mother Tharwa.

As for the political unity of Elona: From what I can gather, everyone would prefer to keep Elona united, but there is currently no central authority to rule Elona. For now it might be best to set up an interregnum council (already in progress), re establish contact with the outside world and keep the branded out. When the situation clears up, Kossan might have a chance to become king of Elona, with Spearmarshal Zaeim as his military man, his ancestor Koss preventing him from being manipulated by the order of Shadows. The Free Awakened may be able to continue their life as normal, which is serving as a branch of the Elonian military and the Mordant Crescent would have to fall in line or be exiled. This may sound harsh, but Iberu demonstated the risk of keeping Joko's elite organization around.

Without any possible military support from the Mordant Crescent the administration of Elona will eventually rid itself of the Utumishis among its ranks, but for now we need to make sure that they don't do anything stupid, such as weakening Elona from within. The order of Shadows might be perfect for this task.

[dusanyu.4057]

right now i am just waiting for the big back stab from the Mordant Crescent and the Loyalists.

[Juli Jules.8490]

I just hope that once Arenanet is done with the Kralk and Elona Plot, that the new political situation there will be adressed somehow. I fear that Arenanet might just move on with the next plot like they do so often and just leave it open what will become of Elona. I would hate to see that.

[Castigator.3470]

> @"Juli Jules.8490" said:

> I just hope that once Arenanet is done with the Kralk and Elona Plot, that the new political situation there will be adressed somehow. I fear that Arenanet might just move on with the next plot like they do so often and just leave it open what will become of Elona. I would hate to see that.

 

I mean it makes some amount of sense, that a traveling adventurer can only keep tabs on so many things, and to be quite honest my charr characters would use their downtime to get back in touch with their warband. But there could be some news on how the world is going, maybe even a newspaper in Lion's Arch, that can be found everywhere the Pact has its bases. The printing presses are there, we just need a team of talented individuals to make it work.

 

>! I propose: The Lion's Arch Herald

>! The first newspaper of Tyria founded by a number of odd individuals, who came together in LA and turned and idea into a business.

>! The former Priory Researcher Imela Missenden, who felt the need to record the recent history of Tyria, but quickly encountered conflicting accounts with no means to investigate the matter.

>! The lack of reliable research into hot topics led to the encounter with the sylvari rogue Beithe, who was already running a small investigative business, but her current clientele was not interested in secrets, but rather quick updates on prices, futures, business opportunities and the latest trends in trading. They had a discussion about commercial viability of the project and its intended purpose as either a chronicle for the wealthy elite, of which several already existed, or a way for everyone to get reliable information faster than the competition could. That would require someone with expertise in printing.

>! The expertise came in the form of Haxius Leadsmelter, a charr born in Lion's Arch, who built and designed printing presses, but had trouble to keep his business running, as some mysterious competition seemed to grab all the good contracts before he could.

>! When he was offered to concentrate on building designing and maintaining heavy duty printing presses, he joined the project and along with him, the rest of the Lead Warband, a wild mix of charr native to Lion's Arch. Before the team could set out, however, a blinding flash of light interrupted them.

>! The source of the flash had been Uffa, who failed in her attempt to turn silver into gold using radiation, but successfully created an image of that event into a silver film. After she and the group had a conversation about their respective projects, she declared that she had, after all, succeeded in turning silver into gold! But even with the pictures as evidence, not carvings, or paintings, fashioned from the mind of an artist, but accurate representations of reality, they'd still need people out there with their eyes and ears directed at the world itself.

>! After some deliberation Beithe suggested to enlist the help of the Skalds, to hunt down legends all over the world and who would make a better traveler than these traveling warrior poets? At this point Ander Far-Seeker decided to introduce himself. While not a bard he was an experienced adventurer and definitely willing to tell the tales of his encounters.

>! At the beginning the Herald reported news and events centered around Lion's Arch, with the occasional story brought home by Ander, often from remote places, like the Shiverpeaks, or Mt. Maelstrom. It was amazing how fast the norn could cross the continent and soon the Herald's readership had grown large enough to employ reporters in every major city.

[Jimbru.6014]

1. Amnoon will likely go back to being independent, or as independent as Zalambur allows it to be. He has already made "arrangements" with Ellen Kiel which will lead to trade growth with Lion's Arch; hopefully some of the supplies brought by that will find their way to the more impoverished regions like Kourna.

 

2. The Free Awakened, Mordant Crescent, and Joko Loyalists will come to blows sooner than later over control of Joko's former holdings throughout the PoF and LS4 parts of the world.

- Gandara in particular will be a major point of contention. It seems likely the Free Awakened could want a city for themselves; Gandara would both fit that bill, and make a natural jumping off point toward matters farther south, i.e. Cantha.

- The Crescent and Joko Loyalists basically just want to preserve as much of the old status quo as they can, with themselves on top of whatever new social order emerges. And they are definitely willing to play dirty to make sure that happens.

- The Sunspears and Order of Shadows will end up forming an Elonian version of the Pact, getting along like sibling rivals as they try to undo Joko's damage throughout the desert lands and contain the above conflict.

 

3. Vabbi, Kourna, and Jahai have much rebuilding to do. Vabbi will likely become a stronghold of the Crescent and Loyalists, since that's pretty much what it is already. The latter two are basically just trying to rise above subsistence level. As I mentioned, hopefully the new trade coming into Amnoon will help with that. Also, I would personally love nothing more than to see Pact airships unloading piles of relief supplies in Kourna and Jahai; I feel that kind of heroic "good guys win" story element is something this game too often lacks.

[Stand The Wall.6987]

democracy will take root, of course.

[Castigator.3470]

> @"Stand The Wall.6987" said:

> democracy will take root, of course.

 

Idealistic as that may be, democracy cannot work in the context of a war torn country, that is actually three states, who in the past were connected as one kingdom and diverged from there. Especially if it is still assaulted by branded creatures.

Not to mention the highly fragmented society, that was ruled by a self proclaimed god king. Democracy takes time and to some degree an already established statehood to develop and works most intuitively when it comes to city states.

It's far more likely that we see Elona develop into a federalized kingdom, where the king himself serves as a uniting figure, mediating between the states.

The king's main objective and most pressing issue would be to defend Elona against the Brand and Kralkatorrik, while defending, or even defining in the first place, the Elonian diplomatic and economical interests in other countries.

That's not an easy job, but the Kingdom of Elona needs a king, unless it wants to dissolve into its component states.

Not to mention that a king can offer something to all factions involved:

• The Mordant Crescent can use a surrogate Joko, someone they can serve and protect. It keeps them busy and prevents them from doing stupid stuff, see Definitely not Joko.

The Sunspears, as well intentioned as they might be, are great protectors and heroes, but I don't see them govern Elona. They need someone to protect them from the paperwork, so they can be in the field, protecting Elonians from crystalline monstrosities.

The old administrative apparatus is still operational. They just need someone to give them purpose. And at the beginning of "A Star to Guide Us" Kossan and his ancestor Koss looked to me like they were up to something. I wouldn't be surprised to see Utumishi sever under a new king.

The Free Awakened have already accepted that Joko is gone, but they are Elonians first, undead second. They wouldn't want the kingdom to balkanize either. But they probably have some self searching to do, so while they might be more open to a radically different Elona, leaving it in the hands of a capable king would give them the opportunity to seek out their families.

Lastly, the Order of Shadows. Since Joko is dead, the Order may need a new purpose. They can become something of a secret service of Elona, provided the king knows what they're up to. A former member might be just the person to accomplish that.

 

As I see it, a working Kingdom of Elona would be ruled over by a king, who is assisted by the Royal Council of Elona, essentially a refined version of the council at Jahai. This central authority is the federal power to the provinces of Vabbi, Istan and Kourna, who each have their local governments. The Free City of Amnoon may become a part of the Kingdom, similar to how the Free State of Saxony is part of the Federal Republic of Germany, or states in the US.

[Stand The Wall.6987]

> @"Castigator.3470" said:

> snips

it was meant to be sarcastic. i'll try to clarify as such in the future.

 

[Jimbru.6014]

It would also be interesting and dramatic if Somebody undertook the task of un-damming the Elon River, allowing the waters to flow once again to Kourna and Jahai.

[Aaron Ansari.1604]

> @"Jimbru.6014" said:

> It would also be interesting and dramatic if Somebody undertook the task of un-damming the Elon River, allowing the waters to flow once again to Kourna and Jahai.

 

That could be... either really great or really terrible, depending on those new crystal walls crisscrossing the old riverbed. If one of those is large enough to divert the river, or block it entirely, we could end up flooding the lower half of Jahai right now.

[Jimbru.6014]

I would assume clearing the riverbed would be part of the process. Between Aurene's breath, Taimi's know-how, Canach's explosives, and Braham's recklessness, I'm sure we can make it happen.