Leaf Fossil Intrigue

[Kruhljak.2705]

Any guesses on this recent trading post curiosity: Someone bought off about 163k leaf fossils, then dropped in a buy order for what I'd guess was the remainder of 2m total. It's at 1.76 million right now after five/six days so I'm just rounding up. This was done on Nov 25. How long does it take to put in over 7000 buy orders by hand? Assuming there was a hand and not something else at work....

 

Seeing as how leaf fossils are of no real use to most players--there's about 7.3m up for sale at the moment--what could be the motivation for this? These rarely have buy orders, and according to graphs there hasn't been any significant activity on the buying side since last Oct 25 when there was another 1.3m units bought up with an additional buy order in place that lasted for about two days.

 

2m fossils at 19c each is...3800 gold or so? That's a lotta dosh for no reason, and there remains the risk of losing about 16% if they had to be merched off if whatever's planned for them doesn't bear out.

 

Weird thing to speculate on. Just found it interesting. Perhaps some rich mogul has some secret nefarious plan for them that doesn't involve reaping profits, however impossible that sounds.

[Veprovina.4876]

That 3800 gold for people who regularly trade outside of the game to avoid the 10k limit is pocket money to them.

But how do you know it's one person?

If it is, maybe he's banking on buying all of them cheap, then as the supply runs out - cornering the market with insane prices.

Idk, you can make viper's with it, so it's not like people don't use those, but they're fairly common even without buying so idk what the game plan is for buying all of them.

[Khisanth.2948]

Since these have a 16c vendor price and if they are bought at 19c that is a risk of 3c per item. With 1.3 items that is a risk of 390g.

 

> @"Veprovina.4876" said:

> That 3800 gold for people who regularly trade outside of the game to avoid the 10k limit is pocket money to them.

> But how do you know it's one person?

> If it is, maybe he's banking on buying all of them cheap, then as the supply runs out - cornering the market with insane prices.

> Idk, you can make viper's with it, so it's not like people don't use those, but they're fairly common even without buying so idk what the game plan is for buying all of them.

 

Doesn't need particularly insane prices. With that volume you get 2,990g profit if it goes to 50c.

 

[Veprovina.4876]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> Since these have a 16c vendor price and if they are bought at 19c that is a risk of 3c per item. With 1.3 items that is a risk of 390g.

>

> > @"Veprovina.4876" said:

> > That 3800 gold for people who regularly trade outside of the game to avoid the 10k limit is pocket money to them.

> > But how do you know it's one person?

> > If it is, maybe he's banking on buying all of them cheap, then as the supply runs out - cornering the market with insane prices.

> > Idk, you can make viper's with it, so it's not like people don't use those, but they're fairly common even without buying so idk what the game plan is for buying all of them.

>

> Doesn't need particularly insane prices. With that volume you get 2,990g profit if it goes to 50c.

>

 

I mean, 50c for a leaf fossil is already insane lol. :tongue:

But whoever is buying those, is likely not interested in "just" 2.990g profit.

Funny how i can say "just 2.990g" when i'll probably never see that amount of gold ever, and some people are throwing 3800g around like it's peanuts.

The economy is so balanced.

[Jilora.9524]

I can only guess but say it became a trade in like gold ore silver ore large claws for factions and immediately jump up to 50c. I can't imagine it will become one and I have sold to vendor every leaf fossil i've gotten ever but who knows

[Khisanth.2948]

> @"Veprovina.4876" said:

> > @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > Since these have a 16c vendor price and if they are bought at 19c that is a risk of 3c per item. With 1.3 items that is a risk of 390g.

> >

> > > @"Veprovina.4876" said:

> > > That 3800 gold for people who regularly trade outside of the game to avoid the 10k limit is pocket money to them.

> > > But how do you know it's one person?

> > > If it is, maybe he's banking on buying all of them cheap, then as the supply runs out - cornering the market with insane prices.

> > > Idk, you can make viper's with it, so it's not like people don't use those, but they're fairly common even without buying so idk what the game plan is for buying all of them.

> >

> > Doesn't need particularly insane prices. With that volume you get 2,990g profit if it goes to 50c.

> >

>

> I mean, 50c for a leaf fossil is already insane lol. :tongue:

> But whoever is buying those, is likely not interested in "just" 2.990g profit.

> Funny how i can say "just 2.990g" when i'll probably never see that amount of gold ever, and some people are throwing 3800g around like it's peanuts.

> The economy is so balanced.

 

Well let see ... if they released a new armor set and each piece requires a stack it will take 3x6x250=4500 x 50c = 22.5g for 3 full sets of skins that isn't insane. A stack of them at a cost of 50c is roughly the same as most components that uses fine crafting materials(somewhere in the neighborhood of 30s requiring 3-5 items)

 

Although if they did release armor sets requiring 250 each per piece then the prices would probably go much higher.

 

 

[Kruhljak.2705]

Interesting. Well, I don't know either. There must be some plan in mind even if the gold is relatively chump change to whoever's doing it.

 

As for how I know it's one person? I don't, but it's either one person or a collective, so for purposes of the question it doesn't really matter.

 

It'll be interesting to see if these leaf fossils suddenly have a new use in an upcoming game update. As I said in the OP, it's a weird item to start throwing money at without some expectations.

 

Get 'em cheap while you still can! (no trampling, please).

 

[Riesty.9075]

well there are a lot of useless items out there

i see no problem there if peopl like me and others buy them

in hopes on price ingreases on some changes

every one is free to waste their gold how they whant

i not did this with leaf fossils but as others pointed out you can always hope for a armor who need a stack of item x each piece

in my opinion nowadays with some junk items even worth way more then 1silver everythig under this with massiv amounts on tp is a shame

not to mention it maybe slows tp as well because the data need for milllions of items who knows

 

but just for you lets do an exammple on the tp

 

first the idear

i suggest every year christmas backery and with chef500 now it totaly happens some new reciepes

it is secret and a suprise and there it is not statetd in the anouncment this weak( update timed for the weak after when pvp seasons ends)

to go on with it a freind of a friends grandma and so on knowss one working at anet and she was asked for some good old fashioned cookie reciepes

she came up with her favourit walnut cookie reciepe and as there is no such a thing yet in game it was one off the view new ones they took and did

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Walnut

 

seond the planing

who needs it what is the plan behind it

with the supply and the item similar in harvesting as cinamon before

(the history showed it took a while since its dry top realeasethe cinamon acc bound condi food brought a solid 4-5silver to cinamon price)

i think we get a account bound ascendet version of a buff found the raiders whant

a new account bound version of the https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Delicious_Rice_Ball numer 1 heal food

 

3combine

so you get your new acc bound WALNUT COOKIES with the heal delicious rice ball stats

the raiders and fraktal players whant it

low player most time get the incredient items by drop so they profit

and targeted price of 4-5silver is not to far fetched for a walnut compared to cinamon

 

 

so after my post i go now a bit late to one of my account and buy about 2000gold worth of walnuts on the the tp after posting this

https://www.gw2bltc.com/en/item/12250-Walnut

 

 

no for real i do this no one can stop me isit realistic absolute not lol

i was all rdy not so fine with chef 500

even if they told us there the market can shake up not so much happened

i like the way how it is impleneted but i missed out stuff and idon t likestuff they did in my opinion

 

for example

why a lot of new items uses https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Slab_of_Poultry_Meat even if it had a soid 4-5s price all rdy

and nearly no new ones with https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Slab_of_Red_Meat and instead they introduced even a new meat https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Cut_of_Quality_Red_Meat

and not even away to increase quality of old one or some stuff????? why

 

another one

the introduced this item https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Jar_of_Orange-Clove_Syrup it is a good ting at first and still is

oranges are like butter and chocolate in centaur and bandit bags that most of time lowplayers get

so if they introduce a meta recipe that whould raiders and fraktal player use and is account bound with slightly better stats even or so

then i could imagin orangen going also 10s but why on earth total ignor https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Jar_of_Orange_Sauce this one

and https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Jar_of_Citrus_Cream_Sauce that noe with barely any use all rdy total worthless on trading post????

did it realy need new one not even using old stuff

 

last one i mentioned chocolate

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Chocolate_Bar

has all rdy a good price at 2-3s and as said with butter and orange coming from low level bags new players can get a view silver there but

if you craft with it is like a dead end on some paths

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/index.php?title=Bowl_of_Chocolate_Cherry_Frosting

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/index.php?title=Bowl_of_Chocolate_Omnomberry_Frosting

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/index.php?title=Bowl_of_Chocolate_Raspberry_Frosting

 

 

well an then therei is millions of supolly items

how about a mushrom salad or so with worthless in bulk used https://wiki.guildwars2.com/index.php?title=Portobello_Mushroom

 

anyway i keep losing the target keep clicking buying 2000g walnuts

with anouncet it lol

have a nice day every one and i gues last words in this post

gues i whent a bit nuts lol

[Zaxares.5419]

It's because you're not thinking like a TP baron. (Not saying I am one. I have neither the gold nor the patience to engage in that kind of daily activity when I could be gaming. But over the years I've spoken to enough people who play the market to understand how and why they're doing it.) Leaf Fossils (and many other mats) are basically sitting at merch value prices on the TP at the moment. This means that ANYTHING that improves their value will result in an instant profit, whether it's a change in the meta, a new use that ANet introduces for them etc. So, what a TP baron will do is simply buy up vast quantities of these materials at rock bottom prices, then simply sit on them and wait. If some new balance patch happens that makes Crusader gear or HoT elite spec runes suddenly become meta, Leaf Fossils might go up to, I dunno, 60 copper? That's still inconsequential for most players, and unlikely to cause any pain for any individual player, but if you're a TP baron who's sitting on 2000 stacks of Leaf Fossils, you've just made bank for what you invested. You can bet that there's lots of people doing the same thing for things like Eyes of Kormir or Congealed Putrescence. The only limiting factor is space, and depending on your willingness to create mules, bank guilds or alt-accounts, you can have a LOT of space indeed.

[Veprovina.4876]

> @"Riesty.9075" said:

> *snip*

 

That was interesting to read, thank you! :smile:

 

> @"Zaxares.5419" said:

> It's because you're not thinking like a TP baron.

 

Yeah, that's true.

Like, i stumbled on some infusion i can make from my materials, that has a sell price of over 1000 gp.

But it costs like 370gp to make. Which *if sold* would net me a profit of about 720gp...

 

But i'm like, what if it doesn't sell? Those can't sell that much, what if it's on TP for ages, then i lost my entire gold on a gamble that i might make more lol. :tongue:

Cause it would literally require me to spend all my gold (or most of it), to make and sell that infusion.

You need some starting capital to "think" like a TP baron too lol, some gold buffer. :tongue:

And i can't sit on an item or wait for it to sell when i just emptied my entire gold reserve. :tongue:

 

Also, what you said about playing is true too, i don't have the patience to scour TP for stuff when i could be playing the game.

I have enough gold for stuff i want and need, the rest is just a bonus. :wink:

[Cuks.8241]

> @"Veprovina.4876" said:

> But whoever is buying those, is likely not interested in "just" 2.990g profit.

> Funny how i can say "just 2.990g" when i'll probably never see that amount of gold ever, and some people are throwing 3800g around like it's peanuts.

 

So here you are very much wrong. 2990 g profit for a 3800g investment is a super huge profit. In a fairly stable economy, such fluctuations in prices are rare.

People that are rich are interested in any profit. There is no "just" x gold profit". You maximise all your gold incomes, trades and crafts.

You don't get rich by putting all your gold in one thing. Hey you might get it once but it's just too risky and you won't get far. You want to disperse investments so you are able to cover for the failed ones. There will always be some failed investments.

[Veprovina.4876]

> @"Cuks.8241" said:

> > @"Veprovina.4876" said:

> > But whoever is buying those, is likely not interested in "just" 2.990g profit.

> > Funny how i can say "just 2.990g" when i'll probably never see that amount of gold ever, and some people are throwing 3800g around like it's peanuts.

>

> So here you are very much wrong. 2990 g profit for a 3800g investment is a super huge profit. In a fairly stable economy, such fluctuations in prices are rare.

> People that are rich are interested in any profit. There is no "just" x gold profit". You maximise all your gold incomes, trades and crafts.

> You don't get rich by putting all your gold in one thing. Hey you might get it once but it's just too risky and you won't get far. You want to disperse investments so you are able to cover for the failed ones. There will always be some failed investments.

 

You took this quote very much out of context.

If you read my entire post, it's not about the profit, it's about how much leaf fossil will cost.

The argument wasn't that the profit would be too little for someone, it was that if leaf fossil was 50c the profit would (jokingly) just be 2990g. The argumet was that leaf fossil likely wouldn't be just 50c, especially if they spike in demand, and that it would jump more, netting the leaf fossil people more gold than "just 2990g".

Whether or not it would doesn't matter really, it's just a possible outcome that might or might not happen.