BLC Drop Rate

[DarcShriek.5829]

Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.

[Obtena.7952]

> @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.

 

... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low.

[Super Hayes.6890]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.

>

> ... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low.

 

This is absolutely true. People would make thier own decision about what amount of keys would gaurantee the drop they want and when RNG decides otherwise they would lose thier minds and demand compensation.

[DarcShriek.5829]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.

>

> ... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low.

 

I disagree, I think the transparency would be useful. It would allow people to generate an expected value of the keys.

[Obtena.7952]

> @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > > @"DarcShriek.5829" said:

> > > Typically, people don't understand how random numbers and percentages work.

> >

> > ... and even if you told them how that math worked ... probably wouldn't get it. That's why the idea of being transparent with the drop rates isn't useful. If anything, people would MISUSE that information to complain they should have gotten something because 'math' or that the rates are too low.

>

> I disagree, I think the transparency would be useful. It would allow people to generate an expected value of the keys.

 

You're going to have to explain how this would work ... the expected value of the keys, in terms of what? Considering the value of the key is based on a random process and the market price for items that may drop from a BLC fluctuates ... how do you think you go about assigning value to a single key that would be meaningful to anyone, EVEN for those people that know how to theoretically calculate it?

 

Again, that's has nothing but misuse written all over it. Sure, for a very select few people, it could be useful ... but in general, not.

[Solvar.7953]

I think the point is that if a full breakdown was given, such that you knew there was a 1% of some item worth 500 gp, 10% chance of item with 50 gp, 5% chance of item worth 20 gold, etc, one could take all those probabilities and say that on average, the stuff you get from a black lion chest is X gold. So if that was less than it cost to buy a key (via gem conversion), one could say one should not buy keys, if it is more, you are in theory making money.

But since a lot of stuff you get may be account bound, you are not really making money - your overall account value may be going up by more than the key cost you, but you can not translate that directly into gold.

Also, other objects (guaranteed skin unlocks) have an imprecise value that varies based on account. On a brand new account that hasn't unlocked anything (why they would buy keys is a different question), since unlocks have a lower value because there are a lot of very common and cheap weapons it may unlock. On an account which has played a lot, the value of that unlock is more.

My personal thought is more information is never a bad thing for the consumer. It may be that users will not complain statistics, but right now, vague definitions of rare, uncommon, etc are not great either.

 

[DarcShriek.5829]

Anything that can be purchased from the gem store or TP has a value that can be determined through the API. If we know the frequency of the items, a decent programmer can extract and calculate the value. Black lion statuettes would cause a slight difficulty, but a standard for determining the value of them could be worked out and followed.

[kharmin.7683]

Just because something has a 1 in 100 chance of dropping does not guarantee that it will drop once in 100 tries. This is what some people don't understand about probability and drop rates.

[Obtena.7952]

> @"Solvar.7953" said:

> I think the point is that if a full breakdown was given, such that you knew there was a 1% of some item worth 500 gp, 10% chance of item with 50 gp, 5% chance of item worth 20 gold, etc, one could take all those probabilities and say that on average, the stuff you get from a black lion chest is X gold. So if that was less than it cost to buy a key (via gem conversion), one could say one should not buy keys, if it is more, you are in theory making money.

 

Yes, you can theoretically calculate payout ... except the drop rates are still random and buying BLC's to flip their items on the TP to make gold isn't a sensible approach because gold can be purchased with gems directly.

[sorudo.9054]

i think about a year ago they changed something with the BLC drop rate, since then it's bin horrible.

[Peter.3901]

I got my vermillion great sword on the free blc, and got the cape + griffon in around 20 keys after.