Black Lion Keys & Scrap Package: The Math

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

For the next four days, Evon & Company are offering the [black Lion Keys & Scrap Package](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Keys_and_Scrap_Package)

* Included in the package: 10 keys & 2 scraps

* Limit: two packages per account (although you can gift those two to other accounts).

* Price ends up as 90 gems/key, which compares to 125/key bought singly, 90/key bought in multiples of 5, or 84/key bought in multiples of 25

* The current drop rate of scraps is ~14%. With 'average' luck, you'd get two scraps from 15 keys. Thus the package has a potential value of 1800-2500 gems, if your primary interest is BL Weapon ticket scraps.

 

In other words, for those who typically buy a few keys using RL cash, this is a really good deal. For those buying with gold converted to gems, the exchange rate has risen only about 5%, so it's still a pretty good deal _if_ you were already planning on buying a few keys using gold.

 

However, this doesn't change the fact that most people won't get anything all that interesting out of only 10 or 20 chests. The primary value of keys is the excitement generated just before you open, when there's that wonderful possibility of something amazing dropping. (Spoiler alert: you won't get the amazing drop.)

 

Or in simplest terms:

* This is a great deal for those who normally buy keys.

* This isn't enough of a deal to convince anyone else to buy keys for the first time.

[Donari.5237]

If they included a golden key, I'd be sold. I've wanted one of those for a while but they've been bundled with too much I don't want. I don't have the resources to keep buying keys until I get the magic glider, which would be perfect for my firebrand, and a guaranteed 4th slot would at least up my odds.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Donari.5237" said:

> If they included a golden key, I'd be sold. I've wanted one of those for a while but they've been bundled with too much I don't want. I don't have the resources to keep buying keys until I get the magic glider, which would be perfect for my firebrand, and a guaranteed 4th slot would at least up my odds.

 

I'd find that more interesting, too. However this (like many gem shop bundles) seems designed mostly for frequent key buyers, not so much for those of us unlikely to become frequent purchasers.

[Lambent.6375]

The small amount of luck I have has rained down on me.

 

I went ahead and bought two packs, and got an Endless Upgrade Extractor Contract.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Lambent.6375" said:

> The small amount of luck I have has rained down on me.

>

> I went ahead and bought two packs, and got an Endless Upgrade Extractor Contract.

 

Ooh! That's awesome. Congratulations.

[Lambent.6375]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Lambent.6375" said:

> > The small amount of luck I have has rained down on me.

> >

> > I went ahead and bought two packs, and got an Endless Upgrade Extractor Contract.

>

> Ooh! That's awesome. Congratulations.

 

Thanks, I wouldn't have logged in to buy them without this thread. ?

[Dawdler.8521]

Black Lion key and scrap package?

 

Is it just me that think Anet saw the thread on the droprate and went "OH %&*€ they noticed, quick quick we got to distract them with something uh... uh... include some scraps with a key package! Phew safe."

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Dawdler.8521" said:

> Black Lion key and scrap package?

>

> Is it just me that think Anet saw the thread on the droprate and went "OH %&*€ they noticed, quick quick we got to distract them with something uh... uh... include some scraps with a key package! Phew safe."

 

Probably not just you, but I'm 90% sure this was planned well in advance. The current chests drop more guaranteed unlocks (ordinary, armor-specific, and weapon-specific are common drops), plenty of BL skins (one uncommon, one rare), and tons of dyes (too many probably, as they are all in 'common' and all worth 5-20g now). In exchange for more skins more often, we get fewer scraps.

 

This offering is great for people who prefer to get more scraps, since it's close to the same amount of scraps at the same price (well if you buy 5 at a time normally, this is also 90 gems/key).

 

It seems much more likely to me that they are experimenting with the overall mix of offerings to find what seems to be more popular.

[Shirlias.8104]

Fortunately it's something limited 2x account.

The good thing in reducing the % of scraps would have been the "new price" of Black Lion Skins, which currently are not really a thing if compared to the keys cost.

[Dawdler.8521]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Dawdler.8521" said:

> > Black Lion key and scrap package?

> >

> > Is it just me that think Anet saw the thread on the droprate and went "OH %&*€ they noticed, quick quick we got to distract them with something uh... uh... include some scraps with a key package! Phew safe."

>

> Probably not just you, but I'm 90% sure this was planned well in advance. The current chests drop more guaranteed unlocks (ordinary, armor-specific, and weapon-specific are common drops), plenty of BL skins (one uncommon, one rare), and tons of dyes (too many probably, as they are all in 'common' and all worth 5-20g now). In exchange for more skins more often, we get fewer scraps.

>

> This offering is great for people who prefer to get more scraps, since it's close to the same amount of scraps at the same price (well if you buy 5 at a time normally, this is also 90 gems/key).

>

> It seems much more likely to me that they are experimenting with the overall mix of offerings to find what seems to be more popular.

Well the offering is "great"... had it been permanent.

 

It pretty much just bring up the scrap rate to previous levels, lol. I did buy 20 keys (half the gems I already had, other half paid for by a precursor drop last week woopwoop). Result? 3 scraps (15% droprate) and thus obviously 7 in total (35% droprate had they all dropped).

[Oglaf.1074]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> For the next four days, Evon & Company are offering the [black Lion Keys & Scrap Package](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Keys_and_Scrap_Package)

> * Included in the package: 10 keys & 2 scraps

> * Limit: two packages per account (although you can gift those two to other accounts).

> * Price ends up as 90 gems/key, which compares to 125/key bought singly, 90/key bought in multiples of 5, or 84/key bought in multiples of 25

> * The current drop rate of scraps is ~14%. With 'average' luck, you'd get two scraps from 15 keys. Thus the package has a potential value of 1800-2500 gems, if your primary interest is BL Weapon ticket scraps.

>

> In other words, for those who typically buy a few keys using RL cash, this is a really good deal. For those buying with gold converted to gems, the exchange rate has risen only about 5%, so it's still a pretty good deal _if_ you were already planning on buying a few keys using gold.

>

> However, this doesn't change the fact that most people won't get anything all that interesting out of only 10 or 20 chests. The primary value of keys is the excitement generated just before you open, when there's that wonderful possibility of something amazing dropping. (Spoiler alert: you won't get the amazing drop.)

>

> Or in simplest terms:

> * This is a great deal for those who normally buy keys.

> * This isn't enough of a deal to convince anyone else to buy keys for the first time.

 

It is loot box gambling which makes it a terrible, terrible deal for everyone involved regardless.

 

/end thread

[Zaklex.6308]

I bought two, and I buy keys in bulk as well...and I don't get a thrill hoping something "rare and valuable" will pop up from one of the chests. I just buy them as one of the ways to support the game which I happen to enjoy, but then again, I would expect myself to be an outlier(not affected by the whole "gambling" thing at all).

[Conncept.7638]

> @"Oglaf.1074" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > For the next four days, Evon & Company are offering the [black Lion Keys & Scrap Package](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Keys_and_Scrap_Package)

> > * Included in the package: 10 keys & 2 scraps

> > * Limit: two packages per account (although you can gift those two to other accounts).

> > * Price ends up as 90 gems/key, which compares to 125/key bought singly, 90/key bought in multiples of 5, or 84/key bought in multiples of 25

> > * The current drop rate of scraps is ~14%. With 'average' luck, you'd get two scraps from 15 keys. Thus the package has a potential value of 1800-2500 gems, if your primary interest is BL Weapon ticket scraps.

> >

> > In other words, for those who typically buy a few keys using RL cash, this is a really good deal. For those buying with gold converted to gems, the exchange rate has risen only about 5%, so it's still a pretty good deal _if_ you were already planning on buying a few keys using gold.

> >

> > However, this doesn't change the fact that most people won't get anything all that interesting out of only 10 or 20 chests. The primary value of keys is the excitement generated just before you open, when there's that wonderful possibility of something amazing dropping. (Spoiler alert: you won't get the amazing drop.)

> >

> > Or in simplest terms:

> > * This is a great deal for those who normally buy keys.

> > * This isn't enough of a deal to convince anyone else to buy keys for the first time.

>

> It is loot box gambling which makes it a terrible, terrible deal for everyone involved regardless.

>

> /end thread

 

Yep, gambling is the greedy and dishonest preying on the ignorant and depraved, no amount fiddling with prices or odds changes that.

[Wolfheart.7483]

.> @"Conncept.7638" said:

> > @"Oglaf.1074" said:

> > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > For the next four days, Evon & Company are offering the [black Lion Keys & Scrap Package](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Keys_and_Scrap_Package)

> > > * Included in the package: 10 keys & 2 scraps

> > > * Limit: two packages per account (although you can gift those two to other accounts).

> > > * Price ends up as 90 gems/key, which compares to 125/key bought singly, 90/key bought in multiples of 5, or 84/key bought in multiples of 25

> > > * The current drop rate of scraps is ~14%. With 'average' luck, you'd get two scraps from 15 keys. Thus the package has a potential value of 1800-2500 gems, if your primary interest is BL Weapon ticket scraps.

> > >

> > > In other words, for those who typically buy a few keys using RL cash, this is a really good deal. For those buying with gold converted to gems, the exchange rate has risen only about 5%, so it's still a pretty good deal _if_ you were already planning on buying a few keys using gold.

> > >

> > > However, this doesn't change the fact that most people won't get anything all that interesting out of only 10 or 20 chests. The primary value of keys is the excitement generated just before you open, when there's that wonderful possibility of something amazing dropping. (Spoiler alert: you won't get the amazing drop.)

> > >

> > > Or in simplest terms:

> > > * This is a great deal for those who normally buy keys.

> > > * This isn't enough of a deal to convince anyone else to buy keys for the first time.

> >

> > It is loot box gambling which makes it a terrible, terrible deal for everyone involved regardless.

> >

> > /end thread

>

> Yep, gambling is the greedy and dishonest preying on the ignorant and depraved, no amount fiddling with prices or odds changes that.

 

It would be dishonest if the buyer didn't know it was gambling, which they do. Greedy is a matter of opinion, not fact. Saying people who buy something that is gambling are ignorant or depraved is also simply an opinion not to mention insulting and completely uncalled for.

 

 

[Deihnyx.6318]

> @"Conncept.7638" said:

> > @"Oglaf.1074" said:

> > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > For the next four days, Evon & Company are offering the [black Lion Keys & Scrap Package](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Keys_and_Scrap_Package)

> > > * Included in the package: 10 keys & 2 scraps

> > > * Limit: two packages per account (although you can gift those two to other accounts).

> > > * Price ends up as 90 gems/key, which compares to 125/key bought singly, 90/key bought in multiples of 5, or 84/key bought in multiples of 25

> > > * The current drop rate of scraps is ~14%. With 'average' luck, you'd get two scraps from 15 keys. Thus the package has a potential value of 1800-2500 gems, if your primary interest is BL Weapon ticket scraps.

> > >

> > > In other words, for those who typically buy a few keys using RL cash, this is a really good deal. For those buying with gold converted to gems, the exchange rate has risen only about 5%, so it's still a pretty good deal _if_ you were already planning on buying a few keys using gold.

> > >

> > > However, this doesn't change the fact that most people won't get anything all that interesting out of only 10 or 20 chests. The primary value of keys is the excitement generated just before you open, when there's that wonderful possibility of something amazing dropping. (Spoiler alert: you won't get the amazing drop.)

> > >

> > > Or in simplest terms:

> > > * This is a great deal for those who normally buy keys.

> > > * This isn't enough of a deal to convince anyone else to buy keys for the first time.

> >

> > It is loot box gambling which makes it a terrible, terrible deal for everyone involved regardless.

> >

> > /end thread

>

> Yep, gambling is the greedy and dishonest preying on the ignorant and depraved, no amount fiddling with prices or odds changes that.

 

2017 has been a year that shifted the responsibility of the consumer around...

2018 will be the year of the newly called "gaming disorder".

 

As a consumer, video game business practices are not even close to being the most dishonest out of everything we consume daily. Remember where you pants are made, how the food you eat is made and what health issues come with it... in a market like that you're constantly incited to push new boundaries to stay out of the water.

 

I find it scary to think that people are less and less willing to admit their part of responsibility in all that. Yes it is some form gambling, but claiming ignorance and dishonesty is simply too easy. They don't hide their intent, and you're not forced to anything.

[Ayakaru.6583]

My roll was pretty bad.

On 20 keys, 4 scraps.. but i got 3 wardrobe unlocks and a weapon unlock so it wasn't a waste.

And a big 25g worth of trophies in the Christmas boxes

[ReaverKane.7598]

> @"Wolfheart.7483" said:

> It would be dishonest if the buyer didn't know it was gambling, which they do. Greedy is a matter of opinion, not fact. Saying people who buy something that is gambling are ignorant or depraved is also simply an opinion not to mention insulting and completely uncalled for.

>

Well, while i think his language was a bit harsh. He's not wrong. It IS greedy, its a easy and cheap way to inflate the price of items.

As far as being dishonest... I don't know. But it is disingenuous, and a bit malicious. It preys on people with addictive personalities. I mean a lot of people don't gamble in casinos and shit because they know they might get taken in by the rush and end up spending their life away. This is similar, but its encapsulated and disguised as a less threatening system, yet there's numerous tales of people who spend thousands and thousands of dollars on micro-transactions and loot crates. Then there's the far worse case of smartphone games. The son of a cousin of mine spent 900€ on crap on a cellphone game because she didn't realize the game had those, and the 6 year old kid obviously doesn't know better. And of course cellphone carriers are happy to just let the money get charged from the phone bill.

There's a huge issue with Loot crates and microtransactions overall. And although Anet isn't by far the worse offender, a line must be drawn before it is crossed.

[IndigoSundown.5419]

> @"Deihnyx.6318" said:

>

> I find it scary to think that people are less and less willing to admit their part of responsibility in all that. Yes it is some form gambling, but claiming ignorance and dishonesty is simply too easy. They don't hide their intent, and you're not forced to anything.

 

Yes, it would be better for people to accept responsibility for their choices. I totally agree. However, that applies to everyone, businesses as well as consumers. So, who is responsible if the gullible spend more than they might want to otherwise on a product designed to entice them to do so? Why, both the consumer, who made the choice, and the business who chose to enable the consumer's choice. It's all too easy to absolve the business of their share of the responsibility.

 

While the business practice of using random reward containers is not dishonest, it us _designed_ to manipulate consumers. Sure, all sales tactics are in some way manipulative, but most sales tactics don't hide the _real_ cost for obtaining the desired item. With that in mind, the only choice a responsible consumer can make with regard to random reward containers is to not buy the means to open them.

[Crossaber.8934]

I have bought 2 of the package, i got roughly 50gold of junk, svanir glove, 1.5 blc ticket, phenix rifle skin, 2 frost skin, a pernment snow truffle node, 2 hairstyle and couple rare dye out of the 20 boxes.

 

It wasn’t so bad actually.

[Drecien.4508]

Bought one set, got glints ice dye or something white and the wild magic glider/backpiece combo. Plus some other junk.