What is it with Black Lion keys?

[Koods.9815]

Heya, I am not sure what happened, but last time when I played this game, like year ago, I remember getting key on like every 2nd or 3rd map. Now I have explored over 12 maps and I swear, I haven't got any! I know keys should be rare, but still.. 12 maps and nothing? Did the drop rate reduced, or.. do you have as bad luck as me? Let me know, Thanks!

[U Pha Mystic.7920]

You where lucky before not lucky now. I have had similar streaks.

[Koods.9815]

Yeah hah, seems like I was unlucky 12 times in a row, I am soo glad I have all those transmutation charges *sarcasm*

[Steve The Cynic.3217]

> @"Koods.9815" said:

> Yeah hah, seems like I was unlucky 12 times in a row, I am soo glad I have all those transmutation charges *sarcasm*

 

Think of the charges as ammunition for Fashion Wars 2... ;)

 

[Koods.9815]

Chest shinies > fashion

 

[Game of Bones.8975]

If you average out all the hits and misses you'll see a pattern across not only your "luck" but everyone else's as well. While you are having a good day, others are having a bad day and vice versa.

[Koods.9815]

Well I'd like to have a good day, who cares about others, haha

[gert.7698]

I was thinking the same. Maybe its just bad luck, but i did world completion with a new char and only got 1 key. Before i used to get 1 key per 4 maps..

[sorudo.9054]

i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

[Donari.5237]

> @"sorudo.9054" said:

> i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

 

You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Koods.9815" said:

> Heya, I am not sure what happened, but last time when I played this game, like year ago, I remember getting key on like every 2nd or 3rd map. Now I have explored over 12 maps and I swear, I haven't got any! I know keys should be rare, but still.. 12 maps and nothing? Did the drop rate reduced, or.. do you have as bad luck as me? Let me know, Thanks!

 

Random behavior always demonstrates streaks, just like luck at cards. With some characters, I've had less than 1 key in 4 maps; with others, I've found 1 key in two maps.

 

To really get a sense of whether the drop rate has changed, we roughly need at least 100-200 map completions from each "era" that we wish to measure. If you only judge by e.g. 12 maps, then getting one more key will be a huge change in the drop rate. Whereas with at least 100 maps, the difference between 20 and 21 keys isn't as important.

 

Another way to look at is: if the true rate is 33% (1 key every three maps), then the chance that you might get only 25 keys in 100 tries (1 key every 4 maps) is ~3%. Given how many of us do map completion, some player is going to say odds that bad often enough that they might post here asking if the drop rate was nerfed.

 

Similarly, there's nearly a 1% chance that someone might do the same 100 maps and end up with 45 keys (not quite 1 key every other map). If I had that sort of luck, I'm not going to ask ANet if they accidentally increased the rate.

[sorudo.9054]

> @"Donari.5237" said:

> > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

>

> You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

 

all of it, only one single drop.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > @"Donari.5237" said:

> > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

> >

> > You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

>

> all of it, only one single drop.

 

You have only gotten one black lion key from map completion? How many open world maps have you completed (except Southsun, which stopped dropping keys years ago).

[Fyrebrand.4859]

I guess there is no way of knowing, but do you think some maps have higher or lower key drop rates (on completion) than others? It would make sense, because some maps are definitely quicker and easier to complete than others. I'd wager Queensdale's chance is pretty nerfed.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

I think I've only acquired, at most, 3 BL Keys in all the maps I've completed. I've always heard the drop rate is 25%, but I don't experience such good fortune; which is fine, as I do have good luck when opening BL Chests, for the most part.

[Endless Soul.5178]

Interesting. I think in my experience it's been about a 50~50% chance between getting a key or a transmutation charge from map completion. As for mob drops, I just got one today, and I'd say it's about my 25th one since I started playing in March 2015.

 

Please note, I have not been keeping a table or anything, so my above estimates are just that; estimates.

[Donari.5237]

> @"Fyrebrand.4859" said:

> I guess there is no way of knowing, but do you think some maps have higher or lower key drop rates (on completion) than others? It would make sense, because some maps are definitely quicker and easier to complete than others. I'd wager Queensdale's chance is pretty nerfed.

 

Interestingly, while bored and waiting on a friend in the last day or two, I took an alt that had Queensdale about 60% done. I completed it on her and got a key! (With nothing at all of note from it, just consumables).

 

I had thought Bloodstone Fen was 100% key drop for a while since my first, I don't know, 7 completions of it were all keys. Thereafter a key from that map has been super rare for me, which is sad as it is one of the fastest non-city maps there is. RNG, it taunts us so.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Endless Soul.5178" said:

> Interesting. I think in my experience it's been about a 50~50% chance between getting a key or a transmutation charge from map completion. As for mob drops, I just got one today, and I'd say it's about my 25th one since I started playing in March 2015.

>

> Please note, I have not been keeping a table or anything, so my above estimates are just that; estimates.

 

Human memory is demonstrably horrible about keeping track of things like this. We remember streaks better than non-streaks. We remember mildly bad streaks better than mildly good ones. We hold grudges (against RNGeus) about horrid luck and forget to thank the dice for extraordinarily good luck. As someone who makes an effort to pay attention to streaks (for a variety of reasons), I'm still bad at keeping track.

 

In short, there's very little chance that any of actually of us are keeping anything close to accurate mental records.

 

****

> @"Fyrebrand.4859" said:

> I guess there is no way of knowing, but do you think some maps have higher or lower key drop rates (on completion) than others? It would make sense, because some maps are definitely quicker and easier to complete than others. I'd wager Queensdale's chance is pretty nerfed.

 

To me, it makes sense that the rates are the same, because it's easier for them to code and balance.

 

Still, as I said above, if you can get results from a bunch of people so we can compare 100-200 completions for _each_ map you want to compare, it's easy enough to check if the differences are likely random or likely non-random (i.e. intended by the devs).

 

For what it's worth (and it's not worth much because it's too little data), I'm 0/5 on Queensdale, but also 0/4 on Auric Basin.

[Drecien.4508]

The map complete key drops do seem to have been nerfed imo. Did several maps and not a key. Usually get at least one in 4-5 maps.

[Vayne.8563]

Cities don't drop keys, nor does South Sun. Every other map has about a 1 in 5 chance of dropping a key. I do a ton of zone complete, and sometimes I go a long time without keys. Then I go and get a lot of keys all at once, sometimes back to back. RNG is RNG.

[sorudo.9054]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > @"Donari.5237" said:

> > > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

> > >

> > > You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

> >

> > all of it, only one single drop.

>

> You have only gotten one black lion key from map completion? How many open world maps have you completed (except Southsun, which stopped dropping keys years ago).

 

enough for 75% completion and the drop was a random one.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > @"Donari.5237" said:

> > > > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > > i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

> > > >

> > > > You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

> > >

> > > all of it, only one single drop.

> >

> > You have only gotten one black lion key from map completion? How many open world maps have you completed (except Southsun, which stopped dropping keys years ago).

>

> enough for 75% completion and the drop was a random one.

 

"Enough for 75% completion" could mean 0 maps completed. Or it could mean 20+ maps.

 

**If** the true drop rate is 20% and **if** you have completed 20 maps, the chance that you got 0 keys from the maps themselves is 0.3%. That is obviously bad luck, but it still means there will be lots of people in the game who experience it (on average, 3 people out of every 1000 who complete 20 maps).

[sorudo.9054]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > > @"Donari.5237" said:

> > > > > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > > > i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

> > > > >

> > > > > You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

> > > >

> > > > all of it, only one single drop.

> > >

> > > You have only gotten one black lion key from map completion? How many open world maps have you completed (except Southsun, which stopped dropping keys years ago).

> >

> > enough for 75% completion and the drop was a random one.

>

> "Enough for 75% completion" could mean 0 maps completed. Or it could mean 20+ maps.

>

> **If** the true drop rate is 20% and **if** you have completed 20 maps, the chance that you got 0 keys from the maps themselves is 0.3%. That is obviously bad luck, but it still means there will be lots of people in the game who experience it (on average, 3 people out of every 1000 who complete 20 maps).

 

even without the map completion, after 6 years you would expect more then 1.

[Klowdy.3126]

> @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > @"Donari.5237" said:

> > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

> >

> > You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

>

> all of it, only one single drop.

 

That is some horrible RNG. I have gotten keys for completing personal story quests several times, on top of map completion occasionally. I would have to say my RNG luck falls in line with exactly what it should be, about 25%.

 

You can try saving a character slot for a farmer. Get to level 10 by completely exploring a starter map (eventually you will remember everything, and it will go quickly) and do the first part of the personal story, then delete, and start over. You will get keys eventually, and stock up on transmutation charges if you are low, though I think you can only get the personal story key once a week.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > > > @"Donari.5237" said:

> > > > > > > @"sorudo.9054" said:

> > > > > > > i play 6 years and only had 1 single key drop, don't call bad luck just yet.

> > > > > >

> > > > > > You mean only one drop from mobs, or only one from completing all the map zones over and over on alts? Because if the latter, you are at the nether end of the bell curve and I sorrow for you. There's always been a solid chance that completing a map (other than cities) would give you a key.

> > > > >

> > > > > all of it, only one single drop.

> > > >

> > > > You have only gotten one black lion key from map completion? How many open world maps have you completed (except Southsun, which stopped dropping keys years ago).

> > >

> > > enough for 75% completion and the drop was a random one.

> >

> > "Enough for 75% completion" could mean 0 maps completed. Or it could mean 20+ maps.

> >

> > **If** the true drop rate is 20% and **if** you have completed 20 maps, the chance that you got 0 keys from the maps themselves is 0.3%. That is obviously bad luck, but it still means there will be lots of people in the game who experience it (on average, 3 people out of every 1000 who complete 20 maps).

>

> even without the map completion, after 6 years you would expect more then 1.

 

While that sounds reasonable, it's not statistically likely for a lot of people. The drop rates for keys in the wild are extraordinarily low, by all accounts, comparable (if not below) that of precursors. (To be fair, we lack more than anecdotal data.)

 

To increase the chance of seeing keys drop, one needs to kill lots and lots and lots and lots of foes (probably more than that). I know loads of people who have played for 6 years who have not killed more than lots of foes. They do stories, they do the occasional meta (many of which do not include many or any loot-bearing foes) and that might seem like tons (what with 1000 jotun kills, e.g.), but it's a drop in the bucket compared to the actual odds.

 

For example, one player found just 14 precursors in opening 900000 pieces of unidentified gear, with higher-than-normal Magic Find. That's just one every 65k _fine_ drops, under ideal conditions. (And most of us aren't killing foes under 800-1000% MF and drops aren't guaranteed to be common or better usually.)

 

I don't mean, @"sorudo.9054" that you've had good luck. Or even to suggest that your luck is other than bad.

The point is that it's much less, less, less likely to see BL keys drop in the wild than most of us realize (even those of us who have enough math background to know better).