[Research] ToT Bags real content table

[hugo.4705]


 

Established after opening several ToT bags per waves: 25 at once, 50 at once, 250 at once, 500 at once, 1000 at once, total: over 100 000. Source used in addition and completed with results:

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Trick-or-Treat_Bag/research

Some items are misplaced and have nothing to belong to a specific rarity category, this table show the real chance for you to get the items.

When around 100%, considered as common. At the opposite super rare correspond to 0 or low chances like 0.001. (0.1%) 0% items are placed with the 0.001 due to the speculation that after opening a very high number (1 000 000) they would appear 5 times more or less.

 

About the drop rates comparing to last year, proportion by category are respected: around 90.5% common, 9% uncommon, 0.5% rare, 0% super rare.

Drops are globally the same, no items got his chance changed compared to 2017.

 

You have better chance to drop exotics/rares from killing enemies than opening bags. Have opened lastly 1000 bags for 0 rare/exotic nor weapons, infusions....

Whereas just 1 day of farming with 300 MF got me 1 BL key, 1x The Cure, 1x Mini Pumpkin Jack, 1x Mini Charles the hellfire skeleton + A ton of bones

 

Disclaimer: This is a research, take the stats and argue about them as you wish. But can help predicting your loots for high numbers of bags (> 1000).

So, keep half of your bags, you can easily sell the other half. Note that magic find seem to increase your number of looted bags too. 65 against 150 with 300 MF for me.

 

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

The idea of rarity in the drop tables is confusing. It is **not** referring to the chance of getting an item nor the amount; it has to do with the "table" that the drop appears in. The way drops work in GW2 is that you aren't rolling the dice just once, you're rolling several times. Think of a bag within a bag within a bag: the first roll determines which bag within the bag you get, and the second roll determines which item within that second bag. Sometimes, that bag contains another bag, so the rolling continues.

 

It's well established that the drop rates within any given category aren't the same. And, to make it more confusing, the amounts that can drop are variable, making it hard to tell what's going on.

 

****

Here's a simple example to illustrate what's going on, using Unidentified Gear (UIG). For common (blue) UIG, there's a chance of getting blue, green, rare, or exotic loot. That's the first roll. The second roll determines which piece of gear you get, out of a desert-inspired subset of potential gear.

 

From the first roll...

* There's ~88% chance of a blue piece of gear

* 11% chance of green

* 1% chance of rare

* Just under 0.1% for an exotic.

 

If you're lucky enough to roll an exotic, then it could be any from a long list of exotics, so you roll again to determine which. It's unclear if there's a third roll (for example, you might roll to determine if you get a named exotics, an unnamed, a crafted, or one from an exotic set _or_ you might roll first to get armor versus weapons _or_ you might roll to see if it's something usable by your profession, or even a combination of all).

 

@"Wanze.8410" has some data suggesting that some exotics drop more commonly than others, which suggests strongly that there is a third (and perhaps a 4th roll).

 

We have data on how Magic Find affects that first roll: it increases the chance of rolling from one of the 'better' tables, although that doesn't guarantee it's better loot. (Some rares are worth more than some exotics, for example.) With ~850% Magic Find, for example, there's almost zero chance of getting blue gear from blue pieces of unidentified gear; masterwork is the lowest tier you get.

 

Or in the simplest terms:

* The first roll (when opening UnID gear) determines gear rarity (this roll is affected by MF)

* A second roll determines what subset of gear (this roll is probably not affected by MF, but data is sparse)

* The (probably) final roll determines which particular item of that subset.

 

 

(Some people more clever than I figured this out early on in PoF to generate a large number of precursors before the market dropped; it was extremely profitable for those traders to buy blue cheap, open with high MF, and sell the exotics.)

 

 

(Previous example hidden to prevent confusion.)

>! ~~To clarify, here's an oversimplified version of the system, based on what we see in BL chests. The BL chests contain 6 "sub bags" — Common, Uncommon, Rare, & Super Rare, as stated in the preview. Additionally, there's a "guaranteed" bag that always contains the same item for everyone. And finally, there's a bonus bag, that isn't really covered by the preview.~~

>!

>! ~~When you use a key, you get four initial rolls:~~

>! * ~~Guaranteed: everyone gets this~~

>! * ~~Two rolls for slots #2, #3, which determines Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Super Rare~~

>! * ~~A fourth roll that decides whether you get a bonus item. (Since that item can be similar to the ones above, it's really challenging to find _any_ data at all on it.)~~

>!

>! ~~Near as I can tell from watching people's videos of opening 100-250 chests at a time, ~~

>! * ~~Common Drop: 90% combined chance~~

>! * ~~Uncommon: 8% (this one has the account bound unlocks plus the soon-to-be-super-cheap BL weapon skins)~~

>! * ~~Rare: 2% (this one has the soon-to-be-merely-inexpensive BL weapon skins)~~

>! * ~~Super Rare: too low to have any data on.~~

>!

>! ~~Or in brief: when you open a BL chest, you have two chances to get better-than-common, but at the end of the day, it's still 10:1 you won't get one.~~

>!

****

This makes it hard to assess what you should expect to see from seeing the preview, even if the panel showed the actual drop rates.

[hugo.4705]

Thanks for your well structured answer ^^ haven't fully understood the concept of rolls before :) I'm curious about how you know literally everything :o

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Are you sure about the contents of the Black Lion Chest?

I thought it worked as such: Each Black Lion Chest contains four items: a seasonal item, at least one Black Lion Statuette, and two common items. In addition there is a chance at an uncommon, rare or super rare item which will appear as an additional fifth drop.

I don't think I've ever received anything but Common (tier) items in the 3rd and 4th slots. The higher-tier items always seem to come from the 5th slot.

[Khisanth.2948]

It also makes the preview categories nearly useless. Most people would probably be better served if there were no category names around to give people incorrect expectations.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:

> Are you sure about the contents of the Black Lion Chest?

> I thought it worked as such: Each Black Lion Chest contains four items: a seasonal item, at least one Black Lion Statuette, and two common items. In addition there is a chance at an uncommon, rare or super rare item which will appear as an additional fifth drop.

> I don't think I've ever received anything but Common (tier) items in the 3rd and 4th slots. The higher-tier items always seem to come from the 5th slot.

 

I could be wrong about BL chests; I'd have to rewatch some of the videos to be sure. But at worst, that just means it's inaccurate for BL chests; the structure of nested rolls is the same for all containers. To avoid confusion, I'll update to use a different example.

 

Still, it works okay to illustrate the sequence of tables. It's not just a single roll determining what you get.

 

 

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> It also makes the preview categories nearly useless. Most people would probably be better served if there were no category names around to give people incorrect expectations.

 

I think it depends on the table and the person. It would probably help to use some more neutral label that has nothing to do with rarity, like maybe Rabbit, Deer, Dolyak, ... Then people would know they have to wait for data before interpreting their chances.

 

 

[hugo.4705]

Kinda a stupid system could have complained with zephyrites boxes too with their 0 chance monocle. I think the sub-titles like rares etc. should be related to the rarity of the items, that way, you can simply tell, "I need a ton of wool... so I need to open that bag!". I feel sad about that vicious circle promising unreachable things... If the drops after a ton of tries, are inferior to 0.001%, the item should not be showed in the container, plus should be removed. I'm not for fake hopes and that system of random rolls for the item is very strange. 1 bag should equal 1 roll. Let's say a 100 faces dice, if 1-60 = common, 61-80 = uncommon, 81-95 = rare, 96-100 = ultra rare, here I see a vicious mechanic like "you failed first attempt? You have more chance to fail the second! Etc etc etc.."

[Mara.6782]

This year Halloween was really bad for rewards for me. Almost 1000 tots and 0 weapon skin. Demon dog and wortless pillow and some material is best i got. Cut preview after rare because rare is what you can get if your lucky. Last year i got many weapon skins so i think they nerfed droprates.

[Dante.1763]

> @"Mara.6782" said:

> This year Halloween was really bad for rewards for me. Almost 1000 tots and 0 weapon skin. Demon dog and wortless pillow and some material is best i got. Cut preview after rare because rare is what you can get if your lucky. Last year i got many weapon skins so i think they nerfed droprates.

 

1000 ToT bags is nothing. ive opened almost 20000, got all the weapon skins(some twice or three times), a few gifts, 9 different infusions(no embers), 5 different refractors, , all but one of the minis, and numerous other things.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Mara.6782" said:

> This year Halloween was really bad for rewards for me. Almost 1000 tots and 0 weapon skin. Demon dog and wortless pillow and some material is best i got. Cut preview after rare because rare is what you can get if your lucky. Last year i got many weapon skins so i think they nerfed droprates.

 

The data shows you were very lucky last year. The drop rates this year are nearly identical; they are just very, very low.

[sostronk.8167]

Only reason I'd want the ToT bags is for the Charged Quartz Crystals. Only gotta open 1000 bags to get 1 :/

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

> @"sostronk.8167" said:

> Only reason I'd want the ToT bags is for the Charged Quartz Crystals. Only gotta open 1000 bags to get 1 :/

 

You're a lot better off mining the Home Instance Quartz node daily if that's your goal. If you have the Krait Obelisk Shard you can even charge it right there when you have 25 quartz.

 

Or just selling the ToT bags, buying Quartz Crystals and charging one per day. The gold you could get for those 1000 bags could probably supply you with quartz enough for whatever you need. (Quick napkin math says it should cover upwards of a stack of Charged Quartz)

[Astralporing.1957]

> @"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:

> Are you sure about the contents of the Black Lion Chest?

> I thought it worked as such: Each Black Lion Chest contains four items: a seasonal item, at least one Black Lion Statuette, and two common items. In addition there is a chance at an uncommon, rare or super rare item which will appear as an additional fifth drop.

> I don't think I've ever received anything but Common (tier) items in the 3rd and 4th slots. The higher-tier items always seem to come from the 5th slot.

Yes, it _is_ possible to get uncommon (or better) items from the 4th slot. It just doesn't happen all that often. 5th slot on the other hand has uncommon as basic rarity, so of course getting higher rarities in it has greater chance.

 

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Really? Such as?

Be aware, things like Guaranteed Wardrobe Unlocks and such are Common rarity.

 

If so, then you should probably edit the Wiki.

[Lord of the Fire.6870]

I don't know last year I got all exotic weapons out of the tot bags . This year 1 exotic + 3 infusions(all the same color) +1 amulet

I'm not sure whats the problem its possible I get less of them but in general I get more then 2x the amount of exotics from random loot then from the bags out of the labyrinth.(if we count infusions exotic)

 

Last year was 7 exotic + 6 amulets from which you can built infusions.

 

Okay the event isn't over but I have the feeling this is less then last year.