Clovers and RNG

[Rauderi.8706]

This probably should have been a 5-year-old furor by now, but with mystic coin prices as they are (significantly down from 1.25g to ~90s, but still) and the other components that go into them . .

*Why is the chance to get clovers less than 30%?*

The Forge is supposed to be _THE way_ to get them. Notwithstanding the pittance that is the lengthy reward tracks or waiting an entire month for *seven*.

 

It doesn't have to be 100%. I'm fine getting the booby prize once in a while. But for kitten's sake, at least make the success rate *reasonable*.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @Rauderi.8706 said:

> This probably should have been a 5-year-old furor by now, but with mystic coin prices as they are (significantly down from 1.25g to ~90s, but still) and the other components that go into them . .

> *Why is the chance to get clovers less than 30%?*

> The Forge is supposed to be _THE way_ to get them. Notwithstanding the pittance that is the lengthy reward tracks or waiting an entire month for *seven*.

>

> It doesn't have to be 100%. I'm fine getting the booby prize once in a while. But for kitten's sake, at least make the success rate *reasonable*.

 

Define "reasonable". If it were 90%, people would be upset that it wasn't 100%. And if it were 100%, people would still be upset over sinks and other inconveniences. Clovers are for legendary gear, which is entirely optional. I don't mind waiting for reward tracks or the Gift of Loyalty, because I'm in no rush and I appreciate the convenience.

 

PS mystic coins might be up, but legendary weapons are largely as cheap (or cheaper) than when coins were cheap.

[Djinn.9245]

> @Rauderi.8706 said:

> This probably should have been a 5-year-old furor by now, but with mystic coin prices as they are (significantly down from 1.25g to ~90s, but still) and the other components that go into them . .

> *Why is the chance to get clovers less than 30%?*

> The Forge is supposed to be _THE way_ to get them. Notwithstanding the pittance that is the lengthy reward tracks or waiting an entire month for *seven*.

>

> It doesn't have to be 100%. I'm fine getting the booby prize once in a while. But for kitten's sake, at least make the success rate *reasonable*.

 

Doing Chuka & Champawat, I got my clovers from the Chests of Loyalty I had been saving since I didn't know what I wanted from them. Now that I know a bit more, I don't know why I would choose anything else from them. But I'm still saving them until I really need something in case things change.

 

I suppose if you use clovers a lot you have to start gambling for them, which I agree is pretty bad. Like Amalgamated Gemstones which are currently the bane of my existence.

[Boysenberry.1869]

I like the drop rate. I end up with tons of T6 mats that I'll need on this or a future legendary.

[Rauderi.8706]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> Define "reasonable".

 

Frequent. As opposed to infrequent. Majority, even.

But if you want a number, sure, 90%.

 

And legendary weapons are cheap now because T5/6 materials are way down. Their overall price has nothing to do with the matter at hand.

 

> @Djinn.9245 said:

> I suppose if you use clovers a lot you have to start gambling for them, which I agree is pretty bad. Like Amalgamated Gemstones which are currently the bane of my existence.

I'm with you there.

That's a relevant argument for a different thread. :anguished:

Long story short, Crystalline Ore RNG needs a revamp too.

 

[Alchofas.8243]

Mystic Clovers are used to craft materials for Legendary Items and Legendary Items are meant to be a long term goal for the players, the only most certain way to get clovers is to complete reward tracks or from login rewards.

 

If you want to rush it, you can also take risks to gamble mystic coins for clovers. You're taking risk gambling so you should also accept the fact that you will lose and lose no matter what. It's a 50 50 chance of whether you get it or you don't. The 30% you mentioned is only the statistics provided by the players for their rolls, it doesn't make the chance becomes 30 70. If I have rolled 10 coins and i got 8 clovers, does that make the roll 80 20? It doesn't. It's based with pure luck, that's why it's a 4 leaves mystic clovers.

 

Mystic Forge is not **THE** way to get them, it's only **A** way to get them.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @Rauderi.8706 said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > Define "reasonable".

>

> Frequent. As opposed to infrequent. Majority, even.

> But if you want a number, sure, 90%.

And then people would complain that 90% was pointless, it should just be guaranteed. There just isn't a magic number.

 

> @Rauderi.8706 said:

> And legendary weapons are cheap now because T5/6 materials are way down. Their overall price has nothing to do with the matter at hand.

No, they've been relatively cheap for a long time before PoF, even as mystic coins started increasing in price. The temporary PoF-launch price drop made them cheaper.

And if "overall price" has nothing to do with the matter at hand, what is the issue?

 

> > @Djinn.9245 said:

> > I suppose if you use clovers a lot you have to start gambling for them, which I agree is pretty bad. Like Amalgamated Gemstones which are currently the bane of my existence.

> I'm with you there.

Amalgamated Gemstones can be bought on the TP; there's no reason to worry about the mystic forge. There's even a 10x recipe, so it doesn't take long to get as many as you need if you want to make your own.

 

> > @Djinn.9245 said:

> > I suppose if you use clovers a lot

This is the main point: it's a choice to make a lot of things that require clovers.

[Coulter.2315]

> @Alchofas.8243 said:

> Mystic Clovers are used to craft materials for Legendary Items and Legendary Items are meant to be a long term goal for the players, the only most certain way to get clovers is to complete reward tracks or from login rewards.

>

> If you want to rush it, you can also take risks to gamble mystic coins for clovers. You're taking risk gambling so you should also accept the fact that you will lose and lose no matter what. It's a 50 50 chance of whether you get it or you don't. The 30% you mentioned is only the statistics provided by the players for their rolls, it doesn't make the chance becomes 30 70. If I have rolled 10 coins and i got 8 clovers, does that make the roll 80 20? It doesn't. It's based with pure luck, that's why it's a 4 leaves mystic clovers.

>

> Mystic Forge is not **THE** way to get them, it's only **A** way to get them.

 

The drop rate is about 30% not 50%, the stats gathered are from a pretty massive sample and will be very close to the true rate.

[BlaqueFyre.5678]

You want guaranteed Clovers for no gold investment? Go Pvp or WvW or EotM, it’s not like Anet didn’t give free options to get Clovers, but if you want them extremely fast, then you pay the gold premium with the Mystic Toilet.

[Rauderi.8706]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> And then people would complain that 90% was pointless, it should just be guaranteed. There just isn't a magic number.

 

Okay, then make it 100%. PROBLEM SOLVED.

Magic.

 

> And if "overall price" has nothing to do with the matter at hand, what is the issue?

The. R. N. G. Itself.

It's abysmal and frustrating, and I'm still very surprised this didn't come up more often.

It's an issue that's amplified by the high prices, because of the way the random rolls rip off the players. Shoveling 10g worth of materials and not getting a single clover is a ripoff. Getting back obsidian shards is just insulting. The chance of getting T6 mats is undervalued by additional RNG and the fact that one can sell coins directly to get those materials.

 

Use the 10-drop? Ha. It has the exact same miserable odds, but wastes 10x the materials. It's considered better to use the 1x draft.

 

> This is the main point: it's a choice to make a lot of things that require clovers.

No. It's a punishment.

 

> @BlaqueFyre.5678 said:

> You want guaranteed Clovers for no gold investment? Go Pvp or WvW or EotM, it’s not like Anet didn’t give free options to get Clovers, but if you want them extremely fast, then you pay the gold premium with the Mystic Toilet.

 

No.

I want my gold investment to be more certain, instead of playing roulette with a cheater.

Bonus history lesson: Before reward tracks, the Forge was the ONLY way to get clovers. This problem has existed for years.

 

[Evil.1580]

According to this research, the Mystic Clovers have more than 30% drop chance, overall. May I see your drop chance research so we can accurately rework and correct the wiki page? Mystic Clover is some kind of luck symbol. This material is supposed to be RNG dependent and giving it the purpose of creating legendary gear I think that 30% is a very reasonable number.

 

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Clover/Drop_rate

[Dreamy Lu.3865]

Don't forget that each of the HoT area specific WvW reward track brings 7 clovers (non repeatable), and after those, many other repeatable reward tracks bring 2. If you do WvW regularly, it goes pretty fast to add + 2 clovers at the top of what we get from chest of loyalty once a month. I believe that PvP is also a good source for them but have no experience with it.

Generally, Legendary is sort of the "ultimate" we can get in this game, so it is normal that it is a long work and expensive. Nobody is forced to it.

 

Regarding the drop rate of the clovers at mystic forge: I used the forge for clovers to speed up 3 of my 5 legendary weapons, and yes, the the drop rate was definitely below 30%. However, what I got instead of the clovers was also expensive material needed for the legendary weapons, like for example 3 x elaborate totems (apart from some very rare low cases). Therefore, it was OK enough for me. I did not feel like I would lose my invest.

 

It is true that there has been a phase recently where the price of the mystic coins had jumped very high at BLT. During this time, it was no more worth using the mystic forge for clovers. But now, they are back to before, as in wandering between 85 and 95 silver.

[Shirlias.8104]

let's see

 

* 7 clovers every 28 days

* 7 clovers through some tracks made the first time

* 2 through many tracks

* 33% through mf ( i don't know if the TS used the 10x recipe or the 1x, but i guess the 10x since the complain )

 

Sometimes the gamble gives you a poor reward which is a total loss ( gossamer, orichalcum, etc... ) compared with the price of the clovers price itself, but it's not a big deal ( using the 1x recipe is the best way to avoid things like these ).

 

At the beginning of the game i remember i tried to gamble in order to get t6 mats, and instead got 10x clovers 8 times out of 10, then i decided to stop the gamble. Months later i crafted my first legendary weapon. It's totally random and you won't get what you are looking for :worried:

 

[Coulter.2315]

> @Rauderi.8706 said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > And then people would complain that 90% was pointless, it should just be guaranteed. There just isn't a magic number.

>

> Okay, then make it 100%. PROBLEM SOLVED.

> Magic.

>

> > And if "overall price" has nothing to do with the matter at hand, what is the issue?

> The. R. N. G. Itself.

> It's abysmal and frustrating, and I'm still very surprised this didn't come up more often.

> It's an issue that's amplified by the high prices, because of the way the random rolls rip off the players. Shoveling 10g worth of materials and not getting a single clover is a ripoff. Getting back obsidian shards is just insulting. The chance of getting T6 mats is undervalued by additional RNG and the fact that one can sell coins directly to get those materials.

>

> Use the 10-drop? Ha. It has the exact same miserable odds, but wastes 10x the materials. It's considered better to use the 1x draft.

>

> > This is the main point: it's a choice to make a lot of things that require clovers.

> No. It's a punishment.

>

> > @BlaqueFyre.5678 said:

> > You want guaranteed Clovers for no gold investment? Go Pvp or WvW or EotM, it’s not like Anet didn’t give free options to get Clovers, but if you want them extremely fast, then you pay the gold premium with the Mystic Toilet.

>

> No.

> I want my gold investment to be more certain, instead of playing roulette with a cheater.

> Bonus history lesson: Before reward tracks, the Forge was the ONLY way to get clovers. This problem has existed for years.

>

 

So you would rather it took 260ish mystic coins (and everything else) and spat out 77 clovers? Well if you do the 1 recipe you'll probably get somewhere close to that, sometimes a bit more sometimes a bit less.

[Rauderi.8706]

> @Coulter.2315 said:

> So you would rather it took 260ish mystic coins (and everything else) and spat out 77 clovers? Well if you do the 1 recipe you'll probably get somewhere close to that, sometimes a bit more sometimes a bit less.

 

Nooononono. Not my suggestion at all. I'd rather put in 77 mystic coins and get 77 clovers.

The point there was the 10x rate is the same as the 1x rate (~30% over 6000 data points), but the 10x gives 10x the results. It's a worse gamble, but faster and more cost per attempt.

 

"Sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less" can also turn into "significantly less," and that's a problem.

[Dante.1763]

> @Rauderi.8706 said:

> > @Coulter.2315 said:

> > So you would rather it took 260ish mystic coins (and everything else) and spat out 77 clovers? Well if you do the 1 recipe you'll probably get somewhere close to that, sometimes a bit more sometimes a bit less.

>

> Nooononono. Not my suggestion at all. I'd rather put in 77 mystic coins and get 77 clovers.

> The point there was the 10x rate is the same as the 1x rate (~30% over 6000 data points), but the 10x gives 10x the results. It's a worse gamble, but faster and more cost per attempt.

>

> "Sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less" can also turn into "significantly less," and that's a problem.

 

Id kinda like the 77 mystic coins = 77 clovers idea actually.

[Oglaf.1074]

> @Boysenberry.1869 said:

> I like the drop rate. I end up with tons of T6 mats that I'll need on this or a future legendary.

 

Except all those times you get like an Ori Ingot or a friggin' Gossamer Bolt... :D

[Rauderi.8706]

> @Oglaf.1074 said:

> > @Boysenberry.1869 said:

> > I like the drop rate. I end up with tons of T6 mats that I'll need on this or a future legendary.

>

> Except all those times you get like an Ori Ingot or a friggin' Gossamer Bolt... :D

 

I got 2 thick leather sections . . :cry:

I have 1200 in my bank. That was very much not helping me with my legendary.

[Faaris.8013]

Two days ago I did the 10x recipe 7 times and got 40 clovers out of it. Then I stopped because that was more luck than I can keep up with. I'll do the rest with the single coin recipe (if I can resist the gamble).

 

At the end of the day, the recipe ArenaNet gives us doesn't really matter. They probably say a legendary has to cost X amount of currency, at a time. Then they go and adjust the costs of items you need to craft the legendary weapon. The prices of items change over time, sometimes heavily. Before PoF, Nevermore cost more than 3k gold, like similar weapons. Now it costs you 2223 gold.

 

What I want to say is that someone decided that clovers are, let's say, 12% of the total costs for a legendary staff. That wouldn't change by changing the recipe. **If the recipe gave twice as many clovers, they would just make you require twice as many for the Mystic Tribute.**

 

I noticed the same misconception when The Shining Blade entered the game and people complained about needing so much wood for it. Sure, they could lower the amount of wood needed for the sword, but would it be easier or cheaper to craft? Certainly not! The Shining Blade costs exactly as much to craft as Nevermore, that's no coincidence. If they lowered the amount of wood, they would just increase the amount of other things you need, mithril or iron or platinum, so you get to the same costs as before. And myself, being at part IV of Nevermore, have spent 75 spiritwood planks already, would have loved if they had required some iron for the staff ^^

[Dante.1763]

> @Faaris.8013 said:

> Two days ago I did the 10x recipe 7 times and got 40 clovers out of it. Then I stopped because that was more luck than I can keep up with. I'll do the rest with the single coin recipe (if I can resist the gamble).

>

> At the end of the day, the recipe ArenaNet gives us doesn't really matter. They probably say a legendary has to cost X amount of currency, at a time. Then they go and adjust the costs of items you need to craft the legendary weapon. The prices of items change over time, sometimes heavily. Before PoF, Nevermore cost more than 3k gold, like similar weapons. Now it costs you 2223 gold.

>

> What I want to say is that someone decided that clovers are, let's say, 12% of the total costs for a legendary staff. That wouldn't change by changing the recipe. **If the recipe gave twice as many clovers, they would just make you require twice as many for the Mystic Tribute.**

>

> I noticed the same misconception when The Shining Blade entered the game and people complained about needing so much wood for it. Sure, they could lower the amount of wood needed for the sword, but would it be easier or cheaper to craft? Certainly not! The Shining Blade costs exactly as much to craft as Nevermore, that's no coincidence. If they lowered the amount of wood, they would just increase the amount of other things you need, mithril or iron or platinum, so you get to the same costs as before. And myself, being at part IV of Nevermore, have spent 75 spiritwood planks already, would have loved if they had required some iron for the staff ^^

 

Actually costs less now because of the massive price drop of mithril and elder wood.

[Rauderi.8706]

> @Faaris.8013 said:

> Two days ago I did the 10x recipe 7 times and got 40 clovers out of it. Then I stopped because that was more luck than I can keep up with. I'll do the rest with the single coin recipe (if I can resist the gamble).

 

Heartfelt congrats! :)

 

> At the end of the day, the recipe ArenaNet gives us doesn't really matter. They probably say a legendary has to cost X amount of currency, at a time. Then they go and adjust the costs of items you need to craft the legendary weapon. The prices of items change over time, sometimes heavily. Before PoF, Nevermore cost more than 3k gold, like similar weapons. Now it costs you 2223 gold.

>

> What I want to say is that someone decided that clovers are, let's say, 12% of the total costs for a legendary staff. That wouldn't change by changing the recipe. **If the recipe gave twice as many clovers, they would just make you require twice as many for the Mystic Tribute.**

 

Definitely can't say what goes into the decision, and I'll bet it's fairly multi-faceted. Anticipated cost, time to achieve, market price of materials, etc. The Forge recipe was done when M.Coins were pretty worthless. The major block would have been Oby Shards (mostly Karma sink items at the time), and Ecto (the benchmark Guild Wars 2 currency).

But even history aside, 30% on a "crafted" item is horrible.

 

> I noticed the same misconception when The Shining Blade entered the game and people complained about needing so much wood for it. Sure, they could lower the amount of wood needed for the sword, but would it be easier or cheaper to craft? Certainly not! The Shining Blade costs exactly as much to craft as Nevermore, that's no coincidence. If they lowered the amount of wood, they would just increase the amount of other things you need, mithril or iron or platinum, so you get to the same costs as before. And myself, being at part IV of Nevermore, have spent 75 spiritwood planks already, would have loved if they had required some iron for the staff ^^

 

An obvious difference between clovers and their components versus the necessary wood grind. The wood can come from just about anywhere: salvage, active farming, buying piecemeal from the trading post. The entire economy and community is a part of it.

When you put the components together for Spiritwood, you get _Spiritwood_. There isn't some majority chance that crafting Spiritwood yields 2-4 elder wood logs.

 

But, if we did use that parallel, **why not make clovers tradeable?**

[Dawdler.8521]

> @Rauderi.8706 said:

> But, if we did use that parallel, **why not make clovers tradeable?**

Thats my complaint as well. Every time I clean out my bank its like "wtf am I supposed to do with hundreds of clovers?!". I would like to sell that worthless crap I got for free from WvW/PvP but nope, not allowed.

[Shirlias.8104]

then all items should be tradeable.

 

* Tokens

* Obsidian Shards

* > @Dawdler.8521 said:

> > @Rauderi.8706 said:

> > But, if we did use that parallel, **why not make clovers tradeable?**

> Thats my complaint as well. Every time I clean out my bank its like "kitten am I supposed to do with hundreds of clovers?!". I would like to sell that worthless crap I got for free from WvW/PvP but nope, not allowed.

 

Take a precursor and sell the t1 leggies ( which just need to be crafted ).

If you really have tons of mystic clover you could get free cash ( if you have MC you have also obsidian. Then you need just tokens from the specific dungeon and stuff you can buy from ah. you could make aroung 500/600g with very low effort ).

[mtpelion.4562]

> @Dante.1763 said:

> > @Rauderi.8706 said:

> > > @Coulter.2315 said:

> > > So you would rather it took 260ish mystic coins (and everything else) and spat out 77 clovers? Well if you do the 1 recipe you'll probably get somewhere close to that, sometimes a bit more sometimes a bit less.

> >

> > Nooononono. Not my suggestion at all. I'd rather put in 77 mystic coins and get 77 clovers.

> > The point there was the 10x rate is the same as the 1x rate (~30% over 6000 data points), but the 10x gives 10x the results. It's a worse gamble, but faster and more cost per attempt.

> >

> > "Sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less" can also turn into "significantly less," and that's a problem.

>

> Id kinda like the 77 mystic coins = 77 clovers idea actually.

 

Just wanted to weigh in and point out that if the recipe was changed to always give a Clover, then it would need to take 3 or 4 Mystic Coins to keep the cost about the same, so it would wind up being 231 or 308 (and my bet would be on the 308) Mystic Coins.

[Rauderi.8706]

> @Dawdler.8521 said:

> > @Rauderi.8706 said:

> > But, if we did use that parallel, **why not make clovers tradeable?**

> That's my complaint as well. Every time I clean out my bank its like "kitten am I supposed to do with hundreds of clovers?!". I would like to sell that worthless crap I got for free from WvW/PvP but nope, not allowed.

 

I would totally buy them from you right now. o_O

 

> @Coulter.2315 said:

> Oh so you're just begging for a 70% reduction in price, you're not upset about rng at all

 

False. I'm requesting that the RNG be more favorable to the _players_ and not the ripoff material sink.

Kindly keep the forums kindly, by the way.

 

> @mtpelion.4562 said:

> Just wanted to weigh in and point out that if the recipe was changed to always give a Clover, then it would need to take 3 or 4 Mystic Coins to keep the cost about the same, so it would wind up being 231 or 308 (and my bet would be on the 308) Mystic Coins.

 

Based on the actual success rate (~30%), probably 256. Or shorten it to 250, which is a clean stack.

The price would suuuck, but I'd go for that.