BL Keys + Zone Completion

[DeanBB.4268]

I have an old character that was sitting at 53% world completion, so decided to finish that off so I could make a couple more legendaries. Is it just extreme luck for me that since the weekend I've gotten Keys for 6 out of 7 maps completed? Did Anet bump up the rewards? I know 7 isn't a big sample, but I've never had keys drop like this before.

[Turkeyspit.3965]

> @"DeanBB.4268" said:

> I have an old character that was sitting at 53% world completion, so decided to finish that off so I could make a couple more legendaries. Is it just extreme luck for me that since the weekend I've gotten Keys for 6 out of 7 maps completed? Did Anet bump up the rewards? I know 7 isn't a big sample, but I've never had keys drop like this before.

 

I believe the drop rate is 20% for a BL key, for any map outside a capitol city (where it's 100% chance for transmutation charge).

 

I've gone 7 maps in a row without a key, and I've done 4 maps in a row with a key each time. RNG is RNG.

[Cragga the Eighty Third.60]

Yep, pure luck. Congrats on a string of jackpots! Hope your good luck extends to what you get from the chests.

[Strider Pj.2193]

> @"DeanBB.4268" said:

> I have an old character that was sitting at 53% world completion, so decided to finish that off so I could make a couple more legendaries. Is it just extreme luck for me that since the weekend I've gotten Keys for 6 out of 7 maps completed? Did Anet bump up the rewards? I know 7 isn't a big sample, but I've never had keys drop like this before.

 

Yeah, that rng can be feast or famine.. forging for ectos I got 80 clovers with 120 crystals... AND got back mystic coins as one of the non clover rolls..

 

Would have kept going but didn’t have enough crystals....

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

This can be easily explained as simply very good luck.

 

My rate of keys:maps is ~33% overall (from over 300 maps completed) and 29.4% for core Tyria alone. Data on the wiki from over 600 completions shows 24% resulting in keys. And finally, it's commonly claimed that the rate is 20%, without any sources that I've been able to track down. If any of those are the 'true' drop rates of keys, then the chance of getting 6 or 7 keys from 7 completed maps are as follows:

* 20%: [4 people out of 10 000](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=20%25+chance+of+success,+7+trials,+more+than+5+successes)

* 24%: [1 in a thousand](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=20%25+chance+of+success,+7+trials,+more+than+5+successes)

* 29.4%: [nearly 4 in a thousand](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=29.4%25+chance+of+success,+7+trials,+more+than+5+successes)

* 33%: [over 6 in a thousand](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=33%25+chance+of+success,+7+trials,+more+than+5+successes)

 

So 6 keys in 7 maps is a good streak, a very good streak. It's still not that surprising.

[Etria.3642]

I finished a map completion from 16% to done and got a whopping 1 key. Definitely not nerfed but the character before that was closer to one every three. They probably even out.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Etria.3642" said:

> I finished a map completion from 16% to done and got a whopping 1 key. Definitely not nerfed but the character before that was closer to one every three. They probably even out.

 

You're claiming that you go a single key from 25 maps? From 23 maps?

* : [if the true rate is 20%, then the chance of getting a single key from 20 maps is nearly 7%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=20%25+chance+of+success,+20+trials,+less+than+2+successes)

* [if the true rate is 30%, then the chance of getting a single key from 25 maps is about 0.16%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=30%25+chance+of+success,+25+trials,+less+than+2+successes)

 

The first scenario is unlucky, but not even very unlucky. The second is very unlucky, but not at all unlikely.

[Etria.3642]

Yup. Did the completion with my daughter and I admit, toward the end when she'd get another key and I wouldn't I was secretly glad that she didn't get anything good. I know, I know, terribly petty.

 

And I suppose if she HAD gotten something good I'd be happy for her the next DAY but right that moment I was salty.

 

Edit: Oh, and it would have been probably 23 maps? I know I already had done queensdale and kessex falls. Got a key from QD.

[Turkeyspit.3965]

> @"Etria.3642" said:

> Yup. Did the completion with my daughter and I admit, toward the end when she'd get another key and I wouldn't I was secretly glad that she didn't get anything good. I know, I know, terribly petty.

>

> And I suppose if she HAD gotten something good I'd be happy for her the next DAY but right that moment I was salty.

>

> Edit: Oh, and it would have been probably 23 maps? I know I already had done queensdale and kessex falls. Got a key from QD.

 

Meh, just think of all the disappointment you saved yourself by not having to use those BL keys you didn't get to open chests and get jank.

 

At least, that's what I keep telling myself...

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> > @"Etria.3642" said:

> > Yup. Did the completion with my daughter and I admit, toward the end when she'd get another key and I wouldn't I was secretly glad that she didn't get anything good. I know, I know, terribly petty.

> >

> > And I suppose if she HAD gotten something good I'd be happy for her the next DAY but right that moment I was salty.

> >

> > Edit: Oh, and it would have been probably 23 maps? I know I already had done queensdale and kessex falls. Got a key from QD.

>

> Meh, just think of all the disappointment you saved yourself by not having to use those BL keys you didn't get to open chests and get jank.

>

> At least, that's what I keep telling myself...

 

Yes, those grapes were definitely sour. Sure glad I couldn't reach them.

[Cragga the Eighty Third.60]

> @"Etria.3642" said:

> Yup. Did the completion with my daughter and I admit, toward the end when she'd get another key and I wouldn't I was secretly glad that she didn't get anything good. I know, I know, terribly petty.

>

> And I suppose if she HAD gotten something good I'd be happy for her the next DAY but right that moment I was salty.

>

> Edit: Oh, and it would have been probably 23 maps? I know I already had done queensdale and kessex falls. Got a key from QD.

 

Sounds just like what happens when you take a kid fishing. =)

[Turkeyspit.3965]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> > > @"Etria.3642" said:

> > > Yup. Did the completion with my daughter and I admit, toward the end when she'd get another key and I wouldn't I was secretly glad that she didn't get anything good. I know, I know, terribly petty.

> > >

> > > And I suppose if she HAD gotten something good I'd be happy for her the next DAY but right that moment I was salty.

> > >

> > > Edit: Oh, and it would have been probably 23 maps? I know I already had done queensdale and kessex falls. Got a key from QD.

> >

> > Meh, just think of all the disappointment you saved yourself by not having to use those BL keys you didn't get to open chests and get jank.

> >

> > At least, that's what I keep telling myself...

>

> Yes, those grapes were definitely sour. Sure glad I couldn't reach them.

 

Anecdote Friday: completed a map before leaving for work this morning, and the BL Key I earned resulted in 2 Heavy Crafting bags and 1 common dye I could buy off the TP for 5cp or something. Now I had fun completing the map, got a bunch of lower tier materials like butter, iron, etc that are valuable, and the key was free, so I'm only marginally disappointed. But had I spent gold/gems to get that result? Yeah, that's why I don't buy keys lol.

[kharmin.7683]

What if they decided to no longer allow free keys? Would they then be more encouraged to tweak the RNG of the drops because people are now paying for the keys?

[DeanBB.4268]

Except you can still do the gold > gems route. They would have to change that, too.

[Kalendraf.9521]

Getting 6 out of 7 is crazy good luck! I once had a terrible streak no keys in well over 20 non-city map completions. Based on the rate at which I receive them, I'd estimate I usually get them somewhere between 1 in 20 to 1 in 10 map completions, so somewhere between 5% and 10% chance per non-city map completion. Supposedly it's higher than that, but for whatever reason, they don't drop very often on my account.

[Kalendraf.9521]

> @"Etria.3642" said:

> I finished a map completion from 16% to done and got a whopping 1 key. Definitely not nerfed but the character before that was closer to one every three. They probably even out.

I experienced something very similar. My first character was probably getting about 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. But then when I did map completion with 7 more characters, the rate was closer to 1 in 10 or 1 in 20. I think my record was 24 maps in a row without a key. From what I've observed, it seems like the first character to complete a map has a better chance to get a key, or maybe after you get world completion on a toon, it causes the key drop rate from map completions to drop off massively for all the other characters on your account. Or maybe my account is just terribly unlucky or bugged somehow.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > @"Etria.3642" said:

> > I finished a map completion from 16% to done and got a whopping 1 key. Definitely not nerfed but the character before that was closer to one every three. They probably even out.

> I experienced something very similar. My first character was probably getting about 1 in 3 to 1 in 4. But then when I did map completion with 7 more characters, the rate was closer to 1 in 10 or 1 in 20. I think my record was 24 maps in a row without a key. From what I've observed, it seems like the first character to complete a map has a better chance to get a key, or maybe after you get world completion on a toon, it causes the key drop rate from map completions to drop off massively for all the other characters on your account.

 

One person's observations aren't sufficient in establishing a pattern for the game. It's fair to say that _your_ first character got more keys; it's not statistically accurate to say that's even likely to be true of anyone else.

 

> Or maybe my account is just terribly unlucky or bugged somehow.

Neither is that statistically accurate.

 

Leaving aside the inherent issues with human memory (as in "my first character...**probably**" and "I think my record was"), there's no evidence that there's anything that makes an account lucky or that there are systemic or fundamental problems with drop rates for particular accounts. There's no player data that remotely comes close to validating the theory and ANet says that their data rules out the possibility completely.

[kharmin.7683]

> @"DeanBB.4268" said:

> Except you can still do the gold > gems route. They would have to change that, too.

 

I wouldn't think so? Those gems were purchased by someone for real cash, so they wouldn't really be losing out. If keys were no longer free, and many more players were converting gold > gems, then the price would increase due to supply/demand. It might make it more reasonable to simply buy the gems to get keys, which might be what Anet would like to happen anyway?

 

I'm no economist -- just tossing out speculation should something like this actually be put into place.

[Kalendraf.9521]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> Leaving aside the inherent issues with **human memory**

Except in this case, I was actually tracking them on a sheet, and have continued to track them since they seemed so different from what the wiki reports. I found the entry for it, and I actually had 25 map completions without a black lion key at one point before finally getting one on the 26th map. These were core tyria maps being done with alts after I had done world completion on another toon. I have had at least two other double-digit streaks without keys (17 and 11). Since I started tracking it, my numbers have been vastly below what the wiki suggests I should be seeing. In a span of 61 core tyria non-city maps, I got 4 keys total which is a paltry 6.6%.

 

By comparison, the first character I did map completion with never had a streak beyond 6 maps without a key, and in some cases they got keys on back-to-back maps. Typically it was 2 or 3 maps without a key, and then one with a key, which would be roughly 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, and somewhere between 33% to 25%.

 

Also, the rate on LS maps seems different. On the LS maps, my key rate is ~22%, and it doesn't seem to matter if I do them with alts.

 

Obviously, these are small samples, but I have talked to other players in my guild and some friends that play, and they've experienced similar behavior where their rate of obtain BLKs from map completion was significantly higher before they got world completion, but afterward the rate on core tyria maps dropped off with alts. One person seeing something can be a statistical anomaly. When multiple people start observing the same behavior, it's less likely to be a mere coincidence. It's plausible that the numbers reported on the wiki are heavily biased toward first time map completers or more recent LS maps. There could be a function that nerfs key drops in core tyria maps for players who have map completion. For the key drop rate measurement, it would be helpful if we knew whether those reported drop rates were pre or post world completion, and whether it was a core tyria map or an LS map since they might use a different formula. Even better would be details for which maps were completed to see if there are differences based on map levels, etc. Lumping all the key drop data together into a broad key per map rate masks any differences that might exist.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

I don't get BL Keys from map completion all that often. I got 0 (zero) from my first World Map completion. I've gotten a few from subsequent map completions. I've gotten more in this last year than all the other years combined.

Seems different for different players. /shrug

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

We don't have enough data to rule in or out theories with any nuance. ANet claims there's no diminishing returns (on this) and they have loads of data. In the absence of our own data, we have to reduce "trust but verify" to "trust... and hope enough people collect reliable data."

 

Accordingly, I don't think it's reasonable to say anything more than "the wiki's data of over 600 entries shows a 24% drop rate of keys."

 

****

> @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > Leaving aside the inherent issues with **human memory**

> Except in this case, I was actually tracking them on a sheet,

I apologize. I was going by your phrasing, which made it seem as if you were relying on the brain to keep track.

 

(As an aside to illustrate how poor memory is, part of my old job required helping colleagues to log the time spent on different projects, for billing purposes. Not a single one of our talented staff could remember correctly how they allocated their time during the hour that just passed, unless they made a note as they went... and of course, no halfway productive person wants to bother with that.)

 

> In a span of 61 core tyria non-city maps, I got 4 keys total

If the true rates are as estimated earlier in the thread, here are the odds of your getting 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 keys total would be

* [24% chance of a key: 0.35%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=24%25+chance+of+success,+61+trials,+less+than+5+successes)

* [33% chance of a key: less than one chance in a million](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=33%25+chance+of+success,+61+trials,+less+than+5+successes)

 

In other words, at best, really bad luck. At worst... geometrically bad; improbable but possible that _someone_ playing has luck that awful.

 

> By comparison, the first character I did map completion with never had a streak beyond 6 maps without a key, and in some cases they got keys on back-to-back maps. Typically it was 2 or 3 maps without a key, and then one with a key, which would be roughly 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, and somewhere between 33% to 25%.

It's unfortunate we don't have this sort of detail from everyone concerned with the drop rates.

 

> Also, the rate on LS maps seems different. On the LS maps, my key rate is ~22%, and it doesn't seem to matter if I do them with alts.

It would be very, very surprising if you got comparable rates from both sets of maps or on main and alts. If fourteen people flipped a coin 25 times, I'd want to take a look at the coin if each came up with heads 12 or 13 times, but never 4 or 20 times.

 

Of the five players submitted over 50 map entries for the wiki's data, the drop rate ranges from 12% to 35%.

 

>

> Obviously, these are small samples,

Negligibly small, yeah.

 

> I have talked to other players in my guild and some friends that play, and they've experienced similar behavior where their rate of obtain BLKs from map completion was significantly higher before they got world completion,

That's an example of confirmation bias. It doesn't mean the theory is incorrect. It just means that it's not a random sample of people; it's more likely that people remember bad streaks and especially if they perceive luck to be getting worse.

 

> One person seeing something can be a statistical anomaly. When multiple people start observing the same behavior, it's less likely to be a mere coincidence.

Except we have a tiny handful of people providing any statistically useful observations.

 

> It's plausible that the numbers reported on the wiki are heavily biased toward first time map completers or more recent LS maps.

It's also plausible that the numbers reported are heavily biased towards those who complete multiple world completions (they are more likely to want to know) or people who just complete the easier maps (my own data is heavily weighted in that direction).

 

> Lumping all the key drop data together into a broad key per map rate masks any differences that might exist.

To be fair, the data we have might not be all that reliable. It's from a total of 25 players. Over half submitted more than a dozen entries. If any of them were poor data trackers, that undermines the results a lot.

 

I notice, for example, there are only 27 completions next to your name (with a single key, as you mentioned above). If you, as someone keeping track, left off over half your data, imagine what someone who isn't as meticulous might have done.

 

 

[Ol Nik.2518]

@"Illconceived Was Na.9781"

You are talking about mathematical expectations. However, considering that 1) rolls for keys are independent and 2) sample sizes are statistically small, it’s quite normal to have ‘long’ periods of no keys.

 

 

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

I once managed to get 8 keys in a row when I was doing S3/PoF/S4 mapping on alts, then got a string of ~5 t. charges in a row. So yeah, not improbable but pretty lucky.

 

I'd be most inclined to trust the wiki's data so far, and say it's about 25% chance to get a BLKey from mapping. It's possible that higher level maps have a slightly higher chance to drop though (since afaik, nobody's been counting the level of zones and what they drop, just how many zones, aside from cities), but that's really just pure hypothesizing there. But if that does hold some weight (and would explain @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" 's statements of seeing people say 20, 25, and 30% chances) if you did high level maps like me, then multiple keys in a row would be a lot more likely to occur.

[HazyDaisy.4107]

Prior to the release of Ep 5 I picked up a few year 1 characters that had been sitting at 60/70/80%.

 

It seemed I had better luck at keys if I didn't go for 100% in one day, on 1 particular character I had 5 maps to finish and I did get a key for each map, but I had spread the completion across a week.

[Tiviana.2650]

The only keys i have gotten are the ones you get for leveling and doing the ps. Meanwhile i have a stack of BLC's in the bank lol