What city will be attacked first?

[Torolan.5816]

Don´t underestimate secret services and their abilities to infiltrate the highest of offices. The Guillaime affair caused Willy Brandt to resign from the post of German chancellor some decades ago because Günther Guillaime who was a trusted advisor of the chancellor was a spy from the DDR. Motives for treason can be very simple or just of an ideologic nature. I am not exactly a fan of Joko but the placing of a trustworthy spy in the highest echelons of any core Tyria organization sounds absolutely possible for me and something I would expect him to do.

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

There's two major differences between that situation and Joko's though. First being the whole level of communication technology - the only way to communicate with Elona from Tyria prior to Path of Fire is by traditional mail carrier (be they birds, people, or hell a message in a bottle). The second is the means of travel between Tyria and Elona.

 

Getting spies high up in Tyrian society is pretty obviously easy if you're well versed enough - White Mantle and Order of Whispers both did this on pretty large scales.

 

But even if Joko's people are well versed enough, there's the whole "only way to communicate is to travel on foot across a desert blocked off by one or two Elder Dragons depending on timeframe, and the few inhabitants of said desert (Amnoon and nomads) are non-too-fond of Joko".

[videoboy.4162]

Yeah, that was a part of why I came up with my theory. Joko is just in an awkward position where traditional spying/infiltration methods would be difficult to accomplish. I doubt my theory is right either, but it was the simplest solution that I could think of. LOL

[arenta.2953]

> @"Arden.7480" said:

> I don't mean the small attack like some portals appear and 5-10 Awakened appear and do nothing dangerous, but I mean a massive attack on one of Tyrian cities.

>

> We heard Rox saying that the portals started appearing in Hoelbrak.

>

> I think Joko will not be able to attack all the cities at once and successfully claim them.

>

> So what city is his major target?

>

> **The Grove**- I think it's unlikely. I wonder: what if Sylvari are immune to be Awakened?- as far I didn't see any Awakened Sylvari, also I didn't see any awakened charr etc, but we know Human and Asura can be Awakened. It's just 'what if', but that would be very interesting.

> **Black Citadel**- it's likely, because charr are the military race, and taking control over so many weapons' ideas and tactics would be disasterous for us.

> **Hoelbrak**- also likely, but I think this city is not Joko's target, if we look at Asura or Charr secrets etc, Norn have less to give.

> **Rata Sum**- very, very likely. If Joko takes Rata Sum, then he has the open way to Rata Novus, and we know how many secrets are there.

> **Lion's Arch**- unlikely, this city is very well defended, also a lot of free spaces are good for us, because we can easily kill the enemies, and a lot of cannons etc around the city will just shank every enemy. If other cities fall, LA will stand still.

> **Divinity's Reach**- with the huge powers of Jennah, its very unlikely this city will fall. She and her army is very good, and they don't kneel before any enemy. Also we got the battle for Lake Doric/Divinity's Reach few months ago, and I thinjk it's not Joko's major target.

>

>

> I think Rata Sum and Black Citadel may be Joko's 1st, major targets to start his influence over Tyria.

>

>

>

 

it would be interesting

grove: i agree with ya that its unlikely

 

if they go for the black citadel though...oh god its going to be a SLAUGHTER. Charr's version of Christmas.

 

as for if the charr would win. no idea, but they would put up one hell of a fight.

 

Hoelbrak: na...this city is being reserved for when braham pisses off jormag and faces the consequences of being an emo know it all as he watches his mindless headfirst charge costing the people he thinks he's fighting for their city.

 

rata sum: it seems likely, as inquest tech, sure to be a few portals. and asura wouldn't put up much of a fight like divity's reach or the black citadel.

 

however, asura seem to love making their labs away from rata sum, so taking the city would likely net Joko minimal assets. as he'd have to push out into tyria ot start finding all the individual labs.

 

divinity's reach: it would be epic to see this go through an actual siege. like it was made for.

and Joko being human once, would have a bit of irony to it. plus divinity's reach has the military to make for a good fight, without the utter nightmare the charr would make it.

 

plus the city is large enough.....but the advantage? not much outside of just more....human zombies....

 

 

 

 

so i think its probably going to be Joko going for Ascalon, not realizing the charr have set up base there. Joko being caught a bit off guard at the change in its inhabitants. but continuing the assault. and seeing the black citadel truely at war (and see why the iron legion are so proud of it)

[Arden.7480]

It's possible that Divinity's Reach may be attacked by Joko, but for another reason, not because he was once a human or anything like this, but Human's faith is now weak- Gods left us, Balthazar wanted to act on his own but at the terrible cost- destroying Tyria.

 

Joko may use this, as White Mantle wanted to- especially Caudecus. Make their weakness (the crisis) his strenght, control them as he did to Amala, as I said Jennah is very powerful, but Amala was also maybe equally powerful (I say was, because the real Amala is gone). What if Jennah will obey Joko? What if he wants Human to believe in him?

 

If he wants to do so, he will be heck amazing strategist.

[Justine.6351]

If he is smart he will attack kryta first so he can get more plow horses.

[Torolan.5816]

> @"Konig Des Todes.2086" said:

> There's two major differences between that situation and Joko's though. First being the whole level of communication technology - the only way to communicate with Elona from Tyria prior to Path of Fire is by traditional mail carrier (be they birds, people, or hell a message in a bottle). The second is the means of travel between Tyria and Elona.

>

> Getting spies high up in Tyrian society is pretty obviously easy if you're well versed enough - White Mantle and Order of Whispers both did this on pretty large scales.

>

> But even if Joko's people are well versed enough, there's the whole "only way to communicate is to travel on foot across a desert blocked off by one or two Elder Dragons depending on timeframe, and the few inhabitants of said desert (Amnoon and nomads) are non-too-fond of Joko".

 

Maybe Joko is kind of able able to pull a spell in Mordremoth style and use a willing subject as his eyes and ears without the subject having to leave physically for a report? It is not exactly necromantic magic, but I guess Joko is widely learned in the magic arts or has a servant which is able to do so.

[draxynnic.3719]

On the communication thing:

 

We DO know that it is possible, through mesmer magic, to set up a mental link that can be used for long-distance communication. If Joko has all his mesmers devoted to his spy network, he could probably make use of that as a means of receiving reports.

 

> @"Torolan.5816" said:

> > @"Ardid.7203" said:

> > Charr are three full, trained to walk and fight armies...

> > Queen Jenna and the Seraph are only important to humans, really. Since Joko is also a human, as are his awakened, yes, It is very likely he sees Divinity's Reach as a main objective for conquest.

>

> Charr are not an united and standing army. Only because you call yourself legion does neither make yourself Roman or as organized as a legion. Would you grade paramilitary forces that love to patrol the woods and wait for the Russians to attack the USA as a real army? Contrary to the belief of these people, they are only dangerous when they fight as guerilla forces. Even when they have an old howitzer standing around somewhere these guys are toast in the open field.

>

> Edit: after thinking a little bit about it, it would be a city combat and therefore good terrain for a skirmisher force.

 

I think you are grossly underestimating the charr here.

 

What a charr Legion is, basically, is an entire nation organised as if it was an army. Because of the realities of keeping a nation running, obviously every citizen can't be a front-line soldier all the time. Instead, you get some "warbands" that focus on tasks that in a more conventional nation would be the "home front", some warbands which perform noncombatant military duties, and others that are full-time soldiers, such as those in the Sentinels and the Adamant Guard.

 

There's no reason to think that the Adamant Guard is any less effective than the defenders of Divinity's Reach. In fact, on a one-to-one basis, I'd probably bet on the charr.

 

Where the real distinction lies is that most humans who aren't part of the military are going to be mere civilians. The existence of magic means that civilian magic-users might still be decent fighters in a pinch, and other civilians might be able to handle a weapon in self-defence (as was typical in the time) but they're not going to be soldiers. For the charr, though - you still have a core that is a genuine full-time military force, and each and every additional civilian is at the very least the equivalent of a reservist. When it comes to the fighting caliber of the citizens, I'd expect the Black Citadel to be a much tougher nut to crack than Divinity's Reach, especially given that the Citadel also has cannons and is generally built to be defensible.

 

The only advantages that DR is likely to have over the BC are population, a higher ratio of magic-users among humans compared to charr, and whatever additional magical defences Jennah may have put in place that we didn't see in S3E4.

[narcx.3570]

> @"lakdav.3694" said:

> With the Inquest Awakened in his service the most logical path would be the weakest city, Ebonhawke, and once the asura gate there is secured, up to Divinity's Reach completely bypassing most of its defenses. Even if not taking the city in one assault, enough chaos and corruption could be spread to infect the densely populated human capital with the revised Scarab Plague. Should DR fall, he can continue on with the same method right into the middle of Lions Arch. But I dont think that will ever happen, likely we would ruin his plans before Ebonhawke is taken.

>

> What I'm wondering on the side, what if its not just simple scarabs he wants to use, but another kind of bug that we got introduced to not long ago that seem to have some relevence in the overarching story. Chak Plague anyone?

 

Another interesting thing to support this is there's the "Closed" tunnel between Desert Highlands and Ebonhawke that even has an NPC in DH talking about it. The fact that they put an NPC there already--and designed this in PoF--kind of hints that it's for a future release, not abandoned content like the NPC's on the Ebonhawke might have been.

 

If Joko takes Ebonhawke, this could likely be the instance portal or zone entrance that we take to re-infiltrate the city.

[Torolan.5816]

> @"draxynnic.3719" said:

> On the communication thing:

>

> We DO know that it is possible, through mesmer magic, to set up a mental link that can be used for long-distance communication. If Joko has all his mesmers devoted to his spy network, he could probably make use of that as a means of receiving reports.

>

> > @"Torolan.5816" said:

> > > @"Ardid.7203" said:

> > > Charr are three full, trained to walk and fight armies...

> > > Queen Jenna and the Seraph are only important to humans, really. Since Joko is also a human, as are his awakened, yes, It is very likely he sees Divinity's Reach as a main objective for conquest.

> >

> > Charr are not an united and standing army. Only because you call yourself legion does neither make yourself Roman or as organized as a legion. Would you grade paramilitary forces that love to patrol the woods and wait for the Russians to attack the USA as a real army? Contrary to the belief of these people, they are only dangerous when they fight as guerilla forces. Even when they have an old howitzer standing around somewhere these guys are toast in the open field.

> >

> > Edit: after thinking a little bit about it, it would be a city combat and therefore good terrain for a skirmisher force.

>

> I think you are grossly underestimating the charr here.

>

> What a charr Legion is, basically, is an entire nation organised as if it was an army. Because of the realities of keeping a nation running, obviously every citizen can't be a front-line soldier all the time. Instead, you get some "warbands" that focus on tasks that in a more conventional nation would be the "home front", some warbands which perform noncombatant military duties, and others that are full-time soldiers, such as those in the Sentinels and the Adamant Guard.

>

> There's no reason to think that the Adamant Guard is any less effective than the defenders of Divinity's Reach. In fact, on a one-to-one basis, I'd probably bet on the charr.

>

> Where the real distinction lies is that most humans who aren't part of the military are going to be mere civilians. The existence of magic means that civilian magic-users might still be decent fighters in a pinch, and other civilians might be able to handle a weapon in self-defence (as was typical in the time) but they're not going to be soldiers. For the charr, though - you still have a core that is a genuine full-time military force, and each and every additional civilian is at the very least the equivalent of a reservist. When it comes to the fighting caliber of the citizens, I'd expect the Black Citadel to be a much tougher nut to crack than Divinity's Reach, especially given that the Citadel also has cannons and is generally built to be defensible.

>

> The only advantages that DR is likely to have over the BC are population, a higher ratio of magic-users among humans compared to charr, and whatever additional magical defences Jennah may have put in place that we didn't see in S3E4.

 

In the country where I live, we had something called the Wehrpflicht. Every male adult was checked if he was able to serve on a weapon and if he was, he either could make a compensatory service in child care, old care or something like that. I was enlisted too and served within a Jaeger unit first and finally an Artillery unit. My military practice today is close to zero. I still know how to march, crawl, drag a wounded comrade, know my place in a gunnery line and could probably maintain and fire a weapon after a crash course but I would be cannonfodder footsoldier material by every account.

 

If war broke out and I would be reenlisted today, I would have to fight alongside people I have never met as my reserve unit has long been disbanded. Any halfway organized army standing in the field for a little would easily slaughter us.

 

A paramilitary unit like a warband would overcome some of the problems I explained with practice on the weapon and the ability to follow orders quickly, but they still would have to face the problem that only a larger maneuver can prepare you for a theatre of war. An attacking army is mostly made of professionals, a hometown militia is a ragtag band of people standing around in the wrong place at the same time. Asymetrical warfare is always a thing, but it is a drawn out process and usually follows when your home base has been taken already.

[draxynnic.3719]

> @"Torolan.5816" said:

> > @"draxynnic.3719" said:

> > On the communication thing:

> >

> > We DO know that it is possible, through mesmer magic, to set up a mental link that can be used for long-distance communication. If Joko has all his mesmers devoted to his spy network, he could probably make use of that as a means of receiving reports.

> >

> > > @"Torolan.5816" said:

> > > > @"Ardid.7203" said:

> > > > Charr are three full, trained to walk and fight armies...

> > > > Queen Jenna and the Seraph are only important to humans, really. Since Joko is also a human, as are his awakened, yes, It is very likely he sees Divinity's Reach as a main objective for conquest.

> > >

> > > Charr are not an united and standing army. Only because you call yourself legion does neither make yourself Roman or as organized as a legion. Would you grade paramilitary forces that love to patrol the woods and wait for the Russians to attack the USA as a real army? Contrary to the belief of these people, they are only dangerous when they fight as guerilla forces. Even when they have an old howitzer standing around somewhere these guys are toast in the open field.

> > >

> > > Edit: after thinking a little bit about it, it would be a city combat and therefore good terrain for a skirmisher force.

> >

> > I think you are grossly underestimating the charr here.

> >

> > What a charr Legion is, basically, is an entire nation organised as if it was an army. Because of the realities of keeping a nation running, obviously every citizen can't be a front-line soldier all the time. Instead, you get some "warbands" that focus on tasks that in a more conventional nation would be the "home front", some warbands which perform noncombatant military duties, and others that are full-time soldiers, such as those in the Sentinels and the Adamant Guard.

> >

> > There's no reason to think that the Adamant Guard is any less effective than the defenders of Divinity's Reach. In fact, on a one-to-one basis, I'd probably bet on the charr.

> >

> > Where the real distinction lies is that most humans who aren't part of the military are going to be mere civilians. The existence of magic means that civilian magic-users might still be decent fighters in a pinch, and other civilians might be able to handle a weapon in self-defence (as was typical in the time) but they're not going to be soldiers. For the charr, though - you still have a core that is a genuine full-time military force, and each and every additional civilian is at the very least the equivalent of a reservist. When it comes to the fighting caliber of the citizens, I'd expect the Black Citadel to be a much tougher nut to crack than Divinity's Reach, especially given that the Citadel also has cannons and is generally built to be defensible.

> >

> > The only advantages that DR is likely to have over the BC are population, a higher ratio of magic-users among humans compared to charr, and whatever additional magical defences Jennah may have put in place that we didn't see in S3E4.

>

> In the country where I live, we had something called the Wehrpflicht. Every male adult was checked if he was able to serve on a weapon and if he was, he either could make a compensatory service in child care, old care or something like that. I was enlisted too and served within a Jaeger unit first and finally an Artillery unit. My military practice today is close to zero. I still know how to march, crawl, drag a wounded comrade, know my place in a gunnery line and could probably maintain and fire a weapon after a crash course but I would be cannonfodder footsoldier material by every account.

>

> If war broke out and I would be reenlisted today, I would have to fight alongside people I have never met as my reserve unit has long been disbanded. Any halfway organized army standing in the field for a little would easily slaughter us.

>

> A paramilitary unit like a warband would overcome some of the problems I explained with practice on the weapon and the ability to follow orders quickly, but they still would have to face the problem that only a larger maneuver can prepare you for a theatre of war. An attacking army is mostly made of professionals, a hometown militia is a ragtag band of people standing around in the wrong place at the same time. Asymetrical warfare is always a thing, but it is a drawn out process and usually follows when your home base has been taken already.

 

I'm pretty sure that the charr system still requires non-frontline warbands to spend some time maintaining their skills, which is something that is entirely possible to achieve on a national level. Medieval England, for instance, made archery practice once a week mandatory for able-bodied men - which is how England was able to field large numbers of longbowmen which most European countries couldn't do (without hiring English or Welsh mercenaries) because of the training, practice, and bodybuilding needed to make an effective longbowman.

 

The charr system seems to be more along the lines of a universal reserve that trains together, at least at the warband level, on a regular basis. Not a national service of the kind you're talking about where people serve their time and then their skills are allowed to fade.

 

And this doesn't even address my main point: that the Black Citadel has a full-time military as well in the Adamant Guard (plus whatever other regular units happen to be stationed there). So, when comparing the Black Citadel to Divinity's Reach, we're not comparing a full-time army to reservists. We're comparing a full-time army supported by a population which is mostly comprised of reservists to a full-time army that needs to protect a population of mostly civilians.

 

The only way that Divinity's Reach could be a tougher nut to crack than the Black Citadel is if the former has a significantly higher population and/or additional magical protections that we haven't seen. (Both of which is possible. One of the distinctions between human magic and asura is that items enchanted by humans aren't necessarily recognisable as magic on a casual inspection. DR could be more heavily enchanted than Rata Sum and we might never know. On the population side - you need a LOT more arable land to support a mostly carnivorous population like the charr compared to omnivores like humans, particularly considering that charr are also bigger.)

[Aeolus.3615]

The Quagan city , Lag Arch.... needs a new decoration.

[Torolan.5816]

> @"draxynnic.3719" said:

> > @"Torolan.5816" said:

> > > @"draxynnic.3719" said:

> > > On the communication thing:

> > >

> > > We DO know that it is possible, through mesmer magic, to set up a mental link that can be used for long-distance communication. If Joko has all his mesmers devoted to his spy network, he could probably make use of that as a means of receiving reports.

> > >

> > > > @"Torolan.5816" said:

> > > > > @"Ardid.7203" said:

> > > > > Charr are three full, trained to walk and fight armies...

> > > > > Queen Jenna and the Seraph are only important to humans, really. Since Joko is also a human, as are his awakened, yes, It is very likely he sees Divinity's Reach as a main objective for conquest.

> > > >

> > > > Charr are not an united and standing army. Only because you call yourself legion does neither make yourself Roman or as organized as a legion. Would you grade paramilitary forces that love to patrol the woods and wait for the Russians to attack the USA as a real army? Contrary to the belief of these people, they are only dangerous when they fight as guerilla forces. Even when they have an old howitzer standing around somewhere these guys are toast in the open field.

> > > >

> > > > Edit: after thinking a little bit about it, it would be a city combat and therefore good terrain for a skirmisher force.

> > >

> > > I think you are grossly underestimating the charr here.

> > >

> > > What a charr Legion is, basically, is an entire nation organised as if it was an army. Because of the realities of keeping a nation running, obviously every citizen can't be a front-line soldier all the time. Instead, you get some "warbands" that focus on tasks that in a more conventional nation would be the "home front", some warbands which perform noncombatant military duties, and others that are full-time soldiers, such as those in the Sentinels and the Adamant Guard.

> > >

> > > There's no reason to think that the Adamant Guard is any less effective than the defenders of Divinity's Reach. In fact, on a one-to-one basis, I'd probably bet on the charr.

> > >

> > > Where the real distinction lies is that most humans who aren't part of the military are going to be mere civilians. The existence of magic means that civilian magic-users might still be decent fighters in a pinch, and other civilians might be able to handle a weapon in self-defence (as was typical in the time) but they're not going to be soldiers. For the charr, though - you still have a core that is a genuine full-time military force, and each and every additional civilian is at the very least the equivalent of a reservist. When it comes to the fighting caliber of the citizens, I'd expect the Black Citadel to be a much tougher nut to crack than Divinity's Reach, especially given that the Citadel also has cannons and is generally built to be defensible.

> > >

> > > The only advantages that DR is likely to have over the BC are population, a higher ratio of magic-users among humans compared to charr, and whatever additional magical defences Jennah may have put in place that we didn't see in S3E4.

> >

> > In the country where I live, we had something called the Wehrpflicht. Every male adult was checked if he was able to serve on a weapon and if he was, he either could make a compensatory service in child care, old care or something like that. I was enlisted too and served within a Jaeger unit first and finally an Artillery unit. My military practice today is close to zero. I still know how to march, crawl, drag a wounded comrade, know my place in a gunnery line and could probably maintain and fire a weapon after a crash course but I would be cannonfodder footsoldier material by every account.

> >

> > If war broke out and I would be reenlisted today, I would have to fight alongside people I have never met as my reserve unit has long been disbanded. Any halfway organized army standing in the field for a little would easily slaughter us.

> >

> > A paramilitary unit like a warband would overcome some of the problems I explained with practice on the weapon and the ability to follow orders quickly, but they still would have to face the problem that only a larger maneuver can prepare you for a theatre of war. An attacking army is mostly made of professionals, a hometown militia is a ragtag band of people standing around in the wrong place at the same time. Asymetrical warfare is always a thing, but it is a drawn out process and usually follows when your home base has been taken already.

>

> I'm pretty sure that the charr system still requires non-frontline warbands to spend some time maintaining their skills, which is something that is entirely possible to achieve on a national level. Medieval England, for instance, made archery practice once a week mandatory for able-bodied men - which is how England was able to field large numbers of longbowmen which most European countries couldn't do (without hiring English or Welsh mercenaries) because of the training, practice, and bodybuilding needed to make an effective longbowman.

>

> The charr system seems to be more along the lines of a universal reserve that trains together, at least at the warband level, on a regular basis. Not a national service of the kind you're talking about where people serve their time and then their skills are allowed to fade.

>

> And this doesn't even address my main point: that the Black Citadel has a full-time military as well in the Adamant Guard (plus whatever other regular units happen to be stationed there). So, when comparing the Black Citadel to Divinity's Reach, we're not comparing a full-time army to reservists. We're comparing a full-time army supported by a population which is mostly comprised of reservists to a full-time army that needs to protect a population of mostly civilians.

>

> The only way that Divinity's Reach could be a tougher nut to crack than the Black Citadel is if the former has a significantly higher population and/or additional magical protections that we haven't seen. (Both of which is possible. One of the distinctions between human magic and asura is that items enchanted by humans aren't necessarily recognisable as magic on a casual inspection. DR could be more heavily enchanted than Rata Sum and we might never know. On the population side - you need a LOT more arable land to support a mostly carnivorous population like the charr compared to omnivores like humans, particularly considering that charr are also bigger.)

 

I don´t know about the abilities of the standing forces of the charr, but I would basically share your guess that hey are superior fighter in a man vs man scenario. But I see a loyality problem within that system in general.

 

Loyality:

Lets say that really every charr is organized in a warband. Charr who loose their band become kind of dishonored and Gladius, probably with all the setback of survivors guilt which is semared in their face every day. What about them? Not everyone of them will be material for the Adamant Guard. They have a very low chance of social redemption so that they will either immigrate into other countries to escape that situation or let themselves stationed at the outskirts of charr lands.

In a given skirmish, it would be enough for Joko to inflict damage on foot soldiers instead of leaders because it would very quickly weaken the morale of the soldiers when they loose 2/4 or just 1/4 of their closest allies. A human army could compensate for that on a much easier term. And humans recently ended their internal strife.

So I would say Charr: 0, Humans 1

 

Terrain:

The Black Fortress is a wide array of killing fields if you want to advance to the center. The best way would probably be through the backdoor of the arena, but charr are skilled skirmishers so that would be a highly dangerous route too.

Divinities reach is cramped and only gets wide in the middle. Good for an army like the one of Joko, they had years and years to train city combat.

Charr: 1, Humans: 1

 

Logistics:

Charr use a wide array of firearms with ammunition. It takes a higher technology level to fashion firearms and ammunition than bows and crossbows. Charr are largely carnivorous, humans can basically eat window putty or hay roofs if things turn really dire for a short time. You can store bow ammunition for a very long time and still use it, simple flintlock ammo is suspicible to weather and especially water if you are not firing improvised shot ammo which is not very good for the weapon.

Charr: 1, Humans: 2

 

Individual class of soldiers:

Charr are probably the better and more trained soldiers, although less numerous. The general mobilization potential is indeed very high among them.

Charr: 2, Humans: 2

 

Support:

This is in my eyes the main weakness of the charr. They have a quite narrow mindset about martial superiority instead of a combined arms approach(in our case Casters, Infantry and Artillery), so their casters and probably even heavy artillery troops(mortars, tanks) will not be of the best quality compared to infantry armies. They are probably more resistant to damage, but I would guess that their medical teams also do not stand very high in the pecking order.

Charr: 2, Humans: 3

 

Leadership:

I always though of Logan Thackery as a terrible field commander and of Jenna as Damsel in distress. Jenna proved differently and Logan is now a pact commander but would surely come to the aid of his hometown because loyality to a given cause is not his strongest suit. Jenna is powerful but still operates more with the help of her secret society and not in open warfare.

Smodur is a military leader through and through. Rhytlock is the charr version of Logan and for me no help at all.

Charr: 3, Humans: 3

[draxynnic.3719]

> @"Torolan.5816" said:

>

> Loyality:

> Lets say that really every charr is organized in a warband. Charr who loose their band become kind of dishonored and Gladius, probably with all the setback of survivors guilt which is semared in their face every day. What about them? Not everyone of them will be material for the Adamant Guard. They have a very low chance of social redemption so that they will either immigrate into other countries to escape that situation or let themselves stationed at the outskirts of charr lands.

> In a given skirmish, it would be enough for Joko to inflict damage on foot soldiers instead of leaders because it would very quickly weaken the morale of the soldiers when they loose 2/4 or just 1/4 of their closest allies. A human army could compensate for that on a much easier term. And humans recently ended their internal strife.

> So I would say Charr: 0, Humans 1

 

I think you're overexaggerating the effect of gladium on charr society as a whole, _especially_ if we're talking about a single battle. We see a lot of responses from charr in-game for becoming gladium, but in most cases it tends to be "find another warband", "accept a solo mission", or "go out fighting for the good of the Legion!". In the single-battle scenario, a charr who's lost the rest of their warband - assuming they even know they're the only survivor - is probably going to continue fighting the rest of the battle, and leave thinking about the future for, well, the future.

 

On the whole, the loyalty of charr to their legion seems to be greater than the average loyalty of humans to Kryta. We've just seen a resolution of the "cold civil war", which has probably cleared out a lot of the actual traitors - however, the banditry problems probably haven't gone away and humans historically have had a lot more problems with treachery than the charr have.

 

So I would give this one to the charr.

 

BC 1, DR 0

>

> Terrain:

> The Black Fortress is a wide array of killing fields if you want to advance to the center. The best way would probably be through the backdoor of the arena, but charr are skilled skirmishers so that would be a highly dangerous route too.

> Divinities reach is cramped and only gets wide in the middle. Good for an army like the one of Joko, they had years and years to train city combat.

> Charr: 1, Humans: 1

 

Your points against Divinity's Reach might actually be points _for_ Divinity's Reach. We've seen that Jennah has the capability to raise magical barricades that are prepared in advance - the cramped spaces might actually grant the defenders of Divinity's Reach more ability to capitalise on such defenses, turning the narrow streets into traps and bottlenecks. This is pretty much speculation, though. I would note that the central palace would probably be difficult to break into, though, especially if the high roads were broken or otherwise rendered inaccessible.

 

Based on what we actually know, as opposed to speculation, though, the BC probably still wins.

 

BC 2, DR 0

>

> Logistics:

> Charr use a wide array of firearms with ammunition. It takes a higher technology level to fashion firearms and ammunition than bows and crossbows. Charr are largely carnivorous, humans can basically eat window putty or hay roofs if things turn really dire for a short time. You can store bow ammunition for a very long time and still use it, simple flintlock ammo is suspicible to weather and especially water if you are not firing improvised shot ammo which is not very good for the weapon.

> Charr: 1, Humans: 2

 

Apart from the food supply, this is pretty much the exact opposite of what you claim:

 

There are reasons that historical armies turned towards gunpowder weapons even in the days when they weren't tactically superior to crossbows (which are apparently unknown in Tyria anyway) and longbows, and part of it is that they're actually easier to maintain a logistics supply chain for. Arrows require skilled fletchers and are bulky - powder and shot, despite requiring more scientific knowledge to make, actually requires less skill once the knowledge is available, and more rounds of ammunition can be stored in the same space.

 

On top of this, human equipment, including higher-tech stuff such as firearms, tends to be handmade by traditional means. Charr equipment is mass-produced. So even on top of the above, they probably produce equipment at a faster rate and what they produce is more standardised (which further simplifies the logistics).

 

Advantage: Charr, unless a starvation scenario presents itself.

 

BC 3, DR 0

>

> Individual class of soldiers:

> Charr are probably the better and more trained soldiers, although less numerous. The general mobilization potential is indeed very high among them.

> Charr: 2, Humans: 2

 

Agreed. BC 4, DR 0

>

> Support:

> This is in my eyes the main weakness of the charr. They have a quite narrow mindset about martial superiority instead of a combined arms approach(in our case Casters, Infantry and Artillery), so their casters and probably even heavy artillery troops(mortars, tanks) will not be of the best quality compared to infantry armies. They are probably more resistant to damage, but I would guess that their medical teams also do not stand very high in the pecking order.

> Charr: 2, Humans: 3

 

This one is hard to define.

 

Charr certainly do have a combined-arms approach. They have good infantry and their artillery corps is probably the strongest in Tyria (Asura can build more dangerous pieces, but charr cannon are dangerous _enough_ and produced on a much greater scale than anything the asura put out). Kryta doesn't have tanks at all that I've seen (although there is an ambiguous question on whether anyone outside of Lion's Arch, the Pact, and the Aetherblades have airships - I'd be inclined to say, though, that either both Kryta and the Iron Legion have them, or neither do, making it an even point either way), and a lot less in the way of cannons. Watchknights can compensate for this somewhat, but what we see in S3E4 indicates that watchknights are still relatively few on the ground.

 

Magic is a relative charr weakness, but only a relative one. Charr disdain magic, but they don't eschew it entirely. Human access to magic is certainly stronger, but _how_ much stronger is quite hard to define. Can't really give it to either without knowing what Jennah might have up her sleeves.

>

> Leadership:

> I always though of Logan Thackery as a terrible field commander and of Jenna as Damsel in distress. Jenna proved differently and Logan is now a pact commander but would surely come to the aid of his hometown because loyality to a given cause is not his strongest suit. Jenna is powerful but still operates more with the help of her secret society and not in open warfare.

> Smodur is a military leader through and through. Rhytlock is the charr version of Logan and for me no help at all.

> Charr: 3, Humans: 3

 

I personally don't have the same lack of faith in characters as you do. It's worth noting, though, that Logan and Rytlock might not be relevant to current circumstances since both are otherwise occupied elsewhere. So we're essentially looking at Jennah and her commanders versus Smodur and his commanders.

 

Jennah does have a history of delegating her battle tactics to her commanders, so Smodur probably has the advantage here. Furthermore, it's generally been Logan that Jennah puts in charge, while Smodur has multiple Tribunes available who probably are more focused on battlefield command than Rytlock. So Smodur probably has the edge here.

 

So, by these criteria, I actually end up with all points but one to the Black Citadel, and that's a 'maybe'.

 

I should note, though, that Kryta is still a worthy competitor - the human military is probably still the most powerful among the five races _apart from_ the charr.

[Finalfreefall.8247]

I'd guess Rata Sum. Meta-wise the Asura technically have a backup city in Rata Novus and Joko seems like the kind of person who realizes the tactical importance of being able to kick a nuke through a portal. Getting high-skill Asura would give him both nukes and portals.

[zolcor.2601]

Remember that the most recent living story episode was called Daybreak? Daybreak is a reference to Nightfall, the dark event that Abaddon tried to complete in GW1. It's entirely possible the Joko we saw in Fahranur is indeed Joko, and that either he's an unwilling/willing agent of a much darker force, or that the strange red clothed female Awakened following him is really the mastermind of coming events and not Joko himself. Then we got Taimi's mention to the Commander of a possibly new Scarab Plague in the making. Abaddon had a scarab like face in GW1, and it's possible he created the original plague before Nightfall happened. Despite what lore says about Kormir absorbing Abaddon's power to take his place, I believe that some part of Abaddon managed to escape being absorbed, and that overtime Abaddon got most if not all his form and strength back. I also think the possible coming invasion of Tyria will be the catalyst of a new Nightfall. Maybe Kormir and the other 5 gods will go against their decision to retreat from Tyria, even for a little bit to stop Abaddon reborn. It's highly unlikely that would happen, but I firmly believe Abaddon is Joko's master whether Joko is willingly or unwillingly following him, and that the red clothed Awakened female following Joko around is Abaddon in disguise.

[ugrakarma.9416]

In favor of the human counts the existence of very powerful individuals in the matter of control of magic. On the contrary, the problem is that counting few individuals presumes they will be in the right place at the right time.

 

But in all, in favor of my theory that there will be no great invasion and everything is just distraction, there is still the question of Anet tending to push all the new stories to occur in Elona.

 

[ugrakarma.9416]

> @"zolcor.2601" said:

> Remember that the most recent living story episode was called Daybreak? Daybreak is a reference to Nightfall, the dark event that Abaddon tried to complete in GW1. It's entirely possible the Joko we saw in Fahranur is indeed Joko, and that either he's an unwilling/willing agent of a much darker force, or that the strange red clothed female Awakened following him is really the mastermind of coming events and not Joko himself. Then we got Taimi's mention to the Commander of a possibly new Scarab Plague in the making. Abaddon had a scarab like face in GW1, and it's possible he created the original plague before Nightfall happened. Despite what lore says about Kormir absorbing Abaddon's power to take his place, I believe that some part of Abaddon managed to escape being absorbed, and that overtime Abaddon got most if not all his form and strength back. I also think the possible coming invasion of Tyria will be the catalyst of a new Nightfall. Maybe Kormir and the other 5 gods will go against their decision to retreat from Tyria, even for a little bit to stop Abaddon reborn. It's highly unlikely that would happen, but I firmly believe Abaddon is Joko's master whether Joko is willingly or unwillingly following him, and that the red clothed Awakened female following Joko around is Abaddon in disguise.

 

more recycling of GW1/nightfall? Was not balthaddon enough?

[CETheLucid.3964]

> @"Arden.7480" said:

> **The Grove**- I think it's unlikely. I wonder: what if Sylvari are immune to be Awakened?- as far I didn't see any Awakened Sylvari, also I didn't see any awakened charr etc, but we know Human and Asura can be Awakened. It's just 'what if', but that would be very interesting.

 

Joko can probably awaken all the races except sylvari because they're technically already constructs of another being. They've proven themselves resistant to other forms of corruption save from their "own" (Mordremoth). Also the Joko we used to know was very particular. He liked raising humans almost exclusively for service in his army and used other races for labor and building material more or less.

 

Corrupting other races and raising them for service in his army is a new thing he's doing (if indeed it is the original Joko). Of course it's not out of the question for him and he has gained some very valuable insight by awakening asura. That Joko might be becoming a more equal opportunity Lich Lord is bad news for Tyria. But even as fodder or material, Joko probably hates sylvari because they're not made of flesh and blood. He literally can't use them for anything.

 

The Grove would probably be among his last targets as he'd want a sufficiently large army to take it. He couldn't replenish his ranks there.

 

> **Black Citadel**- it's likely, because charr are the military race, and taking control over so many weapons' ideas and tactics would be disasterous for us.

 

Black Citadel is also unlikely in spite of the great spoils he'd gain if he managed it. You underplay how powerful the charr army is and how little they care for the vitals of their foes. Charr have been fighting the undead for a very long time, every charr alive today has experiance in this regard. Joko wouldn't be much of a change for them. He'd have to fell a great many other places before he'd have the zerg power to maybe give them cause for concern.

 

Also we're all buddies at this point. Charr helped the humans when the White Mantle made their move on DR. Humans would almost certainly help the charr in the event of an attack and it would turn into a united front against a people who was already strong.

 

>**Divinity's Reach**- with the huge powers of Jennah, its very unlikely this city will fall. She and her army is very good, and they don't kneel before any enemy. Also we got the battle for Lake Doric/Divinity's Reach few months ago, and I thinjk it's not Joko's major target.

 

Vice versa for DR if he made a direct move on it, although it's already been hit hard. I can't imagine Queen Jennah can just fart out god-tier barriers on demand. Charr are good friends to have. That said Joko is kinda weird. Again he has a thing for humans. He might want to keep a controlled DR alive for their riches per economy and a living population he can rule over ala Vabbi. Assuming Joko did take DR I don't think the general population would be in immediate danger, but that would be a very cold comfort given the state of Vabbi.

 

>**Hoelbrak**- also likely, but I think this city is not Joko's target, if we look at Asura or Charr secrets etc, Norn have less to give.

 

Norn are also crazy af. One norn can probably solo an entire awakened battalion, let alone a city of crazy half-giant were-people looking for a reason to fight? Charr-tier and with less payoff. You don't mess with the norn.

 

>**Rata Sum**- very, very likely. If Joko takes Rata Sum, then he has the open way to Rata Novus, and we know how many secrets are there.

 

This I can agree with. Not because asura aren't strong militarily, it's their politics that could end up being their downfall. Their "leader" is two-faced and working closely with the inquest (who began this). If they're getting attacked would they even accept outside help or concede that they needed it? Pride is an issue with them. That said they probably do have the tech and savvy to fend off an attack. They have a Zojja.

 

But among the cities, Rata Sum would be the one that seems most vulnerable given Joko's recent conscription of the Inquest and the obtaining of their secrets as a result.

[Aaron Ansari.1604]

> @"CETheLucid.3964" said:

>Also the Joko we used to know was very particular. He liked raising humans almost exclusively for service in his army and used other races for labor and building material more or less.

 

> Corrupting other races and raising them for service in his army is a new thing he's doing (if indeed it is the original Joko).

 

I'm with you on basically all your other points, but the Joko we knew in GW1 actually had a long history of multi-racial armies. It's one of the more puzzling changes from the Awakened redesign.

 

Of the eight basic varieties of his original forces, only three-to-four came from humans (depending on what exactly went into the [effigies](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Carven_Effigy)). [Two](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Acolyte) were [centaurs](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Thought_Leech), and there's a point where he explicitly mentions that he used undead centaurs for his cavalry. There was also a variety of [giant](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Gray_Giant), and what may have been [mummified charr](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Defiler).

 

From that perspective, Awakening the Inquest is a return to form for him, not anything new.

[draxynnic.3719]

I suspect it's part of his "rebranding" of Awakening being an honour to be sought - in order to maintain the aura of exclusivity it appears to have in Vabbi, he makes it appear as if only honoured citizens receive Awakening. Given that we know that _outside_ the borders of Elona he isn't picky at all about who he Awakens, though, I'd be willing to bet that he still has a sizable contingent of nonhuman Awakened that he keeps in reserve - or garrisoning locations where Elonians aren't likely to go or see. Such as Fahrunar.

 

Incidentally, on sylvari: They're resistant to most forms of dragon corruption, but we don't know for sure they can't be Awakened. Given that we've never seen plant Awakened, there's a good chance they can't be, but it's possible they can.

[CETheLucid.3964]

> @"Aaron Ansari.1604" said:

> > @"CETheLucid.3964" said:

> >Also the Joko we used to know was very particular. He liked raising humans almost exclusively for service in his army and used other races for labor and building material more or less.

>

> > Corrupting other races and raising them for service in his army is a new thing he's doing (if indeed it is the original Joko).

>

> I'm with you on basically all your other points, but the Joko we knew in GW1 actually had a long history of multi-racial armies. It's one of the more puzzling changes from the Awakened redesign.

>

> Of the eight basic varieties of his original forces, only three-to-four came from humans (depending on what exactly went into the [effigies](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Carven_Effigy)). [Two](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Acolyte) were [centaurs](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Thought_Leech), and there's a point where he explicitly mentions that he used undead centaurs for his cavalry. There was also a variety of [giant](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Gray_Giant), and what may have been [mummified charr](https://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Awakened_Defiler).

>

> From that perspective, Awakening the Inquest is a return to form for him, not anything new.

 

> @"draxynnic.3719" said:

> I suspect it's part of his "rebranding" of Awakening being an honour to be sought - in order to maintain the aura of exclusivity it appears to have in Vabbi, he makes it appear as if only honoured citizens receive Awakening. Given that we know that _outside_ the borders of Elona he isn't picky at all about who he Awakens, though, I'd be willing to bet that he still has a sizable contingent of nonhuman Awakened that he keeps in reserve - or garrisoning locations where Elonians aren't likely to go or see. Such as Fahrunar.

>

> Incidentally, on sylvari: They're resistant to most forms of dragon corruption, but we don't know for sure they can't be Awakened. Given that we've never seen plant Awakened, there's a good chance they can't be, but it's possible they can.

 

Both of these are fair points. That said I've not seen any centaur or giant awakened units in his army as of recent. He did do that in the past per GW1 but even there Joko himself pretty much confirms he relagates non-humans to servile functions, calling Zhed's people mules for his armies (which almost resulted in Zhed torching him).

 

It's also confirmed per one scene in PoF non-humans are pretty much building materials or fodder, save for the recent incident with the Inquest asura. We can still find giants in Elona. Not in Joko's army though. As for centaurs, they either all fled north and joined with the troublesome tribes in mainland Tyria giving the humans trouble (a lot of the Harathi talk of Zhed and use his slang regarding "two-legs) or else Joko straight up succeded in a complete extinction of the centaur tribes of Elona with the only evidence of them being a bone structure in the Bone Palace.

 

As for the mummies of the past (and indeed the recent awakened canids which look more beastlike than human), it's confirmed at least that second one is (or was) human. I guess stronger ones become more sharp and pointy? I dunno. Necromancers are weird.

[Felipe.1807]

I dont understand how Joko is sending armies to try conquer Tyria, he havent even conquered all Elona, his troops sufered huge losses with the war against Balthazar and now Anet is telling me that he still have a army big enough to be a threat to any of the major races? We killed 2 elder dragons(Zhaintan might not count, but we killed Mordremoth inside his mind, where he was supposed to be stronger) and a God and also have a dragon as companion...dont know why we dont march against Joko armies with the remaining Sunspears and get done with this dude...main problem with making your character OP like Anet did with the commander, your actions at some point dont make sense...lol the last episode our characters were hiding from Joko bounty hunters...we just killed a GOD, who would be insane enough to even try to face our character lol

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

> @"draxynnic.3719" said:

> > @"Torolan.5816" said:

> > Support:

> > This is in my eyes the main weakness of the charr. They have a quite narrow mindset about martial superiority instead of a combined arms approach(in our case Casters, Infantry and Artillery), so their casters and probably even heavy artillery troops(mortars, tanks) will not be of the best quality compared to infantry armies. They are probably more resistant to damage, but I would guess that their medical teams also do not stand very high in the pecking order.

> > Charr: 2, Humans: 3

>

> This one is hard to define.

>

> Charr certainly do have a combined-arms approach. They have good infantry and their artillery corps is probably the strongest in Tyria (Asura can build more dangerous pieces, but charr cannon are dangerous _enough_ and produced on a much greater scale than anything the asura put out). Kryta doesn't have tanks at all that I've seen (although there is an ambiguous question on whether anyone outside of Lion's Arch, the Pact, and the Aetherblades have airships - I'd be inclined to say, though, that either both Kryta and the Iron Legion have them, or neither do, making it an even point either way), and a lot less in the way of cannons. Watchknights can compensate for this somewhat, but what we see in S3E4 indicates that watchknights are still relatively few on the ground.

>

> Magic is a relative charr weakness, but only a relative one. Charr disdain magic, but they don't eschew it entirely. Human access to magic is certainly stronger, but _how_ much stronger is quite hard to define. Can't really give it to either without knowing what Jennah might have up her sleeves.

 

In regards to air support:

 

There is dialogue from Season 2 (iirc) about Seraph airships, so I imagine they exist but are few in number. They also have hot air balloons for what good that'll do.

 

Charr are known via the guild missions to have a number of choppers akin to the Pact's own choppers (the Iron Legion being the inventors of the prototypes there, and likely got a number back which they then reverse engineered).

 

Charr would certainly have better air superiority than Krytans, but Joko has no air superiority even in Elona.

 

> @"zolcor.2601" said:

> Remember that the most recent living story episode was called Daybreak? Daybreak is a reference to Nightfall, the dark event that Abaddon tried to complete in GW1. It's entirely possible the Joko we saw in Fahranur is indeed Joko, and that either he's an unwilling/willing agent of a much darker force, or that the strange red clothed female Awakened following him is really the mastermind of coming events and not Joko himself. Then we got Taimi's mention to the Commander of a possibly new Scarab Plague in the making. Abaddon had a scarab like face in GW1, and it's possible he created the original plague before Nightfall happened. Despite what lore says about Kormir absorbing Abaddon's power to take his place, I believe that some part of Abaddon managed to escape being absorbed, and that overtime Abaddon got most if not all his form and strength back. I also think the possible coming invasion of Tyria will be the catalyst of a new Nightfall. Maybe Kormir and the other 5 gods will go against their decision to retreat from Tyria, even for a little bit to stop Abaddon reborn. It's highly unlikely that would happen, but I firmly believe Abaddon is Joko's master whether Joko is willingly or unwillingly following him, and that the red clothed Awakened female following Joko around is Abaddon in disguise.

 

The jackal's lore poses a great problem with that theory, as it shows that they are, in fact, Abaddon's last influence. Any influence a "reborn Abaddon" might have (and after Balthaddon's plot, I really, **really** hope they don't supercheese it with return of Abaddon - he was a good villain, but let him stay dead so that he remains a good villain ffs) would undoubtably either a) cause the Jackals to go out of control, or b) give similar appearance as the pre-jackal-shaped influence Abaddon and his Margonites left on the Desolation sands.

 

Furthermore, dialogue in The Desolation by ghosts indicate that the sulfurous toxicity, which was caused by Abaddon's influence, has been receding in the past 250 years. This further indicates that Abaddon is dead and his power is gone.

 

So even if you ignore Nightfall's dialogue about Abaddon being absorbed by Kormir and the two becoming one, we have dialogue in PoF which only reaffirms this concept.

 

And besides all that, Nightfall was just Abaddon's attempt to break out of his prison. So he has no more need to bring it about again - just to gain power and take revenge against the other gods who "unjustly" defied him (hence calling Balthazar "Balthaddon" - Balthazar's motivation was almost an exact copy of Abaddon's plot, we do not need the same plot twice in a row TYVM).

[Konig Des Todes.2086]

> @"CETheLucid.3964" said:

> Both of these are fair points. That said I've not seen any centaur or giant awakened units in his army as of recent. He did do that in the past per GW1 but even there Joko himself pretty much confirms he relagates non-humans to servile functions, calling Zhed's people mules for his armies (which almost resulted in Zhed torching him).

 

Cavalry isn't exactly servile. And he had the giants and suspected-charr in his main army too.

 

He also had plenty of undead humans in servile positions. So Joko had shown to not be particularly caring of what role a person fulfills so long as they fulfilled a role benefiting him.

 

He did make racist threats against centaurs a lot, but his actions didn't exactly match his words.

 

The use of centaurs as solely building materials was a post-GW1 point, but during and before, wasn't so. This no doubt because he had conquered Elona and thus had a much larger group to get undead corpses from.

 

> @"CETheLucid.3964" said:

> As for centaurs, they either all fled north and joined with the troublesome tribes in mainland Tyria giving the humans trouble (a lot of the Harathi talk of Zhed and use his slang regarding "two-legs)

 

By all accounts, they didn't. The Harathi came from the Maguuma Jungle, so unlikely to house any 200-or-less ties to Velderunners or Losaru. Tamini come from east of the/eastern Far Shiverpeaks and Modniir come from the Northern/Far Shiverpeaks. The "two-leg" talk was also used by modniir in Eye of the North, IIRC, but Elonian centaurs had a very clearly distinctively different appearance than Tyrian centaurs - they would have stood out like sore thumbs.

 

If Elonians centaurs fled anywhere, it would likely have been to the closer Dzalana.

 

Then again, if Joko retained any non-human Awakened, that's likely where he'd station those too.

 

> @"CETheLucid.3964" said:

> As for the mummies of the past (and indeed the recent awakened canids which look more beastlike than human), it's confirmed at least that second one is (or was) human. I guess stronger ones become more sharp and pointy? I dunno. Necromancers are weird.

 

Canids and Abominations in GW2 are described by devs as being "flesh warped" humans. Probably in a similar light as necromancer minions not really matching any clear species.