Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 > @"RoseofGilead.8907" said: > After seeing that the price for the dumplings has doubled since I checked last night (and after noting that I've gotten exactly one steamed red dumpling from the envelopes I've opened so far), I have to agree that this seems . . . off-putting. Essences of luck would have been a better (and more reliably obtained by just playing, like snowflakes and candy corn are) thing for this particular festival. Essences of luck are basically free to some people and costly to others: those with max magic find have no use of essences of luck, so every essence dropped is 'free' of any sort of opportunity cost. In contrast, those who haven't maxed lose the opportunity to max their MF (and the better average loot that comes with it) if they spend on the achievement. It would be, in effect, free to an interesting fraction of veterans, free to TP barons, and costly to everyone else. The dumplings are the opposite: people can choose to sell to those who value AP over gold or (ahem) dump them on the greedy little beggar. They sink gold from the economy. The only people who enjoy an extra benefit are those who bought all the 2015-17 dumplings, as noted by @"Danikat.8537". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayakaru.6583 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 > @"Bloodstealer.5978" said: > > @"Nightshade.5924" said: > > > @"Fleabite.7528" said: > > > Unless my RNG sucked tonight they've made the drop rate rare. I opened around 50 envelopes with not one red steamed dumpling. > > > > > > 500 are needed for the 25 AP. Present AH price? About 80 silver each. 400 gold total. > > > > > > So it would seem to be a deliberate and cynical gold sink. Lucky us. > > > > Can't call it a gold sink. Gold transfer is correct. You can't buy them from a vendor, after all... just other players. > > > > Hence who are the real TP barons... But 15% of all transaction currency is removed from the economy. So 15% of 400 gold per player is a pretty big sink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I agree that it's odd that ANet chose this as Drooburt's request, especially without upping the drop rate. Here's some additional math. * In 2017, the drop rate was under 10 per 1000 for low MF and ~40 per 1000 for high MF — either way, pretty low. For easy math, let's call it 25 per 1000. * Presumably anyone interested in investing gold in their AP would also be willing to invest gold in the envelopes and some people would be willing to invest in the envelopes without caring to donate to Drooburt (since you can get +20-30% just by selling on the TP). * Each account can buy 16 envelopes per day in DR, plus 3 for commendations in the GH. * By the end of this year's LNY, participating players would purchase ~900 divine envelopes (55 days * 16 per day, plus a few extra from Guild Hall) * So that's roughly 22-23 dumplings per envelope investor available this year. And roughly 7/year thereafter. (Yes, there are a lot of assumptions required to come up with that number, some too optimistic, some too pessimistic. It's not meant as 'proof', just to illustrate the scale of the market.) That gives the impression that, just to donate to Drooburt once, we would need to purchase from the TP, even if we saved all your drops from previous years. However that doesn't take into account all the Homemade envelopes. We got 100s of those in previous years, which were tradeable. And since they are account bound this year, folks are going to open up a lot of them. It's a lot harder to estimate how many of those we earn. I think it's reasonable to presume we might have gotten triple the Homemade as we did Divine, so that would generate close to enough dumplings to donate to Drooburt in year one just from our own efforts. If those estimates (rough though they may be) are close, it means that ANet's data would show something like... * Each "serious" LNY participant generated roughly enough dumplings to supply one person with one Drooburt donation (5 AP) * Investors who care about gold more than AP would earn more this year than previously, from selling or opening envelopes * Veterans who care more about AP than gold can choose to trade coin for points. * Since there's a cap of 25 points, eventually, the supply will again outstrip demand and the cost will go down. That's not necessarily bad. It just seems odd because they could have also chosen a smaller number of dumplings to achieve a similar effect, without making it feel bad. **** ##### 2017 Divine Envelope Data * [Wanze](https://redd.it/5q3j81) (1000 each at MF = 15% 738%) * [sugon](https://redd.it/5qftxh) (2500 at MF = 848%) * [Xyreth](https://redd.it/5orvn8) (480 at MF = 785%) * [DEDouvwe](https://redd.it/5rgbqq) (590 at MF = ~1000%) ##### Lunar New Dates * Lunar New Year 2015: Year of the Ram (10 days: 15 – 24 Feb) * Lunar New Year 2016: Year of the Monkey (15 days: 26 Jan – 9 Feb) * Lunar New Year 2017: Year of the Rooster (23 days: 17 Jan – 8 Feb) * Lunar New Year 2018: Year of the Dog (17 days: 6 – 22 Feb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fleabite.7528 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The price for the dumplings is up 47% on day one, to 1g18s. There are less than 1,000 dumplings for sale on the entire AH at present. Given the absurd rarity and the high numbers required for the AP, there's little indication that costs for the completed achievement will drop below 500-600 gold. And plenty to suggest prices will worsen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manasa Devi.7958 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said: > I agree that it's odd that ANet chose this as Drooburt's request, especially without upping the drop rate. > > However that doesn't take into account all the Homemade envelopes. We got 100s of those in previous years, which were tradeable. And since they are account bound this year, folks are going to open up a lot of them. It's a lot harder to estimate how many of those we earn. I think it's reasonable to presume we might have gotten triple the Homemade as we did Divine, so that would generate close to enough dumplings to donate to Drooburt in year one just from our own efforts. Homemade envelopes don't exist this year. There are just little ones and divine ones. The homemade ones were between those 2 with regard to value. They had an 8s88c trophy in previous years. There's no such trophy this year. The little ones hold very little value. Certainly not a wealth of rare dumplings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheQuickFox.3826 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 They're 1G each now. Great. 500 gold for full achieve if you really want it, which will cost you almost EUR/USD 35 if you buy through gems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ze Dos Cavalos.6132 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Guys stop saying we dont need to finish this achieve this year, this achieve gets reset every year just like the Halloween one did. If you don't give 500 dumplings this year you will lose those ap forever because next year it will reset and start from 0 again.. 2016 Halloween we already had Drooburt asking for the candy corns and I maxed the ap, in 2017 Halloween the ap was there again to be done. So the Drooburt achieves can be repeated every year and every year you can get 25 ap from them. People that don't finish the achievement in these 2 weeks will forever lose those ap from Drooburt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malediktus.9250 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Ze Dos Cavalos.6132" said: > Guys stop saying we dont need to finish this achieve this year, this achieve gets reset every year just like the Halloween one did. > If you don't give 500 dumplings this year you will lose those ap forever because next year it will reset and start from 0 again.. > 2016 Halloween we already had Drooburt asking for the candy corns and I maxed the ap, in 2017 Halloween the ap was there again to be done. > So the Drooburt achieves can be repeated every year and every year you can get 25 ap from them. > > People that don't finish the achievement in these 2 weeks will forever lose those ap from Drooburt. This is wrong, only the 0 AP achievements should reset according to anets new holiday event policy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ze Dos Cavalos.6132 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Malediktus.9250" said: > This is wrong, only the 0 AP achievements should reset according to anets new holiday event policy So they changed the policy recently? The 2016 Halloween Drooburt was a special case then? Just saying what I experienced when I did the Drooburt Halloween achieve the last 2 years and got 25ap on each year He was also in Halloween 2015 asking for candy corns, so that's 3 years = 75 ap just from the Halloween Drooburt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Ze Dos Cavalos.6132" said: > > @"Malediktus.9250" said: > > This is wrong, only the 0 AP achievements should reset according to anets new holiday event policy > > So they changed the policy recently? > The 2016 Halloween Drooburt was a special case then? They changed it in 2017, so yes, the 2016 holidays are not included in that policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ze Dos Cavalos.6132 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Good didn't know about that lol, I still think they should do something about the dumplings tho, its just too hard to get them :anguished: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khisanth.2948 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Ze Dos Cavalos.6132" said: > So i open around 500 envelops (mix of rares and others) and only got 3 dumplings... > The event is only 2 weeks, with this drop rate is impossible for anyone to get enough dumplings from envelops. Everyone will buy from TP and the price will only go up. > If anet doesn't change the drop rate of the dumplings they wont get cheaper until next year this person opened 10,000 with 948% MF and that still only 474 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ze Dos Cavalos.6132 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Khisanth.2948" said: > this person opened 10,000 with 948% MF and that still only 474 This video shows what everyone is talking about, 10k envelopes doesn't give enough dumplings for 1 player to finish the achievement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightshade.5924 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Fleabite.7528" said: > The price for the dumplings is up 47% on day one, to 1g18s. There are less than 1,000 dumplings for sale on the entire AH at present. > > Given the absurd rarity and the high numbers required for the AP, there's little indication that costs for the completed achievement will drop below 500-600 gold. And plenty to suggest prices will worsen. Just goes to show that early speculation that prices for the dumplings would go down was just that. Can you say rare drop, anyone? It's only going to get worse, I totally do NOT fathom this move by Arena Net, because honestly if I HAD a stack of these things, I'd SELL THEM and say the heck w/ the achievement. Sure, I'd lose some cash to the "fees" at the AH.. but 50, 100, 200 gold quick? ANet needs to either seriously ramp UP the drop rate OR change what Drooburt is asking for. Smart players that have been saving these things could REALLY GET RICH. QUICK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 They can't really change the achi requirement at this point. They may not be willing to change the drop rate either (and they'd need to change it a lot to have any impact). Best solution? Introduce a _crafting recipe_. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProtoGunner.4953 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 It is not needed but typical Anet tactics with all the new festival stuff. Make it super rare drop rate and give a high AP, so people are forced to buy it from TP. I hate such shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ardenwolfe.8590 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Yeah . . . that video is proof enough. I think I've gotten one so far. One. And I'm not sinking that much gold for 25 APs. Have to agree with Proto. Obvious tactic is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faaris.8013 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 So yesterday I found out that I can buy 16 of those envelopes per day and account for 1 gold each, and sell them for 1g 60s on the TP. I now think that this whole thing is good, and nothing should be changed at all. Stop complaining, buy envelopes, you might get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kronos.3695 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I still don't understand why they didn't set the ghost to ask for all the foods instead of just one rare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightshade.5924 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Ze Dos Cavalos.6132" said: > > @"Khisanth.2948" said: > > this person opened 10,000 with 948% MF and that still only 474 > > > This video shows what everyone is talking about, 10k envelopes doesn't give enough dumplings for 1 player to finish the achievement. 10000 envelopes. The mind truly boggles. Right now homemade envelopes are selling for about 41 gold for 250. So to buy 10000 of them would cost around 1640 gold. The exchange rate is 1309 gems for 250 gold currently. So that's 8587 gems costing you about one hundred ten real world dollars... and you still cannot get the achievement, based on the current terrible drop rate. Seems to me I've heard of something like this somewhere else... something about 2000 (two thousand) real world dollars being spent for the completion of a game. Here we're talking over ONE HUNDRED... for one lousy set of achievement points. Hmmm. Maybe Arena Net REALLY NEEDS TO RETHINK THEIR FESTIVAL STRATEGY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightshade.5924 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 An addendum to my last post... I actually watched the video, and realized we were dealing in DIVINE lucky envelopes. Currently going for 1.48 GOLD at the AH. EACH. Now, at first, I thought that this guy might be part of a guild that was helping him out. But watching the vid makes me consider that whoever he is, he is one of the baddest to the bone, most dedicated GW players that I personally have ever seen. A full inventory of 32 space storage boxes kinda says it all. So anyway.... 1.48 gold per DLE. That's 14,800 gold for 10,000 DLE's. E bloody GAD. Which then comes to 77492 gems, which is about 960 dollars US. NOW we're looking at REAL money.. almost $1000 US... for an Achievement. My, my... where have I seen this sort of thing be a problem before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astralporing.1957 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Notice, that he's opening them at 948% MF, which is higher than most players will have. By far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShiningSquirrel.3751 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Don't get 2 excited about it. I donated 100 dumplings and got 0 credit, No achievement and no credit for donating any at all. :-( Opened a support ticket so will have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehipone.6812 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 They should make cooking recipes for all of these LNY foods and let the market sort itself out. The market has equilibrated given current conditions, but the video of the 10k envelopes yielding less than 500 dumplings suggests that the supply is pretty tight. With recipes, at least people could farm and bring more supply to meet demand. Example: Dumpling Filling - 1 cabbage, 1 red meat, 1 starch, 1 dumpling seasoning Dumpling Seasoning - 1 salt, 1 ginger, 1 Rice wine, 1 green onions Red Coloring - 1 milling basin, 1 Strawberry, 1 Raspberry, 1 milling stone Steamed Red Dumpling - 1 Ball of Dough, 1 Dumpling Filling, 1 Bottle of Sesame Ginger Sauce, 1 Red coloring The recipe is probably in the 10-15 silver range with current prices, and is just an example. But it would sink some materials that are in low demand, have a few things in there that are not completely trivial (garlic, sesame, raspberries), and give people some option to make more supply other than just buy off TP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ardenwolfe.8590 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 > @"Faaris.8013" said: > So yesterday I found out that I can buy 16 of those envelopes per day and account for 1 gold each, and sell them for 1g 60s on the TP. > > I now think that this whole thing is good, and nothing should be changed at all. Stop complaining, buy envelopes, you might get lucky! Most of us have known about this for years. Either way, over the last two days, I've gotten one. Again, one. And the video above shows Divine Envelopes. And even he didn't get enough to complete the achievement after ten-thousand opens. Both fly in the face of your opinion with experience and evidence. My apologies, but the drop rate is either bugged or intended. Again, either way, it needs to be adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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