Disproportional Drop rates for Super Rare Items in Zephyrite Supply Box

[squallaus.8321]

After opening a lot of Zephyrite Supply Box, it's quite clear that a lot of the items in the Super Rare category have extraordinarily lower drop rate (i.e. some of the infusions) than others in the same Super Rare category (chaos of lyssa, monocle). Its up to Anet to set what drop rates are for each of the items, but can't help but feel cheated that some of the Super Rare items are not in another category of their own, lets say "Extremely Rare".

 

A better representation of item drop rates by category in RNG chests would be nice so that players can better decide for themselves whether to try out said RNG chests, how many to try and won't feel cheated after trying them.

 

Here's a direct question for arenanet, is it intended that some items in the Super Rare category alot more rare than other items in the same category?

[Dante.1763]

Considering how *rare* they are from regular chests, id expect them to have the same drop rate. so around 0.001%

[Blocki.4931]

I've opened around 4000 boxes and didn't get a single rare drop so idk. It's probably just bad (or is it good?) luck in your case.

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Blocki.4931" said:

> I've opened around 4000 boxes and didn't get a single rare drop so idk. It's probably just bad (or is it good?) luck in your case.

 

If you open like 100k+ you will see the pattern. That why i'm calling the current categorization of items unfair and unrepresentative. I think i'm at 150k or more chests at this point. Either there is a bug in anet's code or they misrepresented the drop rate chances for some of the items.

[Ashen.2907]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > @"Blocki.4931" said:

> > I've opened around 4000 boxes and didn't get a single rare drop so idk. It's probably just bad (or is it good?) luck in your case.

>

> If you open like 100k+ you will see the pattern. That why i'm calling the current categorization of items unfair and unrepresentative. I think i'm at 150k or more chests at this point. Either there is a bug in anet's code or they misrepresented the drop rate chances for some of the items.

 

Did ANet ever actually state the, "drop rate chances?"

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Ashen.2907" said:

> Did ANet ever actually state the, "drop rate chances?"

 

No they didn't. I think in general companies don't publish drop chances. Im fine with that. I completely respect anet's right to set what they think are appropriate drop rates. However, they also categorized items drop chances as "Common", "Uncommon", "Rare" and "Super Rare". One would expect items from within a category have similar drop chances to each other. However, this did not turn out to be the case for "Super Rare" items where some of the super rare items appear to be disproportionately lower in drop rate than other super rare items, so much so that they probably deserve their own category, say "Extremely Rare". Most players wouldn't be able to tell because they wouldn't have a large sample size, but after I opened around 150,000 chests i can see the pattern. So I feel this is kinda unfair in how these items are all lumped together into "Super Rare" when some of them actually have much lower drop chances than others in the same category.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> Here's a direct question for arenanet, is it intended that some items in the Super Rare category alot more rare than other items in the same category?

 

You don't need them to answer, as it's clear from all sorts of other RNG boxes that the distinction isn't mathematical; _rare_ just means that the drops are roughly more common than _super rare_, and roughly less common than _uncommon_. I strongly recommend that people not draw any conclusions other than: it's probably not going to drop for you, although it would be a lot of fun if it did.

[Ashen.2907]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > @"Ashen.2907" said:

> > Did ANet ever actually state the, "drop rate chances?"

>

> No they didn't. I think in general companies don't publish drop chances. Im fine with that. I completely respect anet's right to set what they think are appropriate drop rates. However, they also categorized items drop chances as "Common", "Uncommon", "Rare" and "Super Rare". One would expect items from within a category have similar drop chances to each other. However, this did not turn out to be the case for "Super Rare" items where some of the super rare items appear to be disproportionately lower in drop rate than other super rare items, so much so that they probably deserve their own category, say "Extremely Rare". Most players wouldn't be able to tell because they wouldn't have a large sample size, but after I opened around 150,000 chests i can see the pattern. So I feel this is kinda unfair in how these items are all lumped together into "Super Rare" when some of them actually have much lower drop chances than others in the same category.

 

I see where you are coming from but, by definition, ANet did not misrepresent drop rate chances if they never said what those drop rate chances are.

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > Here's a direct question for arenanet, is it intended that some items in the Super Rare category alot more rare than other items in the same category?

>

> You don't need them to answer, as it's clear from all sorts of other RNG boxes that the distinction isn't mathematical; _rare_ just means that the drops are roughly more common than _super rare_, and roughly less common than _uncommon_. I strongly recommend that people not draw any conclusions other than: it's probably not going to drop for you, although it would be a lot of fun if it did.

 

No you dont understand. I am not argueing super rare are not less common than rare or uncommon. I am arguing certain items within the "Super Rare" category are much more rare than others in the same category.

 

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Ashen.2907" said:

> I see where you are coming from but, by definition, ANet did not misrepresent drop rate chances if they never said what those drop rate chances are.

 

If anet didn't have any categories assigned to the items i'd agree with you. But the fact that they categorise item drops as Common, Uncommon, Rare and Super Rare, they've assigned relative drop rates to the items. And I further argue that anet misrepresented the drop rates between Super Rare items by categorising them under the same umbrella despite them having vastly different drop rates to each other.

 

[Khisanth.2948]

Welcome to lying with statistics ... you probably won't enjoy your stay.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

But, they've always been like that, no matter the category. Not all Common items have the same, equal, drop rate. Not all Uncommon items, not all Rare, not all Super Rare. There's plenty of drop-rate data to check.

[Ok I Did It.2854]

I don't know why you would invest in these boxes to begin with, its clearly a ploy from Anet to strip mats out of the game, ( and its working ) the RNG in this game is shocking, and with no real numbers to work with, its a game you cannot win.

 

There are some numbers out there with 10k-50k boxes opened and the results are not encouraging.

[Ashen.2907]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > @"Ashen.2907" said:

> > I see where you are coming from but, by definition, ANet did not misrepresent drop rate chances if they never said what those drop rate chances are.

>

> If anet didn't have any categories assigned to the items i'd agree with you. But the fact that they categorise item drops as Common, Uncommon, Rare and Super Rare, they've assigned relative drop rates to the items. And I further argue that anet misrepresented the drop rates between Super Rare items by categorising them under the same umbrella despite them having vastly different drop rates to each other.

>

 

No.

 

If someone does not state something then they have not misrepresented that thing.

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Ashen.2907" said:

> > @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > > @"Ashen.2907" said:

> > > I see where you are coming from but, by definition, ANet did not misrepresent drop rate chances if they never said what those drop rate chances are.

> >

> > If anet didn't have any categories assigned to the items i'd agree with you. But the fact that they categorise item drops as Common, Uncommon, Rare and Super Rare, they've assigned relative drop rates to the items. And I further argue that anet misrepresented the drop rates between Super Rare items by categorising them under the same umbrella despite them having vastly different drop rates to each other.

> >

>

> No.

>

> If someone does not state something then they have not misrepresented that thing.

 

but they did state something as "Super Rare"

[Ashen.2907]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > @"Ashen.2907" said:

> > > @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > > > @"Ashen.2907" said:

> > > > I see where you are coming from but, by definition, ANet did not misrepresent drop rate chances if they never said what those drop rate chances are.

> > >

> > > If anet didn't have any categories assigned to the items i'd agree with you. But the fact that they categorise item drops as Common, Uncommon, Rare and Super Rare, they've assigned relative drop rates to the items. And I further argue that anet misrepresented the drop rates between Super Rare items by categorising them under the same umbrella despite them having vastly different drop rates to each other.

> > >

> >

> > No.

> >

> > If someone does not state something then they have not misrepresented that thing.

>

> but they did state something as "Super Rare"

 

So you are claiming that the things that they stated are super rare are not?

 

 

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Ashen.2907" said:

 

>

> So you are claiming that the things that they stated are super rare are not?

>

>

 

Some are super rare. Others Extremely Rare.

[Ashen.2907]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > @"Ashen.2907" said:

>

> >

> > So you are claiming that the things that they stated are super rare are not?

> >

> >

>

> Some are super rare. Others Extremely Rare.

 

Define the difference between your categories and show where ANet stated that they were using your definitions.

 

Something with a .00001 drop rate, and something with a .0001 drop rate are both super rare even if one has 10x the drop rate of the other.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"squallaus.8321" said:

> > > Here's a direct question for arenanet, is it intended that some items in the Super Rare category alot more rare than other items in the same category?

> >

> > You don't need them to answer, as it's clear from all sorts of other RNG boxes that the distinction isn't mathematical; _rare_ just means that the drops are roughly more common than _super rare_, and roughly less common than _uncommon_. I strongly recommend that people not draw any conclusions other than: it's probably not going to drop for you, although it would be a lot of fun if it did.

>

> No you dont understand. I am not argueing super rare are not less common than rare or uncommon. I am arguing certain items within the "Super Rare" category are much more rare than others in the same category.

>

 

I do understand. And that's not how it works in any other RNG container. Just because items are in the same "drop rate category" doesn't mean they have equal rates of appearing.

 

Even if they were equal, the drop rate of super rare items is so low we might never have enough data to figure out the true drop rates of the items. In the best known data source this season, one person opened up 50000 crates and got 4 super rare drops. Since there are over a dozen potential drops, we'd need to see data on close to 2 million boxes before we'd be able to have an idea of the actual rates.

 

> , it's quite clear that a lot of the items in the Super Rare category have extraordinarily lower drop rate (i.e. some of the infusions) than others in the same Super Rare category (chaos of lyssa, monocle)

What data are you using to determine this?

(I'm not saying it's incorrect. I'd like to be able to see the data so I can update my own tracking and attempt to calculate the odds.)

 

 

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Ashen.2907" said:

> Something with a .00001 drop rate, and something with a .0001 drop rate are both super rare even if one has 10x the drop rate of the other.

 

And i'm arguing they shouldn't be because the difference in drop rate is too big and anet should be honest about it and put those extra ordinarily low drop rate items to a separate category of their own and not just lump them into the same umbrella of Super Rare..

 

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

 

> I do understand. And that's not how it works in any other RNG container. Just because items are in the same "drop rate category" doesn't mean they have equal rates of appearing.

>

 

Maybe that's how Arenanet had been doing the RNG containers, but a normal person wouldn't know this unless they've actually experienced this. At face value, simply looking at the preview of RNG containers give the impression that items of the same category will have same or similar drop chances. Otherwise why would someone go to the trouble of categorizing them? Anet has 2 options, either don't categorize the items at all or be more honest and accurate with their categorization

 

 

> Even if they were equal, the drop rate of super rare items is so low we might never have enough data to figure out the true drop rates of the items. In the best known data source this season, one person opened up 50000 crates and got 4 super rare drops. Since there are over a dozen potential drops, we'd need to see data on close to 2 million boxes before we'd be able to have an idea of the actual rates.

>

> > , it's quite clear that a lot of the items in the Super Rare category have extraordinarily lower drop rate (i.e. some of the infusions) than others in the same Super Rare category (chaos of lyssa, monocle)

> What data are you using to determine this?

> (I'm not saying it's incorrect. I'd like to be able to see the data so I can update my own tracking and attempt to calculate the odds.)

>

>

 

 

And I literally said early in this post that I've opened atleast 3 times that, which is 150000 or more crates. There is a very distinct pattern to what was dropped Chaos of Lyssa being the more frequent (12), monocle being the 2nd most common (7), poly infusion (4), 2 winter's heart and 1 Aurillium. Quite clearly there's a pattern here. And I am arguing it is unfair and misleading to players to categorize all these items in the list as "Super Rare" when quite clearly some items are extremely more rare than others. Any person without prior knowledge would not know the different items within the same category will have very large difference in drop rate between them and simply take the description at face value because there is absolutely no description any where on the packs to say otherwise.

 

 

 

 

 

[Aerronix.9752]

> @"squallaus.8321" said:

> After opening a lot of Zephyrite Supply Box, it's quite clear that a lot of the items in the Super Rare category have extraordinarily lower drop rate (i.e. some of the infusions) than others in the same Super Rare category (chaos of lyssa, monocle). Its up to Anet to set what drop rates are for each of the items, but can't help but feel cheated that some of the Super Rare items are not in another category of their own, lets say "Extremely Rare".

>

> A better representation of item drop rates by category in RNG chests would be nice so that players can better decide for themselves whether to try out said RNG chests, how many to try and won't feel cheated after trying them.

>

> Here's a direct question for arenanet, is it intended that some items in the Super Rare category alot more rare than other items in the same category?

 

A couple of questions for my own interest and understanding your take on this.

1. How are you measuring this, example number of boxes open vs number of Super Rate category items over certain time?

2. Have you collected data from other players that would match the method of averages you are using to answer question 1?

3. If you have collected \ collated this data, could you share it in this feed back so to provide the vendor information that backs the statement taking it from feeling\opinion to product feedback with data supporting it to enable change?

[Rysdude.3824]

20k + boxes here and nothing. Just wanted to rucksack lol

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Aerronix.9752" said:

> A couple of questions for my own interest and understanding your take on this.

> 1. How are you measuring this, example number of boxes open vs number of Super Rate category items over certain time?

> 2. Have you collected data from other players that would match the method of averages you are using to answer question 1?

> 3. If you have collected \ collated this data, could you share it in this feed back so to provide the vendor information that backs the statement taking it from feeling\opinion to product feedback with data supporting it to enable change?

 

I've mentioned the drops already. Scroll up a little bit to check.

 

[squallaus.8321]

> @"Rysdude.3824" said:

> 20k + boxes here and nothing. Just wanted to rucksack lol

 

The drop rates are pretty low. But, don't get me wrong, I have no problem for Arenanet to set whatever drop rate they want for the items. But I do have a problem of them claiming a set of items is "Super Rare" but then it turns out the items inside that list of Super Rare can have vastly different drop rates between them. And they don't mention this any where.