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BLC exclusive item droprates warning


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Last tuesday I bought 10800 gems (135 USD) after the BLC updates, because i wanted that exclusive torch skin badly. I spent all my gems on blc keys and i think i have opened at least 150 chests and above, and i get 0 torch skin for me, not giving up i bought another two black lion golden keys with my 100 black lion statutes and still! 0 torch skin for me! I gave up finally.

 

So be careful guys if u r messing with the black lion chest. This time for me is the worst i have ever encountered, i suspect this time round the exclusive torch droprates was greatly lowered. By the time i realized I have just thrown my 135USD into the rubbish bin.

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> @"Coelho Nat.4697" said:

> Those blc drops are very random.

> In my opinion Anet should inform the % chance of each item as so to be fair to the players who purchase keys.

 

As if that would stop them from all but literally setting their money alight. Think of this as a lesson learned OP - it doesn't pay to gamble no matter how attractive the reward looks.

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> @"nosleepdemon.1368" said:

> As if that would stop them from all but literally setting their money alight. Think of this as a lesson learned OP - it doesn't pay to gamble no matter how attractive the reward looks.

I agree with you. I would rather buy directly the item I want.

However, since we all know Anet wont remove the blc random drops, at least they should be crystalline to all players and inform the % drop chance.

 

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When the Iron Beast Greatsword skin came out, I knew I wanted it (https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Iron_Beast_Greatsword). I used a couple of keys, but no luck.

 

6 month later it was available for purchase from the BL vendor for 60 statuettes.

 

As far as I am concerned, until proven otherwise, that is the pattern. So I figure by around October or November, the Torch will be available for purchase for 60 statuettes, and maybe I'll pick it up then.

 

In the meantime I will continue to farm my keys each week, and open chests when they have something I want (like a mount skin I would use), and the statuettes will pile up as I go.

 

I have nothing against buying gems or purchasing anything off the Gem Store...but I will never purchase a BL Chest Key, not even using gems purchased with gold.

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> @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> When the Iron Beast Greatsword skin came out, I knew I wanted it (https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Iron_Beast_Greatsword). I used a couple of keys, but no luck.

>

> 6 month later it was available for purchase from the BL vendor for 60 statuettes.

>

> As far as I am concerned, until proven otherwise, that is the pattern. So I figure by around October or November, the Torch will be available for purchase for 60 statuettes, and maybe I'll pick it up then.

>

> In the meantime I will continue to farm my keys each week, and open chests when they have something I want (like a mount skin I would use), and the statuettes will pile up as I go.

>

> I have nothing against buying gems or purchasing anything off the Gem Store...but I will never purchase a BL Chest Key, not even using gems purchased with gold.

 

Same here. I save up keys obtained in-game but I will never buy them, and when I do use them it often acts as a reminder of _why_ I don't buy them.

 

I have had times when I've gotten lucky and got the item I wanted within 20 or so keys, but there's been other times when I've had horrible luck. Recently for example I really wanted the whale glider and I thought I had a decent chance of getting it because there's been nothing I wanted for a while so I had about 40 keys saved up. I used all of those and all the other keys I could get in-game before it was removed (just over 50 in total) and came away with no glider and considerably fewer 'uncommon' drops of all kinds than I'd normally expect. It was disappointing doing that with free keys, it would be even worse if I'd wasted real money on them.

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Personally I'd like to see BL chests introduce the same mechanic you have with the Gift of Aurene in the Mistborn chests. Every x keys gives you a choice of item per BL reward rotation. If that number is 50...100 keys so be it, at least you know you'll get what you want within that amount of keys. Or, as has been previously mentioned, put all the decent rewards in the Statuette vendor at some point as opening 50/100 chests you'll have the statuettes free anyway.

 

I don't personally gamble in games with real world currency but have a store of earned keys waiting for that special prize. I did get lucky not long ago with a premium mount box on my 2nd of 5 spent keys but for every one of me there's one unlucky soul at least.

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> @"nosleepdemon.1368" said:

> > @"Coelho Nat.4697" said:

> > Those blc drops are very random.

> > In my opinion Anet should inform the % chance of each item as so to be fair to the players who purchase keys.

>

> As if that would stop them from all but literally setting their money alight. Think of this as a lesson learned OP - it doesn't pay to gamble no matter how attractive the reward looks.

 

Gamble 101 : The more attractive the reward, the lower you can put the winrate to suck more money from gamblers.

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If it's part of your disposable income does it really matter what you spend it on? That's the purpose of having some of your income disposable, to spend it on what ever you want. I always find I end up with enough other stuff left over to just sell on the TP and make a decent amount of gold, so even if I don't get what I want I get gold out of it, and statuettes, which sit around doing nothing. Now if I could just do something with the Mini Eggs(amongst the other items I do not use or need) besides trashing since I have all of those available...

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> @"Zaklex.6308" said:

> If it's part of your disposable income does it really matter what you spend it on? That's the purpose of having some of your income disposable, to spend it on what ever you want. I always find I end up with enough other stuff left over to just sell on the TP and make a decent amount of gold, so even if I don't get what I want I get gold out of it, and statuettes, which sit around doing nothing. Now if I could just do something with the Mini Eggs(amongst the other items I do not use or need) besides trashing since I have all of those available...

 

Shame you cant say..sell them to a merchant for statuettes or something. I have so so many misc black lion items i wont ever use them, and hell some i dont use period that i wish i could do something with.

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I am not sure of all the variables used outside of system time on their server that creates their RNG. But my personal Tin Foil Hat theory is that if I feel that I'm not getting the loot desired using a specific character then I switch to a different character and open the chest with them. I have typically get what I am looking for.

 

On a side note you should have saved your statues because within 6 months the torch will be made available for purchase using them.

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> @"Coelho Nat.4697" said:

> > @"nosleepdemon.1368" said:

> > As if that would stop them from all but literally setting their money alight. Think of this as a lesson learned OP - it doesn't pay to gamble no matter how attractive the reward looks.

> I agree with you. I would rather buy directly the item I want.

> However, since we all know Anet wont remove the blc random drops, at least they should be crystalline to all players and inform the % drop chance.

>

 

Even if they told you the drop chance, it wouldn't matter. How many people do you think anyone actually KNOWS how to calculate the probability they would get an item if given the drop rate? The point is, it's not many and people would not purchase because they are not knowledgeable about how this probability works.

 

In otherwords, this drop rate would be most likely be misinterpreted and confuse people. It wouldn't be crystalline at all as long as people don't know how to calculate probabilities.

 

The fact that people go into BLC's expecting something to drop within X chests already tells you that any known drop rate is irrelevant to these people.

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Well ... that's what happens if you gamble.

I myself never buy keys. I have 21 or so from just doing my remaining chars to level 80 (normal personal story and stuff and map completion) and not even using a "key runner" character.

 

I open chests only once or twice after new content gets added. Never been lucky. And never been in the mood to buy keys to try the huge gambling. (I'd prefer if there wre mere statuetts to safely get some stuff. But it seems they don't even have the same stuff constantly available there. So I just ignore it.)

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> @"Teratus.2859" said:

> 135 USD.. on Black Lion Keys...

>

> I seriously hope you're joking, I love Gw2 and I want the game to make money but that is just insane man.

 

Hey if its disposable income and doesnt actually put a persons lively hood at risk why judge where they spend their money? They could have easily as dropped more than that on a single W40k model which alot of people think is silly, or even legos, maybe pkmn/magic/yugioh cards..

 

 

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