[Merged] Black Lion Chests are awful

[Turkeyspit.3965]

> @"Kal Spiro.9745" said:

> > @"Critical Lag.9075" said:

> > I really like the new backpack/glider combo in the chests. I know they are RNG and knew what I was in for. I opened 20 chests and didn't get A SINGLE EXTRA SLOT ROLL. This is not the first time it happened, it doesn't feel uncommon but at least rare. I think there should a guaranteed extra slot roll after like 5 chests without success(a pity timer if you will).

> >

> > It's the list time I fell for this. I bought all my keys with gold this time but seeing how terrible it turned out I won't be buying any gems soon or ever at all.

> >

> > /rant

> >

> >

>

> That's unfortunate that RNGesus denied you the thing you wanted with a measly 20 key attempt.

> I didn't have any interest in either the glider/backpack, nor the Hydra staff. I got them both from the 5 keys I received from the War Eternal week three chest.

>

> The moral of the story is, RNG is RNG

 

Funny enough, I also got 5 keys from the War Eternal pack, but I'm holding on to them for the NEXT BL chest release, as neither the hydra staff nor the new backpack/glider of any interest to me. Kinda wished I would have had 5 more chances at the hummingbird, but whatcha gonna do :lol:

[mindcircus.1506]

> @"Critical Lag.9075" said:

> I really like the new backpack/glider combo in the chests. I know they are RNG and knew what I was in for. I opened 20 chests and didn't get A SINGLE EXTRA SLOT ROLL.

>

Why do some many of these posts start with "I know it's RNG..." and then go on to whine?

If you knew it was RNG....if you understood what that really meant.... this post would not exist.

 

 

[AlexxxDelta.1806]

> @"Critical Lag.9075" said:

> I know they are RNG and knew what I was in for.

 

The rest of your post contradicts this.

 

 

 

> @"Dawdler.8521" said:

> The house always wins.

 

This comment sums it up.

[AlexxxDelta.1806]

Keep spending and you 'll eventually get something either from blind luck or from statuettes. And that exciting moment of pride and accomplishment will ensure you will keep spending the next time you see a BLC shiny you want. Again and again and the cycle continues. Just remember to keep spending, that's the most important part.

 

....Or don't gamble your money away, that's an option too.

[Blockhead Magee.3092]

Loot boxes count on people gambling their money away.

[Critical Lag.9075]

> @"mindcircus.1506" said:

> > @"Critical Lag.9075" said:

> > I really like the new backpack/glider combo in the chests. I know they are RNG and knew what I was in for. I opened 20 chests and didn't get A SINGLE EXTRA SLOT ROLL.

> >

> Why do some many of these posts start with "I know it's RNG..." and then go on to whine?

> If you knew it was RNG....if you understood what that really meant.... this post would not exist.

>

>

 

Just wanted to vent a little about my bad luck. Nothing more. I wasn't even mad that I didn't get the skin, just a bit that I didn't even get a single extra slot roll. Already made that gold back so whatever. I'll just wait half a year or so and buy it with statuettes when it's finally added to the merchant.

[Goettel.4389]

RNG is as RNG does.

[Cragga the Eighty Third.60]

I wasn't especially interested in the contents of this chest, but blew six or seven keys just for fun and on the off chance of the glider. (Did not get it, but got the hydra staff, which I can't imagine ever using, and the storm gloves from a guaranteed armor unlock, so my luck was good.)

 

The Teal Mist thing is sort of fun...a little more interactive than the usual vendor trash. ^^ (For those who haven't tried it, it is a consumable power up that gives you a chance to have teal petals drop, which you can either sell to the vendor, or combine 12 to get a teal blossom, which you can sell to the vendor for a little over one gold. It feels as if there ought to be something you can do with it besides selling to the vendor, but it does not seem mystic-forgeable or anything.

 

Anyway, we've all been down the RNG "OMG they must have lowered the odds" bad luck road from time to time. Like anything else, if it hurts more than it's fun, stop doing it.

[Daishi.6027]

Don’t bother. Pay to get as many statuettes for what you will want, and wait.

 

Gambling is unhealthy and tries to trap you in the fallacy of “maybe the next one!”, and it’s preys upon your investment to a mmo.

 

Everything eventually becomes available for about 60. Maybe one day we’ll have legislation that caps your spending before you get exactly what you want, but until then play the system as best as possible

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Critical Lag.9075" said:

> I opened 20 chests and didn't get A SINGLE EXTRA SLOT ROLL.

Your expectations steered you wrong.

 

Based on collating drop data from a few thousand BL chests, the chances of uncommon or better is around 10%. While that would be an average of 2 extra slot rolls every 20 keys, there's no guarantee. [There's actually over a 12% chance of your result (not a single uncommon or better)](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+20+trials,+less+than+1+successes).

 

Even [opening fifty chests, five people in a thousand still won't see an uncommon or better](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+50+trials,+less+than+1+successes).

 

Do not open BL chests with any expectations at all. Buy them for the entertainment value of anticipating winning big.

 

[holodoc.5748]

_"Stay away from the high-stakes roulette. It's rigged."_

- Zalambur, Guild Wars 2

[Tyncale.1629]

I used my weekly "keyrunner" key on an Alt account and got the Hummingbird: so I figured, "hey, that went well, maybe buy 20 keys on my Main account for a change and try again?" Well, I do not think I have to explain what happened next so now I am firmly on "remember never to buy BL keys" again. :) Luckily I could pay them with gold, so the loss was bearable.

[IndigoSundown.5419]

> @"Critical Lag.9075" said:

> I think there should a guaranteed extra slot roll after like 5 chests without success(a pity timer if you will).

 

That's what Statuettes are, with the added "bonus" that you may have to wait months before the item you want shows up on the Statuette Vendor.

[Rattengeist.8165]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"The Angle of Deth.2985" said:

> >

> > Well you know I would have bought the items I wanted out right, but they weren't offered that way.

> They are, just not when they are first released.

>

> > Maybe if Anet would offer the items like they do with the mount licenses...you pay a bit extra to get exactly what you want rather than deal with RNG.

> You can do that, just not when they are first released.

>

>

Which items got released in the gem shop for direct purchase after being a BLC drop? Do you have any examples and possibily info how many years it took? I just looked into the hydra staff for example, according to the wiki it was first released at Halloween '17 as a BLC drop, then again during PoF release as a BLC drop, then at some point sold for statuettes and now it's back as a BLC drop. There is no mention of it ever being in the gem shop for direct purchase yet

[Kal Spiro.9745]

> @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> > @"Kal Spiro.9745" said:

> > > @"Critical Lag.9075" said:

> > > I really like the new backpack/glider combo in the chests. I know they are RNG and knew what I was in for. I opened 20 chests and didn't get A SINGLE EXTRA SLOT ROLL. This is not the first time it happened, it doesn't feel uncommon but at least rare. I think there should a guaranteed extra slot roll after like 5 chests without success(a pity timer if you will).

> > >

> > > It's the list time I fell for this. I bought all my keys with gold this time but seeing how terrible it turned out I won't be buying any gems soon or ever at all.

> > >

> > > /rant

> > >

> > >

> >

> > That's unfortunate that RNGesus denied you the thing you wanted with a measly 20 key attempt.

> > I didn't have any interest in either the glider/backpack, nor the Hydra staff. I got them both from the 5 keys I received from the War Eternal week three chest.

> >

> > The moral of the story is, RNG is RNG

>

> Funny enough, I also got 5 keys from the War Eternal pack, but I'm holding on to them for the NEXT BL chest release, as neither the hydra staff nor the new backpack/glider of any interest to me. Kinda wished I would have had 5 more chances at the hummingbird, but whatcha gonna do :lol:

 

I used them because I liked the Rare home instance mat possibilities, and even though I knew I wouldn't get them, I had to try.

[Aurelian Omenkind.2470]

The only reason I take advantage of BL keys now is for the statuette. I figure *eventually* I’ll be able to get an unbreakable tool or an outfit or glider skin or a harvesting node for my home instance. Everything else is either fluff or bonus. Gotta say, tho, the 1 gold junk coin is a major letdown.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

tl;dr Since its introduction 19 months ago, the Hydra Staff has appears twice randomly (in the BL chest), once for a fixed price of statuettes, and once for market price as an option in a container. It remains permanently available in that container (the BL Exclusives Chest), although current market price makes it unrealistic as an option currently.

 

 

> @"Rattengeist.8165" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"The Angle of Deth.2985" said:

> > >

> > > Well you know I would have bought the items I wanted out right, but they weren't offered that way.

> > They are, just not when they are first released.

> >

> > > Maybe if Anet would offer the items like they do with the mount licenses...you pay a bit extra to get exactly what you want rather than deal with RNG.

> > You can do that, just not when they are first released.

> >

> >

> Which items got released in the gem shop for direct purchase after being a BLC drop? Do you have any examples and possibily info how many years it took? I just looked into the hydra staff for example, according to the wiki it was first released at Halloween '17 as a BLC drop, then again during PoF release as a BLC drop, then at some point sold for statuettes and now it's back as a BLC drop. There is no mention of it ever being in the gem shop for direct purchase yet

 

 

I never said it was in the gem shop. I said it could be purchased. It was made available to BL Exclusives Chest, which could be bought on the TP and allows a choice of many account-bound skins, all of which were originally BL drops. In fact, you can still buy one on the TP (I don't recommend it, because it's currently outrageously expensive). Depending on when you buy, they can be had for as low as 300 gold or less. During peak availability, the instant-buy price goes as low as 450-500 gold.

 

To take your example of the hydra staff:

* BL Exclusives Chest Introduced: August 2017 (obviously, can't include Hydra staff)

* Initial BL Chest release: October 2017†

* BL Statuettes Introduced: January 2018 (does not include Hydra Staff)

* Added to Statuettes: March 2018†

* Added to BL Exclusives Chest August 2018† (permanently available as an option, although the chest supply declines)

* Added to BL Chest: May 2019†

 

† staff made available

 

[Danikat.8537]

> @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> Just going to copy/pasta myself from another thread posted today:

>

> > @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> > Yesterday I bought the Iron Beast Greatsword (https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Iron_Beast_Greatsword) from the BL Statuette vendor. It was originally released in December 2018 as a BL exclusive uncommon drop. I opened a few chests back then, hoping to get it, but to no avail.

> >

> > Now about 5 months later, I was able to buy it from a vendor for 60 BL statuettes.

> >

> > This means nothing, other than if this item showed up at the statuette vendor 5 months after release, it's possible that this new back piece / glider will also become available at the vendor after a similar length of time passes. So keep opening chests, either from purchased keys or map completion / weekly toon, save up the statuettes, and try to be patient :sunglasses:

 

I did the same with the branded mini pack. I tried to get it when it was a random drop (can't remember how many keys I used, but it was more than I wanted to use and not enough) and then got it today with statuettes.

 

Buying keys to get statuettes to get an item you want is almost certainly not worth it because it's always going to be hugely expensive. I'm reluctant to say it's never worth it because worth is subjective and there may well be people out there who would pay literally anything for some of these items. But for example the Designer Hoodie Clothing Outfit costs 20 statuettes which (if you assume 1 per key, which is the base rate) works out at 605g right now (and that's if you buy 25 keys for 2,100 gems and only count the cost of 20 of them, buying exactly 20 keys makes it 651g). Meanwhile the highest buy order on the tonic is 380g.

 

If I'd paid for keys that branded mini pack would have cost me 5,040 gems - £53.55 or 1,827g. I collect mini pets, I think the branded mounts look amazing, and I've been wanting more branded minis for a long time, but even for me that's extremely expensive. The real money price is out of the question. The gold price works out at 365g each, and I would pay that for a mini but not via keys because I refuse to buy keys, even with gold because I doubt Anet tracks where the gems came from when looking at key sales. And it would have to be over a very long time because it takes me months to get that much gold. But if I'm using keys I got free while playing the game the cost is negligible because I didn't have to actually spend anything, or do anything I wouldn't normally do to get them. (Same reason I'm more willing to spend gold - I get it while playing the game and I'd play either way...that and it has fewer uses than real money.)

 

Which doesn't make this system ok - if you want _an item_ from black lion chests and you're willing to farm keys regularly whilst hoping you will have time to get enough before it hits the statuette vendor and won't have to wait so long it's no longer worth it for you then it's an option. If you want more than a very occasional item from the statuettes (either one which was in chests or one which has never been available another way or hasn't been available in years) then it's almost certainly going to come down to having to choose ones to get and ones to miss, or buying a lot of keys. Ultimately it still comes down to pushing players to spend more than they would normally want to for items, it's just a more convoluted method, trading RNG for multiple time-gates and unpredictable availability.

 

But at this point I think all we can do is vote with our wallets. I've never bought black lion keys but a while ago I also stopped going out of my way to get any mini pets which involve both the gem store and RNG. I don't count them in the ones I'm collecting and won't go out of my way to get them. If, like today, I find I have enough statuettes/keys then that's fine, but I won't make a special effort and certainly won't spend money on them. It might not sound like much but for me that's a big change. And, unfortunately for Anet, even though I'm telling myself it doesn't affect my collection since those ones are not included I've found it makes me a lot less motivated to go after the others, meaning I'm less likely to spend real money on other gem store minis unless I really like them.

[Trise.2865]

Rare drops are rare. Don't like it? don't gamble.

 

Someday they'll get the hint.

[sephiroth.4217]

> @"lokh.2695" said:

> Don't gamble if you can't handle loss.

 

He said on a childrens game...

 

Gambling shouldnt exist in games if it involves real life money.

Game companies shouldn't be able to monetise off kids using adult addictions, it also encourages gambling in our youth.

[Samnang.1879]

i used 3 keys and got the glider :rip:

 

i wanted to not get it until 20keys later so i can keep opening them, but now i have like 25 keys left... and have to wait for the next thing i want... :rip:

[Obtena.7952]

I don't get the complaint ... how did you not know its based on chance? These threads are just silly.

 

 

[Zaklex.6308]

> @"Chaba.5410" said:

> Stop buying keys. Stop making RNG profitable. If you want to make purchases to support the game, only buy items, not chances at an item.

 

You do know that the cost per key is actually only $1.05/ea. right, and for a company like ArenaNet it's not just for profit, it's to keep the company running and allowing them to make additional content...as sales from the Gem Shop are put towards those purposes(which includes but is not limited to, staff salary, benefits, development costs, art costs, VA costs, etc., etc., etc..). So if you want them to stop working on the game, you have to not only buy keys but items directly, one or the other is not going to be sufficient to support GW2(and don't compare it to Fortnight, 2 entirely different games with different development costs).

[KazukoHimura.2314]

I'm the opposite it seems. I don't want much out of the chests. Usually just the statuettes and guaranteed items. Yet probably in about 1/7 chests, it spits out one of the new, account-bound items, or a skin that sells for gold in double to triple digits. I haven't bought keys in a long time, I get mine from keyfarm and map complete.

[Tommo Chocolate.5870]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Tommo Chocolate.5870" said:

> > No one can tell you how many chests you'll have to open to get the back piece you want, and regardless of how many chests you open, you might never get it - that's the nature of RNG. Added to that, ANet doesn't publish the drop rates, so we can't even calculate your probability of getting it if you open a given number of chests (and even if we could, it would only be a probability - there'd be no guarantee).

> As worded, that's technically true. On a practical basis, you can calculate that there's e.g. 100 million-to-one odds, which would be fine for anyone playing this game. (Well, except for the costs.)

 

Sure, you can estimate the drop rates if you have enough data - I take it that's what you mean? My stats is too rusty to remember how to work out what "enough data" means, but if the odds really are of the order of 100 million-to-one, it's going to be a lot.