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Is buying ToT bags and opening them worthless ?


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The exotic weapon drop rate is a lot lower in compare to last years at least this is my impression.

The new purple infusion on the other hand has a high drop rate

 

I opened around 5k I got out of it 1 exotic weapon , 1 skin and 2 purple infusions.

 

For last year it was around 12k bags and 10-12 exotics and a lot of other junk.

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If you plan to open bag by *tens of thousands* during the event, buying bags is reasonable.

 

This is because there's a tiny chance of the expensive infusions pushing up the price of the bags. If you open a few thousand bags you're unlikely to get any if the *expensive* stuff, ans as long as you don't, the contents of the bag sell for less than the bag.

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> @"Lord of the Fire.6870" said:

> The exotic weapon drop rate is a lot lower in compare to last years at least this is my impression.

> The new purple infusion on the other hand has a high drop rate

>

> I opened around 5k I got out of it 1 exotic weapon , 1 skin and 2 purple infusions.

>

> For last year it was around 12k bags and 10-12 exotics and a lot of other junk.

 

Opened 4k of them got no weapons or infusions just basic loot of candy mats

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As a general rule, if coin is your primary goal, you should always sell bags: ToTs, Wintersday Gifts, Unidentified Gear, Lucky Envelopes, any of them.

 

The price of the bags on the TP is a combination of the actual value of the contents (averaged over _everyone_ who opens them), inflated a little or a lot because of people's willingness to take a chance of getting lucky. For example, it's not unusual for the contents to be worth 4s on average while the bags sell for 5s, because enough folks are willing to pay a premium for the chance of a 100g or 1000g drop.

 

As you can see from various threads, it's not unusual for top farmers to pull in 800 bags per hour. Let's call it 500 to make the math easier and to account for many who aren't optimizing their run. In a 20-person squad, that 10k bags _per hour_. With 20 squads in LFG most of the day, that's 200k bags _per hour_. If an infusion drops even 1x in 200k bags, we'd be seeing quite a few, which would drive prices down on the super rare loot, and make the bags less appealing, driving prices closer to the average value of the contents.

 

Or with fewer words: it's because the drop rates are terrible that the rare items are valuable and that bags sell for a premium.

Terrible drop rates are bad for openers, but great for sellers.

 

Or to phrase it in practical terms: don't open.

* Sell the bags at as high a price as you can get.

* Use the funds to purchase what you want.

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I think it's unlikely most people in the Labyrinth are even managing 500 bags an hour. I know there's a topic about how to get 850+ but as people pointed out in that topic it will only work for a few people in each squad.

 

Based on my own experience and discussions in the Labyrinth I think for people doing casual farming - on a map where they open ALL doors, stopping to mine candy corn and hack pumpkins, helping other players when they go down at the expense of your own loot (especially on the doors with lots of enemies) etc. 250 an hour is more common. Average that with the people who are on more focused farming maps, but don't know what they're doing, and the ones who have planned for every little detail and I'd say probably about 300-400 is the average across all players. Although if we're also talking about how many bags enter the economy in total it would be slightly higher because the hardcore farmers probably spend more time farming.

 

But anyway, whatever the actual numbers are it's extremely unlikely you'll make a profit by buying bags, opening them and selling the contents. Even opening your own bags is likely to lose you money vs. selling them. It's the same ideas as any RNG bag - if you want one specific drop (or even a few specific drops) you're better off selling them and buying the thing you want. If you'd be happy with anything in them or you enjoy the idea of opening them and imagining you might get something good then open them.

 

(Unless of course one day it reaches the point where so many people are selling them instead of opening them that the bags aren't selling and the drops are so rare and expensive you'd need to sell thousands of bags to get one, then it might become worthwhile to open them yourself instead. But that would be in a world where no one plays the lottery either.)

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I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

1x The Cure

1x Soul Conductor

1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

 

The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

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> @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

> 1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

> 1x The Cure

> 1x Soul Conductor

> 1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

> 1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

>

> The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

 

You've been extremely lucky then.

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> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

> > 1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

> > 1x The Cure

> > 1x Soul Conductor

> > 1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

> > 1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> >

> > The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

>

> You've been extremely lucky then.

 

Ive opened just over 5k bags, and ive gotten:

 

x2 Mini Zuzu

x2 Grey infusions

x1 Green Undulating

x1 Purple Undulating

x1 Orange Undulating

x1 the Cure

x1 Touch of Madness

x2 Sould Conductor

x1 Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

x3 devil dog/hellhound

x1 Charles the Hellfire

x1 Pumpkin Jack

x1 Pumpkin Smasher

x3 Revenge

x1 Phospholuminecesnt Infusion

x1 Gift of Spiders

 

Plus all the minor loot along with it, so very lucky i think?

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> @"Dante.1763" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > > I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

> > > 1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

> > > 1x The Cure

> > > 1x Soul Conductor

> > > 1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

> > > 1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> > >

> > > The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

> >

> > You've been extremely lucky then.

>

> Ive opened just over 5k bags, and ive gotten:

>

> x2 Mini Zuzu

> x2 Grey infusions

> x1 Green Undulating

> x1 Purple Undulating

> x1 Orange Undulating

> x1 the Cure

> x1 Touch of Madness

> x2 Sould Conductor

> x1 Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> x3 devil dog/hellhound

> x1 Charles the Hellfire

> x1 Pumpkin Jack

> x1 Pumpkin Smasher

> x3 Revenge

> x1 Phospholuminecesnt Infusion

> x1 Gift of Spiders

>

> Plus all the minor loot along with it, so very lucky i think?

 

I think so.

You can compare with @"Silveress.5197" data

[here](https://gw2.silveress.ie/stats_viewer?report=eyJzZWxlY3RlZElEIjozNjAzOCzJE0FjdGl2aXR5IjoiT3BlbmluZyIsImZpbHRlciI6W10sImZvbGRlZCI6eyJjb2xfMCI6ZmFsc2UsxQ4xzQ4yIjp0cnXHDTPNGzTNDjXMKTbMDTfMDTjMDTnMDTEwzQ4xxg59fQ==) (the math is done by your computer, so it takes longer than expected to load; interface is still a bit wonky)

 

Out of data for 76k bags so far:

* 12 mini dogs

* 4 mini hellfires

* 2 gray polysat

* 3 purple polysat

* 2 red polysat

* 1 touch of madness

* 2 cures

 

I don't see any ember or phospho lumi infusions.

 

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> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Dante.1763" said:

> > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > > @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > > > I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

> > > > 1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

> > > > 1x The Cure

> > > > 1x Soul Conductor

> > > > 1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

> > > > 1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> > > >

> > > > The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

> > >

> > > You've been extremely lucky then.

> >

> > Ive opened just over 5k bags, and ive gotten:

> >

> > x2 Mini Zuzu

> > x2 Grey infusions

> > x1 Green Undulating

> > x1 Purple Undulating

> > x1 Orange Undulating

> > x1 the Cure

> > x1 Touch of Madness

> > x2 Sould Conductor

> > x1 Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> > x3 devil dog/hellhound

> > x1 Charles the Hellfire

> > x1 Pumpkin Jack

> > x1 Pumpkin Smasher

> > x3 Revenge

> > x1 Phospholuminecesnt Infusion

> > x1 Gift of Spiders

> >

> > Plus all the minor loot along with it, so very lucky i think?

>

> I think so.

> You can compare with @"Silveress.5197" data

> [here](https://gw2.silveress.ie/stats_viewer?report=eyJzZWxlY3RlZElEIjozNjAzOCzJE0FjdGl2aXR5IjoiT3BlbmluZyIsImZpbHRlciI6W10sImZvbGRlZCI6eyJjb2xfMCI6ZmFsc2UsxQ4xzQ4yIjp0cnXHDTPNGzTNDjXMKTbMDTfMDTjMDTnMDTEwzQ4xxg59fQ==) (the math is done by your computer, so it takes longer than expected to load; interface is still a bit wonky)

>

> Out of data for 76k bags so far:

> * 12 mini dogs

> * 4 mini hellfires

> * 2 gray polysat

> * 3 purple polysat

> * 2 red polysat

> * 1 touch of madness

> * 2 cures

>

> I don't see any ember or phospho lumi infusions.

>

 

Im not surprised at all about the drop rates, and id submit my own info but that website is terribly awkward to use xD

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> @"Dante.1763" said:

> id submit my own info but that website is terribly awkward to use xD

 

It's set up so that you input your API key first and then the site (plus the game) figures out what dropped for you. That makes the data super reliable, something that is a problem for the manual data posted in the past (and especially on the wiki).

Silveress told me they are working on improving the interface and documentation, so by Wintersday, I expect it will feel more usable to more people.

 

If you want to learn how to manage it more easily, you can contact Silveress in game. They walked me through another tool on their site yesterday, via Discord chat.

(I might be able to help, but I haven't used the input tool, because I'm not yet opening bags.)

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> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Dante.1763" said:

> > id submit my own info but that website is terribly awkward to use xD

>

> It's set up so that you input your API key first and then the site (plus the game) figures out what dropped for you. That makes the data super reliable, something that is a problem for the manual data posted in the past (and especially on the wiki).

> Silveress told me they are working on improving the interface and documentation, so by Wintersday, I expect it will feel more usable to more people.

>

> If you want to learn how to manage it more easily, you can contact Silveress in game. They walked me through another tool on their site yesterday, via Discord chat.

> (I might be able to help, but I haven't used the input tool, because I'm not yet opening bags.)

 

Ohhh very nice! well, let me see if i can get it to work.

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> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

> > 1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

> > 1x The Cure

> > 1x Soul Conductor

> > 1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

> > 1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> >

> > The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

>

> You've been extremely lucky then.

Maybe, yet it doesn't seem very lucky. If I'd sold the 1500 ToT bags @ ~6sp each, that would be ~90 gold.. However, the value of those 5 rare items is under 30g combined (~10g for poly from the necklace, ~8g for The Cure, ~3g for Soul Conductor, ~23s for the mini, ~6g for the brew) . Obviously some of the common mats and consumables I obtained could also be sold for some additional gold, but I doubt they'd be worth anywhere close to 60g. Selling the bags and then buying whatever you want with the gold is definitely the way to go.

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> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Dante.1763" said:

> > Ohhh very nice! well, let me see if i can get it to work.

> Start here: https://gw2.silveress.ie/stats_collection

> I think it's mostly self-explanatory:

> * Enter API key

> * Choose opening containers

> * Tell it to start

> * Open stuff

> * Tell it to stop.

> * Let the site do its thing

> * Profit?

>

 

Saddly, the website..is awfully...laggy to use. the first test i did worked fine, but the second one an actual mass opening never read that i opened the bags. hopefully they get the kinks worked out because it does seem like a good idea.

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> @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > > I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

> > > 1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

> > > 1x The Cure

> > > 1x Soul Conductor

> > > 1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

> > > 1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> > >

> > > The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

> >

> > You've been extremely lucky then.

> Maybe, yet it doesn't seem very lucky. If I'd sold the 1500 ToT bags @ ~6sp each, that would be ~90 gold.. However, the value of those 5 rare items is under 30g combined (~10g for poly from the necklace, ~8g for The Cure, ~3g for Soul Conductor, ~23s for the mini, ~6g for the brew) . Obviously some of the common mats and consumables I obtained could also be sold for some additional gold, but I doubt they'd be worth anywhere close to 60g. Selling the bags and then buying whatever you want with the gold is definitely the way to go.

 

Definitely needs to include the candy corn. A stack is ~70s which is like 3 of the mini.

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I've opened all the bags I've farmed but that's because this is my first Halloween in GW2 and I need the Candy Corn. I figure I must have opened 1500bags or so since Tuesday, as I don't spend more than an hour at a time running Lab, but of those bags, as well as the large bags from completing dailies, I've so far received:

 

1 x Gift of Spiders

1 x Gift of Souls

1x Pumpkin Smasher

1x Vassago

1x Mini Charles the the Hellfire Skeleton

3x Polysaturating Reverberating Infusion (Red)

 

Given the bags sell for about 5-7 silver, just selling one of those Infusions is more of a profit than if I had sold all the bags farmed so far.

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> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > > @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > > > @"Kalendraf.9521" said:

> > > > I've opened about 1500 bags so far. Out of those, the only notable rare drops I've gotten are these:

> > > > 1x Oontz's Necklace of the Cat

> > > > 1x The Cure

> > > > 1x Soul Conductor

> > > > 1x Mini Zuzu, Cat of Darkness

> > > > 1x Unopened Endless Bottle of Batwing Brew

> > > >

> > > > The rest has all been cheap common/uncommon stuff. Aside from any needed for daily opening, I'm probably going to sell all the remaining ToT bags I get from here on

> > >

> > > You've been extremely lucky then.

> > Maybe, yet it doesn't seem very lucky. If I'd sold the 1500 ToT bags @ ~6sp each, that would be ~90 gold.. However, the value of those 5 rare items is under 30g combined (~10g for poly from the necklace, ~8g for The Cure, ~3g for Soul Conductor, ~23s for the mini, ~6g for the brew) . Obviously some of the common mats and consumables I obtained could also be sold for some additional gold, but I doubt they'd be worth anywhere close to 60g. Selling the bags and then buying whatever you want with the gold is definitely the way to go.

>

> Definitely needs to include the candy corn. A stack is ~70s which is like 3 of the mini.

Assuming you get on average about 3 to 4 candy corn per bag (based on the silveress numbers), 1500 ToT bags would give somewhere between 4500 to 6000 cc, or 18 to 24 stacks. @70s each, that is somewhere between 12.6g to 16.8g. It helps, but it's still a long ways from making up the 60g difference.

 

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> @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> I've opened all the bags I've farmed but that's because this is my first Halloween in GW2 and I need the Candy Corn. I figure I must have opened 1500bags or so since Tuesday, as I don't spend more than an hour at a time running Lab, but of those bags, as well as the large bags from completing dailies, I've so far received:

>

> 1 x Gift of Spiders

> 1 x Gift of Souls

> 1x Pumpkin Smasher

> 1x Vassago

> 1x Mini Charles the the Hellfire Skeleton

> 3x Polysaturating Reverberating Infusion (Red)

>

> Given the bags sell for about 5-7 silver, just selling one of those Infusions is more of a profit than if I had sold all the bags farmed so far.

 

I've gotten 2 poly reds from 54k bags, you're very lucky. User experience may vary lol

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