BL Keys Finally On Sale — 20% Off (Plus Caveats)

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Astral Projections.7320" said:

> Sale ending soon (less than 24 hours)

> **Black Lion Chest Key** 1@ ~~125~~ 100 gems. 5@ ~~450~~ 359 gems. 25@ ~~2100~~ 1680 gems

 

Reminder: the BL Key is a lottery; the vast majority of people will get nothing worth the cost, and only a tiny, tiny fraction will get something interesting to them (and even fewer will get the big jackpot). These are best bought purely for the entertainment of anticipating the possibility that you might get lucky (spoiler alert: you won't).

 

I've collected data from over 3000 keys (posted by various players at different times in the last year or so). Consistently, only 9 out of 100 drops contain an uncommon drop, only 1 contains a rare drop (and none included one of the super rare drops). Some odds:

 

* From 100 keys, [the chance of receiving 5 or fewer uncommon drops is over 5%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+100+trials,+less+than+6+successes), i.e. someone we know is going to be very unlucky.

* From 'only' 25 keys, the chance of [not receiving any uncommon drops is over 7%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+25+trials,+less+than+1+successes).

 

tl;dr buy for the joy of opening (if that's not worth 100 gems, don't spend gems on them)

[Turkeyspit.3965]


 

 

10chars

[Danikat.8537]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Astral Projections.7320" said:

> > Sale ending soon (less than 24 hours)

> > **Black Lion Chest Key** 1@ ~~125~~ 100 gems. 5@ ~~450~~ 359 gems. 25@ ~~2100~~ 1680 gems

>

> Reminder: the BL Key is a lottery; the vast majority of people will get nothing worth the cost, and only a tiny, tiny fraction will get something interesting to them (and even fewer will get the big jackpot). These are best bought purely for the entertainment of anticipating the possibility that you might get lucky (spoiler alert: you won't).

>

> I've collected data from over 3000 keys (posted by various players at different times in the last year or so). Consistently, only 9 out of 100 drops contain an uncommon drop, only 1 contains a rare drop (and none included one of the super rare drops). Some odds:

>

> * From 100 keys, [the chance of receiving 5 or fewer uncommon drops is over 5%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+100+trials,+less+than+6+successes), i.e. someone we know is going to be very unlucky.

> * From 'only' 25 keys, the chance of [not receiving any uncommon drops is over 7%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+25+trials,+less+than+1+successes).

>

> tl;dr buy for the joy of opening (if that's not worth 100 gems, don't spend gems on them)

 

Also it's probably not worth buying gems with gold to get them now as the price has shot up (as it always does when keys are on sale) and it's unlikely to be cheaper than buying them later on when the price of gems has dropped.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Danikat.8537" said:

> Also it's probably not worth buying gems with gold to get them now as the price has shot up (as it always does when keys are on sale) and it's unlikely to be cheaper than buying them later on when the price of gems has dropped.

Oh good point. I forgot to compare apples to apples.

 

Using just the 1680 per 25 keys discount (2100 retail)

* 682 gold retail **before** March Madness: 400 gems cost ~130 g

* 735 gold retail **during** March Madness: 400 gems cost ~140g

* 684 gold 'discount' **currently** with 400 gems running at 163g

 

So it's not really a discount until the exchange rate drops below 155g/400 gems.

[Trise.2865]

That's 20% off, not 25%. Though the 5-pack is one gem less than 20% off.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Trise.2865" said:

> That's 20% off, not 25%. Though the 5-pack is one gem less than 20% off.

 

Right, 20%, just like it says at the top... (¬_¬)

(in other words: thanks for pointing out the typo :) — fixed!)

[Bloodstealer.5978]

So.. why does it state under the sale price a normal price would be 5/625.. that's utter rubbish. It has always been 5/450gems without discount.

They are playing off the 1 key price .. bad practice is bad.

[phokus.8934]

> @"Bloodstealer.5978" said:

> So.. why does it state under the sale price a normal price would be 5/625.. that's utter rubbish. It has always been 5/450gems without discount.

> They are playing off the 1 key price .. bad practice is bad.

Yeah this is pretty ridiculous that they’d do this. But a discount is a discount.

 

 

[Ok I Did It.2854]

After watching the way the drops have been steadily getting worse over the months from the chests, ( my last 50 keys didnt give anything outside of common ) i would recommend only ever buying keys when on offer, as its clear the drops are worse than ever from the BLCs.

 

Also its strange the BLCs did not get an update this week for when the patch went live.

[MoriMoriMori.5349]

I don't consider anything less than 50% "a discount", sorry :) That's what years of purchasing games on Steam do to you.

[Khisanth.2948]

On the other hand this is probably a great time to buy the dyes that come from the dye kits currently in the BLC or the BL weapon skins. Even if not everyone buying keys are going to use them immediately there should still be more than usual being opened.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Bloodstealer.5978" said:

> So.. why does it state under the sale price a normal price would be 5/625.. that's utter rubbish. It has always been 5/450gems without discount.

> They are playing off the 1 key price .. bad practice is bad.

 

That's how they've always done it. It's technically true and at the same time useless for making an informed decision.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Ok I Did It.2854" said:

> After watching the way the drops have been steadily getting worse over the months from the chests, ( my last 50 keys didnt give anything outside of common )

[The chance of getting 0 uncommon or better from 50 keys is 0.5%](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%25+chance+of+success,+50+trials,+less+than+1+successes) — just bad luck, not even extraordinarily bad.

 

> i would recommend only ever buying keys when on offer, as its clear the drops are worse than ever from the BLCs.

As you can see from above, that's only better if you convert gold to gems well before the discount. Otherwise it can be worse or barely different.

 

>

> Also its strange the BLCs did not get an update this week for when the patch went live.

Not at all. The chest changed with the Warclaw on the 5th of March, so it hasn't been 4 weeks yet.

 

Of the 25 'seasonal' chests since ANet started the practice, there was a 4-5 week break for 10 of them and the median is 28 days. So it's much more likely the next new BL chest will drop on the 9th, when update-watchers predict the next content patch will happen.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> On the other hand this is probably a great time to buy the dyes that come from the dye kits currently in the BLC or the BL weapon skins. Even if not everyone buying keys are going to use them immediately there should still be more than usual being opened.

 

Indeed.

[Blude.6812]

One guaranteed drop is WvW specific. I grabbed a few keys but will wait to open until the next change in drops occurs.

[Khisanth.2948]

> @"Blude.6812" said:

> One guaranteed drop is WvW specific. I grabbed a few keys but will wait to open until the next change in drops occurs.

 

The item also applies to PvP. The potion gives 250 points of progress in your current PvP **and** WvW reward. Great way to get some of the exclusive items from those modes for the people who do not like them.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> The item also applies to PvP. The potion gives 250 points of progress in your current PvP **and** WvW reward. Great way to get some of the exclusive items from those modes for the people who do not like them.

80 potions are needed to max a reward track, so for those with deep pockets, a mere ~5400 gems (today) is enough to get someone their Gift of Battle without stepping foot in WvW.

 

[Bloodstealer.5978]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Bloodstealer.5978" said:

> > So.. why does it state under the sale price a normal price would be 5/625.. that's utter rubbish. It has always been 5/450gems without discount.

> > They are playing off the 1 key price .. bad practice is bad.

>

> That's how they've always done it. It's technically true and at the same time useless for making an informed decision.

 

Its technically true because they base it off what 5 single keys would cost.. that is not what they state in the normal sales practice. It is shady at best to make it look better than it is.. the saving is 20% yes and that's cool, but the way its marketed is not imo.

[Strider Pj.2193]

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > The item also applies to PvP. The potion gives 250 points of progress in your current PvP **and** WvW reward. Great way to get some of the exclusive items from those modes for the people who do not like them.

> 80 potions are needed to max a reward track, so for those with deep pockets, a mere ~5400 gems (today) is enough to get someone their Gift of Battle without stepping foot in WvW.

>

 

And enough to quote when the random person says: ‘I wish I could just buy my GoB’.

 

?

[Fenom.9457]

I always wanted to save up hundreds of dollars and buy like 500 keys when they were on sale just for the heck of it. Maybe next year...

[Rico.6873]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > @"Blude.6812" said:

> > One guaranteed drop is WvW specific. I grabbed a few keys but will wait to open until the next change in drops occurs.

>

> The item also applies to PvP. The potion gives 250 points of progress in your current PvP **and** WvW reward. Great way to get some of the exclusive items from those modes for the people who do not like them.

 

This, it helps in getting the warclaw for the people who don't do WvW or very little WvW, the pvp part is a bonus in my eyes

[Lambent.6375]

Aw, I missed it.

[Khisanth.2948]

> @"Rico.6873" said:

> > @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > > @"Blude.6812" said:

> > > One guaranteed drop is WvW specific. I grabbed a few keys but will wait to open until the next change in drops occurs.

> >

> > The item also applies to PvP. The potion gives 250 points of progress in your current PvP **and** WvW reward. Great way to get some of the exclusive items from those modes for the people who do not like them.

>

> This, it helps in getting the warclaw for the people who don't do WvW or very little WvW, the pvp part is a bonus in my eyes

 

Just make sure you have the correct reward tracks set before using them :p

[OutOfOrder.3719]

Well the odds are different for new players vs veterans.

 

On my alt account which I have never bought keys for before, I got both the Exalted shoulders and the New glider/backpack from only 21 keys.

 

But on my main account, it usually takes 37 keys and sometimes 63 keys to get the unique BLC exclusive item.

 

I suppose I could have just been extremely lucky on the alt account, but typically 1 uncommon drops every 10-15 keys. 10 being normal versus 15 being unlucky,

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"OutOfOrder.3719" said:

> Well the odds are different for new players vs veterans.

No, there's no evidence that this is so. Everything we've seen so far points to odds being identical across accounts. ANet claims this is so; all the data collected to date is consistent with that claim; and there are no large data sets showing any distinction between one type of account on another.

 

> On my alt account which I have never bought keys for before, I got both the Exalted shoulders and the New glider/backpack from only 21 keys.

>

> But on my main account, it usually takes 37 keys and sometimes 63 keys to get the unique BLC exclusive item.

>

> I suppose I could have just been extremely lucky on the alt account, but typically 1 uncommon drops every 10-15 keys. 10 being normal versus 15 being unlucky,

 

Yes, it's likely that you'll get one uncommon every 10-15 keys. And, as noted above, it's not that unusual to go through much longer streaks without getting any.

 

There are two "rolls" to get the 'unique'

* Uncommon drop: roughly 10% chance.

* If uncommon, then you also have to get the 'unique', which is one of 19-22 uncommon drops, so maybe that's a 5% chance (or perhaps 10% if the odds aren't exactly even, and the data we have so far can't rule that out).

 

As noted above, there's even a 0.5% chance someone can open 50 chests without getting an uncommon (or better) drop.

 

****

The odds don't care if you're a veteran or new to the game, if you've bought keys a lot or not.

The one thing we do know: _the odds are **never** in our favor_.