Daddicus.6128

There really is a secret to Siren's Reef on the boat:

Target the trash before the bosses. And switch back to the trash when new ones arrive.

Trash spawns a lot, but they don't RE-spawn. Once dead, they don't come back. The ones that come on a clock will still come, but that was going to happen anyhow. Kill them, and you have the boss alone for around thirty seconds at a time.

Yeah, there are other rules (like bring the green circle to your team, but run the red circle away), but the trash-first rule tops them all. Do it, and the bosses are easy to kill. Don't do it, and you will wipe on tier four unless you have a coordinated and/or very good team.

NOTE: It's perfectly fine to pull the trash to the boss and use AOE on them both. But, the trash needs to be the party's priority, not the boss.

> @"Mysticjedi.6053" said:

> DPS meters are good for groups who want to clear content fast because they either;

> A. Think speed equals skill

> B. Have a limited okay window and want to go through materials they have already done for the joy of it, without teaching it

>

> Typically I look for semi exp groups when I have plenty of time and don't care as I do not expect them to use DPS meters. I like for exp. groups when I am in a rush and expect my DOS to be monitored.

>

> If you are concerned about not hitting benchmarks play Druid, Healbrand, or Chrono. Their dogs sucks, but that isn't why they brought. Just keep everyone else alive and boon'd up and life is good.

Or my favorite, a condi minion reaper who specializes in breakbar-breaking, boon-stripping, and being alive long enough to rally (or even revive) other teammates. He has miserable DPS (except in end-case situations where he switches to greatsword.) But, interrupting Ensolyss in his big windup is SUCH a great feeling that I really don't care what others think about my DPS. Or, my all-time favorite: killing Firestorm while downed and all of the other four players are defeated. But, that only happened once. Interrupting Ensolyss happens more frequently.

> @"Lan Deathrider.5910" said:

> ... DPS is not the end all be all. ...

>

This. This is THE most important fact about fractals, and there are a very high percentage of players who simply can't understand that. I avoid any group whose advertisement says "DPS" in it unless there are no other options.

> @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:

> > @"VDAC.2137" said:

> > I haven’t joined a PUG fractal group since then, which is my loss as I more often have had good experiences... :pensive:

>

> You are correct, that this is your loss. So why do that to yourself? Because some tool said something stupid in a fractal a while ago? Tools happen. Stupids things being said will happen. If you can learn from criticism, do so. But if it's just noise, leave the group and march. I promise you that tool is still out there playing in fractals, so why shouldn't you?

>

>

>

He fought to a boss fight. He deserves the right to finish it. Why people who die can consider themselves entitled enough to kill the still-living person is the real question. They've already proven themselves inferior to the still-fighting player.

> @"VDAC.2137" said:

> It’s not just in raids. I joined a fractal group via LFG already in the middle of a boss fight and several people down. I tried to simultaneously clear adds and work on getting people up but was not able to turn the tide. I was then told flat out that based on my DPS I was ****. :( No reason to argue or wait to be kicked. Now that situation in particular I did not go in trying to do my max rotation on the boss — what would have been the point??? But knowing that I my numbers are being watched and monitored... I know I am not the best but I think I pull my weight and I’m always working on improving... Anyway, I haven’t joined a PUG fractal group since then, which is my loss as I more often have had good experiences... :pensive:

Look for lfg requests with the word chill or casual in them. (Or, something similar.) There ARE people who abuse even those, but it's a much smaller population.

No, it was real. Not since the 1960s has it been a problem, but it was before that. The ability to cheat is why casinos switched to electro-mechanical slots in the 60s. Those could still be cheated, but it was orders of magnitude harder.

By the 90s, slots were almost universally digital, and thus unable to be cheated (except by the owners or maintenance people).

But, this in't relevant to this thread. :)

Because my age prevents me from having good enough reflexes to be competitive.

Also, because I don't like my character dying. Yes, it happens everywhere, but I can control it a lot better in PvE.

> @"Excursion.9752" said:

> On launch day I opened 25 chests got 5 skins and a Glyph along with the new Dragon Back/glider Item.

> Rng is Rng last time I opened 25 chests I got only one skin and that was it. I've started to count to 3 before I open the next one because most RNG is based of system time so I give it a second to change a little haha.. Its just in my head I think.

:)

It's interesting: casinos used to have this very problem when they were mechanical. Some people could time their slot-machine spins and raise their odds.

Electronic slot-machines don't have that issue, but now people don't trust them.

> @"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

> > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > "Statistically significant" is an imprecise term in an already-imprecise science. But, there is a concrete definition to the fuzziness:

> "subtracting three times the standard deviation" is used to answer the question: what's the likelihood that the rate we see is the actual rate

>

> That's a different question than: "if we know the drop rate, what's the chance that this outcome would occur?" That chance is 38k:1, which is horrible luck. It's entirely human when suffering awful luck to presume that means that the odds are worse now. The bettor's belief that the odds are rigged isn't, by itself, evidence.

>

> The problem with using the OP's data set is: we already know that (whatever the truth is) the OP's results involve bad luck. So it's not a representative sample. That's because the OP didn't come to the forums (or the wiki) to state their results every other time they opened 100; they only presented them today. That data is self-selected; it's not 100% random any more.

>

> Note further that the very first response is from someone getting 3 uncommon from just 10 chests.

> (edit: and note again: many other people have gotten average and better than average results from their small data sets)

>

> The best way to check is to collect as much data as possible. Over the last 18 months or so, I've done as best I can with that, scouring reddit & youtube for people who show _all_ their data from a single set, hopefully of 250 or 500 keys (just because it's a pain to document, each individual having very unique presentation styles).

> I don't have any from this particular chest. For the ones I do have (four sets with the last 18 months), the odds have remained the same: 10% chance of uncommon or better.

>

> If anyone has links to full results, I'd be happy to add them to my collection. And, as always, I'll report on the data I have, not how I'd like to see it.

>

> Until then, the evidence I see doesn't support the claim that the odds have changed significantly.

I agree. And, it would be important, if the numbers were run, that ALL data be included.

The wiki famously has this issue in reverse: rate info pages have to warn people to only go there with all their data (or all over a time span). If they only come to report really nice (or, in this case, really bad) drops, it skews the data.

What I do is decide whether I'm going to add it to the data set BEFORE I open whatever container it is.

But, I understand probability and statistics, so I know how to not bias the data. Not everybody does, unfortunately. "Ooooh, I got a permanent bank contract. I think I need to report this data." :(

That's why I asked. I'm hoping they answer.

> @"Haleydawn.3764" said:

> "This event runs from 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time (UTC-7) on June 11 to 1:00 a.m. Pacific Time (UTC-7) on June 25. **After this time period, condensed ley-line essence can be purchased with gaeting crystals from Glenna in Ahdashim or from the Magnetite Exchange Operative in the Lion's Arch Aerodrome.**" ~ [The patch notes.](https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/79154/game-update-notes-june-11-2019 "The patch notes.")

Yeah, I know. Which is why I did not ask whether they were for sale. Rather, I asked whether they were going to do it again. I never raid, so I can't earn gaeting crystals.

"Statistically significant" is an imprecise term in an already-imprecise science. But, there is a concrete definition to the fuzziness:

Statistically significant can only be stated if one also states the level of significance. If the number of data points outside the confidence limits is high, then it is called significant.

Unfortunately, I can't totally recall the formulas any more (it's been over 40 years since I took those classes.) But, I think Excel can calculate them.

* Put the counts per 100 into a column.

* Use the STDEV.P function over that range of cells.

* Multiply by 3.

* Get the average (of the same range of cells) with the AVERAGE function.

* Subtract three times the standard deviation value from the average.

If that number is greater than zero, the rates may indeed have dropped. There is a 0.3% chance that they did not. More likely, though, your calculations will end with a number less than or equal to zero, which means it's still in the realm of normal.

Example: I used a set of values including an 8, 9, two 10s, two 11s, and a 12. The std. dev. is 1.25. Three times the std. dev. is 3.74 The average is 10.14. The difference is 6.41, a positive number.

Then I changed one of the 10s to a 4 and one of the 11s to a 16. This changed the numbers to 3.42, 10.27, 10, and -0.26, respectively. Thus, a zero value was outside that tight range I created, but inside the range when only two data points were changed.

In other words, the first example would show a way-higher-than 99.7% chance that something changed. The second example is "normal", even though only two numbers changed.

This was a great event and concept. Unfortunately, I didn't realize the process until the last four days, which wasn't enough time to get them all. I got seven, but I would really like to complete the set.

ArenaNet, can you please let us know if you intend to bring this event back?

> @"Doggie.3184" said:

> I accidentally salvaged mine with salvage all command and ended up sending a support ticket and they mailed it back to me.

Me, too. In fact, they mailed it about 10 minutes ago. I was very happy.

But, I also then deleted the stuff I got when I salvaged it. They didn't ask me to, but I figured it was only fair.

> @"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:

> Oh, really! I got 3 of the Shiny Weapons from the Djinn Energy boxes. Thought they were probably somewhat common.

Well, in 2073 attempts recorded on the wiki, there were five shiny weapons and four ultras. But, that's probably just random chance. Still, I'm counting my blessings. :)

Edit: Oh, and two of those nine were mine.

Yeah, this is just a public service announcement. I got seriously burned by it, so I figure let others learn from my mistake.

I did open a ticket, because account-bound really-hard-to-get items simply shouldn't be available to salvage all. I imagine broken Caladbog could be accidentally salvaged, too. Or, there are probably others that fit the model.

It's interesting: I got this one from a drop from the djinn energy consumable. It's the only one (so far) in the Wiki's drop research page. So, the odds of getting it back are pretty low, especially given the event ends today. :(

One can salvage shiny weapons. The game treats them as normal rare items, despite them being almost irreplaceable.

If you get one from any source, put it in an invisible bag or your bank, where it can't be auto-salvaged along with the rest of your rare loot.

They have to add something to use up spare cabbage, because the coleslaw offerings are annoying. Maybe if the price went up to, like 1g each, this guy will stop doing it.

I like this idea.

Being able to wear the titles Champion of the Gods (for maxing out the points in Guild Wars 1) and Fractal Savant (a purchased title that requires a LOT of play time in Fractals.)

They tried to make harder zones when they released Heart of Thorns. The game suffered so badly they had to relax some of the difficulty.

So, my vote is NO WAY!

OK, looks like I misunderstood it as applying more deeply than it does.

I found my own answer. No, they didn't code it correctly to Windows' standards. There IS a control menu, but you can't get to it with alt-spacebar.

But, Windows 10 apparently has a feature where you can shift-right-click to see the control menu. Emergency avoided. Defibrillator not needed. Cancel the 911 call. :)

Every program that creates a window in MS Windows is supposed to have a control menu. It's usually hidden, but can be accessed by clicking in the far upper-left corner of any window. Things on it are minimize, maximize, restore, etc.

Some programs don't have one of these. I would like someone to check to see if the Guild Wars 2 window has one. **If so, can you make it pop up by clicking alt-spacebar?**

My Guild Wars 2 window is off of my screens to the right. For any other program, I click alt-spacebar and it appears, even if I can't see it. Then I click M (to move) and hit arrow keys until it wanders onto the correct screen. But, Guild Wars isn't working.

> @"Stalkingwolf.6035" said:

> > @"Daddicus.6128" said:

> > I like the idea of shared slots, too. However, there aren't anywhere near enough of them. I only have one free, and I have to work pretty hard to keep that one open.

>

> they are highly overpriced.

> i have 7. Pass, Salvage Copper, Salvage Silver, LW teleport book and 3 for the unIDs .

> maybe 2 or 3 more would be nice, but IMO they are to expensiv

I can agree with you there. But, as a self-confessed packrat, I find them handy enough to pay. I would even pay more for later ones. Say if they charged 1000 for numbers 25-30 or something, it would fly out of my (digital) wallet.

But, I certainly understand not wanting to pay the high price. Most people do a better job of managing their inventory than I do.