BLC Drop Rate

[tampss.2540]

Hello,

 

So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

Seems like a big scam for me.

[Grand Marshal.4098]

I lost my shit when I got the free key and chest from the Trade Post the previous day and got the Vermillion Greatsword skin lol. My only rare drop in 2 years playing btw.

 

So yeah it's like gambling-bad.

[crepuscular.9047]

why we get this type of post every time Anet refreshes BLC? it's all RNG, sometime you are lucky sometimes you arent

[yoni.7015]

> @"tampss.2540" said:

> Hello,

>

> So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> Seems like a big scam for me.

 

It’s a scam because you didn’t get what you wanted? It’s RNG, why do so many people have a hard time understanding it?

 

 

[tampss.2540]

> @"yoni.7015" said:

> > @"tampss.2540" said:

> > Hello,

> >

> > So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> > Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> > Seems like a big scam for me.

>

> It’s a scam because you didn’t get what you wanted? It’s RNG, why do so many people have a hard time understanding it?

>

>

 

Uncommon items have way too low drop rate - that's why I think it is a scam.

[yoni.7015]

> @"tampss.2540" said:

> > @"yoni.7015" said:

> > > @"tampss.2540" said:

> > > Hello,

> > >

> > > So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> > > Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> > > Seems like a big scam for me.

> >

> > It’s a scam because you didn’t get what you wanted? It’s RNG, why do so many people have a hard time understanding it?

> >

> >

>

> Uncommon items have way too low drop rate - that's why I think it is a scam.

 

I used my free key and got an uncommon item, so it’s no scam.

 

 

[Greg.7086]

> @"tampss.2540" said:

> Hello,

>

> So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> Seems like a big scam for me.

 

1) No the rates are not lowered, this is just normal. Uncommon means "Uncommon" so 3 Uncommon drops from 66 keys I would say is just average "RNG"

 

2) Sure you will hear/see a player that spams in Map Chat that from 1 x Key they got the Cape or Fluffy Griffon, but so what ? : That's RNG. What you don't see in map chat is all the masses of players that get the ordinary average RNG loot as they don't broadcast it.

 

3) RNG is simply RNG: You take a Gamble, in that I would advise anyone to "only gamble what you can afford to lose", Ofc you might have some miracle RNG luck but the odds are stacked against you and chances are you won't have luck.

 

4) My Personal Advice for: Plush Griffon: i) Do your weekly keys runs for free key, ii) Do your map completions over for chance of key, i.e. in-game free key, but if that's not worked or you can't be bothered, straight up purchase it for 1600 Gems from Gemstore. The cost for 25 BLC keys is 2,100 Gems and there is absolutely no guarantee you will get the mount skin, nor the cape, or even any drop past Common.

 

5) My Personal Advice for cape: i) Be patient! - Eventually it will come on NPC 60 Black Lion Statues in a few months and far more economical to buy it then. Again save all your keys dropped free in-game, keep doing those weekly key runs, save from map completions. Use the keys ( I save them specifically for either when i) You get extra Black Lion statues as a guaranteed drop and/or when the weapon skins are on their first rotation in BLC ( so rarer, more costly to save them to sell outside of BLC rotation) Save your statues in bank.

 

6) I definitely wouldn't advise any player to spend IRL Money specifically to buy BLC keys from Gemstore as this only encourages Anet to keep offering them. It's not a co-incidence that Anet advertises on their Gemstore Home Page under "Featured Items" >>> Black Lion Keys when they change the BLC rotation ! Don't get sucked into this marketing tactic to lure you to splash out your cash on keys and then complain afterwards when you don't get something good. Loot box mechanics are designed with Anet as the sole financial winners ! Better to >>> Don't purchase the keys, don't encourage their practice. OR if you're fine with buying them, accept beforehand that you may very well end up with uesless junk, and nothing else but a hole in your pocket.

 

7) Patience is the KEY - In future if something glitzy, shiny comes out in BLC try the above methods, bide your time, be patient, and it will save you in the long run in both gems, gold, and frustration. Good luck for future shinies!

[Danikat.8537]

As other people have said it's random and that means some people will get bad luck, just like some get good luck. If you want to you can find typical drop rates for the chests online, as well as topics like this with someone reporting using a similar amount of keys with no luck whenever new chests come out.

 

This is one reason I never buy keys, I know I'd end up wasting far more money than is reasonable for the items I want if I don't get lucky. When I use free keys more often than not I look at what I got and think I'm glad I didn't pay for it.

 

> @"Jilora.9524" said:

> Buy the Griffon and cape next time instead of using the scam you knew about and wasting 66 keys. That way you can't get scammed. Rng is rng. You were unlucky while 20 dudes will run in here or announce in map chat I got this on my free key etc.

 

Annoyingly you can't buy the cape, the nearest you can get is using 60 black lion keys to get statuettes and then waiting for it to be available that way. For some reason it's only the mount skins they put in the gem store at the same time as offering them in chests.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

You are now guaranteed to acquire the cape, should you choose to, by exchanging 60 Black Lion Statuettes at a later time.

No scam.

[Memoranda.9386]

Well, drop rates must not be too bad since I got the griffin skin and the cape, and a torch skin out of 4 rolls?

 

Don't you mind the fact that it took me 75+ tries to get the last two items I wanted out of chests.

[IndigoSundown.5419]

> @"tampss.2540" said:

> Hello,

>

> So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> Seems like a big scam for me.

 

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

 

As shown on the Wiki, the drop rate for uncommons is 0.078. That's 7.8%. That means that the average for 66 keys used would be a hair over 5 uncommon items. The thing about averages, though, is in order for it to _be_ average, those who get an uncommon on the first key will be counterbalanced by others getting a lower than average number. It would be poor luck indeed to open 100 chests and get zero uncommon drops, but that is not impossible.

 

If that drop rate is too low for you, then don't patronize keys. The drop rate is such as it is so that players as a whole _will_ -- on average -- spend _more_ than they would be willing to pay for a given item than they'd be willing to pay straight up for that item. For the record, though, it's not a scam. While ANet does not publish the drop rates, those rates are known and the info is available. It would only be a scam if ANet promised something better than what is on offer -- and they aren't promising you anything other than that certain items are available _if you get lucky_.

 

This is by no means me defending the practice. While it is not a scam, it is exploitive and predatory. I only ever open them with free keys.

[Sobx.1758]

Gambling is gambling, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but you definitely should EXPECT to lose. If you can't afford it, don't gamble.

[lokh.2695]

It's always the same. BLC-Keys are gambling. Don't gamble if you can't handle the loss. Don't buy keys if you don't want to gamble. Don't buy the keys if you don't want gambling to be part of the game. Vote with your wallet. Yada yada yada. See you next time this topic gets discussed, i.e. when the chests get their next update..

[Vrath.1754]

Like always its all rng including the gift key I opened 6. Got the cape/glider on key 2, key 6 got another rare it was a full BL weapon ticket. So IDK seems just like normal to me.

 

Sometimes you roll the hard six.

[Shadowmoon.7986]

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. If you would stop spending money on preditory monization, anet would stop using them. For the cost of 66 key, you could have bought 3 mounts.

[Wolfb.7025]

Took me 53 keys to get the cape. and I got only the cape as rare drop (not counting the weapon skins that I didn't want and I sold on tp).

 

Good thing for me is that iIdo keyfarm and keep keys for when I want a rare item from chests.

[Obtena.7952]

> @"tampss.2540" said:

> > @"yoni.7015" said:

> > > @"tampss.2540" said:

> > > Hello,

> > >

> > > So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> > > Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> > > Seems like a big scam for me.

> >

> > It’s a scam because you didn’t get what you wanted? It’s RNG, why do so many people have a hard time understanding it?

> >

> >

>

> Uncommon items have way too low drop rate - that's why I think it is a scam.

 

It's well documented what these drop rates are and as a consumer, it's your responsibility to understand the goods and services you are purchasing. The question is: Why are you buying BLC's if you already think it's a scam to begin with?

 

The answer is: You know you are taking that chance to get something really great. These threads are just sour grapes when people don't get things they think they should get.

 

I mean, even knowing what the chances are to get something ... how would that impact your willingness to get keys? I'm going to say that most people don't have the advanced math background to even use the drop rate information properly to make a purchasing decision.

[MesmerizedNYC.2479]

My luck with BLC uncommons is always proportional to how much I hate something. If I hate it enough, I get it. Like the horse head staff recently and that awful fire chair. (my tastes mind you) The second I saw the preview of either I was viscerally revolted. Within 5 keys .... I got them both. I've never gotten anything I really want in 8 years lol. Hoping that changes for this round of map completes. The new Cape is amazing.

[Danikat.8537]

> @"MesmerizedNYC.2479" said:

> My luck with BLC uncommons is always proportional to how much I hate something. If I hate it enough, I get it. Like the horse head staff recently and that awful fire chair. (my tastes mind you) The second I saw the preview of either I was viscerally revolted. Within 5 keys .... I got them both. I've never gotten anything I really want in 8 years lol. Hoping that changes for this round of map completes. The new Cape is amazing.

 

Why not save your keys until the account bound rare drops are something you really like, or at least don't mind getting?

 

Everything else in the chests is either tradable (meaning you could just buy it from the TP if you want it) or available for much longer so you're not likely to miss out if you wait until those items are ones you like, and then you don't get stuck with something you can't stand.

[Cyninja.2954]

I haven't seen an uncommon or higher drop in over 70 (used some I had stored, bought some and then bought some more, used some more from key farming where I get 2-3 per week doing the season 2 mission and Dry Top map completion) chests since the Vermillion Greatsword was added, yet I have been lucky in the past and gotten mounts or uncommon drops in just a few chests.

 

It's RNG. If you don't want to gamble, don't gamble.

 

BLC keys are not worth the investment and never have been. That's not news.

[Blude.6812]

> @"crepuscular.9047" said:

> why we get this type of post every time Anet refreshes BLC? it's all RNG, sometime you are lucky sometimes you arent

 

True, but some believe that their RNG is manipulated in Anets favor, or it is broken and there are outlier accounts that will get SFA.

[Shadowmoon.7986]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > @"tampss.2540" said:

> > > @"yoni.7015" said:

> > > > @"tampss.2540" said:

> > > > Hello,

> > > >

> > > > So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> > > > Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> > > > Seems like a big scam for me.

> > >

> > > It’s a scam because you didn’t get what you wanted? It’s RNG, why do so many people have a hard time understanding it?

> > >

> > >

> >

> > Uncommon items have way too low drop rate - that's why I think it is a scam.

>

> It's well documented what these drop rates are and as a consumer, it's your responsibility to understand the goods and services you are purchasing. The question is: Why are you buying BLC's if you already think it's a scam to begin with?

>

To be honest the drop rates are NOT documented. There are attempts by individuals to determine what "uncommon", "rare" , "super rare" actually means, but again even those classification vary depending on the container. If you go to reddit there are containers with 100s of thousand of sample sizes that show items classified as rare actually having drop rates closer to uncommons and vica vera. Also items classified in the same category do not have the same drop rates. Again preditory practices, not an issue of sour grapes.

And we are talking about the game where most players do not even know what break bars are or what skills cause cc damage. The honest truth is most players can not responsibly decode what the drop rates actually mean using only ingame resources. I would question how many even know how to use the preview function to get those drop rates.

Now if proper droprates were documented somewhere by the only people who actually know them, Arenanet , then you would have an arguement that these suckers should have known better. But because it is purposefully obscured behind multiple layers of misinformation, the system is predatory, and targets probably the less knowledgeable members of the game.

 

 

[Hesione.9412]

It's even more complicated:

1. for a certain probability a 5th item will be included

2. sometimes, with no 5th item, you get another 2 statuettes, which are basically currency. This gives you three times the currency you would expect. You have your own value for this currency.

3. guaranteed unlocks are affected by what is already unlocked in your account. Sometimes the unlock is for a skin that cannot be valued, for example a dungeon skin.

 

The drop rate calculations then appear to be incredibly complicated. Added into the mix are account-influenced drops. I don't know just how accurately the drop rates, and therefore average blc value, could be estimated.

[Khisanth.2948]

uh ... 25 keys cost 2100 gems

plush griffon skin is 1600 gems

 

you could have spent less and gotten what you want, why did you go and take the risk?

[Obtena.7952]

> @"Shadowmoon.7986" said:

> > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > > @"tampss.2540" said:

> > > > @"yoni.7015" said:

> > > > > @"tampss.2540" said:

> > > > > Hello,

> > > > >

> > > > > So far I have bought 66 BLC Keys and used them.

> > > > > Drops are not so good as for 66 keys I have only 3 uncommon drops(no griffon fluff or cape dropped...) - is it kind of joke or the rates have been lowered somehow?

> > > > > Seems like a big scam for me.

> > > >

> > > > It’s a scam because you didn’t get what you wanted? It’s RNG, why do so many people have a hard time understanding it?

> > > >

> > > >

> > >

> > > Uncommon items have way too low drop rate - that's why I think it is a scam.

> >

> > It's well documented what these drop rates are and as a consumer, it's your responsibility to understand the goods and services you are purchasing. The question is: Why are you buying BLC's if you already think it's a scam to begin with?

> >

> To be honest the drop rates are NOT documented. There are attempts by individuals to determine what "uncommon", "rare" , "super rare" actually means, but again even those classification vary depending on the container. If you go to reddit there are containers with 100s of thousand of sample sizes that show items classified as rare actually having drop rates closer to uncommons and vica vera. Also items classified in the same category do not have the same drop rates. Again preditory practices, not an issue of sour grapes.

> And we are talking about the game where most players do not even know what break bars are or what skills cause cc damage. The honest truth is most players can not responsibly decode what the drop rates actually mean using only ingame resources. I would question how many even know how to use the preview function to get those drop rates.

> Now if proper droprates were documented somewhere by the only people who actually know them, Arenanet , then you would have an arguement that these suckers should have known better. But because it is purposefully obscured behind multiple layers of misinformation, the system is predatory, and targets probably the less knowledgeable members of the game.

>

I'm not arguing if the system is predatory ... any player in this game understands BLC's are random in loot with drop rates that decrease as the rarity increases, likely similar to the rarities of the same categories in other game content. Not actually knowing the numbers is irrelevant to the argument that it's unfair because those numbers, whatever they are ... are the same for EVERYONE. Transparency of the drop rate numbers is certainly not necessary to make key purchasing decisions ... because the system is random to begin with. Even if you knew the numbers, you still won't know if you will get something specific. Certainly not knowing them isn't a reason for people to brush off their own responsibility to understand what they are purchasing when they get keys.

 

In short, people need to accept the risk associated with paying for random chance gear. Those people not knowing how isn't a reason to excuse them. They know enough to post on the forum to complain about it ... so they are perfectly aware there are players out here that might be able to answer questions they have regarding drop rates.

 

The fact is that anyone buying BLC's with the intention of obtaining something specific aren't doing their homework ... a simple ask is all it would take. Once again ... if people are buying keys, the EXPECTATION people should have is that they are going into a random drop situation; they aren't guaranteed ANYTHING except for the two slots you can see populated in the chest.