When is next Expac?

[Applejuice.4083]

Anyone know any updates if a new expac is in the works? I'd love to see Cantha. Or an entire underwater map. I personally love underwater combat. It's something a lot of games don't incorporate and helps the game feel real.

[Dante.1763]

Not till after season 5 at a bare minimum, and we still have one more episode(more than likely) after this upcoming season 4 episode.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

We definitely have 2 more Episodes in Season 4 upcoming (Dev statement on Guild Chat), and all of Season 5, however many Episodes that may entail, before an expansion may be released. I'd expect 1 to 2+ years away.

[Elric.4713]

No earlier than 2020 is my guess. I'm so sick of the desert hopefully they continue to slowly move us away from it with upcoming living world episodes.

[Cyninja.2954]

Probably in 2020.

 

Living World Season 4 Episode 5 comes in early January. Season 4 will likely end with Episode 6, given a 2-3 month development cycle this puts this release at end of April or beginning of May.

 

This would put Season 5 at sometime in August or September which would correlate with past expansion releases. Giving the developers about 1 year for 4-5 more Episodes for Season 5 and a possible 3rd quarter 2020 expansion release, if this is planed.

 

There has been no confirmation on any future expansions yet.

[Danikat.8537]

However, there's absolutely no reason they couldn't add an underwater map or maps in Cantha or anything else as part of the Living Story instead of as an expansion.

 

Companies will typically save the biggest/most excited features for paid expansions rather than giving them away free because otherwise it's highly unlikely anyone would pay for the expansion. But if Anet thinks they're getting enough money from the gem store and they don't need to make an expansion they have no reason to hold stuff back to include in one.

 

I think an underwater map is unlikely because underwater content gets a mixed reaction at best,. Some people really love it, some are ok with it but a lot of people really don't like it and will go out of their way to avoid it as much as possible. So if they released a new underwater map I think they'd have a lot of people either avoiding it or complaining that they're "forced" to play on it.

 

Cantha could happen however, That's just a matter of Anet deciding it's the right setting for the story they want to tell.

[sorudo.9054]

it seems like they're going east so, we'll see.

[zealex.9410]

My guess would be mid to late 2020. If se5 is again another delayfest then we might even see a 2021 release.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

It's going to be a long time before an expansion — if the pattern from the last 3 years holds, it's going to be coming up on another 3 years. (But... it's probably a mistake to assume that an ANet pattern will hold for six years total.)

 

****

##### The known facts.

LS3 was 6 episodes. LS4 will be six. Let's assume LS5 will also be six (although we have no information about it). LS3 launched 26 July 2016, about 9 months after HoT's October 2015 opening. PoF began 22 Sept 2017, about 14 months after LS3 began. LS4's first episode came with the 28 November update. and LS4.5 will launch on 8 January. In other words, (by January) the 39 months since HoT began will have included 11 Living World episodes and an expac, roughly one "story" every 3.3 months.

 

##### Napkin Speculation

If that pattern were to hold, then it will be another ~28 months to complete LS 4 & 5 (7 episodes total, at 3.3 months each) and another ~4-5 months for an expac (again, assuming that's ANet's plan). That's getting close to three years.

 

##### Counter-speculation

On the other hand, it's not really safe to assume that software development patterns hold for six years, and it's even less safe to assume that in gaming. The more important considerations are: what does ANet need to do to attract enough fresh blood into the game? What are their mid- and long-range plans? For how long can gem shop sales sustain the salaries of 300+? And a half dozen other concepts for which we won't have data enough with which to speculate.

 

So I'm going to speculate based on a single data point: ANet has frequently surprised us in the past. A short list of things we didn't see coming include: any expansion at all, raids, mounts, legendary armor, and ~~the Spanish Inquisition~~ (ok, nvm, no one ever expects that). I predict that they'll find some way of jump starting enthusiasm from non-veterans, in some way that we can't predict. Maybe it will be an expansion _during_ the LS5 cycle, maybe just before. Or maybe it will be some other sort of new content-for-a-fee.

[maddoctor.2738]

Maybe they won't HAVE to release an expansion again. They said Season 5 will follow after Season 4. Season 5 might be their first living world season that actually looks and feels like an expansion. If it succeeds we won't see another expansion, if it fails, well back to expansions we go.

[Ayakaru.6583]

Didn’t they say LS5 willhave some big stuff worthy of an expansion?

Or the expansion is taking so long because its changing mad stuff in the engine like how uw combat and exploration works

[otto.5684]

> @"Applejuice.4083" said:

> Anyone know any updates if a new expac is in the works? I'd love to see Cantha. Or an entire underwater map. I personally love underwater combat. It's something a lot of games don't incorporate and helps the game feel real.

 

I am expecting that next episode will finish Elona and Kraltorric. Next LS will also be 5 episodes, 3 month apart. The we will finally get the next expansion. This is an 18 month time frame, with next expansion releasing in May/June of 2020.

 

Where will we go next? Hard to tell. Anet jammed in Balthazar in LWS3 for no reason. Then made PoF story about him (which was terrible).

[Khalisto.5780]

They've been releasing every 2 years, so I assume next will be september 2019

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

> @"Khalisto.5780" said:

> They've been releasing every 2 years, so I assume next will be september 2019

 

They haven't been releasing "every 2 years." There have been two expansions in six years. There's no "pattern" yet, because we've only had one expansion since ANet swapped from an unpredictable schedule to one with any sort of regularity at all.

 

It's not crazy to predict September 2019 as the next expac's release date, but it's not remotely safe to assume it will be.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

> @"otto.5684" said:

> > @"Applejuice.4083" said:

> > Anyone know any updates if a new expac is in the works? I'd love to see Cantha. Or an entire underwater map. I personally love underwater combat. It's something a lot of games don't incorporate and helps the game feel real.

>

> I am expecting that next episode will finish Elona and Kraltorric. Next LS will also be 5 episodes, 3 month apart. The we will finally get the next expansion. This is an 18 month time frame, with next expansion releasing in May/June of 2020.

>

> Where will we go next? Hard to tell. Anet jammed in Balthazar in LWS3 for no reason. Then made PoF story about him (which was terrible).

 

The Devs have stated there will be six Episodes in Season 4.

[Edelweiss.4261]

It feels like the next expansion is still years away. :(

[Hybarf Tics.2048]

Here's my take on it, living world has 3 teams I think says Wooden Potatoes. Expansions are from a different team.

Officially season 4 episode 5 is January 8th 2019. If we do defeat Kralkatorrik then we move to season 5 by the end of April 2019.

If we fail at episode 5 then April 2019 is episode 6 maybe at the Kourna volcano.

After those 2 possibilities, I see episode 1 of season 5 as a prelude or hype train to the 3rd expansion. There's nothing preventing Anet from launching an expansion between episodes especially if the episode in question is used as a teaser showing which direction the expansion is going.

So if we end season 4 with Kralkatorrik death and season 5.1 in April then you could see the expansion as early as August's 7th GW 2 anniversary.

This would make it almost 2 years since POF, which would be more than reasonable by most standard. Remember the first expansion took 3

years and everyone was a bit upset to say the least. I think Anet will try to shorten that, as a matter a fact they did.

Hot over 3 years, October 23, 2015.

Pof not even 2 years later, September 22, 2017.

3rd expansion could also be under 2 years, August 2019.

There is nothing in the cards that says it can't be released in between 2 episodes.

5.1 prelude to expansion pack 3 coming April 2019.

Xpack 3 coming August 2019.

Crossing fingers. Remember Anet did regret and realized as we did that 3 years was too long for most fans.

Also a season doesn't have to be 6 episodes long, I also like very much my idea of an episode being used as a preview or hype train to an XPACK. :o B)

[otto.5684]

> @"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:

> > @"otto.5684" said:

> > > @"Applejuice.4083" said:

> > > Anyone know any updates if a new expac is in the works? I'd love to see Cantha. Or an entire underwater map. I personally love underwater combat. It's something a lot of games don't incorporate and helps the game feel real.

> >

> > I am expecting that next episode will finish Elona and Kraltorric. Next LS will also be 5 episodes, 3 month apart. The we will finally get the next expansion. This is an 18 month time frame, with next expansion releasing in May/June of 2020.

> >

> > Where will we go next? Hard to tell. Anet jammed in Balthazar in LWS3 for no reason. Then made PoF story about him (which was terrible).

>

> The Devs have stated there will be six Episodes in Season 4.

 

Did they? Do you know when the announced that?

[Cyninja.2954]

> @"maddoctor.2738" said:

> Maybe they won't HAVE to release an expansion again. They said Season 5 will follow after Season 4. Season 5 might be their first living world season that actually looks and feels like an expansion. If it succeeds we won't see another expansion, if it fails, well back to expansions we go.

 

Not sure, they might try but expansions and big releases are what makes news and hits the gaming news outlets. No one cares about periodic game content releases. Unless you are maybe a DLC for a Souls game or such huge titles.

 

The reason to eventually focus on an expansion (even if it were the exact same content just bundled up a bit) is that it would create buzz. That's on top of the revenue from expansion sales to cover the development cost at least.

[Zaklex.6308]

> @"otto.5684" said:

> > @"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:

> > > @"otto.5684" said:

> > > > @"Applejuice.4083" said:

> > > > Anyone know any updates if a new expac is in the works? I'd love to see Cantha. Or an entire underwater map. I personally love underwater combat. It's something a lot of games don't incorporate and helps the game feel real.

> > >

> > > I am expecting that next episode will finish Elona and Kraltorric. Next LS will also be 5 episodes, 3 month apart. The we will finally get the next expansion. This is an 18 month time frame, with next expansion releasing in May/June of 2020.

> > >

> > > Where will we go next? Hard to tell. Anet jammed in Balthazar in LWS3 for no reason. Then made PoF story about him (which was terrible).

> >

> > The Devs have stated there will be six Episodes in Season 4.

>

> Did they? Do you know when the announced that?

 

Reaching the end of Ep. 3 was the mid-point of the season, then the second half starts with Ep4 and needs to go to Ep 6 for the end of Ep. 3 to be considered the midpoint, if however, Ep. 3 itself was the midpoint of LW4 then Ep. 5 would be the last episode...I just don't think they've had enough time to properly make a Kralkatorik ending with Ep. 5, instead I see that as being the entire focal point of Ep. 6. The whole thing is speculation on our part though since they don't make a habit of releasing their plans.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

It was on a recent Guild Chat. The Devs explicitly talked about working on Episode 5 and Episode 6.

[Ashantara.8731]

> @"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:

> We definitely have 2 more Episodes in Season 4 upcoming (Dev statement on Guild Chat)

 

That's what @"Dante.1763" said: one more after the upcoming one.

 

> @"Applejuice.4083" said:

> Anyone know any updates if a new expac is in the works?

 

No one does except for ANet.

[Klipso.8653]

They said after season 5

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

> @"Ashantara.8731" said:

> > @"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:

> > We definitely have 2 more Episodes in Season 4 upcoming (Dev statement on Guild Chat)

>

> That's what @"Dante.1763" said: one more after the upcoming one.

>

> > @"Applejuice.4083" said:

> > Anyone know any updates if a new expac is in the works?

>

> No one does except for ANet.

 

He/she said "more than likely"; I said it was confirmed by Devs.

[Lord of the Fire.6870]

In theory S4 will end in fall 2019 but they can extend this as far they like or make a S5 .

How we came to this we know we have at least 3 more episodes which brings us into august 2019 then 3 months later we have fall. The episodes came from the missing 3 singularities which eat stuff (if they do it like S3 also means another legendary PS: Devs my obsidian shards overflowing) also we missing 3 more special mount skills on the right side which came from the new mastery which means 3 more of of it.

 

But seems I can scrape it because there should have been an announcement by now if they want to release in 2019. Maybe fall 2020. I also though they will have make 2 more expansions which also means S5 many an S6 to warp everything up but with this delay everything is a bit fogy.

 

About something beyond this like Gw3 they need to look into what kind of engine they want to use shortly before they start to building the last expansion. I'm nearly sure to overwork the existing one is the way to go. Another problem is gw2 spaghetti code and version control issues while I would leave the engine in C I would use for the game logic and model C++ to avoid this