NCsoft 4Q 2018 earning

[Obtena.7952]

Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

[Khisanth.2948]

> @"DanAlcedo.3281" said:

> **Openworld/story**

> Like always. An update every 3 month for (at max) 2 weeks of content.

>

>

> Alot of players ( me included) are just not Motivated to play right now.

>

> The Balance Patch is a decision point for me.

>

 

LS maps last closer to 1 month.

 

Maybe the balance team went to join the dungeons team ....

[Malediktus.9250]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

 

they only make so much profit because they use unethical / predatory monetization strategies (even worse than the usual asia MMO) and not because they offer anything of quality

[Obtena.7952]

> @"Malediktus.9250" said:

> > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

>

> they only make so much profit because they use unethical / predatory monetization strategies (even worse than the usual asia MMO).

 

Sure ... but that doesn't stop them from making that money or any other company from capitalizing on it. The bottomline is that the threat to PC MMO's aren't other PC MMO's ... it's mobile platform.

[Opopanax.1803]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

 

This is what I took away too. Anet needs to make a mobile game if they want to survive.

 

I just hope that Anet makes it with the depth of GW1 in that it will play well on tablets, or a chromebook, or maybe even HTML5 browser. There is no reason they couldnt have a great gameplay game like GW1 for mobile.

[Malediktus.9250]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > @"Malediktus.9250" said:

> > > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > > Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

> >

> > they only make so much profit because they use unethical / predatory monetization strategies (even worse than the usual asia MMO).

>

> Sure ... but that doesn't stop them from making that money or any other company from capitalizing on it. The bottomline is that the threat to PC MMO's aren't other PC MMO's ... it's mobile platform.

 

but it would be risky to focus on just one business, since more lootbox laws could come at any time. plus even this market will eventually become saturated. so any business that is worth being called a business will see that making mobile games and pc games is not mutually exclusive

[BlueJin.4127]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

 

I have never been, nor will I ever worry that mobile gaming will kill hardcore gaming. It's just not gonna happen. Mobile games and hardcore games are not mutually exclusive, just like there are different sports, different smartphones, different entertainment, etc. If games become 10 times more popular than movies, for example, movies will not die. Also, multiplatform gaming companies think of mobile as extra projects (just like how they make PC AND console games), not replacements. That's because they know mobile games and hardcore games cater to different crowds and they'll want to make more money covering all audiences. And since there are limited audiences for each platform, making 10 mobile games isn't necessary a better decision than making less games covering multiple platforms. It's also cheaper to port existing games to other platforms than making 10 new games for just one platform.

 

What I am concerned about, is move to streaming and games as a service. These are things many game companies actively want to switch.

 

In any case, according to the report, mobile games make up 53% of sales. According to wiki, there are currently 8 PC games (including GW1 from 2005 and Aion from 2009) and 6 mobile games. There are currently 7 titles in development, covering PC, mobile, and consoles.

[Obtena.7952]

> @"BlueJin.4127" said:

> > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

>

> I have never been, nor will I ever worry that mobile gaming will kill hardcore gaming. It's just not gonna happen. Mobile games and hardcore games are not mutually exclusive, just like there are different sports, different smartphones, different entertainment, etc. If games become 10 times more popular than movies, for example, movies will not die. Also, multiplatform gaming companies think of mobile as extra projects (just like how they make PC AND console games), not replacements. That's because they know mobile games and hardcore games cater to different crowds and they'll want to make more money covering all audiences. And since there are limited audiences for each platform, making 10 mobile games isn't necessary a better decision than making less games covering multioke platforms.

>

> What I am concerned about, is move to streaming and games as a service. These are things many game companies actively want to switch.

>

> In any case, according to the report, mobile games make up 53% of sales. According to wiki, there are currently 8 PC games (including GW1 from 2005 and Aion from 2009) and 6 mobile games. There are currently 7 titles in development, covering PC, mobile, and consoles.

 

You should be because it won't kill it, but it will compete for resources within a game company, or the industry at large. If you still want a variety of high quality PC-based MMO's being released to the market using the latest tech, mobile gaming is a serious threat to that.

 

I don't get the idea that there is a concern about moving to games as a service ... the structure of GW2 as a business is fundamentally a service already.

[BlueJin.4127]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> You should be because it won't kill it, but it will compete for resources within a game company, or the industry at large. If you still want a variety of high quality PC-based MMO's being released to the market using the latest tech, mobile gaming is a serious threat to that.

>

> I don't get the idea that there is a concern about moving to games as a service ... the structure of GW2 as a business is fundamentally a service already.

 

No, I really shouldn't be because I used to work at a game company and have more knowledge in this area. :smile: If companies want more mobile projects, they'll hire more people to cover more projects. They don't just switch around a fixed number of employees and resources, nor do they want to remain small. They try to expand up to what they think they can handle since bigger companies generally make more. It doesn't mean it'll have 0 effect on hardcore gaming resources, but it's really not something to worry about. There's also the fact that games, their platforms, and means of controlling games will evolve. In years, we could very well be playing hardcore games on mobile devices (or whatever new devices that exist then) just as happily as we're doing on PC now.

 

As for gaming as a service, this is a concern for offline games. Rather than companies releasing a game and having the customer pay $60 to own it, companies think charging a monthly subscription is better way to continue receiving money. There's also the issue of piracy that's pushing for this. Games as a service would really kill piracy. And for a customer, it's not just the cost of sub based streaming that's a concern. There's lag and general bandwidth limit. ISP's already don't like their customers streaming too much. Having gamers stream constantly (and games will require better image quality than movies) could up cost of internet service, for example.

 

Of course, I could very well be worrying about nothing. As games evolve they will be different. People could very well be needlessly worrying about how current set ups will work in the future, when the future will have a completely different set up than now.

 

EDIT - OMG, I apologize for the constant edits. I'm just trying to figure out how to best get the point across without a wall of text.

[wickedkae.4980]

I also have stopped buying stuff from the store. A complete lack of items that add value to my experience is the main issue. Why is it so hard to add AWESOME looking costumes. Seriously, Anet artists, go steal designs from some other mmos. It is clear the art team is too tame.

 

Also, the lack of end game content that is not raiding is a huge issue. Why is Anet wasting resources on raids, when you could adding in new systems that keep ALL players interested and moving forward? I do not understand the leadership for this game. There needs to be a serious shake up. It is 2019 and we still don't have an official companion app? Are you kidding me?

[DanAlcedo.3281]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > @"DanAlcedo.3281" said:

> > **Openworld/story**

> > Like always. An update every 3 month for (at max) 2 weeks of content.

> >

> >

> > Alot of players ( me included) are just not Motivated to play right now.

> >

> > The Balance Patch is a decision point for me.

> >

>

> LS maps last closer to 1 month.

>

> Maybe the balance team went to join the dungeons team ....

 

Most Lw updates are less then a week ok content for me, while doing everything the patch has to offer.

 

It only lasts longer if there are heavy timegates.

Like this episodes Branded Mass grind and the Dwarven Chest AP.

[Linken.6345]

> @"wickedkae.4980" said:

> I also have stopped buying stuff from the store. A complete lack of items that add value to my experience is the main issue. Why is it so hard to add AWESOME looking costumes. Seriously, Anet artists, go steal designs from some other mmos. It is clear the art team is too tame.

>

> Also, the lack of end game content that is not raiding is a huge issue. Why is Anet wasting resources on raids, when you could adding in new systems that keep ALL players interested and moving forward? I do not understand the leadership for this game. There needs to be a serious shake up. It is 2019 and we still don't have an official companion app? Are you kidding me?

 

Why do we need a companion app we dont have any companions.

[Masculus.4817]

Feels like the game is beholden to a model of monetization that does not work. Overall the prices are steep and the value of the product low. Most disappointingly the game itself is going nowhere, it does not improve in any way. Too much legacy and new, pointless content dragging it down.

 

One thing that bothers me a bit is how the game runs like shit and nothing is adressed in terms of performance and/or the ageing aspect of the game. It does not inspire confidence in it's future.

[Ayrilana.1396]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

 

You’re right! The report does show mobile revenue outperforming PC revenue. Perhaps we will get a GW3 soon... on mobile. I mean, don’t we all have phones?

[Solvar.7953]

While mobile may be a big market, I'm not going to play an MMO or other RPG on my phone. Hopefully, some companies will always see there is some market for PC/Console based games, and it may just mean that I end up moving to those games if that is the only option.

For me personally, I occasionally buy gems because I do want to support the game I play. However, I've never spent any money on a cosmetic item, which is what the bulk of the items they sell are. I've spent some money on convenience items (shared inventory slots, extra bank space, permanent tools). But I'm pretty much maxed out/don't need any more of those.

I imagine cosmetic items are simplest for them to offer - you need the graphic artist to design them, but probably not much more than that. Convenience features may require actual development work.

At this point, I'm not sure what they could offer in terms of convenience that I would buy.

 

[Khisanth.2948]

> @"DanAlcedo.3281" said:

> > @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > > @"DanAlcedo.3281" said:

> > > **Openworld/story**

> > > Like always. An update every 3 month for (at max) 2 weeks of content.

> > >

> > >

> > > Alot of players ( me included) are just not Motivated to play right now.

> > >

> > > The Balance Patch is a decision point for me.

> > >

> >

> > LS maps last closer to 1 month.

> >

> > Maybe the balance team went to join the dungeons team ....

>

> Most Lw updates are less then a week ok content for me, while doing everything the patch has to offer.

>

> It only lasts longer if there are heavy timegates.

> Like this episodes Branded Mass grind and the Dwarven Chest AP.

 

By "last" I meant the amount of time they are capable of maintaining a reasonable population not how long it can keep me busy/in that map. That should be a more relevant metric for ANet.

 

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

 

if that is the only motivation then they should just drop PC games altogether and switch to consoles.

 

> @"Linken.6345" said:

> > @"wickedkae.4980" said:

> > I also have stopped buying stuff from the store. A complete lack of items that add value to my experience is the main issue. Why is it so hard to add AWESOME looking costumes. Seriously, Anet artists, go steal designs from some other mmos. It is clear the art team is too tame.

> >

> > Also, the lack of end game content that is not raiding is a huge issue. Why is Anet wasting resources on raids, when you could adding in new systems that keep ALL players interested and moving forward? I do not understand the leadership for this game. There needs to be a serious shake up. It is 2019 and we still don't have an official companion app? Are you kidding me?

>

> Why do we need a companion app we dont have any companions.

 

Continued improvement to the API would have been more useful anyway.

[zealex.9410]

> @"Khisanth.2948" said:

> > @"DanAlcedo.3281" said:

> > **Openworld/story**

> > Like always. An update every 3 month for (at max) 2 weeks of content.

> >

> >

> > Alot of players ( me included) are just not Motivated to play right now.

> >

> > The Balance Patch is a decision point for me.

> >

>

> LS maps last closer to 1 month.

>

> Maybe the balance team went to join the dungeons team ....

 

If you play one hour a week then sure.

[zealex.9410]

> @"Masculus.4817" said:

> Feels like the game is beholden to a model of monetization that does not work. Overall the prices are steep and the value of the product low. Most disappointingly the game itself is going nowhere, it does not improve in any way. Too much legacy and new, pointless content dragging it down.

>

> One thing that bothers me a bit is how the game runs like kitten and nothing is adressed in terms of performance and/or the ageing aspect of the game. It does not inspire confidence in it's future.

 

I agree with mostt points but the pricings, idk i hagent found anet to be too expensive compaired to other companies.

 

I especially agree with the optimisation side of things, ppl might like this game but x years down the line they wont be playing it because it runs like crap.

[Mea.5491]

The biggest "problem" is that Anet gives away DLCs (living world episodes) for free and allows Gold to Gems exchange. Sure, it's good for us but bad for them. Not many MMO devs are this generous for obvious reasons... Anet is basically throwing money out the window.

[Cyninja.2954]

> @"BlueJin.4127" said:

> > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > You should be because it won't kill it, but it will compete for resources within a game company, or the industry at large. If you still want a variety of high quality PC-based MMO's being released to the market using the latest tech, mobile gaming is a serious threat to that.

> >

> > I don't get the idea that there is a concern about moving to games as a service ... the structure of GW2 as a business is fundamentally a service already.

>

> No, I really shouldn't be because I used to work at a game company and have more knowledge in this area. :smile: If companies want more mobile projects, they'll hire more people to cover more projects. They don't just switch around a fixed number of employees and resources, nor do they want to remain small. They try to expand up to what they think they can handle since bigger companies generally make more. It doesn't mean it'll have 0 effect on hardcore gaming resources, but it's really not something to worry about. There's also the fact that games, their platforms, and means of controlling games will evolve. In years, we could very well be playing hardcore games on mobile devices (or whatever new devices that exist then) just as happily as we're doing on PC now.

 

Yes, because that's what is happening right now at Activision/Blizzard, or EA. They are hiring more staff while working on both, PC games and mobile... oh wait, the opposite, they are reducing non developer staff while at the same time shifting focus internally to mobile (to lazy to look up the official statement which stated that a lot of senior Blizzard devs are working on Diablo mobile, I can if you want me to).

 

Meanwhile, there is not a day which goes by where some game releases or a developer tries to release which has heavy monetization via lootboxes or rng. Apex Legends just now? Anthem in a couple of days? Division 2 next month? Battlefield 5 last year?

 

You might not care, but mobile devices and the monetization model used on them has already had a very altering effect on the PC gaming (and to some extent console) development. The only reason any of the lootbox approach has taken a small break is due to the massive backlash against Star Wars and possible legislation reducing maximum expected return.

 

 

> @"BlueJin.4127" said:

> As for gaming as a service, this is a concern for offline games. Rather than companies releasing a game and having the customer pay $60 to own it, companies think charging a monthly subscription is better way to continue receiving money. There's also the issue of piracy that's pushing for this. Games as a service would really kill piracy.

 

While I do not condone video game piracy, the move to games as a service model is certainly not due to piracy. It's due to continued revenue from a product and the microtransactions which go along with it. There is maybe a couple of games which were affected heavily by piracy (Crysis and it's sequels were some of the heaviest hit) and in general it affects offline games more). But with digital platforms like Steam making more and more of the sales, the issue is definitely not as big as to be the main reason for live service. It's the assured revenue stream.

 

> @"BlueJin.4127" said:

> And for a customer, it's not just the cost of sub based streaming that's a concern. There's lag and general bandwidth limit. ISP's already don't like their customers streaming too much. Having gamers stream constantly (and games will require better image quality than movies) could up cost of internet service, for example.

 

Yeah, no. While twitch and other streams might cause some bandwidth demand, the vast majority goes to video streaming and movies. Aside from maybe 1 time yearly seasonal events like League finals or such, games aren't even on the radar right now.

 

From October 2018:

http://fortune.com/2018/10/02/netflix-consumes-15-percent-of-global-internet-bandwidth/

 

Youtube and Netflix both make up around 50% of the global bandwidth usage in the US, probably higher now since the article is from 2014 and Netflix has had a lot of growth since then, plus Amazon Prime and Youtube also expanded: https://www.forbes.com/sites/quickerbettertech/2014/11/24/netflix-and-youtube-now-consume-50-of-the-internet-as-the-argument-for-net-neutrality-weakens/#280ffb2f36e6)

 

EDIT: now I'm not the bleak the world is doomed kind of guy, but to dismiss mobile development as a serious contender for resources is very wishful thinking I believe.

[Zaklex.6308]

> @"Opopanax.1803" said:

> > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

>

> This is what I took away too. Anet needs to make a mobile game if they want to survive.

>

~snip~

 

Not true, as long as income exceeds expenses then the company survives...or perhaps it gets to the point that NCSoft no longer wants ArenaNet and puts them on the block(offers the company for sale), or...there are numerous other possible outcomes that could result. Only if the decline in revenue continues and they start making less money than they're spending will there be a problem.

 

[zealex.9410]

> @"Mea.5491" said:

> The biggest "problem" is that Anet gives away DLCs (living world episodes) for free and allows Gold to Gems exchange. Sure, it's good for us but bad for them. Not many MMO devs are this generous for obvious reasons... Anet is basically throwing money out the window.

 

Actually gold to gems and vice versa doesnt lose them money as the gems are bought by players in the first place.

 

Tho the content be free in it of itself plays a part in its quality/quantity. Theres an arguement to be made that other games which charge for the content are able to provide more or less for their players.

[zealex.9410]

> @"Zaklex.6308" said:

> > @"Opopanax.1803" said:

> > > @"Obtena.7952" said:

> > > Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

> >

> > This is what I took away too. Anet needs to make a mobile game if they want to survive.

> >

> ~snip~

>

> Not true, as long as income exceeds expenses then the company survives...

>

 

Its human nature to want more and go for more, the mobile market could make them crazy amount of money far beyond their expenses.

 

I mean look at the reccent layoffs in acti-blizzard. The ceo is boasting record sales but the company laidoff 800 ppl because they didnt "meet their potential" of profit.

 

Apparently getting to keep your job in the game's industry goes beyond just exceeding expenses.

[Danikat.8537]

> @"Obtena.7952" said:

> Y'all are missing the real concern from that graph ... the sum of all of the PC game revenue barely adds up to the mobile game revenues. If a game dev company can make an order of magnitude more bux by switching platform ... they would be crazy to not do so. Admittedly, I don't know how many games are in that 'mobile' part of the graph, but that's the biggest concern to me.

 

Two things to consider:

 

1) This is NCSoft's report, not Anets. NCSoft own a number of studios (including Anet) and therefore several games but Anet _only_ have Guild Wars 2. The only other game they've ever made is Guild Wars 1. So making a mobile game would be a huge shift for them, requiring not just new technical skills but a new way of thinking about design and monetisation. (And importantly Anet operate largely independently of NCSoft, I'm not sure of the exact involvement but I know Anet have said NCSoft don't make any decisions about what goes on in GW2 so they certainly couldn't order the studio to start developing a new game.)

 

2) Making a profitable mobile game is not remotely as easy as it might seem. Remember when World of Warcraft was released and suddenly everyone was jumping on the band wagon -trying to throw together an MMO to cash in on the "next big thing" and make the same kind of money? How many of those games even broke even? How many are still around? Mobile games are the same with 1000 times as much competition. The market as a whole makes a lot of money, but the vast majority of that goes to a tiny, tiny number of games, and then often for just a short time. The vast majority will never make any profit, and may even lose their developers money, even if they're good quality games.

 

Here's a couple of articles on it:

This one reports that the median lifetime revenue for developers is $3,000: https://smallbusiness.chron.com/average-revenue-iphone-game-60261.html

And this one explains why (short version: you have to spend vast amounts on marketing and hope it pays off): https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/24/your-chances-of-making-a-successful-mobile-app-are-almost-nil/

 

This is probably why NCSoft groups all their mobile games together. On their own the vast majority of games will probably make so little profit it's not even worth mentioning, but when you add them all together it becomes a profitable sector.

[Tiviana.2650]

The engine is old and it shows even on new rigs. If they did a new expansion they would need a new engine because this one isnt optimized and performs badly. I mean how old is dx9 now? 2002? Even wow that behemoth of a game 14 years old has been updated to dx12, framerates are smoother , the pc runs easier and it looks better with a higher dx.

 

Another thing is graphic clutter, it has been said time and again there is too much visual noise in combat.