BLC exclusive item droprates warning

[Lan Deathrider.5910]

I bought 25 keys, got the torch, a keepsake GS, and a keepsake Shortbow. Nice skins, can't wait to sell them in 4-6 months.

[Shadowmoon.7986]

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. The biggest shame, you should only buy 60 keys at most for an item you want, if you dont get it, stop and wait for it to appear in the statuette vendor.

But don't worry anet is happy you gave them over a year worth of sub fees and gave you nothing.

[Teratus.2859]

> @"Dante.1763" said:

> > @"Teratus.2859" said:

> > 135 USD.. on Black Lion Keys...

> >

> > I seriously hope you're joking, I love Gw2 and I want the game to make money but that is just insane man.

>

> Hey if its disposable income and doesnt actually put a persons lively hood at risk why judge where they spend their money? They could have easily as dropped more than that on a single W40k model which alot of people think is silly, or even legos, maybe pkmn/magic/yugioh cards..

>

>

 

It's the RNG factor.

If it were something else like skins or expansion or something like that I wouldn't have said anything, but lootboxes..

That's a lot to drop on essentially gambling mechanics.

 

In general I don't like the unhealthy culture around gambling and lootboxes, specially when people can drop a lot of cash like this and essentially walk away with nothing.

Gw2 does lootboxes a significantly better than most others games do which isn't hard considering most games are straight up predatory with them, but I'd still advise caution about dropping too much on them, specially if your after a single specific item.

I guess you could say i'm of the mindset that if you put this kind of money into something then by all rights you should have it.

Paying 4x the price of a full expansion pack just for a single skin and not getting it can't feel good.

 

I feel bad they didn't get the skin they wanted specially for that investment..

I hope they don't regret wasting the money or feel like they were cheated.

[Danikat.8537]

> @"Thereon.3495" said:

> Personally I'd like to see BL chests introduce the same mechanic you have with the Gift of Aurene in the Mistborn chests. Every x keys gives you a choice of item per BL reward rotation. If that number is 50...100 keys so be it, at least you know you'll get what you want within that amount of keys. Or, as has been previously mentioned, put all the decent rewards in the Statuette vendor at some point as opening 50/100 chests you'll have the statuettes free anyway.

>

> I don't personally gamble in games with real world currency but have a store of earned keys waiting for that special prize. I did get lucky not long ago with a premium mount box on my 2nd of 5 spent keys but for every one of me there's one unlucky soul at least.

 

That's exactly how the statuettes work. Sooner or later all the exclusive items from the chests are available for statuettes, so if you don't get it from the chest you can save up and get it that way.

 

It's not a great system because of how expensive many of the items are (typically 60 statuettes for one of the 'uncommon' exclusive items) but it's better than nothing. I don't think it's at all coincidental that statuettes were added right around the time public opinion was turning against loot boxes in games. It gives Anet a justification for saying it's not completely random because there's a back-up option if you wait long enough.

 

(Personally I preferred the old system where all the drops were tradable so you didn't have to gamble at all if you didn't want to because you could just buy it from someone who got it and didn't want it, but I guess that lead to fewer key sales. Chests were certainly a lot cheaper on the TP back then.)

[GummyBearSummoner.7941]

Don’t worry. I spent about $200 on keys & haven’t gotten luck yet. But save your statues because I’m sure it will be added to the vendor soon

[Aridon.8362]

Thank you for supporting the game.

[Dante.1763]

> @"Teratus.2859" said:

> > @"Dante.1763" said:

> > > @"Teratus.2859" said:

> > > 135 USD.. on Black Lion Keys...

> > >

> > > I seriously hope you're joking, I love Gw2 and I want the game to make money but that is just insane man.

> >

> > Hey if its disposable income and doesnt actually put a persons lively hood at risk why judge where they spend their money? They could have easily as dropped more than that on a single W40k model which alot of people think is silly, or even legos, maybe pkmn/magic/yugioh cards..

> >

> >

>

> It's the RNG factor.

> If it were something else like skins or expansion or something like that I wouldn't have said anything, but lootboxes..

> That's a lot to drop on essentially gambling mechanics.

>

> In general I don't like the unhealthy culture around gambling and lootboxes, specially when people can drop a lot of cash like this and essentially walk away with nothing.

> Gw2 does lootboxes a significantly better than most others games do which isn't hard considering most games are straight up predatory with them, but I'd still advise caution about dropping too much on them, specially if your after a single specific item.

> I guess you could say i'm of the mindset that if you put this kind of money into something then by all rights you should have it.

> Paying 4x the price of a full expansion pack just for a single skin and not getting it can't feel good.

>

> I feel bad they didn't get the skin they wanted specially for that investment..

> I hope they don't regret wasting the money or feel like they were cheated.

 

i agree with you on how unhealthy they are, id like them to be removed entirely and the items just sold for a flat fee, or even add them to the statuette vendor while making statuettes available for purchase directly. I pesonally spend alot on them as is, but i also want the guaranteed wardrobe unlocks and other items that can drop from them so im always for the most part getting something i want.

 

I will say, if this person is smart they will save the statuettes they got so that in future they can get the item.

[lokh.2695]

So basically, a random drop is random. Well that's interesting.

 

Only gamble if you can afford to lose. And while I would strongly suggest to not feed into these lootboxes, I don't see the point in opening a thread everytime someone gambles and loses.

[Teratus.2859]

> @"Dante.1763" said:

> > @"Teratus.2859" said:

> > > @"Dante.1763" said:

> > > > @"Teratus.2859" said:

> > > > 135 USD.. on Black Lion Keys...

> > > >

> > > > I seriously hope you're joking, I love Gw2 and I want the game to make money but that is just insane man.

> > >

> > > Hey if its disposable income and doesnt actually put a persons lively hood at risk why judge where they spend their money? They could have easily as dropped more than that on a single W40k model which alot of people think is silly, or even legos, maybe pkmn/magic/yugioh cards..

> > >

> > >

> >

> > It's the RNG factor.

> > If it were something else like skins or expansion or something like that I wouldn't have said anything, but lootboxes..

> > That's a lot to drop on essentially gambling mechanics.

> >

> > In general I don't like the unhealthy culture around gambling and lootboxes, specially when people can drop a lot of cash like this and essentially walk away with nothing.

> > Gw2 does lootboxes a significantly better than most others games do which isn't hard considering most games are straight up predatory with them, but I'd still advise caution about dropping too much on them, specially if your after a single specific item.

> > I guess you could say i'm of the mindset that if you put this kind of money into something then by all rights you should have it.

> > Paying 4x the price of a full expansion pack just for a single skin and not getting it can't feel good.

> >

> > I feel bad they didn't get the skin they wanted specially for that investment..

> > I hope they don't regret wasting the money or feel like they were cheated.

>

> i agree with you on how unhealthy they are, id like them to be removed entirely and the items just sold for a flat fee, or even add them to the statuette vendor while making statuettes available for purchase directly. I pesonally spend alot on them as is, but i also want the guaranteed wardrobe unlocks and other items that can drop from them so im always for the most part getting something i want.

>

> I will say, if this person is smart they will save the statuettes they got so that in future they can get the item.

 

I'm the same when using keys too though I rarely buy them (admittedly I have bought a couple for the torch but didn't get it either)

I prefer to just buy items directly too, recently bought that toxic cape for my Sylvari characters and am sitting on 300 gems atm until I can save up enough gold to buy another 150, I might buy 5 keys with that although if I don't get anything good outta it i'll regret it and wish I'd bought a mount instead haha

 

I do get the occasional good item from them though and I do like statuettes as a backup but I agree some prices are a bit on the high side.

But I couldn't justify spending much on keys..

Skins, mounts etc sure you get what you pay for with them but not RNG lootboxes, it's too risky.

[Randulf.7614]

Doesn't really matter whether it is lowered or not as you have justified them doing it by spending all that money.

 

You are incredibly unlucky Vs a lot of other players though

[Vrita.7846]

I got both the torth and the SAB raptor within 7 keys, both items dropped back to back for me. RNG is RNG. I hate the boxes, but at least there's an option to farm keys via personal story so you don't need to spend money or gold on keys.

[Cobrakon.3108]

It is such a blessing to be super picky with cosmetic items.

[Lottie.5370]

Belgium had the right idea.

 

Gambling is still gambling, even if it's inside a game.

 

> @"Ice Blue Eyes.6420" said:

 

> By the time i realized I have just thrown my 135USD into the rubbish bin.

 

Honestly this should be regulated, but I guess they enjoy making money off of it. The skins should just be put for sale on their own, or not be tied behind RNG boxes that can be opened with real world money.

 

Would be nice if they listed the actual drop rates, though.

[mindcircus.1506]

> @"Coelho Nat.4697" said:

> However, since we all know Anet wont remove the blc random drops,...

As long as there are people who will open up their wallets to the tune of 135 dollars for a chance at a single weapon skin, they won't.

 

[Dante.1763]

> @"mindcircus.1506" said:

> > @"Coelho Nat.4697" said:

> > However, since we all know Anet wont remove the blc random drops,...

> As long as there are people who will open up their wallets to the tune of 135 dollars for a chance at a single weapon skin, they won't.

>

 

I think eventually they wont have a choice. Governments are starting to get involved, more and more as of late.

[Cerioth.7062]

I got the torch after 13 keys. Tough luck.

[Super Hayes.6890]

They put a new shiny in like this and I imagine they expect to see a certain amount of income from key sales as a result. What I don't like is that the statistics in this scenario don't hurt them at all but it absolutely screws over a select few outlier, extremely unlucky, players. I hope they wake up and realize there is a subset of players that are spending zero $$$ on keys that would spend $$$ on the new shiny straight up because we refuse the rng approach. The players that are buying keys to get this item would also spend $$$ to buy it direct. They can still make a lot of money without upsetting any of us!

[kharmin.7683]

But we don't have the actual figures. It could well be that history has shown this method to be the most profitable for Anet.

[Linken.6345]

> @"Super Hayes.6890" said:

> They put a new shiny in like this and I imagine they expect to see a certain amount of income from key sales as a result. What I don't like is that the statistics in this scenario don't hurt them at all but it absolutely screws over a select few outlier, extremely unlucky, players. I hope they wake up and realize there is a subset of players that are spending zero $$$ on keys that would spend $$$ on the new shiny straight up because we refuse the rng approach. The players that are buying keys to get this item would also spend $$$ to buy it direct. They can still make a lot of money without upsetting any of us!

 

Yes but do the ones wanting to buy it straight up outweigh the whales that plop 135$+ each in order to gamble, I think not or they would do that.

[AliamRationem.5172]

That's the thing with gambling and why it works. You want that skin. There's a chance you could have it right now, on your very first key! Just a chance. But it could happen. Or maybe you spend a couple hundred bucks and come up empty-handed.

 

Most players will do the math and logically understand that the odds are not in their favor and they will likely have to spend a considerable amount to get what they want. They might buy a few keys, just like they might buy a lottery ticket now and then. They aren't expecting to win, so it's a nice surprise to them when they get lucky! They also never get burned. Others will abstain on principle. But there are always those special few who are aware of the odds (albeit perhaps not quite as aware as they should be!), but just want to take that chance for the thrill of it (or so they tell themselves). And then the real problem gamblers who will just do it until they run out of things to pawn.

 

The people at ANet likely track a lot of information that they can use to gain some idea of how much players are willing to spend on keys to take a chance at the skins they want and can't get any other way. They likely know about how many players fall into each category. I can only speculate how they determine the drop rates for these items or the price of keys. But the numbers surely point to a simple fact: Key gambling is a money-maker for the game or it wouldn't exist.

 

I don't want to get into the moral implications, policy, etc. I am not saving the world today. So, for now, it's pretty simple: If you don't want to get burned, then don't put your hand in the fire. If you want to operate on the "Can't win if you don't play!" principle, then just limit yourself to a reasonable amount of money that, in your own mind, you are consigning to the toilet. That way if you lose (and you generally will if you are sticking to that reasonable amount!), you won't feel burned. You were already prepared and willing to accept that loss. And if you win, it will be a wonderful feeling because you didn't think you were going to!

 

Edit: Correction. I said that bit about consigning your money to the toilet. That isn't exactly fair. Key gambling serves a useful function. Ultimately, this game needs to make money. It's only ever a question of how. So, while you are making that deal with yourself to a reasonable amount that you are willing to spend, do consider that even if you lose, that money went to support the game that you love (just don't use that as a justification for unchecked gambling, okay??)!

[titje.2745]

i never get a 5th slot, so i dont do weekly key runs every week to avoid dissapointing.

[Julischka Bean.7491]

Darn. I got that Torch with my second or third key..don't remember which.

 

If you have a character that gets good drops in open-world, use that character to open Black Lion chests.

 

They say there is no such thing as a lucky character...but... I am not so sure.

[Khisanth.2948]

Math is awesome ...

 

Lets assume an overly optimistic scenario where every key used gets you a uncommon item such is the case if you used 150 gold black lion keys

There are 20 items in the uncommon category so assuming equal weighing that is a 1/20 chance of getting then torch.

That means a 1-1/20 chance of not getting the torch

The chance of not getting it after 150 keys would be (1-1/20)^150 or 0.045%

Now you might be thinking 0.045% is a very small chance so surely I should have the torch if I open 150 chests and you are not wrong

but if we assume 10,000 people bought 150 keys there will still be around 4 people who do not get the torch after opening 150 chests, you could be one of those 4 people

 

If we go with a less optimistic scenario where the categories might be spread like

common 75%

uncommon 24%

rare .9%

super rare .1%

 

then things take a very unpleasant turn

your chance of getting the torch becomes 1/20 * .24 or 1.2%

the chance of not getting the torch after 150 keys becomes (1-1/20*.24)^150 or 16.35%

and if 10000 people bought 150 keys(that is $1.35 million worth of keys ...) around 1635 of them will not get the torch after opening 150 chests

 

if the probabilities are weighted toward other items in the category then things get even worse

 

That is for setting expectations ... anecdotally the drops do not seem to be too terrible if you are opening the chests without an aim


These are some of the drops I've gotten(in total I have around 1/3rd of the stuff in the [black Lion Exclusives Chest](https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Exclusives_Chest). All the keys are either from map completion, reward tracks or weekly(up to 4 except one week where it was 5) key run. On the other hand some of the items that I am missing are ones that have shown up as drops from BLCs multiple times already.

 

I would never do this but if I were to I would just stop at 60 statuettes(not keys) and if it hasn't dropped by then just wait for it to show up in the statuette vendor.

 

[Shadowmoon.7986]

Honestly, real drop rates would be a nice, not these pseudo drop categories. I remember on reddit did a huge sample size with some sorta container, and some rare items were dropping at higher drop rates than uncommon items. And this makes sense, its a double rng roll, one for the quality of item, and another for which item in the pool. We don't know how weighted each possiblity actually is, i doubt it is equal based on evidence from that study, so a low weighted item in the uncommon pool would actually be less common than a high weighed item in the rare pool.

 

[Vrath.1754]

> @"Lottie.5370" said:

> Belgium had the right idea.

>

> Gambling is still gambling, even if it's inside a game.

>

> > @"Ice Blue Eyes.6420" said:

>

> > By the time i realized I have just thrown my 135USD into the rubbish bin.

>

> Honestly this should be regulated, but I guess they enjoy making money off of it. The skins should just be put for sale on their own, or not be tied behind RNG boxes that can be opened with real world money.

>

> Would be nice if they listed the actual drop rates, though.

 

No thanks. I'd prefer not to have Government, run by old lazy people who have no reall understanding of the issues apply rulings. Did you watch congress question Google? They are clueless about the net and without a doubt gaming.

And once they start who knows how far their overreach goes.

 

Also a concern should be, if Anet or other companies lose that income they will shift the costs to other areas. Likely all cosmetics raise in price to BDO type prices for an outfit. Better to let people with disposable income drop money on keys in a game they spend hundreds of hours playing then prices raise for everyone imho. It doesnt hurt other players.

 

In addition in the US for some states things are swinging to legalizing gambling in particular with the NFL embarrassing gambling states are changing their laws for online gambling not sure how this can be reconciled except the NFL gives the states a kickback.

 

That said what ever happened to personal responsibility? A person should be held accountable, dont have the money dont buy keys. We dont need the gov to hold people's hand cause they cant be responsible or just cause people don't like something or they cant have it.